I will post a strong Saturday selection later this evening, doing writeups now... hoping for a 2-0 weekend here to make a dent in my season to date record at BT.
I hope to make a comeback in my BT record, starting today.
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 0-2, -4.4 Units
NFL 0-2, -4.4 Units
Total 0-4, -8.8 Units (All Plays @ 2 Units)
Lines from DonBest, using Bookmaker current listings...
#357 Navy +3
East Carolina has a defense that make mothers cry and now face an unfamiliar foe that runs an offense they rarely see. That Navy offense eats clock, moves the chains and will break some long runs when the Pirates fail in gap control, which they will. It will be tougher for the ECU offense to get any type of rhythm if Navy holds the ball for long stretches (13th in NCAA in Time of Possession) and moves it up and down the field. Navy came out flat against Duke last week off their win vs. Notre Dame, which could be expected but they fought back after being down early and nearly pulled out the win. Navy rushes for nearly five yards a carry, while ECU allows almost that much. Teams in that role are solid underdogs when the better running team gets points. Navy is a better offense AND defense by over 100 yards each. Both teams are on the cusp of bowl eligibility wit five wins each, but ECU will likely have to wait another week to get theirs. They have three CUSA games on deck and coming off a tough loss in conference to Central Florida, they will likely not focus as much on this mid-season non conference game stuck in between the CUSA slate and scheme up to stop an option offense they won't face all season other than this week. ECU also has to play again on Thursday against UAB and I would guess that is where a fair amount of their attention and film study is going.
This situation sets up very poorly for ECU with schedule, style of play and coming off that tough loss last week. Navy and all military schools have a unique focus and drive that scholarship athletes at other schools don't possess, and they tend to be single-minded from game to game, never losing sight of the prize. Navy failed in a favorite role last week which is not their strong suit, but they are always a dangerous underdog and they haven't lost B2B games under this coach since the 2nd and 3rd games in his first season. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs actually threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's last week, and with the horrible ECU pass defense, you may see some more of that out of this option team this week as well. Last time these teams met in 2007, navy ran for over 440 yards, and ECU's defense hasn't improved one bit since then even though the players may be different. ECU allows 37 points per game, ranking 111th in scoring D, 92nd against the run and 105th overall. Navy is 42-22 ATS away from home since 2002. Navy wins straight up. Navy 33, ECU 28.
Mychal - Thanks for the winner. This should be a terrific game, and Navy will certainly be focused. Hey, who do you like in the AF-Army matchup?
T.
I looked at that game early in the week, liked Army +... strength of schedule had me off a bit... someone had a great, insightful writeup on that game here, MrEast I think was his name... take a read for some good info.
Pix I want to see you get back on track, but this is a tough game to do it with. I'm surprised honestly that ECU is only laying 3 points in this game. Tough to play at home it will be a sellout crowd who likes to get loud. Its chilly out which means more tailgaters so this crowd should be rowdy. Also I really like Ruffin, he's a humble guy, a real players coach, and he knows how to get his team focused. After the lost last week I think ECU will be giving this game 100%. One thing is for sure, there are going to be alot of points scored and this could come down to who has the ball last. Best of luck today.
Hey! I broke my streak! Thanks to those who followed... I have a short card tomorrow, didn't see much I liked. I will post another play either for MNF if I go with it, (I have only one MNF play this season) or back next weekend. Thanks guys.
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 1-2, -2.4 Units
NFL 0-2, -4.4 Units
Total 1-4, -6.8 Units (All Plays @ 2 Units)
Lines from DonBest, using Bookmaker current listings...
