Betting Talk

Champions League Round of 16

hornhorn Super Moderator
edited March 2011 in Sports Betting
Plays going to come primarily from 5dimes because they have superior soccer lines to most of the other big shops. I'll keep a record using a variety of books, similar to World Cup.

Record: 12-9 (+5.12 units)

Tuesday:

Tottenham +.5 +123
Tottenham Team Total OVER .5 -169
Tottenham to Advance +126

Wednesday:

Barcelona/Arsenal OVER 2.75 -121
Barcelona/Arsenal BOTH TEAMS SCORE: YES -163
Shakhtar Donetsk/ Roma DRAW 1-1 +550 (.40 unit)


Tuesday:

FC Copenhagen +.75 -120
Real Madrid/Lyon UNDER 2.5 -123

Wednesday:

Bayern Munich/Inter OVER 2.5 -106
Bayern Munich to Advance -120
Bayern Munich/Inter Both Teams Score a Goal: YES -135
Bayern Munich/Inter 2-1 +1034 (.20 unit)

Manchester United/Marseile 0-0 +627 (.20 unit)


Tuesday:

Shakhtar Donetsk ML -104
Roma/Shakhtar Donetsk OVER 2.5 -115

Barcelona HT/FT -125
Lionel Messi Scores a Goal: YES -148


Wednesday:

Tottenham ML +126
Milan/Tottenham BOTH TEAMS SCORE A GOAL: YES -138
Milan/Tottenham ANY PLAYER SHOWN A RED CARD: YES +300 (.20 unit)


Wednesday:

3 teamer
Man City ML
Man U ML
Real Madrid ML (+187)


I'll try to contribute some insight on some of the CL bets, but won't have the time right now to do so on this one. GL
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Comments

  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn,

    I like this one as well 2/15/11 2:45pm* European Cup*Soccer* 10324 Both teams score a goal -123* vs A team is scoreless*

    regards
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    That will likely prove to be the more efficient and price conscious bet to make as opposed to tott to score. GL to us, 2-1 Spurs tickles my fancy.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Nice job today horn
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Thanks, Kass.

    Wednesday:

    Barcelona/Arsenal OVER 2.75 -121

    I don't think this price gets any better and Puyol being in question would shoot this up as well if he doesn't go. Going to wait to decide on the other game.
  • nyjets1532nyjets1532 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    can u briefly explain what the line "over 2.5 and 3" -130 means?

    im sure its the same as over 2.75, but not sure how its graded if it lands on 3 goals?

    thanks
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    nyjets1532 wrote: »
    can u briefly explain what the line "over 2.5 and 3" -130 means?

    im sure its the same as over 2.75, but not sure how its graded if it lands on 3 goals?

    thanks

    It is essentially two bets.

    Half Graded at OVER 2.5
    Half Graded at OVER 3

    0,1,2 goals you would lose 1.3 (assuming to win 1 unit)

    3 goals scored, you would win half your bet and push the other half

    4 or < goals scored, you win 1 unit

    Anytime you see .25 or .75 in soccer betting, it essentially two bets in one. Hope this explains it. GL!
  • nyjets1532nyjets1532 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    i see whats going on....so what would the price be on the over 3?

    lets say i bet over 2.75 ....130 to win 100

    what would my profit be if it lands on 3 goals?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    nyjets1532 wrote: »
    i see whats going on....so what would the price be on the over 3?

    lets say i bet over 2.75 ....130 to win 100

    what would my profit be if it lands on 3 goals?

    50, you win half the bet and push half the bet.

    I had OVER 3 at several of my sites at -101, +100, or thereabouts, where it would take 4 goals to win anything.
  • nyjets1532nyjets1532 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    thanks for clearing this up.....and thanks for the winners today
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    No problem, glad to help.
  • EscootEscoot Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn wrote: »
    Wednesday:

    Barcelona/Arsenal OVER 2.75 -121

    I don't think this price gets any better and Puyol being in question would shoot this up as well if he doesn't go. Going to wait to decide on the other game.

    FWIW, an excellent article on the tactics we might see employed in this game.

    http://www.itv.com/sport/football/championsleague/news/arsenal-v-barcelona-preview-champions-league-2011-tie-will-be-won-off-the-ball-24586/

    "There’s an increasing feeling that to cause Barcelona problems, a manager must choose one extreme or the other – sit very, very deep and defend on the edge of the penalty box, or go all-out-attack and give them a taste of their own medicine... If those are the only two options, it’s obvious which one Wenger will choose. He has neither the desire nor the personnel to sit back and soak up pressure for 90 minutes, and so an aggressive approach both with and without the ball seems inevitable."
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Wednesday:

    Correct Score

    Shakhtar Donetsk/ Roma DRAW 1-1 +550 (.40 unit)
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    any thoughts on the Barca score I was looking at 3-1 Barca +1250 seemed like a good place to take a shot.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    kass101 wrote: »
    any thoughts on the Barca score I was looking at 3-1 Barca +1250 seemed like a good place to take a shot.

