how are lines set?
supernate12
Junior Member
im sure this question has been asked a millioin times but i would appreciate the help because i dont know the answer...How are the lines set for any bet? I would like to start coming up with my own lines.. what are some different systems you guys use vs. vegas etc... and if this is a completely stupid question i do apologize but i couldnt find the answer anywhere.
Thanks,
Nate
Thanks,
Nate
Comments
say your going to play Arnold Palmer for a unit and even though he's 80 he can still best his age by 5 shots and you shoot low 70's on an average. Well in England if you were a sports book you would take a lot of things into consideration but to keep a longstory short they would take you -2 meaning you would have to give up a shot a side to the king to make things interesting and knowing that the king would get all pissed off and shoot 71 to your 74.
Follow what these other guys say before goin out and gettin your own blue ribbon.
thanks,
Nate
2. Las Vegas Sports Consultants is the <i>PREMIER</i> linemaking service. All Nevada Sportsbooks and most offshores use them. They also monitor lines as the action comes in and suggest changes.
3. Almost every book has "in house" handicappers to adjust lines by a small amount depending on their clientele and which side of the action they are more likely to bet into.
4. The last step before the public sees any lines is that they are offered to a select group of heavy hitters that bet into the lines at reduced or "no vig" prices. That tells the books where they are likely to get sided by the big bucks.
5. The lines are then released for public betting and adjustments made as bets come in. Books are very careful when reacting to public money because driving the lines in favor of what their heavy hitters thought early in the day can be very dangerous. If the heavy hitters liked Team A +8 and they opened it at +6, they will be very reluctant to get back to +8 because more big bucks will jump in at that point.
Linemaking and adjusting is a profession and those folks are to be admired for what they do. If Team A beats the spread by 25 points it does not mean they made a bad line. If 60% of the money was on Team A (money, not the public), then they made a bad line, because the purpose of the line is to draw 50% of the money (not the public) to each side of the proposition. This is also an example of why we, as bettors, must respect the opening lines. They were arrived at by some very sharp people. Blindly following "steam" can send you to the poorhouse in a heartbeat.
If you want to make your own lines there is only pne thing I would suggest for starters. You must not use all or most of the factors the public uses when handicapping. All they will lead you to is what the public believes and bets into. Compiling <i>TRUE</i> power ratings and utilizing them involves great faith in what you have established and great faith in your own numbers over the course of the long haul. If you hit over 51% the first full season and can improve that by 1% a year you are on the right track.
One other thing. There are, contrary to what someone said earlier, classes in sports handicapping and wagering available at the college level. UNLV offers them. I don't know if they are available online or by correspondence, but they are available. Another source I have used for years is Gamblers Book Club of Las Vegas. Look them up online. They have a ton of material available by mail order. You would be surprised how many losers have never read a decent work on the subject of sports gambling realities or probabilities. Face it, some of the guys spouting off the loudest haven't opened a book of any kind since high school. Good luck.
seriously New England -24 against the Eagles LY?
i remember at the time when i bet the Eagles + the points and the ML i postulated that in 3 months we would all be saying i can't believe i didn't hammer Phi gettin' 24. but it didn't stop there with New England, they played against inflated lines all the way to and including the Superbowl. the public has no memory and is often hamstringed by a "they're gonna kill em" mentality.
meaning a one week good performance is enough to convince bettors. let's use New England again, they were favored at home over the Steelers, a ML bet i posted and was lucky enough to win. the biggest driving factor behind it was Cassel's record setting games vs Jets and Fins. the biggest factor driving me to back Pittsburgh was, keep this in mind if they make the playoffs, Pats toughest defense was against the 16th ranked Jets. Cassel was overwhelmed in that game.
if you are talking about capping your own games a couple of things:
1. start with a sport you like and that you know. I am decent at football, but i suck at most other sports. i won't even try the NBA. the only way to explain it is i get football.
2. unlike Key, i rely heavily on stats. after 10 or 11 games, it is hard to hide a bad rushing defense or an ineffecient offense.
3. i also like to find the story behing the game. every game has a story and it must be factored into your capping. the circumstances change weekly for a team as do their motivations.
4. never be too proud to ask for help. i do it all the time. ask questions and tap the huge database of information BT members bring to the board.
GL
It was a rare case where Vegas just did not vant action on the games at all.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.
"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
Nate
Most books do not employ bookmakers, they employ personell managers.
There are maybe 3-4 bookmakers left in town in the current climate.
LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) is not in every sports book.
They are the only licensed line service, but do not confuse this with thinking they make the lines that are used by books.
Other services have tried to enter the markey, but lack resources, both political and financial to do so (similar to Republic Services being the only licensed waste hauler.)
Most of the books that do have LVSC use it to monitor line movement in town, as it is, again, the only licensed service.
The books that do use Don Best do so on the sly, via personal accounts, not casino approved, bought and paid.
Here's is how lines are made in general, for the following week's contests, using the NFL for example, since that is where the largest part of the books revenue comes from (more than all other posrts combined):
On Sunday, during the first half of the afternoon games, 4-5 guys at one book in Vegas go off on their own and make their number for the next week's games. After they are done with second half wagering on the late games (putting up numbers, approving large wagers, moving numbers and shutting off the games at kickoff) they get together and confer on what the lines will be for next week's games.
