15 Dime Phillies
It's an easy question I pose with the same connotation every time ... but if the Phillies are going to blast the Padres on a night their ace takes the mound - albeit he was sick and all - what do you think happens against a hurler who struggled in one of his worst starts of the season against the Phillies back in April?I am a big fan of Chris Young, absolutely. But the Phillies terrorized the right-hander back on April 17, shredding him for seven runs and nine hits over 3-2/3 innings. Amazingly, the Pads came back to win that game, 8-7, but that just tells me the defending champs will want to avenge that loss.And if you haven't noticed, I've been all over J.A. Happ, missing out with one release because he was scratched from his start, and following him since. He's now 3-0 and makes his third start since Chan Ho Park was put in the bullpen. He finally notched his first victory as a starter this season, after limiting the Nationals to just three runs and three hits spanning 5-1/3 innings last Friday.Bottom line with this team, it's hitting the hell out of the ball, and that should carry over to tonight. It hit three home runs off Padres relievers, and now hit five dongs in the series. The Phils have talltallied 33 runs and batted .315 in their last five games.While Raul Ibanez cracked two long balls last night, the Flyin Hawaiian - Shane Victorino - is hitting .476 (10-for-21) with two doubles, a triple and six runs scored and Chase Utley is hitting .389 (7-for-18) with two doubles, a home run, six runs scored and five RBI during the run.Take the road team in this one, as the Phils are the solid choice to wrap this sweep.
5 Dime Mets
Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I know the Mets have lost seven of their last nine on the road; but Mike Pelfrey is going to bail them out tonight and lead them to the win. He's been pitching good enough to win over his last four starts, going 0-1 with a 2.28 ERA; but he's received only four runs of support. So what makes tonight so different? Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf, who is looking to avoid a personal three-game losing streak after getting knocked around by the Astros last Friday, when he gave up four uns and eight hits over five innings in a 6-1 loss. The Mets are a much better team than we've seen lately, and though they're dinged up to all hell, they should be able to muster up enough offense in order to get past the lowly Pirates.
5 Dime Giants
Anybody know who Randy Johnson earned his first Major League victory with? Hint: the team doesn't even exist any longer. He won No. 1 playing for the Expos. Tonight he'll win No. 300 against the same franchise, just now in the nation's capital. All the honors this guy has - World Series ring, 5 Cys, two no-no's, a perfect game, he's second all-time with 4,843 strikeouts - I think it's time he notches this milestone win. The lanky fireballer has held two straight foes to one run and has a 2.99 ERA against this franchise over his entire career. That includes a May 11 win this season. Besides, Washington is a mess, as the organization fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire yesterday, it ranks last in the bigs with a 5.67 ERA and is mired in a 4-18 slump since May 10. Tonight is all about the Big Unit, so I'll play the Giants
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. This line has fallen from it's opening number and I feel we're now getting excellent value with the Padres. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series but I expect them to have some real trouble scoring runs in this evening's finale. Chris Young goes for San Diego and he's a perfect 4-0 (Padres are 5-0) in five home starts. While averaging greater than six innings per start and going a minimum of six in each, Young allowed two earned runs or less in four of those five starts and three in the other. His home ERA for the season is 2.25. His WHIP is 1.00 and he's got 28 K's to go along with just nine walks. The Padres won those games by a combined score of 23-9, most recently a 7-2 winner over Lilly and the Cubs. Looking back further and we find that Young has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 straight home starts, dating back to September of 2007, and 19 of his last 20 here. He went a minimum of six innings in 17 of those 20 games. That includes a 1-0 shutout victory vs. Cole Hamels in his lone home start vs. the Phillies (on 7/19/07) during that stretch. That was Young's only career home start vs. the Phillies. However, he has also made a few starts at Philadelphia. While Young did get roughed up (SD still won) at Philadelphia back in April, the Padres are still 3-1 in his four starts against the Phillies, including 3-0 the most recent three. Happ has done a solid job since joining the starting rotation, recording a 3.97 ERA in two starts. However, that's still a very small sample size compared to the type of consistent success that Young has enjoyed here. With the Padres looking to avoid the sweep and the Phillies potentially looking ahead to the Dodgers and Mets - (they play at LA tomorrow and series is followed by one at NY; the Dodgers are currently the top team in the majors and the Mets are the Phillies' primary division rival) - I'm backing Young and the home team. *NL GOW
Maddux Sports
#903 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco +105
#908 - MLB - 3 units on Atlanta -131
#914 - MLB - 3 units on San Diego -113
#924 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay -142
#927 - MLB - 3 units on Oakland +119
#929 - MLB - 3 units on Baltimore +118
WUNDERDOG SIDE FOR THE NBA PLAYOFF GAME EARLIER RELEASE
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Orlando +6 (-110)
The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavaliers, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mismatches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skill set and confidence to stay close with Los Angeles in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as an underdog. Want evidence of the Lakers propensity to under perform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. Take Orlando plus the points here.
Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, June 6th, 2009
Belmont Stakes ONLY Race 1 -
Belmont Stakes 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Belmont Stakes is by far the toughest of the three Triple Crown races to win. Horses running in the Kentucky Derby are asked to travel 1 ¼ miles for the first time in their careers. In the Preakness they cut back a sixteenth of mile. But The Belmont Stakes, has been called "The Test of Champions", because, those horses, still standing after the rigors of the Triple Crown, are asked to travel 1 ½ miles. The race starts in front of the stands. The gate is positioned right by the finish line. Horse s must run around the entire track once, with its wide sweeping turns and over Belmont dirt, which can often be deep and tiring. That is why Belmont is referred to as "Big Sandy". Horses who ran in the Derby and Preakness, have only three weeks to recover in time, to be at their best for the third leg of racings Triple Crown.
It takes an extraordinary horse to win all three legs. There have been only eleven horses to have accomplished this great feat. Sir Barton was the first to do it in 1919. The forties proved to be the first decade which produced four Triple Crown winners. Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), and Citation (1948). It took twenty five years for the next Triple Crown winner, when Secretariat won by the length of the stretch in 1973. Four years later Seattle Slew won it, and in 1978 Affirmed overcame an intense stretch battle to narrowly out game his nemesis, Alydar. Now, thirty one years later, there has not been a horse to win all three races. There have been forty five horses who have won two out of the three legs of the Triple Crown. Twenty one horses won the Derby and the Preakness, only to fall short in the Belmont Stakes. There are very few races all year that are run at 1 ½ miles and beyond. Except for those three year olds who run in the Belmont, you will only see older gladiators run these marathon distances.
Calvin Borel has a chance to be a Triple Crown winner as a jockey if he wins the Belmont aboard Mine That Bird, whom he rode to victory in the Kentucky Derby. He rode the filly, Rachel Alexandra, to a game victory in the Preakness. According to Borel in Mondays Daily Racing Form, he stated, Were going to win it, no questions asked. He is the hottest rider in the country at the present time and has an abundance of confidence. If Borel is so sure Mine That Bird cannot lose the Belmont, then we should sell all our stocks, empty out our bank accounts, and break our piggy banks, to run to the windows, to be the first one in line to collect. Mine That bird is a deserving favorite, as he has accomplished more in two Triple Crown races than any of his opposition. But we must not forget that he was 50-1 when he won the Derby, closing up a gold rail while relishing the Churchill slop. The Bird was 6-1 in the Preakness when he ran second. He did have trouble in the race and probably would have won, if the race was a bit longer, but the truth of the matter is that Rachel Alexandra did all the dirty work for horses to close into, as a result of the quick early fractions she set. Borel should take a chapter out of the Richard Dutrow Jr. Holy Scriptures, thou shall never assume that you can predict destiny, especially in thoroughbred horse racing. Dutow stated before the Belmont, that Big Brown was a lock, and everyone else is running for second money. Obviously something went amiss that day with Big Brown, as he pulled up early in the race. Borel does not have much experience riding at Belmont Park, let alone traveling 1 ½ miles on horseback over "Big Sandy". Mine That Bird has excelled since being taken well off the pace and making one sustained late run. This type of running style is usually at a disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes, especially if the early fractions are not fast, and if the track is speed favoring.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1
2 DUNKIRK 4/1
3 MR. HOT STUFF 15/1
4 SUMMER BIRD 12/1
5 LUV GOV 20/1
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1
8 FLYING PRIVATE 12/1
9 MINER'S ESCAPE 15/1
10 BRAVE VICTORY 15/1
First Selection: (2) DUNKIRK (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Does anyone remember The Green Monkey? I certainly do. His owners, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith laid out a cool sixteen million for the colt. Unfortunately, The Green Monkey had trouble outrunning his shadow, and anything else on a racetrack for that matter. These same connections waded once again into the deep end of the yearling pool, doling a mere $3.7 million for Dunkirk, a paltry sum, when considering how much they spent for their previous purchase. Only this time, they bought themselves a runner.
Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridleds Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didnt know all that. When Gomez chirped to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired pulling up after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing catch-up due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a better than it looked performance.
Dunkirks connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmonts, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
Second Selection: (6) CHARITABLE MAN (Mclaughlin Kiaran P/Garcia A)
If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure.
Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Mans victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasnt long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, dont respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a key stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a live wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miners Escape, who I would consider cheap speed, he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
Third Selection: (7) MINE THAT BIRD (Woolley Bennie L Jr/Borel C H)
If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didnt. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were over the top and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I dont feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. Its very possible, but my money says he wont. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
Fourth Selection: (1) CHOCOLATE CANDY (Hollendorfer Jerry/Gomez G K)
If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial king of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an in the money finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
Fifth Selection: (4) SUMMER BIRD (Ice Tim A/Desormeaux K J)
Of all the longshots entered in the Belmont Stakes, Summer Bird is the most interesting. Trainer Tim Ice does not start many horses, but he wins a high percentage of races. Both Ice and Summer Bird's owners, could never envision, that Summer Bird would accomplish as much as he has in such a short period of time. It took him two races to break his maiden. Twenty two days later, Summer Bird was asked to take a huge leap of faith into the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, facing the likes of Papa Clem and Old Fashioned, who ended up running 1-2. There were others who had more racing experience as well. Summer Bird, sent off at 26-1, was a fast closing third, rallying from dead last, while racing very wide throughout. If the race was a bit longer, he probably would have sprung the upset. If dreams come true and miracles happen, then Summer Bird was the poster child for both. Just ask the connections of Mine That Bird. Summer Bird did not train well at Churchill Downs in the days leading up to the Kentucky, but nevertheless, he ran a respectable sixth, beaten thirteen lengths, over a sloppy track he had never raced over.
