Basic Strategy NFL 6-Point Teasers
Goats
Head Moderator
It's become apparent from the 'JakeNHL' thread that many of the posters on this forum are unfamiliar with NFL teaser betting. This is a simple but profitable weapon that sharps have been using for years. They have been discussed ad nauseum at other forums and there are even chapters in books devoted to them, so I'm not going to give a dissertation or cite the math, but here's the short version...
Since different numbers are more likely to land than other numbers, especially in the NFL, 'capturing' these numbers with a 6-point teaser creates a +EV wager. It's common knowledge that the 3 and 7 are extremely valuable since so many games are decided by a FG or TD. Therefore, anytime we can cross over those two KEY numbers with a teaser, we're gaining more value than is being charged, provided you get a good price.
Good prices for 6-point teasers are +100 for 2-teamers or +180 for 3-teamers. The former was easy to find a few years ago, but has since all but disappeared at major offshores. The latter can still be found, however. Here are the main basic strategy sibsets you should be looking to tease...
1. Tease all +1.5 to +2.5 dogs up.
2. Tease all HOME -7.5 to -8.5 favs down.
Large road favs have not done as well, but if you need another candidate, they're not awful. 7-point home favs also aren't a bad choice if you need another leg.
There are other subsets that have been historically profitable and if you play around with a database you can further research the impact of totals, divisional games, etc. However, consider the above info. as a solid primer course. Unless they have a reason to strongly favor the other side, many pros will be blindly teasing a large % of the teams that fall into the above subsets.
Hope this helps. If you have any questions, fire away, but please keep them constructive.
I'm not interested in hearing how bookies love teaser bettors. The certainly do, much like they like all square action, but go ask any major offshore if they like booking teasers from the above subsets. There's a reason that +100 2-teamers have just about vanished and that more and more books are starting to hang anti-teaser lines like -9EV instead of -8.5 so that you can't capture the 3 with a 6-point teaser. 5Dimes has been doing this for years, then Pinnacle, now several books.
Since different numbers are more likely to land than other numbers, especially in the NFL, 'capturing' these numbers with a 6-point teaser creates a +EV wager. It's common knowledge that the 3 and 7 are extremely valuable since so many games are decided by a FG or TD. Therefore, anytime we can cross over those two KEY numbers with a teaser, we're gaining more value than is being charged, provided you get a good price.
Good prices for 6-point teasers are +100 for 2-teamers or +180 for 3-teamers. The former was easy to find a few years ago, but has since all but disappeared at major offshores. The latter can still be found, however. Here are the main basic strategy sibsets you should be looking to tease...
1. Tease all +1.5 to +2.5 dogs up.
2. Tease all HOME -7.5 to -8.5 favs down.
Large road favs have not done as well, but if you need another candidate, they're not awful. 7-point home favs also aren't a bad choice if you need another leg.
There are other subsets that have been historically profitable and if you play around with a database you can further research the impact of totals, divisional games, etc. However, consider the above info. as a solid primer course. Unless they have a reason to strongly favor the other side, many pros will be blindly teasing a large % of the teams that fall into the above subsets.
Hope this helps. If you have any questions, fire away, but please keep them constructive.
I'm not interested in hearing how bookies love teaser bettors. The certainly do, much like they like all square action, but go ask any major offshore if they like booking teasers from the above subsets. There's a reason that +100 2-teamers have just about vanished and that more and more books are starting to hang anti-teaser lines like -9EV instead of -8.5 so that you can't capture the 3 with a 6-point teaser. 5Dimes has been doing this for years, then Pinnacle, now several books.
Comments
would be an example of what you would look as one of the three teams in a 10 point teaser? Thanks in advance for your input.
On a ten point 3 team teaser, would it be smarter to bet the big fav down or the big dog higher?
I know alot has to do with the circumstances i.e: If brady was out and line was say -11 one would put the bills at +21 I would think.
Not that the above would happen if brady was out I was just using it as an example. But if he was out I would put the bills at +21 and if he was in I would put the Patsys at -1.
Is that proper thinking?
I do play 10 point teasers from time to time and wanted to see if I was on the right page.
The only 10-pointer subset I know off the top of my head and don't mind sharing would be if you found 3 favs in the 10-12.5 pt range to tease down under 3.
Teasing big dogs up certainly looks attractive, but adding 10 pts to any spread makes it look good. The value just usually isn't there in the numbers you are picking up relative to the cost of paying -110 or worse and needing to win all 3 legs.
In general, unless you're using a database of historical results to generate your plays, you're probably better off leaving 10-point teasers alone.