#148 Kentucky -14.5
We went against Vandy last week based on the complete breakdown of the offense, ( the writeup of last week still applies to the Vandy team) which hadn't really done much all year anyway. But they were in a tough spot against a Florida team that had gotten the offense together during their bye week and had improved enough to beat UGA in overtime and only lay 14.5 at Vandy, the best line we may ever see in that matchup. Now they travel and get more points, but this team is cooked. they have now lost the best two running backs (the other went down last week) and the defense has collapsed under the weight of trying to support the offense. Kentucky is priced the same as Florida when they were a road favorite, which may seem like an overlay. However, if you have watched Vandy over the past few weeks, this team is done. They haven't QUIT, they are an outstanding and focused team with probably the smartest athletes in the whole SEC. But the season, injury and the conference, plus their coach quitting right before fall practice started has beaten them down. I don't know that they could beat a Sun Belt team now. Kentucky put up 34 against Auburn here and 31 on UGA and South Carolina. They are still fighting for that magical sixth win (bowl eligibility), and they have to travel next week, so this game is big. Vandy won't likely get over 13 points and Kentucky gets RB Derrick Locke back today for an added weapon... the Vandy relief coaching staff probably knows they are done after this year and the talent level, even at Kentucky is so far superior. If this was Florida or Alabama, they would probably back off and know that a pounding won't help the BCS standing, but UK has a 5-5 record and wants to get in to a better bowl, so style points matter now when you aren't in the Top 15.Kentucky has been on a tough run against the top SEC teams, but this is a beatdown waiting to happen. Kentucky 51, Vanderbilt 6.
Back tomorrow if I see an NFL winner for the forum...
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 1-2, -2.4 Units
NFL 0-2, -4.4 Units
Total 1-4, -6.8 Units (All Plays @ 2 Units)
Mychal - With the new recordkeeping rules, we're asking that everyone posts their primary record as an "unweighted" record. You're certainly welcome to keep a weighted record as well, but if every play is going to be 2 units for you, it might just be easier to call everything one unit (or if you're going to change up the units, post the record both weighted and unweighted). Thanks a lot and good luck today.
Slowly fighting my way back, two winners in a row. Let's go for three with an NFL Total:
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 2-2, -0.2 Units
NFL 0-2, -2.2 Units
Total 2-4, -2.4 Units
#219 Titans OVER 42.5
The Chad Henne Experiment has been shelved for now, and Chad Pennington will make his first start since Week Three of last year. Henne was only part of the problem, however. The Dolphins special teams are terrible and the secondary has been torched of late, so they cut a former #1 draft pick in Jason Allen and picked up corner Al Harris, 36 years old and who was released by Green Bay. That may not be much of an improvement. Speaking of picking up old released players, Tennessee is the third team this year to have Randy Moss, of food critic fame. Last time Moss was in Miami, he was cussing out the Patriots offensive coordinator at halftime because they were winning and he wasn't the show. The Titans lost their top wideout, Kenny Britt to a hamstring pull so Moss is supposed to pick up the slack. One issue is that the reason he was held catchless in that last game with the Pats against the Dolphins due to the physical corner play of Vontae Davis. If he can at least keep Miami from stacking the box to stop Chris Johnson, it will help. It doesn't make any difference in this play if Vince Young or Kerry Collins start for the Titans, they both can move the offense and bring different skills that will help against the Miami defense. That D that had started the year so strongly is slipping fast, some due to injury and some to the offense leaving them in bad spots. The Titans are actually the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL right now and are coming off their bye week. However, the Titan secondary is struggling like the Dolphins are, and if Pennington can get the ball to Brandon Marshall they should hold up well in this contest but their defense has allowed an average of 30 points per game at home in the last five games played there. This game should top 50 easy.
Titans 28, Dolphins 26.
Have a great day, everyone. Off to the sportbook to watch this mess.
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 2-2, -0.2 Units
NFL 1-2, -1.2 Units
Total 3-4, -1.4 Units
#415 Redskins OVER 44
The country had a chance to witness the Redskins defense last Monday night, when they allowed 28 first quarter points to be down 28-0 before most people had settled in their seats. That was the first time in NFL history that a home team had been down 28-0 in the first quarter. It didn't get any better from there, they gave up another on the first play of the 2nd quarter to go down 35-0, and the rout was on. They now have the lowest ranked defense in the NFL. That probably won't be repeated this week, but they are a bad defense and likely to get worse, with two more starters (CB Carlos Rogers and safety LaRon Landry) likely out from an already poor secondary. Randy Moss should finally have some opportunities in this game after last week, when the cornerbacks used press coverage against him and denied him any involvement in the game. He has had no more than 30 yards in catches in any of the last three games. Vince Young will be playing QB this week with Collins out with a bad calf, and Washington will struggle to stop his mobility and the running of Chris Johnson, as they allow over 110 yards per game on the ground at 4.6 per carry. Tennessee scores well at home, the weather forecast is mild with little wind and with Tennessee averaging over 27 points per game (OVER 13-5-1 at home), it won't take much help from McNabb and company to get us past this number. With Washington unable to run the ball, McNabb will be forced to put the ball in the air more than usual, and turnovers will likely offer some short fields and scores. The last Titan home game saw 56 points scored.