What should we expect from Summer Bird in the Belmont Stakes? Summer Birds sire is Birdstone, (also the sire of Mine That Bird), who upset Smarty Jones quest for racings Triple Crown, in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Birdstones father, Grindstone, won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. Summer Birds mother, Hong Kong Squall, was winless in nine starts, but her dad Summer Squall ran second in the 1990 Kentucky Derby, as well as winning several Graded stakes going a distance of ground. Based on his pedigree, Summer Bird should be able to handle the 1 ½ mile distance of the Belmont. He did not train particularly well at Belmont Park, until his workout last weekend, with new rider Kent Desormeaux. He replaces Rosier, who rode him in his first three starts. Needless to say, this is a monumental rider change. Desormeaux indicated that Summer Bird handled the track fantastically. Hes fit and ready.He's a happy, healthy horse. There are too many factors to suggest that Summer Bird has a chance to run better than his big odds will suggest, and therefore, he will be included underneath is some of my trifectas.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(8) FLYING PRIVATE (Lukas D Wayne/Leparoux Julien R)
Flying Private has only a maiden win to his credit in twelve starts, and that lone victory was at six furlongs. His best career effort was in the Grade 2 Lanes End, when he was second to Hold Me Back at 24-1 over a synthetic surface. Flying Private was eligible to run in the Derby,only because he accumulated enough money in that graded stake. Flying Private was sired by Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. His dams sire, is Unbridled, who was also a Kentucky Derby winner. You would think that because of his strong distance pedigree that he would steadily improve the further he goes. This was not the case until his last start in the Preakness, where Flying Private made up ground at every call, to run fourth, beaten four lengths. It was his best career effort, going 1 3/16 miles. He did attempt to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. I must attribute this poor effort, to his disdain for a sloppy track, when he ran last of nineteen, beaten a country mile. Flying Private has proven that he needs a dry track, which he will get on Saturday.
What should we expect from Flying Private in the Belmont Stakes? Unlike his uncoupled stable mate, Luv Gov, this $700,000 yearling purchase, could clunk up for a piece, even though I do prefer others. Flying Private has more speed than what he showed in the Derby and Preakness, and should be more forwardly placed in the Belmont. Rather than run 1 ½ miles on Saturday, it would have been more prudent to place Flying Private in a much softer spot where he could earn his second career victory, which would be a huge confidence builder. Its been a long time between drinks, from his maiden score last August at six furlongs, to the Belmont Stakes, where he will be making his eighth start this year. This is quite a lot, in less than half a year. Trainer Wayne Lukas has not been the dominant force he was in the 80s and 90s, but in major stakes races, he seems to be able to get his horses to peak. I am not sure this is the case with Flying Private. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath in some trifectas, just in case he turned the corner in the Preakness.
(3) MR. HOT STUFF (Harty Eoin/Prado E S)
It is very difficult for me to pick Mr. Hot Stuff to win the Belmont Stakes. First and foremost, is that he has only one career win, and that came over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita, going one mile. He has eight career starts, and seven have come in southern California over polytrack and Pro-Ride. His lone dirt start was in the Kentucky Derby, where he ran fifteenth, beaten twenty three lengths. The verdict is still out whether or not that effort can be excused, because of the sloppy track he was encountering for the first time. He also had the misfortune of being bumped and squeezed at the start. Mr. Hot Stuffs best race was two starts back in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles, where he ran a good third to Pionnerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy. He was beaten just two lengths that afternoon. Mr. Hot Stuff ran his last 1/8th of a mile in a solid: 12 1/5 seconds, and then galloped out well past the wire, suggesting that he should be able to handle a longer distance.
What should we expect from Mr. Hot Stuff in the Belmont Stakes? He has no early speed, and will have to close from far off the pace if he is to be a factor. This type of running style does not win many "Test of the Champions at Belmont. Mr. Hot Stuff could benefit stretching out further. The only problem is that he has not shown he can handle conventional dirt. I cannot fathom him closing with Mine That Bird and others, and out finishing them. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath in trifectas, as it is possible that he can clunk up for a piece.
(9) MINER'S ESCAPE (Zito Nicholas P/Lezcano Jose)
Trainer Nick Zito has two horses entered in this years Belmont Stakes, Miners Escape and Brave Victory. Both are expected to be longshots to win. What I love about Zito, is that if he has the guns, he will fire. He has said often said, if you dont run, you can't win. Zito backed up this statement, upsetting Big Brown in last years Belmont with Da Tara, who was 38-1. Da' Tara was owned by Robert LaPenta, who also owns Miners Escape. In 2004, Zito orchestrated the defeat of the 2-5 favorite Smarty Jones, with 36-1 shot Birdstone. Ironically, in both instances, Zito prevented both horses, from winning the coveted Triple Crown.
Miners Escape comes off two decisive wins, a maiden score March 14 at Gulfstream Park, and on May 2 in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico, which served as a prep race for the Preakness, and run two weeks later over the same track. Zito elected to bypass the Preakness, and instead point Miners Escape for the Belmont. It was a wise decision. Both victories were at the 1 1/8 mile distance, proving that he is most effective going a distance of ground over conventional dirt. Miners Escape has never run at Belmont, but has worked over the track, where Zito is stable all year.
