Math Question, I would appreciate opinions
Produce
Banned
If I put the numbers 1-20 into a hat and told you I was going to draw out a single number and I would give you odds on that number being exactly 3.
The odds on that number NOT being 3 are -1800
Would you take this bet? If yes, would you take it more than once? If no, why not?
Thanks in advance and I'm sure you all know where I'm going with this
The odds on that number NOT being 3 are -1800
Would you take this bet? If yes, would you take it more than once? If no, why not?
Thanks in advance and I'm sure you all know where I'm going with this
Comments
First of all, I don't think it was a bad bet you made. I really doubt Den was going to lose being up 17-0 at half.
I wouldn't take the bet because if that guy Chris Angel was picking the number, I guarantee you he'd pick that fuking three out of the hat, LOL!!!!
i played the phillies tonight so cant say anything about anyone lol
To make money you need to have the money to risk. You won and it was a good bet. Some people have a philosophy of not laying those heavy odds. My opinion,"to each their own"
Good Job my friend.
i think the bet would be stupid if you lost.... it would've been a lot different if you were betting on tennis where a player was favored over -1500. i think it was last year when sharapova lost when i think she was -2000. and it's not like this game just started. you saw how both teams were playing on both sides of the ball for a half.
everyone has different methods of betting. its your money so u should be able to do what you want with it.
I know it wasn't directed at me. I'm not sure quite how to figure out the odds on that.
I play this card game called in-between. It's a match pot game. You throw two cards up and bet a certain amount of the pot based on if the next card is "in-between" the other two. If the card hits the same as one that is thrown, then you you have to pay double to the pot. I see so many people that see Q-2 or J-2 that bet pot and dont realize how shitty the odds are. On a Q-2, there are 16/52 cards that will you.
And in Hold 'em, I can figure out odds of cards that would beat me or cards that I could win with. Just don't know about this one.
But we are not pulling numbers otta hats We are playing the NFL and i have seen many many times a team look completely different from 1st half to 2nd half
sooner or later this bet will cost you and i will bet on that
the game you're referring to is also called acey-deucy, and it's an evil, evil game. That game always defies logic, and most everyone goes down hard. You get the A-2 draw, and you have to bet pot, and it seems like everytime you hit the post.
The result of the bet has nothing to do with whether or not it was "good" or "bad"
Doesn't that really depend on whether you're a Kantian or Neitzchian philosopher? :wonder:
The result is everything.
How many times have you seen complete reversals in halves of football games.
Maybe i am not getting this can u tell me how you capped this to UNDER A 7% chance or estimated it ??
I think Brians you are still missing the boat here. In the example Produce gave above, betting No at -1800 when the true odds are 20-1 is a good bet, regardless of whether it wins or not. If it loses, was it a bad bet or a bad beat (bad luck, whatever you want to call it). In his example, it would CLEARLY be a good bet, since you know that odds are in your favor. It isn't that simple betting sports. All this game boils down to is that every punter estimates his advantage on a bet, otherwise you would not make it. If you estimate a bet wins 60% of the time, and you are only laying -110, then in your mind it is a good bet, regardless of the outcome. When you bet it, clearly you think you have an advantage, but that doesn't mean it cannot lose. Maybe after it loses, you have to re-evaluate and decide if the bet was indeed a good bet or not. I have had plenty of bets that I would make again in the same spot that I still think were good plays, even if they went down.
So, I have to disagree...the result does not change if a bet was "good" or not. Haven't you had plenty a bet that lost on some heartbreak or fluke play? Wouldn't you make the bet again if the same situation came up? It was a good bet, just an unfortunate outcome.
The recent Super Bowl was a great example of a good bet that lost. NE was -400 and many "sharp" players pounded that number, since the spread was double digit, which normally would equate to more like -500 or -600. Clearly a value, just not the result they wanted.
Take another example....poker, since it has been huge on TV. Say your opponent pushes all in on you with pocket 8's, and you have pocket K's. You call and lose. Was it a bad bet because of the result? Of course not, just bad luck.
Thats all maybe i will learn something today,
In the last 42 games the Raiders have scored more than 17 points in the 2nd half, the amount they would have needed at a minimum to cause me to lose, ONCE. This is not taking into account they would have to shut out the Broncos in the 2nd half to cover.
1/42 or 2.4%
This is an example of something I would look at while handicapping such a large money line. After this I would check to see if the Broncos were ever leading at halftime and were outscored by more than 17 in the 2nd half. I don't remember the results from the other night, but the answer was never.
For me to lose this bet both of these would have to have come true. I'm still traveling so I can't do the math and I can't find the exact stats on the 2nd half Broncos, but the odds are much worse than 7.7% as you can see