Big Dog
Reznor
Senior Member
Saw you posted this line method of betting in Vegasinsider's thread.
I normally use .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5 with each of these as units from 1/2 to 1 1/2.
The reason is that you can actually use any two numbers in the line and this gives you a range of 1 unit (.5 + .5) to 3 units (1.5 + 1.5) so that you can play more or less depending on the value and confidence level. Also, after a loss, you can use one of the 1/2 units + whatever number you like so that risk is reduced and you still clear two numbers.
In this case, there are 12 numbers but 10 units where as with your 5 numbers being the same, it's like having 5 units. So, with what I have, it's twice the units with a little over twice the numbers but with less risk should you lose some of the first games.
My question is if you lose, say a 1.5 unit bet, do you add something to the line, like another 1.5 What if you lose a 3 unit bet do you add a 3 to the line?
I normally use .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5 with each of these as units from 1/2 to 1 1/2.
The reason is that you can actually use any two numbers in the line and this gives you a range of 1 unit (.5 + .5) to 3 units (1.5 + 1.5) so that you can play more or less depending on the value and confidence level. Also, after a loss, you can use one of the 1/2 units + whatever number you like so that risk is reduced and you still clear two numbers.
In this case, there are 12 numbers but 10 units where as with your 5 numbers being the same, it's like having 5 units. So, with what I have, it's twice the units with a little over twice the numbers but with less risk should you lose some of the first games.
My question is if you lose, say a 1.5 unit bet, do you add something to the line, like another 1.5 What if you lose a 3 unit bet do you add a 3 to the line?
Comments
First, on how the line works. Select any 2 numbers for your pick. Based on confidence level, you can use 1 unit (.5 + .5) to 3 units (1.5 + 1.5).
Now, if you win, cancel those 2 numbers. If you lose, add that number plus the juice to your line.
And something to remember is that the lines can be modified at any time to suit what you are comfortable with. For example, should you lose a 3 unit play but do not like going over 3 units, then split it into two smaller numbers. The only qualification for changing the numbers is to keep the total units the same. If you had 10 units in your line and changed the numbers, the new line should also equal 10 units. Otherwise, you will change your goal with each line change.
The math behind this is pretty simple. If you win 50% of the time, you will cancel all of the numbers with the number of picks equal to how many numbers you have. In the above example, you have 12 numbers so it will take 12 picks to clear the line with a 50% win ratio.
We have 4 factors here in setting a goal. The are the win % ratio, number of units to win for our goal, time frame based on number of picks and the risk.
Goal. The goal in the above line is to win 10 units over 6 days with an average of two picks per day.
Win Ratio. You will need to win 50% of your picks over time to clear the line. But, something else to remember is that even if your picks win less than 50% of the time you can still clear the line. Using casino table games for example, where your odds of winning are less than 50%, you will still clear a small line of 10 numbers 81.4 % of the time.
Time Frame. The time frame is measured in the number of picks required to clear the line and with a 50% win ratio is equal to the amount of numbers in your line. If you win over 50% then it will take less picks. To relate that to days, if you have 12 picks per week, then on average it will take one week to clear a line with 12 numbers.
Risk. Risk is based on the number of units put at risk with a pick. The lower the unit amount, the lower the risk. So, if you use 1/2 of 1% of your bankroll, you will risk (in the above example) 1/2 % to 1 1/2 % of your bankroll with each pick. So, this is a pretty low risk system.
Also, a word about re-doing or modifying the line during a losing streak.
Let's say you start out with the above line but lose your first 3 picks for 1 1/2 units each. Then, disregarding juice, your line would be:
.5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5
Your line now has 15 numbers and totals 14 1/2 units. If you want to reduce risk until you got back on the winning track, then for example, you could take the 3 losses and make 1 unit from each of the 1 1/2 units by adding three 0.5s.
The line would now look like this:
.5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 1, 1, 1
The number of units is still 14 1/2 but you have reduced the average amount per wager at the cost of adding more numbers thus increasing the time required to clear the line.
I hope this answers your question. If you try this, I suggest you do it in a very small way until you see how it works for you.
In any event, good luck !
The line that I'm currently demonstrating in my thread started out just before the half way point in the MLB season and had several rows totaling about 50 numbers. We reached our initial goal of winning 70 units and then added even more numbers for a new goal of winning 100 units. We are now about 15 units away from that goal. And, in consideration of those that were following my unit plays, I've reduced the risk by splitting numbers a half a dozen times over the course of the demo.