What should we expect from Miners Escape in the Belmont Stakes? In both his wins, he stalked a slow pace from the outset. With the exception of Charitable Man, there is not much early speed in the race. Miners Escape has proven that he is good enough to stick around until the far turn, but at that point, the pace will quicken, and it is unlikely that he can fend off those horses that will be rallying from off the pace. He is bred on both sides to stay the 1 ½ mile distance, but is simply overmatched in this spot. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath on some trifecta tickets, simply because Zito has proven in the past, that no matter circumstances, he has an uncanny knack at having his horses dramatically improve when least expected. Just ask Da Tara and Birdstone if you dont believe me.
(10) BRAVE VICTORY (Zito Nicholas P/Maragh Rajiv)
Brave Victory is the second horse being entered in the Belmont Stakes by trainer Nick Zito. I have documented Zitos prowess in the third leg of the Triple Crown, in my opening paragraph on Minors Escape, who is his other entrant. Both are owned by Robert Lapenta.
Much was expected from Brave Victory when he made his debut last July at Saratoga. He caught slop that day, but, nevertheless, ran a very strong second , despite a troubled start and a wide trip. Zito wheeled him back four weeks later, but once again Brave Victory had to settle for second. He was beaten less than a length by Regal Ransom, who went on to be a top class three year old, and was highly regarded as a contender in this years Kentucky Derby. Brave Victory finally put it all together in his third start, as the overwhelming favorite at Belmont Park. In two subsequent outings, both in graded stakes, he showed nothing. Any hopes of Brave Victory becoming a legitimate Derby contender went up in flames. Zito needed to find a soft spot for Brave Victory to regain his confidence. He found it on Jan 30 at Gulfstream Park, in his first start as a three year old. He overcame a troubled start, and was all out to win against a weak allowance field. If Brave Victorys connections had any hope of making the Derby, it had to start in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes. He was a well beaten fourth, and then returned to be off the board, in the Grade 2 Lexington at Keeneland. It was now clear that Brave Victory had not made much progress from two to three. Even if Zito wanted to go to the Derby, Brave Victory had not accumulated enough graded stakes earnings. It was back to the drawing board.
As a result of Zitos great success in the Belmont Stakes, he felt that if he could get Brave Victory to run a competitive race in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 at Belmont, all systems would be on go for the Belmont. He ran third that day, beaten 5 ½ lengths by Charitable Man, despite his rider losing his whip in mid stretch. It was the kind of performance Zito was looking for.
What should we expect from Brave Victory in the Belmont Stakes? He is clearly not bred to handle the 1 ½ mile distance. Several horses who have had success in Triple Crown races, have outrun their pedigree. Brave Victory wont be one of them. Both his wins have come sprinting. He attempted one turn miles twice as a two year old and backed up willingly both times. In his last two starts, Brave Victory was stretched out to two turns for the first time, both at 1 1/8 miles. He showed no punch at all in the stretch. Brave Victory has done nothing to consider him a major contender to win the Belmont or run second. The only reason for me to consider using him underneath in trifectas, is the respect I have for Zito, in Triple Crown races and that the field is a rather weak one, when you go beyond the three or four major contenders.
(5) LUV GOV (Lukas D Wayne/Mena M)
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is no stranger to the winners circle in Triple Crown races. On Saturday, he will saddle the huge longshot, Luv Gov, for Marylou Whitney. She owned Birdstone, who defeated Smarty Jones at 36-1 in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Luv Gov has just one win to his credit, and that was a decisive maiden victory two starts back in the slop at Pimlico. He was taken back to last, that day, and then sustained a strong closing rally. In previous starts, he showed more speed, which is likely to happen on Saturday, stretching out to 1 ½ miles. In the Preakness, Luv Gov took the overland route and showed absolutely nothing. Since closing tactics worked in his maiden score, the same strategy was employed at Pimlico.
What should we expect from Luv Gov in the Belmont Stakes? He will be no factor whatsoever. Of all the longshots entered, he is one one of those that I rate towards the bottom of the heap. I see no reason why Lukas does not find a weaker spot, than running against far better at 1 ½ miles. Luv Gov gives me no indication that he wants any part of this distance.
Wagering Strategy
* A win bet on (2)DUNKIRK.
* A small saver win bet on (6)CHARITABLE MAN
* Exacta part-wheel 2 over 1-6-7, reverse for half as much
* Much smaller exacta 2-4, small reverse
* Trifecta 2 / 1-6-7 / ALL = $24 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta box 1-2-6-7 = $24 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2 / 1-4-6-7 / 1-4-6-7 = $12 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2-6 / 2-6 / ALL = $16 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2-6 / 2-6 / 1-4-7 = $6 for a $1 wager
TOTAL TRIFECTA WAGER = $82
Trifecta wagers are given in order of preference.
For smaller budgets, eliminate trifecta tickets starting at the
bottom until you reach a wagering level that suits your comfort level.
