Service Play Thread for Tuesday
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Comments
Pittsburgh -8 at PROVIDENCE
Now Pittsburgh has that # 1 bulls-eye on their back, but the G-Man does not feel they will be tested by Providence, as the Friars have lost their way defensively, allowing 94-points or more in 6 of their last 9 games.
Not surprisingly, the Friars have dropped their last pair, and 5 of their last 7 straight up, while failing 6 of those 7 against the spread.
Pittsburgh has won their last 7, and they are 5-1 against the spread in those games with a line.
The Panthers have also won 8 in a row in this rivalry, covering 5 of the last 6.
On the road this season Jamie Dixon's team has given no quarter, sporting a 6-3-1 spread mark in their 10 lined games away from the Steel City.
Eventually Pitt will break Providence's will, and the Panthers will take this one by double-digits for the cover.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
(1) Pittsburgh (25-2, 13-7-1 ATS) at Providence (16-11, 9-14 ATS)
Pittsburgh begins its second turn this season atop the national rankings thanks to a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS). Last week, the Panthers posted two impressive wins, first knocking off then-No. 1 UConn 76-68 as a 2½-point road underdog then bashing DePaul 80-61 at home, coming up short as a 25½-point chalk. The non-cover against DePaul ended Pitts 5-0 ATS run.
Providences NCAA Tournament hopes have taken a big hit this month, thanks to an ongoing 2-5 slump (1-6 ATS). After a 94-76 loss at Louisville as a 13½-point underdog Wednesday, the Friars hosted slumping Notre Dame on Saturday as two-point home favorite. Providence has lost two of its last three home games (0-3 ATS).
The Panthers are in a three-way tie for second place in the Big East at 12-2 (9-5 ATS), a half-game behind UConn. Pitt is 5-2 in conference road games (4-3 ATS). Providence is 8-7 in the Big East (7-8 ATS), including 5-3 at home (3-5 ATS).
Pitt has won eight straight meetings against the Friars, going 5-1 ATS in the last six, including 2-0 SU and ATS in its two most recent trips to Providence. The host is on a 7-2 SU run in this rivalry, but just 4-5 ATS, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six battles.
While both teams can score the Panthers average 78 ppg, and Providence puts up 79.2 ppg the difference has been defense, especially lately, as the Friars have allowed 87.6 ppg in their last nine outings while Pitt has surrendered 65.2 ppg in its last five. In fact, Providence has given up 93 points or more in six of its last nine contests, while the Panthers have held 12 of 14 Big East foes under 70 points, including the last five in a row.
The Panthers are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 8-3-1 on the road, 4-0 on Tuesday, 4-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a non-cover, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 when laying 12 points or less. Providence carries nothing but negative pointspread trends into tonight, including 1-6 overall (all in the Big East), 2-5 at home, 0-5 versus winning teams, 2-5-1 on Tuesday and 2-8 as an underdog.
The last six meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total. Also, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 for Pitt overall (all in the Big East) and 9-4 for Providence overall (all in the Big East).
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT and OVER
(23) Florida State (21-6, 14-6-1 ATS) at Boston College (19-9, 12-11 ATS)
Florida State returned to the Top 25 after a pair of solid ACC wins last week over Miami, Fla. (80-67 as a 3½-point home favorite) and Virginia Tech (67-65 as a 2½-point road underdog). The Seminoles have won five of their last six games, and theyre on a 6-2-1 ATS run.
Boston College is coming off Saturdays 69-58 setback at Miami, Fla., failing to cover as a 6½-point road underdog, dropping to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. However, the one victory came in its most recent home contest, an 80-74 triumph over then-No. 6 Duke on Feb. 15 as a 7½-point home underdog. The Eagles are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS against Top 25 competition.
The Seminoles find themselves in a three-way tie for second place in the ACC, 1½ games behind North Carolina. Theyre 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in league play, going 4-2 (4-1-1 ATS) when visiting conference foes. The Eagles are 7-6 SU and 6-7 ATS in ACC action, including 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS).
Boston College won the first three meetings against the Seminoles upon entering the ACC in the 2005-06 season, but Florida State broke through with last years 66-63 triumph at home, failing to cash as a 6½-point home underdog. The pup is 3-0-1 ATS in this budding rivalry.