Titans 35, Redskins 21.
Comments
You are solid!!!
Miss 21 in a row, call me!!!
Best
It's A Marathon, Baby!!!
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 0-2, -4.4 Units
NFL 0-2, -4.4 Units
Total 0-4, -8.8 Units (All Plays @ 2 Units)
Lines from DonBest, using Bookmaker current listings...
#357 Navy +3
East Carolina has a defense that make mothers cry and now face an unfamiliar foe that runs an offense they rarely see. That Navy offense eats clock, moves the chains and will break some long runs when the Pirates fail in gap control, which they will. It will be tougher for the ECU offense to get any type of rhythm if Navy holds the ball for long stretches (13th in NCAA in Time of Possession) and moves it up and down the field. Navy came out flat against Duke last week off their win vs. Notre Dame, which could be expected but they fought back after being down early and nearly pulled out the win. Navy rushes for nearly five yards a carry, while ECU allows almost that much. Teams in that role are solid underdogs when the better running team gets points. Navy is a better offense AND defense by over 100 yards each. Both teams are on the cusp of bowl eligibility wit five wins each, but ECU will likely have to wait another week to get theirs. They have three CUSA games on deck and coming off a tough loss in conference to Central Florida, they will likely not focus as much on this mid-season non conference game stuck in between the CUSA slate and scheme up to stop an option offense they won't face all season other than this week. ECU also has to play again on Thursday against UAB and I would guess that is where a fair amount of their attention and film study is going.
This situation sets up very poorly for ECU with schedule, style of play and coming off that tough loss last week. Navy and all military schools have a unique focus and drive that scholarship athletes at other schools don't possess, and they tend to be single-minded from game to game, never losing sight of the prize. Navy failed in a favorite role last week which is not their strong suit, but they are always a dangerous underdog and they haven't lost B2B games under this coach since the 2nd and 3rd games in his first season. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs actually threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's last week, and with the horrible ECU pass defense, you may see some more of that out of this option team this week as well. Last time these teams met in 2007, navy ran for over 440 yards, and ECU's defense hasn't improved one bit since then even though the players may be different. ECU allows 37 points per game, ranking 111th in scoring D, 92nd against the run and 105th overall. Navy is 42-22 ATS away from home since 2002. Navy wins straight up.
Navy 33, ECU 28.
Best of Luck,
Mychal
Advantage Sports
talked to a buddy of mine that loved Navy last week and the first thing out of my mouth was "didn't they beat Notre Dame last week?"
think we get a good price on Navy based on their performance in an expected letdown game
T.
I looked at that game early in the week, liked Army +... strength of schedule had me off a bit... someone had a great, insightful writeup on that game here, MrEast I think was his name... take a read for some good info.
BOL
Well, it's not like I'm killing it on here so far...
You think more people go to games to tailgate when the weather gets colder?
NCAA 1-2, -2.4 Units
NFL 0-2, -4.4 Units
Total 1-4, -6.8 Units (All Plays @ 2 Units)
Lines from DonBest, using Bookmaker current listings...
#148 Kentucky -14.5
We went against Vandy last week based on the complete breakdown of the offense, ( the writeup of last week still applies to the Vandy team) which hadn't really done much all year anyway. But they were in a tough spot against a Florida team that had gotten the offense together during their bye week and had improved enough to beat UGA in overtime and only lay 14.5 at Vandy, the best line we may ever see in that matchup. Now they travel and get more points, but this team is cooked. they have now lost the best two running backs (the other went down last week) and the defense has collapsed under the weight of trying to support the offense. Kentucky is priced the same as Florida when they were a road favorite, which may seem like an overlay. However, if you have watched Vandy over the past few weeks, this team is done. They haven't QUIT, they are an outstanding and focused team with probably the smartest athletes in the whole SEC. But the season, injury and the conference, plus their coach quitting right before fall practice started has beaten them down. I don't know that they could beat a Sun Belt team now. Kentucky put up 34 against Auburn here and 31 on UGA and South Carolina. They are still fighting for that magical sixth win (bowl eligibility), and they have to travel next week, so this game is big. Vandy won't likely get over 13 points and Kentucky gets RB Derrick Locke back today for an added weapon... the Vandy relief coaching staff probably knows they are done after this year and the talent level, even at Kentucky is so far superior. If this was Florida or Alabama, they would probably back off and know that a pounding won't help the BCS standing, but UK has a 5-5 record and wants to get in to a better bowl, so style points matter now when you aren't in the Top 15.Kentucky has been on a tough run against the top SEC teams, but this is a beatdown waiting to happen.