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Comments
Oakland under
NBA
Big Ticket Orlando + 6
15 Dime- Phillies
5 Dime- Mets
5 Dime- Giants
15 Dime Phillies
It's an easy question I pose with the same connotation every time ... but if the Phillies are going to blast the Padres on a night their ace takes the mound - albeit he was sick and all - what do you think happens against a hurler who struggled in one of his worst starts of the season against the Phillies back in April?I am a big fan of Chris Young, absolutely. But the Phillies terrorized the right-hander back on April 17, shredding him for seven runs and nine hits over 3-2/3 innings. Amazingly, the Pads came back to win that game, 8-7, but that just tells me the defending champs will want to avenge that loss.And if you haven't noticed, I've been all over J.A. Happ, missing out with one release because he was scratched from his start, and following him since. He's now 3-0 and makes his third start since Chan Ho Park was put in the bullpen. He finally notched his first victory as a starter this season, after limiting the Nationals to just three runs and three hits spanning 5-1/3 innings last Friday.Bottom line with this team, it's hitting the hell out of the ball, and that should carry over to tonight. It hit three home runs off Padres relievers, and now hit five dongs in the series. The Phils have talltallied 33 runs and batted .315 in their last five games.While Raul Ibanez cracked two long balls last night, the Flyin Hawaiian - Shane Victorino - is hitting .476 (10-for-21) with two doubles, a triple and six runs scored and Chase Utley is hitting .389 (7-for-18) with two doubles, a home run, six runs scored and five RBI during the run.Take the road team in this one, as the Phils are the solid choice to wrap this sweep.
5 Dime Mets
Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I know the Mets have lost seven of their last nine on the road; but Mike Pelfrey is going to bail them out tonight and lead them to the win. He's been pitching good enough to win over his last four starts, going 0-1 with a 2.28 ERA; but he's received only four runs of support. So what makes tonight so different? Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf, who is looking to avoid a personal three-game losing streak after getting knocked around by the Astros last Friday, when he gave up four uns and eight hits over five innings in a 6-1 loss. The Mets are a much better team than we've seen lately, and though they're dinged up to all hell, they should be able to muster up enough offense in order to get past the lowly Pirates.
5 Dime Giants
Anybody know who Randy Johnson earned his first Major League victory with? Hint: the team doesn't even exist any longer. He won No. 1 playing for the Expos. Tonight he'll win No. 300 against the same franchise, just now in the nation's capital. All the honors this guy has - World Series ring, 5 Cys, two no-no's, a perfect game, he's second all-time with 4,843 strikeouts - I think it's time he notches this milestone win. The lanky fireballer has held two straight foes to one run and has a 2.99 ERA against this franchise over his entire career. That includes a May 11 win this season. Besides, Washington is a mess, as the organization fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire yesterday, it ranks last in the bigs with a 5.67 ERA and is mired in a 4-18 slump since May 10. Tonight is all about the Big Unit, so I'll play the Giants
NL GOW
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. This line has fallen from it's opening number and I feel we're now getting excellent value with the Padres. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series but I expect them to have some real trouble scoring runs in this evening's finale. Chris Young goes for San Diego and he's a perfect 4-0 (Padres are 5-0) in five home starts. While averaging greater than six innings per start and going a minimum of six in each, Young allowed two earned runs or less in four of those five starts and three in the other. His home ERA for the season is 2.25. His WHIP is 1.00 and he's got 28 K's to go along with just nine walks. The Padres won those games by a combined score of 23-9, most recently a 7-2 winner over Lilly and the Cubs. Looking back further and we find that Young has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 straight home starts, dating back to September of 2007, and 19 of his last 20 here. He went a minimum of six innings in 17 of those 20 games. That includes a 1-0 shutout victory vs. Cole Hamels in his lone home start vs. the Phillies (on 7/19/07) during that stretch. That was Young's only career home start vs. the Phillies. However, he has also made a few starts at Philadelphia. While Young did get roughed up (SD still won) at Philadelphia back in April, the Padres are still 3-1 in his four starts against the Phillies, including 3-0 the most recent three. Happ has done a solid job since joining the starting rotation, recording a 3.97 ERA in two starts. However, that's still a very small sample size compared to the type of consistent success that Young has enjoyed here. With the Padres looking to avoid the sweep and the Phillies potentially looking ahead to the Dodgers and Mets - (they play at LA tomorrow and series is followed by one at NY; the Dodgers are currently the top team in the majors and the Mets are the Phillies' primary division rival) - I'm backing Young and the home team. *NL GOW
Blue Chip
Royals/Rays Over
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +185
San Diego Padres -1.5 +180
La Dodgers -1.5 +105
100* Marlins -110
American League Game Of The Week
Boston Red Sox
Team Mismatch--- ATL Braves
Oddsmakers Error ---SF Giants
Bailout Blowout Of The Month ---SD Padres
Chicago Wsox
#903 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco +105
#908 - MLB - 3 units on Atlanta -131
#914 - MLB - 3 units on San Diego -113
#924 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay -142
#927 - MLB - 3 units on Oakland +119
#929 - MLB - 3 units on Baltimore +118
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Orlando +6 (-110)
The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavaliers, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mismatches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skill set and confidence to stay close with Los Angeles in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as an underdog. Want evidence of the Lakers propensity to under perform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. Take Orlando plus the points here.