Florida States impressive ATS streaks include 12-3-2 in ACC play, 11-2-1 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 against winning teams, 8-3-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on Tuesday. B.C. is on an 8-3-1 ATS roll on Tuesday, but has failed to cover in five of its last seven home games and four of its last five against winning teams.
The under is 4-1 in FSUs last five Tuesday outings, but for Boston College, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 43-21-1 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-0 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE
Florida (21-6, 8-11-1 ATS) at (18) LSU (23-4, 10-9 ATS)
LSU clinched at least a share of the SEC West title and assured itself of a top-two seed in the upcoming conference tournament with Saturdays 79-72 victory over previously surging Auburn. The Tigers have won eight consecutive games overall and 11 straight in the SEC, but theyve failed to cover a pointspread in their last three, including coming up just short as an eight-point chalk against Auburn. Since a 65-59 SEC-opening loss at Alabama, LSU has scored at least 70 points in 12 consecutive games, averaging 80.4 ppg in 11 SEC victories.
Florida has followed up a two-game slide both on the road with consecutive home wins over Alabama on Wednesday (83-74) and Vanderbilt on Saturday (82-68). Although the Gators cashed as a nine-point favorite against Vandy, theyre still just 2-4 ATS (3-3 SU) in their last six, all in the SEC. During this six-game stretch, Billy Donvoans club is giving up 78.3 ppg, but the offense has notched 82 or more in three straight contests, four of the last five and six of the last eight.
While the Tigers are alone atop the SEC West at 11-1 (7-5 ATS), including 6-0 at home (3-3 ATS), Florida is stuck in a three-way tie for first in the SEC East. The Gators are 8-4 in conference action (6-5-1 ATS), but just 2-4 on the road (3-2-1 ATS).
LSU knocked off the Gators in last years lone battle, scoring a stunning 85-73 upset as a huge 13½-point road underdog. The Tigers are on a 5-2 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, and the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 10 meetings. Also, the underdog has cashed in six of the last eight.
In addition to failing to cover in three straight games, the Tigers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 after a non-cover and 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. Florida is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven after a SU victory, but this marks the Gators first game against a ranked opponent this season.
For LSU, the over is on stretches of 7-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 11-5 in SEC play and 4-0 on Tuesday. Also, Florida has topped the total in four of its last five overall (all in the SEC). Conversely, the under for the Gators is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 20-7-1 after a SU win and 10-4 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
NBA
Portland (35-20, 28-27 ATS) at Houston (35-21, 26-29-1 ATS)
The Blazers capped a perfect three-game homestand (2-1 ATS) with an emphatic 116-87 rout of the Clippers on Sunday, cashing easily as a 16-point chalk as theyve followed up a 1-5 ATS slump with back-to-back spread-covers. Portland is on a 10-3 SU run, but all three defeats came in the teams three most recent road games (0-3 ATS).
The Rockets carry a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) into this game at the Toyota Center, with all four wins coming at home. On Sunday, Houston throttled Charlotte 99-78 as a six-point favorite. Rick Adelmans squad has won seven of its last nine contests (5-3-1 ATS), with all seven victories coming at the Toyota Center (5-1-1 ATS). In fact, the Rockets average margin of victory during their seven-game home winning streak has been 15.3 points per game, with five double-digit routs.
The Blazers edged the Rockets 101-99 in overtime as a five-point underdog in the first meeting back on Nov. 6, snapping a five-game SU and three-game ATS losing skid in this rivalry. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 (4-0 ATS in the last four).
Going back to early December, the Blazers have dropped eight of their last 12 roadies both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in all 12 games. Going back further, Portland has failed to cover in 12 of its last 16 as a visitor, and the team is also 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Southwest Division. On the positive end, Nate McMillans club is on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 after a double-digit win, 7-2 after a SU victory of any margin and 5-2 after a spread-cover.