    Ya, I could see something like that. 2-2 would be another score I would take a look at.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Barcelona/Arsenal BOTH TEAMS SCORE: YES -163
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    what a choke job by Barca, does Puyol really mean that much?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    I think that Puyol is very important, but not sure he would have made a difference in this one. You hate to criticize Messi, but a lot of this falls on him for having a poor game. They could have realistically had 2 or 3 goals in the first half hour. Messi and RVP are arguably two of the hottest goal scorers in the world right now and both were poor. Gonna be another over bet at camp nou in the second leg.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Wednesday:

    Bayern Munich/Inter OVER 2.5 -106

    Wanted to lock this in now. I really don't understand this being priced the way that it is. Will also playing another scoring prop on this game when available. Working on the tuesday games.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn,

    A couple of options for tomorrow

    2/22/11 2:45pm* European Cup*Soccer* 114 FC Copenhagen (UCL) +1 -169* vs Chelsea (UCL)*
    OR
    2/22/11 2:45pm* European Cup*Soccer* 114 FC Copenhagen (UCL) +½ +112* vs Chelsea (UCL)*

    Chelsea is on a very poor run...6 wins in 19 games...1 win in 5...I think draw is the most likely outcome, BUT I think +0.5 goals covers about 75+% of the likely outcomes, +1 goal probably covers 10% more, AND gives a push with Chelsea 1 goal win, doh. I think Chelsea win of 2 or more goals, less than 10% (probably should fade that comment).

    Regards,
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Dragon, I am looking at something similar, I was thinking about trying to do something with a correct score.

    Wednesday:

    Bayern Munich to Advance -120 (Greek)
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Tuesday:

    FC Copenhagen +.75 -120

    Real Madrid/Lyon UNDER 2.5 -123
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn wrote: »
    Tuesday:

    FC Copenhagen +.75 -120

    horn, not sure where you're playing that line...take 5 dimes +.5 goals (+111) currently. Same bet, better price.

    Regards,
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Dragonswirl wrote: »
    horn, not sure where you're playing that line...take 5 dimes +.5 goals (+111) currently. Same bet, better price.

    Regards,

    5dimes: +.5,+1 or +.75
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn wrote: »
    5dimes: +.5,+1 or +.75

    Doh!

    Although, to get technical, +.5, +1 IS NOT the same as +.75. Just for others following you, I now realize it is shorthand.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    I should have been more clear, I explained the quarter ball handicap in regards to totals on the 1st page, but should have been more clear on this.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    horn wrote: »
    I should have been more clear, I explained the quarter ball handicap in regards to totals on the 1st page, but should have been more clear on this.

    horn,

    No problem, I just play soccer a whole lot, and I was confused (my general condition actually).
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    LB, Best
    I'm following per MOM!
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited February 2011
    Dragonswirl wrote: »
    Doh!

    Although, to get technical, +.5, +1 IS NOT the same as +.75. Just for others following you, I now realize it is shorthand.

    Actually, it is the same (notation: +0.5, +0.75 is the same as +0.75).

    Price-wise/in terms of value, there's little to choose between +0.5 +111 and +0.75 -120 though - the former is probably very slightly better, I think.

    To be fair to you, Dragonswirl, it's more of a European-type notation, and it doesn't appear as commonly used as it once was - probably because it's so confusing.

    Victor Chandler is an example of a book that uses quarter-goal decimals - there are probably many more - just one I looked up to make sure it's still in use :)
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    -Clint- wrote: »
    Actually, it is the same (notation: +0.5, +0.75 is the same as +0.75).

    Price-wise/in terms of value, there's little to choose between +0.5 +111 and +0.75 -120 though - the former is probably very slightly better, I think.

    To be fair to you, Dragonswirl, it's more of a European-type notation, and it doesn't appear as commonly used as it once was - probably because it's so confusing.

    Victor Chandler is an example of a book that uses quarter-goal decimals - there are probably many more - just one I looked up to make sure it's still in use :)

    Clint,

    I think the +.75 is shorthand, as horn used it and you explained. I know I have seen it before, Pinnacle comes to mind, BUT since it has been awhile since a US based player has been able to use any of the European books, I haven't run across that notation in practice. IF, the +.25 OR +.75 IS NOT shorthand, it is crazy, since Tottenham -0.25, -0.50 OR -0.75 is PRECISELY the same bet. Tottenham MUST win, since there are no partial goals in soccer ;-)

    I wasn't sure if it was like discussions on the difference between the home or away price in the ML and -0.5 goals spread price. They should be identical, as it takes the same outcome to win each/either bet, yet since the books price the ML & spreads separately, you can find price variance often. 3 quick examples from this afternoon ... Tottenham -0.5 goals (-124), Tottenham ML (-121)... a greater variance in Peterbrough -0.5 goals (-127), Peterbrough ML (-121) ... Real Madrid -0.5 goals (-110), Real ML (-102).
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Wednesday:

    Correct Scores

    Bayern Munich/ Inter 2-1 +1034 (.20 unit)

    Manchester United/Marseille 0-0 +627 (.20 unit)
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