Overall record: 795-681-30
Current streak: 1 loss
Todays play: The Nationals -115
1000 Units Top Play Boston over Detroit
12* Tb Rays -138
10* Sf/was Over 8.5
Coglye West
12* Oak/chw Under 8.5
(@FootballJesus) WS 13-8 Tigers+130 ReDS+115, OV 9 Mil/FLA
from the pickcontest on twitter sorry i dont have paid plays
Belmont Stakes ONLY Race 1 -
Belmont Stakes 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Belmont Stakes is by far the toughest of the three Triple Crown races to win. Horses running in the Kentucky Derby are asked to travel 1 ¼ miles for the first time in their careers. In the Preakness they cut back a sixteenth of mile. But The Belmont Stakes, has been called "The Test of Champions", because, those horses, still standing after the rigors of the Triple Crown, are asked to travel 1 ½ miles. The race starts in front of the stands. The gate is positioned right by the finish line. Horse s must run around the entire track once, with its wide sweeping turns and over Belmont dirt, which can often be deep and tiring. That is why Belmont is referred to as "Big Sandy". Horses who ran in the Derby and Preakness, have only three weeks to recover in time, to be at their best for the third leg of racings Triple Crown.
It takes an extraordinary horse to win all three legs. There have been only eleven horses to have accomplished this great feat. Sir Barton was the first to do it in 1919. The forties proved to be the first decade which produced four Triple Crown winners. Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), and Citation (1948). It took twenty five years for the next Triple Crown winner, when Secretariat won by the length of the stretch in 1973. Four years later Seattle Slew won it, and in 1978 Affirmed overcame an intense stretch battle to narrowly out game his nemesis, Alydar. Now, thirty one years later, there has not been a horse to win all three races. There have been forty five horses who have won two out of the three legs of the Triple Crown. Twenty one horses won the Derby and the Preakness, only to fall short in the Belmont Stakes. There are very few races all year that are run at 1 ½ miles and beyond. Except for those three year olds who run in the Belmont, you will only see older gladiators run these marathon distances.
Calvin Borel has a chance to be a Triple Crown winner as a jockey if he wins the Belmont aboard Mine That Bird, whom he rode to victory in the Kentucky Derby. He rode the filly, Rachel Alexandra, to a game victory in the Preakness. According to Borel in Mondays Daily Racing Form, he stated, Were going to win it, no questions asked. He is the hottest rider in the country at the present time and has an abundance of confidence. If Borel is so sure Mine That Bird cannot lose the Belmont, then we should sell all our stocks, empty out our bank accounts, and break our piggy banks, to run to the windows, to be the first one in line to collect. Mine That bird is a deserving favorite, as he has accomplished more in two Triple Crown races than any of his opposition. But we must not forget that he was 50-1 when he won the Derby, closing up a gold rail while relishing the Churchill slop. The Bird was 6-1 in the Preakness when he ran second. He did have trouble in the race and probably would have won, if the race was a bit longer, but the truth of the matter is that Rachel Alexandra did all the dirty work for horses to close into, as a result of the quick early fractions she set. Borel should take a chapter out of the Richard Dutrow Jr. Holy Scriptures, thou shall never assume that you can predict destiny, especially in thoroughbred horse racing. Dutow stated before the Belmont, that Big Brown was a lock, and everyone else is running for second money. Obviously something went amiss that day with Big Brown, as he pulled up early in the race. Borel does not have much experience riding at Belmont Park, let alone traveling 1 ½ miles on horseback over "Big Sandy". Mine That Bird has excelled since being taken well off the pace and making one sustained late run. This type of running style is usually at a disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes, especially if the early fractions are not fast, and if the track is speed favoring.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1
2 DUNKIRK 4/1
3 MR. HOT STUFF 15/1
4 SUMMER BIRD 12/1
5 LUV GOV 20/1
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1
8 FLYING PRIVATE 12/1
9 MINER'S ESCAPE 15/1
10 BRAVE VICTORY 15/1
First Selection: (2) DUNKIRK (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Does anyone remember The Green Monkey? I certainly do. His owners, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith laid out a cool sixteen million for the colt. Unfortunately, The Green Monkey had trouble outrunning his shadow, and anything else on a racetrack for that matter. These same connections waded once again into the deep end of the yearling pool, doling a mere $3.7 million for Dunkirk, a paltry sum, when considering how much they spent for their previous purchase. Only this time, they bought themselves a runner.
Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridleds Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didnt know all that. When Gomez chirped to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired pulling up after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing catch-up due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a better than it looked performance.
Dunkirks connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmonts, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
Second Selection: (6) CHARITABLE MAN (Mclaughlin Kiaran P/Garcia A)
If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure.
Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Mans victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasnt long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, dont respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a key stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a live wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miners Escape, who I would consider cheap speed, he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
Third Selection: (7) MINE THAT BIRD (Woolley Bennie L Jr/Borel C H)
If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didnt. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were over the top and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I dont feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. Its very possible, but my money says he wont. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
Fourth Selection: (1) CHOCOLATE CANDY (Hollendorfer Jerry/Gomez G K)
If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial king of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an in the money finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
Fifth Selection: (4) SUMMER BIRD (Ice Tim A/Desormeaux K J)
Of all the longshots entered in the Belmont Stakes, Summer Bird is the most interesting. Trainer Tim Ice does not start many horses, but he wins a high percentage of races. Both Ice and Summer Bird's owners, could never envision, that Summer Bird would accomplish as much as he has in such a short period of time. It took him two races to break his maiden. Twenty two days later, Summer Bird was asked to take a huge leap of faith into the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, facing the likes of Papa Clem and Old Fashioned, who ended up running 1-2. There were others who had more racing experience as well. Summer Bird, sent off at 26-1, was a fast closing third, rallying from dead last, while racing very wide throughout. If the race was a bit longer, he probably would have sprung the upset. If dreams come true and miracles happen, then Summer Bird was the poster child for both. Just ask the connections of Mine That Bird. Summer Bird did not train well at Churchill Downs in the days leading up to the Kentucky, but nevertheless, he ran a respectable sixth, beaten thirteen lengths, over a sloppy track he had never raced over.
