UFC 126 Plays
kass101
Senior Member
Ryan Bader +310 over Jon Jones
was posted a while ago by me as I felt it had very good value at that number. I think Jon Jones is the favorite in this fight but Bader is a very good and athletic fighter as well and has a solid chance at the upset. I was obviously right on the value as it has moved to +250 at most shops.
Ricardo Romero +115 Over Kyle Kingsbury
Romero has a very good ground game and has shown some very good toughness in his last fight, surviving some big shots from Petruzelli before finishing him. Kingsbury will try and take this fight to the ground and use his top game but Romero is dangerous from his back and Kingsbury does not have the wrestling ability to hold Romero down for 3 rounds, nor has he shown the ability to be dynamic and finish fights.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto -120 Over Demetrious Johnson
The success of Japanese fighters coming over has not been good but Yamamoto while late in his career is a dynamic striker and an exceptional wrestler whos only losses recently have come to two of the top fighers in the world and he for the most part has been fighting above his natural weight class. Johnson is a solid fighter but Yamamoto is better in every area. If "Kid" can overcome the first time in the UFC effect he should be able to put on a good show and begin his clime of the UFC Bantamweight division.
Banuelos/Torres Over 2.5 Rounds -111
Both are tough guys, and Banuelos has gone to decision in the majority of his fight, Torres while finishing more fights usually does it late in the fight after he wears the other fighter down. Banuelos will be trying to get inside and take top position while Torres most likely will be using his reach and jab to wear down Banuelos.
Michihiro Omigawa +260 Over Chad Mendes
Mendes is a terrific wrestler which is the reason he is so heavily favored here, however Omigawa is one of the best fighters in the world and much better than anyone Mendes has fought so far. Omigawa has very tight boxing which will be the key to this fight, if he allows Mendes to take him down at will it will be over but if he uses his footwork and works his jab he has a great shot to pick up the win. This is a great fight and will be a huge win for either fighter, one of the top 3 fights on the card.
Belfort/Silva Over 2.5 Rounds +115
Anyone who has seen Silva fight lately knows he is fighting cautiously, and using his jab to control the fight. The key here is Belfort if he starts the fight controlled and uses his footwork, we go over. However if he comes forward wildly like he can do, he is playing right into Silva's hands and will most likely get hit with a counter shot and go down.
77-80-2 (+18.02 Units)
was posted a while ago by me as I felt it had very good value at that number. I think Jon Jones is the favorite in this fight but Bader is a very good and athletic fighter as well and has a solid chance at the upset. I was obviously right on the value as it has moved to +250 at most shops.
Ricardo Romero +115 Over Kyle Kingsbury
Romero has a very good ground game and has shown some very good toughness in his last fight, surviving some big shots from Petruzelli before finishing him. Kingsbury will try and take this fight to the ground and use his top game but Romero is dangerous from his back and Kingsbury does not have the wrestling ability to hold Romero down for 3 rounds, nor has he shown the ability to be dynamic and finish fights.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto -120 Over Demetrious Johnson
The success of Japanese fighters coming over has not been good but Yamamoto while late in his career is a dynamic striker and an exceptional wrestler whos only losses recently have come to two of the top fighers in the world and he for the most part has been fighting above his natural weight class. Johnson is a solid fighter but Yamamoto is better in every area. If "Kid" can overcome the first time in the UFC effect he should be able to put on a good show and begin his clime of the UFC Bantamweight division.
Banuelos/Torres Over 2.5 Rounds -111
Both are tough guys, and Banuelos has gone to decision in the majority of his fight, Torres while finishing more fights usually does it late in the fight after he wears the other fighter down. Banuelos will be trying to get inside and take top position while Torres most likely will be using his reach and jab to wear down Banuelos.
Michihiro Omigawa +260 Over Chad Mendes
Mendes is a terrific wrestler which is the reason he is so heavily favored here, however Omigawa is one of the best fighters in the world and much better than anyone Mendes has fought so far. Omigawa has very tight boxing which will be the key to this fight, if he allows Mendes to take him down at will it will be over but if he uses his footwork and works his jab he has a great shot to pick up the win. This is a great fight and will be a huge win for either fighter, one of the top 3 fights on the card.
Belfort/Silva Over 2.5 Rounds +115
Anyone who has seen Silva fight lately knows he is fighting cautiously, and using his jab to control the fight. The key here is Belfort if he starts the fight controlled and uses his footwork, we go over. However if he comes forward wildly like he can do, he is playing right into Silva's hands and will most likely get hit with a counter shot and go down.
77-80-2 (+18.02 Units)
Comments
It is an interesting fight in that Belfort has the tools to beat Silva but his style also plays right into Silva's hands. Belfort likes to come forward and use his great boxing but Silva loves to counter and has very good power when doing so. Silva's weakness is obviously his wrestling and if Belfort can take him down he has a chance to pull the upset because unlike Sonnen he will not get submitted by Silva as his BJJ is much better. Belfort also has the power to end it on the feet as we have seen consistently from him. However I still think Silva will catch Vitor with a counter shot and drop him and continue to pepper him before Vitor runs out of gas in the 4th. So Silva will win by TKO in the 4th or 5th.
This is a great fight card, I wish I was in your shoes and got to see it live.
Silva is far and away my favorite fighter in all of MMA and I normally envision him dominating but I could see Belfort catching him and finishing it in a rally. I don't think Silva has fought many people with the 1 punch power of Belfort, but as you said, that might play right into Silva's hand. Anyone that comes straight forward on Silva will need to be woken up in the immediate future. I'm not sure what exactly happened in the Sonnen fight as far as him not being ready, truly being injured, etc. but I don't think this is a fight he will come out flat. Dana has been on his ass to perform, Belfort should force the action, and the Vegas lights typically bring out the best in people.
I'm also surprised Griffin and Franklin are willing to be in the same building as Silva after the beatings he put on them
Donald Cerrone wins inside the distance -120
Cerrone is just a much better fighter in all aspects than Paul Kelly, Plus Cerrone fights to finish fights and not just win a decision so considering all those factors I think this play has a lot of value over the straight Cerrone -290 money line.
Ok, UFC 126 is a really stacked card, so you don't want to miss this one. It is the UFC's Superbowl eve card and they like to showcase top talent, and this year is no different. Here are the Picks:
- Paul Taylor (-190) over Gabe Ruediger - Ruediger might be the worst fighter in the UFC
- Mighty Mouse Johson (+105) over Norifumi "Kid" Yammamoto - The talent level in Japan has proven to be far inferior to that of the UFC and Kid might be in for a wakeup call in his UFC debut. He is on the other side of his prime too.
- Jake Ellenberger (-240) over Carlos Rocha - Wrestling matches up really well with Jiu Jitsu
- Vitor Belfort (+250) over Anderson Silva to become the new UFC Middleweight Champion - Belfort has far faster hands - you heard it here first.
Never heard of him, and IMO his analysis is pretty poor. I agree with him on Taylor and Ellenberger but its not like those are difficult selections.
I certainly hope so, "Kid" has always been one of my favorite fighters.
I cant explain it, and to have Olympic caliber wrestling and look like that is just crazy. Sad Sad perfromance.
damn why couldnt he keep punching instead of going for the choke...
Well worth the money to see that knockout
That was a nasty KO, and you also got to see the future LHW champ live because no one is stopping Jon Jones.
Buying the point and getting Steelers +4 today from Bodog...good luck
after his performance last night, no way we get +300 or anything close but trust me I am right with you.
And by the way, bodog won't let me buy the point for some reason, so taking Pitt +3 -115