See my response to SD. Again, my general answer would be to leave them alone unless you're using a database to generate historically profitable subsets. When I talk about basic strategy subsets, I'm ignoring all handicapping. These plays are just based on the historical math.
Tease Carolina to +7.5 vs. PHI
Indy to -1 vs. Jacksonville
Looks pretty good to me
so,find the game for the 10 point not going to tie
gl
20-18 SU and 26-12 ATS 68%. but then i noticed Goats said HOME FAVS only, so got rid of some them. then the numbers looked like this
15-16 SU
21-10 ATS 68%
there were more than one team 9 of 17 weekends, for a total of 28 games. so the record of 21-10 ATS means nothing, but those 28 games went 20-8 ATS 71%.
so the odds of hitting those blind is 51%.
feel free to check my results, they may be off by a game here or there.
If I am understanding your correctly HP...The 20-8 ATS includes the 6 Points right?...If so, your example would result in 14 Teasers. 28 divided by 2. And you would have lost 8 of them unless you had lost 2 of them in the same teaser...so the record on these would be 6-8..
Your post is a bit confusing so forgive me if I am the idiot...lol..
You want to include as much data as possible when doing research, i.e. looking at the last 5 or 10 or 15 years... which, trust me, has already been done, that's how those subsets were formulated.
The question remaining is will those subsets continue to be profitable going forward? That's for you to decide.
seems a little off to me......
Sample size is a mathematical issue that really has nothing to do with gambling, but rather any facet of statistics. I'm not mathy enough to do the calculations, but basically there's a margin of error for every sample of data... so we have to say "there is an X% chance that this subset is profitable or this capper is a winner (as opposed to randomly lucky)." If the sample size is not sufficiently large enough, X is too small, and we have no idea if the results are due to variance or if they actually have some meaning.
I don't know the specifics of what seems off to you Howard, but since your response came after mine, I figured I would give you my take on the issue. There's no conspiracy theory on my end, the math is the math.
You say, "Betting these teasers are a successful tool many professional gamblers use successfully"
Homer says, "Here are some numbers to show that it is not so successful last year"
Do you respond, "But longterm they hit at X percent, or someone who primarily bets teasers has used them to X level of success"?
no, it comes off more as you are saying, "Ignore the numbers you have, they mean nothing (even though they are the ONLY FACTS or STATS presented), and just take my word for it"
This is not an attack on you or your argument, like I said, I am just pointing out what is an increasing trend around here.....people say, I was 21-7 last year NFL, but they are the same people to criticique others for using a smaller sample in their record keeping......and there is a whole lot of "take my word for it and don't disagree with me, or present arguments to the contrary" going around.....
I always go under the assumption that all viewpoints and opinions are welcome and valid and make the forum better off, and those that are incorrect or MISLEADING will be proven so, and people can make up their own decisions......but it seems now their is this trend towards, sit and listen and dont disagree or present any argument to the contrary of what is being said or you will be either called an idiot, immediately dismissed as using a faulty sample or trying to "stir things up", or if it is someone that is looked highly upon that you are disagreeing with (not trying to pick a fight with, or insulting.......just disagreeing with) you will be threatened with banishment or suspension......
thats what i meant by seems a little off to me.....I was just using ur thread as an example.......
and I am sorry for calling you GOAT instead of Goats.......we had a forum member GOAT and it just stuck in my head......wont happen again!
No, stay away from CFB teasers. The higher totals (and other factors) make each number worth less and thus teasers aren't worth it.*
*NOTE: I believe there are some exceptions, like low-totalled SEC games, but they're few and far between.
Sorry, you're right, I should have presented the long-term winning %'s. I don't have them handy, I'd have to look for them. Short of that, yes, I'm asking you to trust me. Long-term, these subsets have hit at a high enough rate to be +EV. I'm also asking you to trust me when I say that most pros use these subsets.
I agree that it would be extremely hypocritical for someone to cite a record with a tiny sample size as meaningful and then use the opposite argument. I'd certainly call someone out on something like that. As I mentioned before, the math is the math.
At -110 break-even win rate is 72.4%
To tease three teams at +180 the break even win rate is 70.9%
3-1
0-2
1-1
4-0
2-1
2-0
1-2
2-0
5-1
so a 7-1 run over last two weeks, but an 8 game sample is way to small. and while it means little, my stats teachers always enforced a min sample size of 30 to validate results. and those are just the games, so you would have had to decide what to do on the days when there were 3 teams fitting criteria.
sorry for stirring up you guys up. not the intention. here to win. and hopefully we all remember my feelings and research on teasers on LY.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/showthread.php?t=139305