Service Play Thread for Monday
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Post all service plays and requests in this thread.
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Advantage Plays
Who2BetOn (The Prez, Pacific Star, LT Profits, Mike Rose, Alex Smart, JBSports, AJ Apollo, Ken Jenkins, Jon Gold, Dr D Sports, Mike Martell)
Doc's Sports (Strike Point, Vegas Sports Informer, Robert Ferringo, Allen Eastman)
2. Please do not post any plays from site contributors:
AAA Sports
3. Please keep the thread as clean as possible by not repeating requests for plays.
4. DO NOT post e-mail addresses or request others to post their own.
Thank you!
RULES:
1. Please do not post any plays from site sponsors:
Right Angle Sports
Advantage Plays
Who2BetOn (The Prez, Pacific Star, LT Profits, Mike Rose, Alex Smart, JBSports, AJ Apollo, Ken Jenkins, Jon Gold, Dr D Sports, Mike Martell)
Doc's Sports (Strike Point, Vegas Sports Informer, Robert Ferringo, Allen Eastman)
2. Please do not post any plays from site contributors:
AAA Sports
3. Please keep the thread as clean as possible by not repeating requests for plays.
4. DO NOT post e-mail addresses or request others to post their own.
Thank you!
Comments
Soccer:
Lens/Clermont Foot over 2 (France Ligue 2)
Hansa Rostock/SC Freiburg over 2.5 (German 2 Bundesliga)
Connecticut Huskies -3
New Mexico St. Aggies -8
College of Charleston over 153
Texas over 132
Basketball
#503 - NCAA - 3 units on Louisiana Tech +9
#506 - NCAA - 3 units on Texas A&M +2
#514 - NCAA - 3 units on St. Peters -2.5
Today's Free Pick is Pittsburgh +3.5
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas -2
Reed Arena in College Station will be the site for ESPNs second game of their College Basketball double-header on Monday night featuring the hometown Texas A&M Aggies and the visiting Longhorns from the University of Texas. The Horns enter tonights game off back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State 99 to 74 and at Colorado 85 to 76. A&M has not been so fortunate losing their last three in a row which included losses at Oklahoma 77 to 71 at home versus Kansas State 65 to 60 and finally on the road at Baylor 72 to 68.
College Basketball teams that are coming off a loss straight up but a win ATS and going under in their last game and are now installed as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6 points are 34-61-3 ATS. If that loss came on the road the record for our play against team is 29-54-2 ATS. If this is a conference game our home underdog has a record of 66-92-6 ATS with any line range but if the line range is 2.5 to 6 points the record for our play against team is 23-44-1 ATS. If our play against team is involved in a division game as a home underdog their record is 9-24-1 ATS and if we use the same line range their record is 2-9-1 ATS.
College Basketball teams winning straight up but losing ATS on the road in their last game and are now a conference road favorite their record is 87-61 ATS. College teams that won straight up on the road and are now on the division road with a line range of 2.5 to 6 points have a record of 87-59-1 ATS. If our play on team went over in their last game and are now a division road favorite their record is 45-25 ATS and if we have the same line range as above their record is 25-9 ATS. We also note that Texas after winning straight up but losing ATS on the road now facing a conference opponent has gone 7-1 ATS. If Texas went over in that game and now has the same line range their record is a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Texas has a team offensive efficiency rating of 110.1 which ranks 52nd in the nation while the Aggies have a rating of 107.5 which is good for 82nd. The Longhorns have a defensive efficiency rating of 89.1 which ranks 16th in the country while the Aggies have a rating of 95.4 for 68th. Texas has a significant advantage on the defensive end and should be able to control the pace and tempo at both ends of the floor in tonights contest which will translate into a Horns victory and cover for us in College Station tonight.
