NCAAF - Season Thread - Picks
NFLPicksGuy
Senior Member
I start my NCAAF capping after week 1.
Usually I would wait to post but just wanted to bring to everyones attention that Vegas is way off on one line. Nebraska -4.5 @ UCLA.
I am already on this for my maximum bet. I watched both of these teams play yesterday and Nebraska is a obviously a tier above UCLA, and playing better than last year. Martinez matured over the offseason and I think Neb is a big 10 sleeper.
Anyway, I started to do some basic statical analysis and after about 5 minutes it became glaringly obvious that based on a few simple methods, one would expect this line to be in the Neb -14 range. Let's don't over think this, the huskers will run away with this one.
NEB -4.5 (it will move)
NFLPicksGuy
Usually I would wait to post but just wanted to bring to everyones attention that Vegas is way off on one line. Nebraska -4.5 @ UCLA.
I am already on this for my maximum bet. I watched both of these teams play yesterday and Nebraska is a obviously a tier above UCLA, and playing better than last year. Martinez matured over the offseason and I think Neb is a big 10 sleeper.
Anyway, I started to do some basic statical analysis and after about 5 minutes it became glaringly obvious that based on a few simple methods, one would expect this line to be in the Neb -14 range. Let's don't over think this, the huskers will run away with this one.
NEB -4.5 (it will move)
NFLPicksGuy
Comments
By comparison, last season UCLA had the 84th ranked Total Defense, 57th pass D. My point is UCLA and S.Miss aren't that dissimilar, and the result should be about the same - 29 point victory.
i would be happy with that. GL.
Not trying to sway you from laying your wager down but So. Miss has inferior talent compared to UCLA, the So. Miss team from last season and this season are night and day. UCLA is 5 deep at RB and all those guys would start over anyone Nebraska has on its roster not to mention UCLA has out recruited Nebraska over the past 10 years and most recent having recruiting classes in the top 10 each season. Really I think this is a bad match up for Nebraska due to the fact UCLA is deep at the skill position and at the DL. Jim Mora held back a lot of players such as Fauria who is 6'8 and unstoppable on the field. If you watch the Rice game he came in twice and both times Rice could not do anything to cover him. Nebraska will see a heavy dose of him come Saturday, but ucla showed nothing this past week but a very vanilla offense. I follow the PAC very close and right now that's one I will stay away from but thinking Nebby wins by 29 won't happen they have a lot of talent and are home? Good luck either way..
LOL. not sure if anything above in bold is the truth but I agree with some of your other points about it being a much closer game than the OP. If UCLA is so damn good then why aren't they favored? I'm guessing you are a bit of a UCLA fan? Was just curious.
http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/classrankings?classyear=2012&classmonth=2&rank=19&viewmore=yes
Look I follow the pac12, years ago when I joined this forum I would help with any info I could in the past to help others with a bet so they don't just take the brand over facts. In this case as of late the brand (Nebraska) has been better but to discount all the talent UCLA has and being at home should be considered. UCLA has out recruited Nebraska and its a fact, would I wager on this game? No, the line in my opinion is trap to take Nebraska. My post above was never to start an argument but to give you some things to consider like talent and depth which UCLA is loaded with, matter of fact Tom Lugenbill about a week ago picked UCLA to win this game because of the talent they have vs what Nebraska has on its roster. And he's the director of recruiting for ESPN?
Utah/Utah St
Wisky/Oregon St
Okst/Arizona
I think Utah State and Oregon State can keep it close and it wouldn't surprise me to see Arizona get killed they've lost to much and their talent and depth is lacking.
Yes it sure is. Plus they covered a double digit spread on national TV last week for the world to see. Give me the DOG
There is value here for Nebraska. We got lucky that UCLA scored so many points against Rice in week 1. Last year Rice had the 123rd ranked Defense (86th Rushing). You would expect any team to score a ton, but not how UCLA did. Look at 4 of their scoring plays:
- 72 yard run, 74 yard run, 78 yard run, 44 yard fumble return.
Plays like that, which inflate the final score, are great for helping the public over value a team, hence great for sharp bettors to be on the other side next week. Because runs like that won't happen against Nebraska, or any other team this year. UCLA was only up by 5 points with 1 minute before half time before the Fumble 6. This is a must bet against UCLA for me, no matter who they were playing. The final score of the Rice game is what gives us the value.
Nebraska scored I think I'll bet UNDER 61 in this game.
Who do you guys think is trapping you? The entire market?
Thank you.
You're my new favorite poster :clapup:
Fools don't set the market.
A) No matter how many books they read.
In the stock market.... THE BANKERS OWN YOUR SOUL
In the NFL................. THE LINES MAKER OWNS YOUR SOUL AND BODY
That was deep man
Now if they had a significant injury on the OL, that may have been a different story :wonder:
Mich -21.5
Ark St. - 23
Nebraska - 5
Missouri MONEYLINE
Nevada PK
Wisc -6.5
Ariz St. -4.5
USC -24.5
Purdue + 14
UL Monroe
Aggies UNDER 49.5
This^^^^