In addition to being 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games, Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams. However, the Rockets are mired in ATS slumps of 3-9 when playing on one day of rest, 5-13-1 after a double-digit victory and 2-8-1 after a spread-cover.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings, including 4-0 in the last four clashes in Houston. Also, the under is on runs of 17-8 for Portland against the Southwest Division, 4-0-1 for Portland in Western Conference games, 4-1 for Portland on Tuesday, 4-1 for Houston at home and 4-1 for Houston in Western Conference action. On the flip side, the over is on stretches of 5-2 for the Blazers on the road, 7-3-1 for the Blazers after a SU win, 4-1-1 when playing on one days rest, 8-2 for the Rockets against Northwest Division opponents and 6-0 for the Rockets on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Dallas (33-22, 26-29 ATS) at San Antonio (37-17, 27-25-2 ATS)
The Spurs return home for the first time this month after wrapping up a grueling eight-game road trip with Saturdays 98-67 rout of Washington, easily covering as a 7½-point road favorite. San Antonio, which game up a season-low in points Saturday, finished the trip with a 5-3 record (5-2-1 ATS), and it is on a 12-4 SU run dating to Jan. 17 (10-5-1 ATS). Gregg Popovichs squad has also won four straight home games (2-2 ATS).
Dallas followed up a 9-3 SU run by splitting its last four games both SU and ATS, most recently taking apart the Kings 116-95 as a 13-point home chalk Saturday. The Mavericks have alternated spread-covers in their last six games, and theyve lost their last two on the road 93-86 at Houston as a four-point underdog and 115-87 at Utah as a 3½-point pup after going 4-2 SU and ATS in the previous six on the highway.
The Mavericks took the first meeting in this series this year 98-91 as a 4½-point road underdog back on Nov. 4, but San Antonio got revenge a month later with a 133-126 overtime win as a two-point road chalk. The Spurs have won four of the last five clashes, but the teams have alternated spread-covers in the past six meetings since the start of last season.
Also in this rivalry, the Mavs are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 clashes overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to San Antonio. Finally, the dog has cashed at a 19-7 clip in the last 26 head-to-head battles.
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games played on two days rest and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Western Conference. However, the Mavs have failed to cover in four of their last five divisional contests and nine of their last 13 after a spread-cover. San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two days rest, but otherwise the Spurs are on spread-covering surges of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 on Tuesday, 4-0-1 against the Western Conference, 8-1 after a road trip of longer than a week and 6-0 versus winning teams.
Four of the last five Mavs-Spurs battles in San Antonio have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 9-3 in Dallas last 12 divisional contests. However, San Antonio is on over surges of 8-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 5-0 against the Western Conference, 5-2 versus the Southwest Division, 4-0 on Tuesday and 10-4-1 after a spread-cover, and the over is 10-4 in the Mavericks last 14 contests played after two days of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Orlando Magic -2.5
Orlando is in first place in the Southeast division with a 41-14 record and have played well on the road with a 19-8 record. Chicago is in 4th place and just a couple games out of last place as they have struggled on the road luckily this game is in Chicago where they are 15-11 at home. Dwight Howard is an unstoppable force and will need to step up his game to power the Magic through the end of the season heading into the playoffs starting with a win in Chicago. Play Orlando
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5
The Ford Center will be the site of tonights Western Conference battle between the host Oklahoma City Thunder and the visiting Lakers from the City of Angels. These two just met on February 10th in LA with the Lakers taking a 105 to 98 win but failing to cover as an 11.5 point home favorite. LA has won four straight but have only won two of those against the number losing ATS at home versus New Orleans 115 to 111 as an 8 point home favorite and on the road in their most recent affair at Minnesota 111 to 108 as a 9.5 point road favorite. The Thunder have lost five straight games and only covered two of those against the spread but only one of those games was at home and they covered in that game versus New Orleans 100 to 98 as a 3 point home underdog and then of course the game we mentioned on the road at the Lakers. LA is 1-5 ATS this season off two ATS losses where they won SU as a favorite and 14-29 ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in their last two games and 20-40 ATS the last three seasons in that situation. Oklahoma City is 29-17 ATS as an underdog this year and 13-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. With the Thunder coming in off two high scoring affairs they become active in this angle that tells us they are a perfect 6-0 ATS after two straight games where both teams scored at least 100 points. They are also 7-1 ATS after a combined score of at least 205 points in two straight games. Finally we note that the Thunder have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 home games. With OKC sitting idle since Saturday and the Lakers having played on the road at the Timberwolves Sunday and host the Suns on Thursday we believe they are in a perfect letdown situation that the host should be able to capitalize on tonight. Play ON NBA conference underdogs coming off a SU and ATS loss on the road in their last game, 50-31-1 ATS, if they lost two games both SU and ATS the record is 9-2 ATS. Play AGAINST NBA conference road teams with a line range of 8 to 9.5 points, 9-20 ATS. Take the points with the Thunder as they keep this one close in Oklahoma City on Tuesday evening.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Oklahoma City 109 Los Angeles 112
Florida State vs. Boston College
Play: Florida State +2.5
Both hanicapping and trends point to the same team. FSU has been a very surprising team for the ACC all year. Not many preseason predictions had this team in the NCAA tournament but as of now they are safely in the dance. 21 wins is a heck of a job with a very good league this year. Also have been road warriors all year going 7-3 on the road. BC has had a couple good wins against Duke and UNC but also have had some really bad home losses against Harvard. Think the FSU defense will be very good and hold the BC guards in check. Craig loves FSU here with the points. Check out the trends also that point to the same pick.