Kentucky 51, Vanderbilt 6.
Back tomorrow if I see an NFL winner for the forum...
Cheers,
Mychal
Advantage Sports
Mychal - With the new recordkeeping rules, we're asking that everyone posts their primary record as an "unweighted" record. You're certainly welcome to keep a weighted record as well, but if every play is going to be 2 units for you, it might just be easier to call everything one unit (or if you're going to change up the units, post the record both weighted and unweighted). Thanks a lot and good luck today.
2010 NFL/NCAA Football Posted Selections at Betting Talk
NCAA 2-2, -0.2 Units
NFL 0-2, -2.2 Units
Total 2-4, -2.4 Units
#219 Titans OVER 42.5
The Chad Henne Experiment has been shelved for now, and Chad Pennington will make his first start since Week Three of last year. Henne was only part of the problem, however. The Dolphins special teams are terrible and the secondary has been torched of late, so they cut a former #1 draft pick in Jason Allen and picked up corner Al Harris, 36 years old and who was released by Green Bay. That may not be much of an improvement. Speaking of picking up old released players, Tennessee is the third team this year to have Randy Moss, of food critic fame. Last time Moss was in Miami, he was cussing out the Patriots offensive coordinator at halftime because they were winning and he wasn't the show. The Titans lost their top wideout, Kenny Britt to a hamstring pull so Moss is supposed to pick up the slack. One issue is that the reason he was held catchless in that last game with the Pats against the Dolphins due to the physical corner play of Vontae Davis. If he can at least keep Miami from stacking the box to stop Chris Johnson, it will help. It doesn't make any difference in this play if Vince Young or Kerry Collins start for the Titans, they both can move the offense and bring different skills that will help against the Miami defense. That D that had started the year so strongly is slipping fast, some due to injury and some to the offense leaving them in bad spots. The Titans are actually the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL right now and are coming off their bye week. However, the Titan secondary is struggling like the Dolphins are, and if Pennington can get the ball to Brandon Marshall they should hold up well in this contest but their defense has allowed an average of 30 points per game at home in the last five games played there. This game should top 50 easy.
Titans 28, Dolphins 26.
Have a great day, everyone. Off to the sportbook to watch this mess.
Mychal
Advantage Sports
NCAA 2-2, -0.2 Units
NFL 1-2, -1.2 Units
Total 3-4, -1.4 Units
Finally catching up, back during the week. The record is current and updated.
NCAA 2-2, -0.2 Units
NFL 1-2, -1.2 Units
Total 3-4, -1.4 Units
#415 Redskins OVER 44
The country had a chance to witness the Redskins defense last Monday night, when they allowed 28 first quarter points to be down 28-0 before most people had settled in their seats. That was the first time in NFL history that a home team had been down 28-0 in the first quarter. It didn't get any better from there, they gave up another on the first play of the 2nd quarter to go down 35-0, and the rout was on. They now have the lowest ranked defense in the NFL. That probably won't be repeated this week, but they are a bad defense and likely to get worse, with two more starters (CB Carlos Rogers and safety LaRon Landry) likely out from an already poor secondary. Randy Moss should finally have some opportunities in this game after last week, when the cornerbacks used press coverage against him and denied him any involvement in the game. He has had no more than 30 yards in catches in any of the last three games. Vince Young will be playing QB this week with Collins out with a bad calf, and Washington will struggle to stop his mobility and the running of Chris Johnson, as they allow over 110 yards per game on the ground at 4.6 per carry. Tennessee scores well at home, the weather forecast is mild with little wind and with Tennessee averaging over 27 points per game (OVER 13-5-1 at home), it won't take much help from McNabb and company to get us past this number. With Washington unable to run the ball, McNabb will be forced to put the ball in the air more than usual, and turnovers will likely offer some short fields and scores. The last Titan home game saw 56 points scored.
Titans 35, Redskins 21.
Have a great day,
Mychal
Advantage Sports