What should we expect from Summer Bird in the Belmont Stakes? Summer Birds sire is Birdstone, (also the sire of Mine That Bird), who upset Smarty Jones quest for racings Triple Crown, in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Birdstones father, Grindstone, won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. Summer Birds mother, Hong Kong Squall, was winless in nine starts, but her dad Summer Squall ran second in the 1990 Kentucky Derby, as well as winning several Graded stakes going a distance of ground. Based on his pedigree, Summer Bird should be able to handle the 1 ½ mile distance of the Belmont. He did not train particularly well at Belmont Park, until his workout last weekend, with new rider Kent Desormeaux. He replaces Rosier, who rode him in his first three starts. Needless to say, this is a monumental rider change. Desormeaux indicated that Summer Bird handled the track fantastically. Hes fit and ready.He's a happy, healthy horse. There are too many factors to suggest that Summer Bird has a chance to run better than his big odds will suggest, and therefore, he will be included underneath is some of my trifectas.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(8) FLYING PRIVATE (Lukas D Wayne/Leparoux Julien R)
Flying Private has only a maiden win to his credit in twelve starts, and that lone victory was at six furlongs. His best career effort was in the Grade 2 Lanes End, when he was second to Hold Me Back at 24-1 over a synthetic surface. Flying Private was eligible to run in the Derby,only because he accumulated enough money in that graded stake. Flying Private was sired by Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. His dams sire, is Unbridled, who was also a Kentucky Derby winner. You would think that because of his strong distance pedigree that he would steadily improve the further he goes. This was not the case until his last start in the Preakness, where Flying Private made up ground at every call, to run fourth, beaten four lengths. It was his best career effort, going 1 3/16 miles. He did attempt to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. I must attribute this poor effort, to his disdain for a sloppy track, when he ran last of nineteen, beaten a country mile. Flying Private has proven that he needs a dry track, which he will get on Saturday.
What should we expect from Flying Private in the Belmont Stakes? Unlike his uncoupled stable mate, Luv Gov, this $700,000 yearling purchase, could clunk up for a piece, even though I do prefer others. Flying Private has more speed than what he showed in the Derby and Preakness, and should be more forwardly placed in the Belmont. Rather than run 1 ½ miles on Saturday, it would have been more prudent to place Flying Private in a much softer spot where he could earn his second career victory, which would be a huge confidence builder. Its been a long time between drinks, from his maiden score last August at six furlongs, to the Belmont Stakes, where he will be making his eighth start this year. This is quite a lot, in less than half a year. Trainer Wayne Lukas has not been the dominant force he was in the 80s and 90s, but in major stakes races, he seems to be able to get his horses to peak. I am not sure this is the case with Flying Private. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath in some trifectas, just in case he turned the corner in the Preakness.
(3) MR. HOT STUFF (Harty Eoin/Prado E S)
It is very difficult for me to pick Mr. Hot Stuff to win the Belmont Stakes. First and foremost, is that he has only one career win, and that came over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita, going one mile. He has eight career starts, and seven have come in southern California over polytrack and Pro-Ride. His lone dirt start was in the Kentucky Derby, where he ran fifteenth, beaten twenty three lengths. The verdict is still out whether or not that effort can be excused, because of the sloppy track he was encountering for the first time. He also had the misfortune of being bumped and squeezed at the start. Mr. Hot Stuffs best race was two starts back in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles, where he ran a good third to Pionnerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy. He was beaten just two lengths that afternoon. Mr. Hot Stuff ran his last 1/8th of a mile in a solid: 12 1/5 seconds, and then galloped out well past the wire, suggesting that he should be able to handle a longer distance.
What should we expect from Mr. Hot Stuff in the Belmont Stakes? He has no early speed, and will have to close from far off the pace if he is to be a factor. This type of running style does not win many "Test of the Champions at Belmont. Mr. Hot Stuff could benefit stretching out further. The only problem is that he has not shown he can handle conventional dirt. I cannot fathom him closing with Mine That Bird and others, and out finishing them. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath in trifectas, as it is possible that he can clunk up for a piece.
(9) MINER'S ESCAPE (Zito Nicholas P/Lezcano Jose)
Trainer Nick Zito has two horses entered in this years Belmont Stakes, Miners Escape and Brave Victory. Both are expected to be longshots to win. What I love about Zito, is that if he has the guns, he will fire. He has said often said, if you dont run, you can't win. Zito backed up this statement, upsetting Big Brown in last years Belmont with Da Tara, who was 38-1. Da' Tara was owned by Robert LaPenta, who also owns Miners Escape. In 2004, Zito orchestrated the defeat of the 2-5 favorite Smarty Jones, with 36-1 shot Birdstone. Ironically, in both instances, Zito prevented both horses, from winning the coveted Triple Crown.