FSU is 9-2-1 ATS on the road
BC is 6-5 at home ATS
Both Craig's capping and the trends point to FSU pulling off a win. SCORE FSU 74 - BC 69
Play On: Phoenix Suns
The Suns finally met with defeat under new head coach Alvin Gentry against the defending champion Boston Celtics Sunday night in a 128-108 setback. Phoenix will look to regroup tonight against the Bobcats knowing they are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS at home off a home loss of 18 or more points, including a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS if they were favored in the loss. Toss in a heavy dose of same season revenge (22 points) and just like that the Suns come back up again. Lay the points with Phoenix.
Florida State @ Boston College
Play: Florida State +3
I believe both Florida State and Boston College can punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, barring a complete meltdown over the next couple weeks. The ACC will get a minimum of six bids this season, and I'm leaning toward the league receiving seven, so the 'Noles and Eagles are in great shape right now. But you can be sure both coaches will sell their teams that this is not the case and will preach the importance of winning this game. It figures to be a terrific game. BC has beaten both North Carolina and Duke at home, but they also lost to Harvard on this court. Florida State has had the occasional off game, but the Seminoles have also had some very solid road wins, including recent victories at Virginia Tech and Clemson. I make this game a tossup, so I'm leaning toward taking the points with FSU for the Tuesday free opinion.
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
Prediction: Florida Panthers
Florida comes into this one having won 5 of their last 7 games and one of those wins was against the Bruins. The Panthers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. an Eastern Conference opponent. The Panthers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team from the Northeast Division. Boston has struggled recently losing 6 of their last 7 games overall. The Bruins return home from a 5-game road trip that was unsuccessful. In the last 13 meetings between the clubs Boston is 4-9. Florida has won 5 of their last 6 trips to Boston. Play on the Florida Panthers +.
Play on: Toronto over Minnesota
The aspiring T-Wolves left it all on the floor this past Sunday, losing to the talented and highly rated Lakers 111-108. Therefore, look for a major letdown in this hostile road venue up in Portland. The Blazers are on a 9-0 ATS versus the visitor and the home team is a perfect chalk at 6-0 ATS.
Tough free-play loss with the 76ers on Monday. Well make amends Tuesday as we flip to the college hardwood and back Pitt minus the points at Providence.
Clearly, this is THE biggest home game of the season for the Friars, and theyll be pumped up to face the newest No. 1 team in the country. But being pumped up and actually competing with one of the most dominant teams in the country are two different things, and after the first 10 minutes or so, after the adrenaline wears off, reality will hit Providence, and its not going to be pretty.
Pitt comes into this game riding a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS in lined contests) and is 12-2 in Big East play. Of those 12 victories, a whopping 10 were double-digit blowouts, and another was last Mondays thoroughly impressive eight-point road win at then-No. 1 UConn. During its current six-game conference winning streak Im not including a 20-point non-lined win over Robert Morris the Panthers have won by an average of 15 ppg.