Texas is 17-7 SU and 9-12 ATS on the season with a record of 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS on the road averaging 69.6 points per game versus teams that allow 68.8 points per game, defensively the Longhorns are holding their opponents to 65.2 points per game versus teams that average 72.8 points per game. The Aggies are 17-8 SU and 9-8 ATS overall on the season including 13-2 SU at home but only 2-5 ATS. Texas A&M has really struggled in conference play posting a record of only 3-7 SU but they are 5-4 ATS averaging 67.3 points per game versus teams that allow 69.2 points per game, defensively the Aggies allow 70.2 points per game versus teams that average 72.3 points per game.
Finally we have two college basketball systems that are active for tonights game. The first tells us to Play Against CBB home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off 3 straight losses against conference rivals against an opponent off a road win, 82-44 ATS since 1997. The second and final system tells us to Play On CBB road teams as a favorite or pick with a team shooting 32-36.5 percent from the three-point line against a team that is allowing 32-36.5% percent from behind the arc after a game where a team made 55 percent of their shots or better, 46-14 ATS the last five seasons.
Combine all the fundamental, situational and technical factors and we have a solid play on the Longhorns tonight, so lay the short price and hook em!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Texas Longhorns 74 Texas A&M Aggies 67
Pitt
Texas
Connecticut
Louisiana Tech +9 at NEW MEXICO STATE
G-Man on a 15-7 free play run my last 22 comp play releases.
Too many points to lay in Las Cruces tonight when New Mexico State plays host to Louisiana Tech.
The Aggies just beat back Fresno State on Saturday, but it took overtime before they prevailed, and they did not cover. That spread failure dropped them to 5-7 as the host this season, and tonight they take on a team that may be 4-11 straight up away from home, but it is a money-making 8-3 against the spread in their lined road games!
Louisiana Tech comes into this one with a few extra days of rest, and they have won 2 of their last 3, while covering in ALL 3.
Series numbers do show State with 4 straight wins, but against the spread, it is La Tech that has covered in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Take the generous points as Louisiana Tech takes New Mexico State to the limit tonight.
3♦ LOUISIANA TECH
cbb-app.st
hock-coyotes
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
Hockey
#53 - NHL - 3 units on Dallas +105
#55 - NHL - 3 units on NY Rangers +110
#60 - NHL - 3 units on Phoenix -110
Game 1 - Pens/Islanders over 6
Game 2 - Columbus -125
Game 3 - Nashville -140
Game 4 - Kings/Thrashers over 5.5
Pick # 1
Dallas Stars (105)
No Over/Under
Pick # 2
Ottawa Senators (115)
No Over/Under
Pick # 3
Phoenix Coyotes (-120)
No Over/Under
NCAA Basketball
Iona +4 over Siena
Monday, February 16, 2009
2*Siena (-4) over Iona
7:30 PM -- Hynes Center
2*Texas A&m (+1½) over Texas
9:00 PM -- Reed Arena
Med Siena-4
10000 unit lock
pittsburgh panthers +3
Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Monday
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Connecticut (NCAA)
(Big Monday Game of the Year)
Pittsburgh is 17-0 SU coming off four or more wins by 10 points or more
Pittsburgh is 18-1 SU after scoring 80 points or more in the last game
Connecticut is 1-6 ATS coming off ten or more consecutive wins
100* Play Texas A&M (+2) over Texas (NCAA)
Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS when the line is between +3 to -3
Texas A&M is 6-1 ATS after having lost 3 of the last 4 games
Texas A&M is 6-1 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent
Bonus Hoops & Hockey Plays
30* Play Pittsburgh (-180) over NY Islanders (NHL)
Chairman- U Conn
Millionaire- Texas A&M
5* PHX/EDM OVER 5.5
Pitt 25 units
Texas A&M 5 unit
Winning Angle Plays for Monday
NCAA
Play Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Connecticut* (Top NCAA Play)
Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 10 of the last 12 games after having won eighteen of the last twenty games and they are averaging over 86 points a game over the last five games.
Play Texas A&M (+2) over Texas* (Bonus NCAA Play)
Texas has lost 23 of the last 31 games against the spread coming off two or more consecutive OVER the totals and they have also lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread vs. conference opponents this season.