Miners Escape comes off two decisive wins, a maiden score March 14 at Gulfstream Park, and on May 2 in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico, which served as a prep race for the Preakness, and run two weeks later over the same track. Zito elected to bypass the Preakness, and instead point Miners Escape for the Belmont. It was a wise decision. Both victories were at the 1 1/8 mile distance, proving that he is most effective going a distance of ground over conventional dirt. Miners Escape has never run at Belmont, but has worked over the track, where Zito is stable all year.
What should we expect from Miners Escape in the Belmont Stakes? In both his wins, he stalked a slow pace from the outset. With the exception of Charitable Man, there is not much early speed in the race. Miners Escape has proven that he is good enough to stick around until the far turn, but at that point, the pace will quicken, and it is unlikely that he can fend off those horses that will be rallying from off the pace. He is bred on both sides to stay the 1 ½ mile distance, but is simply overmatched in this spot. Nevertheless, I will use him underneath on some trifecta tickets, simply because Zito has proven in the past, that no matter circumstances, he has an uncanny knack at having his horses dramatically improve when least expected. Just ask Da Tara and Birdstone if you dont believe me.
(10) BRAVE VICTORY (Zito Nicholas P/Maragh Rajiv)
Brave Victory is the second horse being entered in the Belmont Stakes by trainer Nick Zito. I have documented Zitos prowess in the third leg of the Triple Crown, in my opening paragraph on Minors Escape, who is his other entrant. Both are owned by Robert Lapenta.
Much was expected from Brave Victory when he made his debut last July at Saratoga. He caught slop that day, but, nevertheless, ran a very strong second , despite a troubled start and a wide trip. Zito wheeled him back four weeks later, but once again Brave Victory had to settle for second. He was beaten less than a length by Regal Ransom, who went on to be a top class three year old, and was highly regarded as a contender in this years Kentucky Derby. Brave Victory finally put it all together in his third start, as the overwhelming favorite at Belmont Park. In two subsequent outings, both in graded stakes, he showed nothing. Any hopes of Brave Victory becoming a legitimate Derby contender went up in flames. Zito needed to find a soft spot for Brave Victory to regain his confidence. He found it on Jan 30 at Gulfstream Park, in his first start as a three year old. He overcame a troubled start, and was all out to win against a weak allowance field. If Brave Victorys connections had any hope of making the Derby, it had to start in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes. He was a well beaten fourth, and then returned to be off the board, in the Grade 2 Lexington at Keeneland. It was now clear that Brave Victory had not made much progress from two to three. Even if Zito wanted to go to the Derby, Brave Victory had not accumulated enough graded stakes earnings. It was back to the drawing board.
As a result of Zitos great success in the Belmont Stakes, he felt that if he could get Brave Victory to run a competitive race in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 at Belmont, all systems would be on go for the Belmont. He ran third that day, beaten 5 ½ lengths by Charitable Man, despite his rider losing his whip in mid stretch. It was the kind of performance Zito was looking for.
What should we expect from Brave Victory in the Belmont Stakes? He is clearly not bred to handle the 1 ½ mile distance. Several horses who have had success in Triple Crown races, have outrun their pedigree. Brave Victory wont be one of them. Both his wins have come sprinting. He attempted one turn miles twice as a two year old and backed up willingly both times. In his last two starts, Brave Victory was stretched out to two turns for the first time, both at 1 1/8 miles. He showed no punch at all in the stretch. Brave Victory has done nothing to consider him a major contender to win the Belmont or run second. The only reason for me to consider using him underneath in trifectas, is the respect I have for Zito, in Triple Crown races and that the field is a rather weak one, when you go beyond the three or four major contenders.
(5) LUV GOV (Lukas D Wayne/Mena M)
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is no stranger to the winners circle in Triple Crown races. On Saturday, he will saddle the huge longshot, Luv Gov, for Marylou Whitney. She owned Birdstone, who defeated Smarty Jones at 36-1 in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Luv Gov has just one win to his credit, and that was a decisive maiden victory two starts back in the slop at Pimlico. He was taken back to last, that day, and then sustained a strong closing rally. In previous starts, he showed more speed, which is likely to happen on Saturday, stretching out to 1 ½ miles. In the Preakness, Luv Gov took the overland route and showed absolutely nothing. Since closing tactics worked in his maiden score, the same strategy was employed at Pimlico.
What should we expect from Luv Gov in the Belmont Stakes? He will be no factor whatsoever. Of all the longshots entered, he is one one of those that I rate towards the bottom of the heap. I see no reason why Lukas does not find a weaker spot, than running against far better at 1 ½ miles. Luv Gov gives me no indication that he wants any part of this distance.
Wagering Strategy
* A win bet on (2)DUNKIRK.
* A small saver win bet on (6)CHARITABLE MAN
* Exacta part-wheel 2 over 1-6-7, reverse for half as much
* Much smaller exacta 2-4, small reverse
* Trifecta 2 / 1-6-7 / ALL = $24 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta box 1-2-6-7 = $24 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2 / 1-4-6-7 / 1-4-6-7 = $12 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2-6 / 2-6 / ALL = $16 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 2-6 / 2-6 / 1-4-7 = $6 for a $1 wager
TOTAL TRIFECTA WAGER = $82
Trifecta wagers are given in order of preference.
For smaller budgets, eliminate trifecta tickets starting at the
bottom until you reach a wagering level that suits your comfort level.
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