Tough loss big guy, shake it off. It was a great season for the Bucks and you should be proud! I hear a lot of talk of statistical analysis based on past performances that are manipulated in order to make them predictive in nature. And I agree, that stuff is great, but there is more to predicting basketball games than those methods. Yes, the line from a Oddsmaker's perspective was correct b/c it split the action in an adequate manner by taking into account all the metrics that sports investors consider important, but from a predictive standpoint for that one particular game that was played last night it was incorrect if "the line being right" is taken to mean "an accurate prediction of the final game result." I always find it amazing how statistical handicappers (and don't get me wrong, these objective handicappers will find value and win over the long term because their modules utilize enough significantly predictive variables to ensure that they will be right over 52.38% of the time and that is all that is required to beat -110 odds) assume that they had the right line every time, even when they lose. The truth is this: (1) statistics enable us to uncover many things about the game that would be extremely (if not impossibly) difficult to uncover with the human eyes, (2) HOWEVER, the most sophisticated computer ever brought into existence (the human mind) also can uncover things about the game that statistics cannot and it can also retrieve, analyze, and interpret certain forms of information that a computer module cannot with adequate effectiveness (info that can often trump reliable +ev predictive metrics), and (3) combining both of these analytical powerhouses in a non-biased manner is the BEST way to generate a predictive number for any game. With that said, significant variables that will determine the outcomes of certain games will still be left out and that is why I can't help but cringe when any given handicapper says, "Yeah, I lost, but I was on the right side." No you weren't, not for that one game on that one particular night.
So whoever wins the game should have been favored nowadays? Smh
I never said that !
I said the wrong team was favored when the line came out. Because I thought Kansas was the better team.
It is hilarious how badly Ohio State backers will go out of their way to defend their point. They lost to the better team end of story.
If they played tomorrow Kansas would be either Pick or Favored. IMO
This is getting comical , I am guessing the books made a fortune on this game, because of how much OSU defense is popping up.
I popped up defending the buckeyes because the buckeye haters are far worse than the supporters. Everyone loves to root against the buckeyes for some reason.
And i disagree that Kansas would be favored if they play again. A close win for a 3 point underdog wouldn't change the line by 3 or more points in the next game......but i guess we'll never know.
Some constructive thoughts for future use...over the years one of the most important aspects in CBB handicapping that seems to get lost or overlooked more than anything and especially in the tourney is the coach differential. One thing I learned from perhaps the best CBB handicapper ever (IMO) regardless of what you think of him individually (AB), is superior coaching. The fact that some have stated how "lucky" KU was in edging out close games (which in a lot of cases they had to dig out from slow start 1H's) should be screaming out to you that the halftime adjustments made has been the single biggest factor in determining most of KU's final outcomes. The spreads put out with most weight given to the PR's among other obvious factors ie., game location, injuries, etc. is one thing when you say "the wrong team is favored" but just as if not more importantly is the coaching differential. That's what makes the Brad Stevens or Shaka Smart's consistently top choices when AD's are looking to fill vacancies. Talent and athleticism can take you so far but what ultimately a majority of the time gets a team across the finish line in overachieving is the coaching IQ. Bill Self is 3-0 in final fours is more than coincidence. Yesterday, I took the Buckeyes first half as Jhawks have been notorious for slow starts, especially in the tourney, but I had KU for the game as Self has made great defensive adjustments routinely at halftime to get them where they are. His confident demeanor and leadership along with his coaching IQ has taken a team that lost most of last years enormous talent and brought them back to the brink of a national title speaks volumes to his coaching ability. He should be coach of the year IMO and this should not be overlooked when capping KU. As I stated in the first sentence of this thread, I think this would benefit a lot of bettors on this board if they always stop and ask themselves prior to "sending it in" where the coaching edge is as a final thought before pulling the trigger in the future. GL all going forward!
FWIW, I had a small play on Kansas, but I would think OSU would be a short fav against, in spite of the coaching and all the comments above. The thing that stood out to me was OSU's poise down the stretch. Yeah, they lost, but how many times did KU have a shot to take the lead and OSU got a key stop and went down and hit a big shot to go back up 3 or 4. They finally just couldn't match against the team that had all the momentum. I would love to see these teams play a 7 game series. Frankly I don't know who would win it. It isn't anywhere near the 60% comment that the Buckeyes fan mentioned. It would be interesting to see who could control the tempo, as it seems OSU is dominate in the half court game, but open floor, Kansas clearly had the better of it. And for those that mentioned OSU dominated the first half....OK...Kansas dominated the 2nd. I don't see the point of that. Clearly these teams are very close and the game showed that.
LOL you mean like when everyone liked Vandy and you talked about how easy it would be, then Wisconsin won? Or when everyone liked Syracuse and you talked about how easy it would be, then Wisconsin covered?
Saying the wrong team was favored is ridiculous, short-sighted, and results oriented.
Bumping your thread after a winner and telling us how it was a guarantee is pathetic. Congrats on the win, but act like you've won before and let it speak for itself.
Hey-- I see nothing wrong with bumping a thread after a winner-- and plan to do it if I ever pick one. LOL
I don't want to hear people crying and moaning after a loss any more than I want to hear what a great pick a winner was. All this space would have been better used with an analysis of tonight's game.
Comments
I never said that !
I said the wrong team was favored when the line came out. Because I thought Kansas was the better team.
It is hilarious how badly Ohio State backers will go out of their way to defend their point. They lost to the better team end of story.
If they played tomorrow Kansas would be either Pick or Favored. IMO
This is getting comical , I am guessing the books made a fortune on this game, because of how much OSU defense is popping up.
And i disagree that Kansas would be favored if they play again. A close win for a 3 point underdog wouldn't change the line by 3 or more points in the next game......but i guess we'll never know.
Not quite laughable, but whatever.
Hey-- I see nothing wrong with bumping a thread after a winner-- and plan to do it if I ever pick one. LOL
I don't want to hear people crying and moaning after a loss any more than I want to hear what a great pick a winner was. All this space would have been better used with an analysis of tonight's game.