The individuals involved make their numbers based on experience at making lines, factoring current play, early lines offered on big games and action taken on them, and betting habits.
After much arguing, and some ridicule if you're way off on your #, they settle on a number.
That number goes up on the board for early betting.
At that time there is no LVSC # for the games. The only other # that is usually available is one off shore house. Every book in town sees the # from those two houses, via the LVSC screen, but only a few offer early betting.
Most books put their first #'s up on Monday morning, based on what they see as the available concensus # offered by the books displaying #'s on their screen.
I don't know of a single book that looks to see what LVSC says the line should be, and just puts that # up. There may well be one or two, since, as I already pointed out there are few true oddsmakers employed anymore, but it is not the norm.
Bookmaking is a lost art. Long gone are the days of approx. 40 licensed sportsbooks in town, with each house having oddsmakers make their own # and offering it to the public.
Today, it is conglomerates, hubs, bean counters and internet driven line movers, in short - monkey work.
Sorry conspiracy theorists, but there is no such thing.
You hear it talked about alot, but it just ain't so, it does not exist.
I have never heard the line making conversation include anything even remotely similar to:
"Hey, let's put up X # to trick Joe Public into betting team A."
Is "which team will the public most likely bet" factored in?
Of course.
But the # is never made designed to trick you into changing your bet, it's never a matter of "Hey, let's put this # at -9 because all the suckers will think it looks too good and they'll bet on it and we can clean up."
There are no tricks, no traps.
And if anyone is wondering why there are few bookmakers left, simple - it's due to measurements.
CFO's measure ROI by the sq. foot.
Let's say you own a casino. Your business is, like any other, to max profits.
Sportsbetting produces 4-5 % GP, and that's only IF you don't have a complete moron taking bets and moving your lines (trust me, some books struggle to make 2-3%)
You also have slots, which produce ten times and more than that in GP.
And they don't require expensive health care.
And they never call in sick.
And they don't cheat or get cheated,
or make mistakes on payouts
and they don't cost you tens of thousands of dollars in fines from the NGC (Nevada Gaming Commission) if you do not do your reporting properly.
How are you going to allocate YOUR limited amount of floor space?
That is why, if you are a regular visitor, you will have noticed over the past ten years the shrinkage of sports book areas, some down to little more than a betting counter and a couple of TV's these days.
For the Vegas conspiracy theorists, a true story, an excerpt from a column I wrote a few weeks back:
I was behind the counter at the sportsbook one night, watching the final minutes of a game and waiting to watch over payouts, when Giants HC Jim Fassel had his QB run a few plays rather than pass, while deep in enemy territory, to use up the clock and end the game.
A tourist came up to the counter, screaming, saying that we called the coach and told him to not try and score so he would lose his bet on the Over.
I'm not kidding, I'm not making this up.
This guy was real, or unreal if you would, he meant it, he believed it.
Security came over, I said, "Let me handle this."
I said to Joe Tourist,
"Let me see if I have this right - you think that:
A - I have coach Fassels cell phone number
B - I called him
C - He answered it, IN THE MIDDLE OF A GAME, IN FRONT OF THOUSANDS OF FANS AND PEOPLE WATCHING ON TV
D - I told him what to do
and . . .
C - HE LISTENED TO ME??!!
All because YOU have a couple thousand on a game?"
The guy was ballistic, not to mention mental, and security removed him.
Are games fixed?
Of course.
And anyone who thinks it's just the college game (although the biggest crooks are in NCAA hoops where the nature and variety of games allows them to more easily remain undiscovered) can write to Tim Donaghy and ask him - care of Club Fed, Florida Chapter.
It's not the ones we know of that I wonder about, the ones proven in court, it's the ones we don't know about.
Are all, or most games fixed? No.
But what is the ratio of known ones vs unknown?
I don't know. But it is naive to think the only ones it happened in are the ones where players, refs, or time keepers (remember the NBA guy who got caught holding back on the clock so he could hit his Over bets?) actually got caught and convicted.
And there have been enough of those to kill the "sports aren't fixed" argument.
But don't buy into "Vegas did it" - sportsbooks are an almost invisible % of overall revenue for casinos. And there is no mass conspiracy of collusion between combined books.
It's not about a city, or a business, it's about a couple of little guys in striped shirts.
The amount of money exchanging hands on games is mind-boggling, and the variety of ways to do so leaves anonymity almost guaranteed.
And when the economy is troubled, as it is today, all forms of gambling see revenue spikes. Same as it ever was: the policy racket soared during the Depression.
"Vegas" did not get on the phone yesterday and tell the refs "Hey, screw Pittsburgh for us today, we need SD" any more than I got on the phone and called Fassel that day.
It doesn't work like that, that's not what happened.
Bookmakers win, and take losses. The losses don't come out of their pocket, and it is an expected part of the job. And as I said, books are a VERY small % the houses P and L anyway.
No in-season football game makes that big a difference, and even the Super Bowl is still a small piece of the overall picture, one that involves slots, craps, cards, hotel rooms, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.
"Vegas" is not one huge conglomerate, with one single purpose or outcome desired on any one game.
Not every house, needs the same team, every game.
"Vegas" does not get on the phone and call anybody.
EVERY betting scandal, every conviction that has ever resulted from them, has been individuals in small groups.
And sometimes, they wear striped shirts to work . . .