Virginia outgains WF 3:2, but loses turnover battle 3-0 and loses by 6. Could have easily been a win.
Western Michigan 476-384, 6 (SIX!) turnovers to 0. Kent St 85 yard fumble return late in 4th when WMU was driving to make it 41-24 instead of 34-31.
Boise, as you said, gives up a fumble return for a TD late in the 4th to blow the cover then doesn't care to kick FGs late in the game.
Va Tech 406-295, 4 turnovers to 1. Easily could have been a win.
TCU 516-389, loses turnover battle 3-0 and loses by 3 in triple OT. Beat the close by 2.5 here. Should have been a win.
My other 4 losses were brutal and definitely should have been losses. Cal at least closed well, but still never had a chance.
None of my wins were fortunate with the possible exception of Florida but it's tough to say that when you cover by 30.
It's been like this a lot this year. I could go through and do this same thing for last week, for example. Last year, my picks were not as good and I was quite honestly the benefit of some positive variance to finish the season up as much as I did. This year, my stuff is definitely better and I feel great about my picks, for the most part, before AND after the game. 60% of my picks have beaten the close, and since I've started posting openers it's certainly higher than that. Only 19% have -CLV. I'm honestly pretty frustrated to be sitting here needing a Baylor cover to be up units on the season.
Sorry to anybody who managed to or cared to read that (o/u 2.5 people probably a fair line on that one) if that came off like whining. I try to be the last guy to whine about bad beats, but I just wanted to vent a bit I suppose. In the end it is what it is and all you can do is keep firing +EV bets at the board and let the chips fall where they may
been there and done that. i started a shit storm back in the day with a similar thread when i was struggling in the NFL on season and my frustration level was high. people seemed to think the right side of the game was always the one that won. where as my point was teams that outgain the other in the NFL win SU 64% and win ATS 69% (or reverse of those), but there was much resistance at the time of that thread. credit to Ed that the board has evolved to this point. one of my biggest complaints then was turnovers and the completely random nature of them. that got negative feedback as well so i challenge anyone anywhere to accurately forecast the time and amount of turnovers for any game.
but if you keep getting more CLV than not, and teams keep performing the way you forecast them to, you will come through it
on top of the bad luck losses, you get assholes like me venting over a few losing weeks.
big game tonight for us as fans! you have any gameday thoughts on how you think things go?
In all seriousness, I'm too emotionally invested in it to have any rational thoughts. This is one of the biggest games for Michigan football in years. I really don't think we're that good, but we have a shot at a Legends division title and a win tonight would be enormous. I make it 3 and am happy to sit on the sidelines and flip back and forth between that game and my Tigers. Going to be just a fan tonight.
i am certainly not investing any more than emotion into this one as well. Huge game on both sides for chances at division titles and this is a must win (or atleast a must well played game on both sides of the ball) for Pelini as I really think if the huskers perform overly poor on defense again then he is just opening the door a little wider on the way out...
Yep that was a nice one. About 6 more and we're even.
On another note, I think I'm 0-5 on 2h. No excuse and it absolutely counts in my record, but that makes me feel a bit better about my full game cap record.
Comments
been there and done that. i started a shit storm back in the day with a similar thread when i was struggling in the NFL on season and my frustration level was high. people seemed to think the right side of the game was always the one that won. where as my point was teams that outgain the other in the NFL win SU 64% and win ATS 69% (or reverse of those), but there was much resistance at the time of that thread. credit to Ed that the board has evolved to this point. one of my biggest complaints then was turnovers and the completely random nature of them. that got negative feedback as well so i challenge anyone anywhere to accurately forecast the time and amount of turnovers for any game.
but if you keep getting more CLV than not, and teams keep performing the way you forecast them to, you will come through it
on top of the bad luck losses, you get assholes like me venting over a few losing weeks.
stay the course sir.
GL.
.
I give up.
In all seriousness, I'm too emotionally invested in it to have any rational thoughts. This is one of the biggest games for Michigan football in years. I really don't think we're that good, but we have a shot at a Legends division title and a win tonight would be enormous. I make it 3 and am happy to sit on the sidelines and flip back and forth between that game and my Tigers. Going to be just a fan tonight.
Arsenio Favor pass intercepted by Paul Porras at the Rice 25, returned for 75 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. Chris Boswell extra point GOOD.
How surprising.
Did that just happen?
easy winner
Never mind. It was a bad snap and the holder just threw it up for grabs. Yuck.
Yay for you guys though.....lol
On another note, I think I'm 0-5 on 2h. No excuse and it absolutely counts in my record, but that makes me feel a bit better about my full game cap record.
Time to devote my time to college hoops.
GL all.
I'm glad I gave up before you did............I don't expect buckets to be much better............tough market.......GL THO