NBA Hoops
No NBA Hoops Plays Today
NHL
Play Los Angeles (-215) over Atlanta* (NHL Bonus Play)
4 units La Tech +8.5
3 units Loy Md -6
tx/tx a&m under
CBB
#506 Texas A&M +2.0
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Pittsburgh
2. 50,000♦ Texas A&M
1. Pittsburgh- While the public seemingly loves the # 1 ranked home team in this contest, I couldn't disagree more! True, the Huskies are playing well, but several factors will be their downfall in this showdown, but let's start with the injury to G Jerome Dyson.
I've always told my clients not to overeact to an injury, but in this case, its clear the Dyson injury has had an immediate impact on the Huskies and will continue to be a problem going forward. They did not look nearly as fluid at Seton Hall, working with only a 7-man rotation, it was clear the Huskies got tired down the stretch, scoring only 29 points in the second half. Also, there's no question back up guard Craig Austrie (39% shooter, only 14 steals compared to Dyson's 44 steals) is a MAJOR step down from Dyson.
The shortening of the rotation has to scare Connecticut-backers, because the Huskies are not a deep team, and will be hard-pressed to match Pittsburgh's energy level if they continue to go with a shortened rotation. Note, the improved play of Gilbert Brown and solid play of Wannamaker give the Panthers a huge edge coming off the bench.
From a match up standpoint, no team in the Big East in better equipped to deal with the Huskies frontline than Pittsburgh. In fact, I'd argue that its UCONN that needs to worry tonight, because for as good as Thabeet has been of late, he's very foul prone, and that will be a huge issue for the Huskies tonight. The frontline of Blair, Young, and Biggs is as good as any in the nation, and the fact they have the BEST point guard in the country feeding them the basketball is the difference in this one. Levance Fields 3.98 assists to 1 turnover ratio is outstanding, and you best believe he'll be finding his bigmen all night long.
One final note, with Dyson out, the Pitt defense will be able to concentrate on two things: A. Stopping Thabeet, who can be stopped if given proper attention (Adrien on the other hand, is not as raw offensively). And B. Putting pressure on AJ Price, who's been known to turn the ball over plenty (leads team with 65 turnovers). Look for Dixon to provide another lockdown defensive effort on the perimeter, much like he did Saturday against the Bearcats (just ask the Cincinnati's Deonta Vaughn how good a defender he is)! In the end, Pittsburgh has all the pieces necessary to win this game, and while we'll still take the points, don't be surprise if we see another # 1 get knocked off tonight.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points over Connecticut as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Texas A&M- Needless to say, this is a BIG game for the Aggies, who have stumbled down the stretch and desperately need to get back on track. Losers of 6 of their last 8 games, they've struggled in conference play, but if ever there was a time to back A&M, it would be tonight against rival Texas and here's why:
Although the Longhorns snapped their 3-game losing streak earlier this month, winning their last 2 games, I'm still not convinced. True, their home win over Okie State was impressive, but we're not talking about a home game here tonight. More notable is their near loss at Colorado, where they needed OT to get the win, but the game was razor close throughout, so don't let the final score fool you. That was a game they were expected to win, and clearly they did not play well on the road. More of the same tonight, as they face an even tougher task tonight at Redd Arena, where the Aggies are 13-2 SU and desperate for a bounce back win.
Much has been made of the Aggies recent SU slide, but bettors know they have remained profitable ATS, covering 5 of their last 6, including their most recent meeting with Texas, a 67-58 road loss, but cover as a 12-point dog. Factor in the revenge angle, and you've got the perfect storm brewing for an impressive A&M effort tonight. Note, Texas has won the last two meetings, so there's plenty of payback to be had in this one!
Finally, the biggest reason the Longhorns have found themselves in trouble of late, has been their lack of intensity on defense. Texas is allowing 72 ppg on nearly 44% shooting over their last 5 games, including getting torched by Colorado for almost 49% shooting in their last one. Defense like that could EASILY cost them this contest, as the Aggies are much better team than Colorado, and Texas will learn that the hard way tonight.
Take Texas A&M plus the points over Texas in this college hoops match up.