Meanwhile, Providence is coming off an 18-point road loss at Louisville and Saturdays 19-point home loss to Notre Dame. The Friars have dropped five of their last seven, going 1-6 ATS during this funk, And even if you include a 100-94 home win over Syracuse a month ago, Providence is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against ranked Big East opponents. And you know whats most disturbing? In those six games against Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, UConn, Villanova and Louisville Providence allowed 91.5 points per game! The Friars also gave up the 103 to Notre Dame on Saturday, 86 to West Virginia and 93 to Seton Hall!
You play that kind of defense tonight against a Panthers squad that, during its six-game conference winning streak, is averaging 82.7 ppg on 49.7 percent shooting (40.4 percent from three-point range), youre asking for trouble! Lay the points with Pitt, which has defeated Providence eight straight times, covering the spread in five of the last six, including last years 82-63 rout as an 8½-point chalk.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
For Tuesday take St. John's at home.
In terms of talent alone there is no comparison between Syracuse and St. John's. The Orange clearly boast the far superior squad and a team that has the upside to go far in the NCAA Tournament. But with that said 'Cuse has been atrocious at times this season and especially so on the road and right now maybe would not even qualify for the Big Dance.
Jim Boeheim's boys are quality ballplayers but collectively these guys have underachieved to the max. Harris, Flynn, Onuaku, Rautins, Devendorf and the rest of today's visitors have been pathetic away from the Carrierdome over the last few months. They allowed 100 plus points in back-to-back games embarassing themselves at both Providence and Villanova and really have not been all that much sharper at home as they crapped away a big lead against the struggling Hoyas of Georgetown before winning in overtime and just got outclassed for a second time this season over the weekend to Villanova, this time at home.
St. John's is certainly one of the weaker teams in the Big East this season but we have seen some strides of late and enough to make me believe they will compete today in this home dog role. The Storm manned up late recently against Duke in a cover and just beat a decent enough Seton Hall squad. Now in comes a reeling Syracuse team that is superior but that fact has meant little in recent games for the Orange so why should anything change today?
The golden age of St. John's basketball is long gone but these guys have improved and should be good enough today to grab that cash!
Dallas at SAN ANTONIO -4
Take the Spurs as the home chalk tonight over the Mavericks.
San Antonio returns home after a grueling eight-game road trip and I expect them to come out flying in front of the partisan crowd. The Spurs finished their road trip with a 98-67 rout of Washington on Saturday, easily covering as the 7 ½-point chalk.
Dallas delivered the home win and cover on Saturday over Sacramento, continuing their recent trend of alternating spread-covers in their last six.
But the Mavs have lost their last two on the road, 93-86 at Houston and 115-87 at Utah, dropping both against the spread as well.
Dallas has also failed to cover in four of its last five divisional games and nine of its last 13 after an ATS win.
San Antonio is on ATS runs of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 on Tuesday, 4-0-1 against the Western Conference, 8-1 after a road trip of longer than a week and 6-0 versus winning teams.
Take the Spurs minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Season: 303-191 (.613)
BOSTON 3, Florida 2
Anaheim vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 4, Philadelphia 3
Colorado vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Vancouver vs. MONTREAL: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Carolina vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MINNESOTA 3, Los Angeles 2
Phoenix vs. ST. LOUIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CALGARY 4, Columbus 3
EDMONTON 4, Tampa Bay 2
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im looking for football jesus plays too or teddy covers big ticket
Bell's Best
NcaaB:
Cuse - 4.5
Prov + 8.5
Florida + 2.5
TX am + 3.5
Baylor - 2.5
Brandon Lovells Free Pick
Tuesday February 24 2009
Sport: NCAAB
Game: Syracuse vs St Johns
Selection: St Johns +5.5
Iowa St. +2.5
Chris Jordan has a 600k between Creighton and Missouri State
Drew Gordon has a 200k between penn state and Ohio State
3* Pitt -7.5
4* Cavs -15.5
6* FSU +2.5
8* Cuse -4
8* TCU +14.5
Weekly Wipeout Winner
Hou Rockets (7.5)
Las Vegas Insider
Nebraska (8*)
MWC 8*
San Diego State
Chairman- Boston College
Millionaire- Iowa St
Money Maker- San Diego St
Insiders- Providence
Dr cogyle Anaheim/buffalo over 5.5 10star
__________________
BLANK CHECK GAME OF HIS CAREER
NBA
MAGIC -2 over BULLS
25* Ohio State