Service Play Thread for Saturday
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RULES:
1. Please do not post any plays from site sponsors:
Right Angle Sports
Advantage Plays
Who2BetOn (The Prez, Pacific Star, LT Profits, Mike Rose, Alex Smart, JBSports, AJ Apollo, Ken Jenkins, Jon Gold, Dr D Sports, Mike Martell)
2. Please do not post any plays from site contributors:
AAA Sports
3. Please keep the thread as clean as possible by not repeating requests for plays.
4. DO NOT post e-mail addresses or request others to post their own.
Thank you!
Comments
SATURDAY 7/14:
Phillies -1.5 +120 (Maroth and Hamels listed)
Cubs -120
WAS/FLA over 8.5 -120 (Chico and Mitre listed)
Twins -110 (Silva listed)
(all plays are for one unit unless otherwise specified)
cappersaccess
(Sat) MLB Cubs Astros 125 Astros
(Sat) MLB Braves Pirates 135 Braves
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Jul 14 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: At 3:55pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. After getting off to a very hot start, Giants starter Matt Morris is now pitching much more like you'd expect from an overpaid 33 year-old righthander. He has been particularly easy to hit in his last four starts where he's given up 39 hits in only 22 2/3 innings. And things probably won't get any easier for him against the Dodgers, a team that Morris has only beaten twice in the last 10 times he's faced them dating all the way back to 2002. The Dodgers have won an astounding 13 of 17 meetings between these two NL West rivals. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.<!-- / message -->
Saturday 7/14
Chicago w/Lilly over Houston w/Oswalt
Cubbies send Ted Lilly to the hill against Roy Oswalt and the Astros this afternoon knowing Lilly's 3.25 ERA at home is nearly a full run better than his road ERA this season. On the flip side, Oswalt's 5.68 ERA is more than THREE RUNS higher than his home ERA. Look for Chicago to hammer Houston here today.
20 Dime
White Sox
15 Dime
Yankees -1.5 runs
10 Dime
Tigers
5 Dimes
Astros
Nationals
Rangers
20 Dime
White Sox
15 Dime
Yankees -1.5 runs
10 Dime
Tigers
5 Dimes
Astros
NATS
Rangers
FREE PLAY: Padres
saturday ALL 3* PLAYS
Our 3 selections include the White Sox, the over in the White Sox game, and the 'under' in the Toronto/Boston game.
White Sox/Orioles 'over' -- At 7:05pm our selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles 'over' the total. The Orioles have given up on several pitchers throughout the years who have then gone on to other teams only to be very productive, and in some cases, outright stars. Most notably within the last ten years there's been Armando Benitez, who has been one of the best closers in the league after departing the O's, and Arthur Rhodes, who developed into one of the best setup men. More recently there's been BJ Ryan and to some extent, Rodrigo Lopez. Current Orioles righthanded starter Daniel Cabrera fits this mode to a tee. There is no denying his talent, but he has been extremely frustrating and damaging as a regular member of the O's rotation. His numbers this season have actually regressed to the point where he may not make it through the season as a starter. If they give up on Cabrera, he is exactly the type of player who will get it together as soon as he finds a new home. But for now, count on him going out there and getting blown out, especially at home, where his numbers are particularly dreadful. He's given up an average of over five earned runs in each of his last four home starts. And if ever there was a matchup that produces runs, it's the Orioles and White Sox. In their last twelve games against each other, these two teams have scored a total of 156 runs, or an amazing thirteen runs per contest. And the over is 13-3 in Cabrera's last sixteen home starts. Take the 'over'.
White Sox -- At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox. As I stated in our write up on the 'over' in this game, I fully expect Daniel Cabrera to get lit up tonight, and we'll play on Chicago.
Toronto/Boston 'under' -- At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Boston game with Matsuzaka and McGowan starting. Both pitchers are in spectacular form, with McGowan's WHIP at 0.90 over his last 3 starts and Matsuzaka's WHIP at 0.95. Matsuzaka has faced the Jays twice this year and held them to 3 runs in 13 innings with 18 strikeouts. Take the 'under'. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Chairman - Cubs
Millionaire - Tigers
<!-- / message -->
5 STAR: (903) HOUSTON (+$102) over Chicago
(Listing Oswalt only)
(Risking $500 to win $510)
3 STAR: (926) MINNESOTA (-$101) over Oakland
(Listing Silva only)
(Risking $303 to win $300)
3 STAR: (929) DETROIT (-$117) over Seattle
(Listing Rogers only)
(Risking $351 to win $300)
1 STAR: (901) ST. LOUIS (+$170) over Philadelphia
(Listing Maroth only)
(Risking $100 to win $170)
1 STAR: (909) COLORADO (+$170) over Milwaukee
(Listing Lopez only)
(Risking $100 to win $170)
1 STAR: (911) PITTSBURGH (+$131) over Atlanta
(Listing Gorzelanny only)
(Risking $100 to win $131)
1 STAR: (913) CINCINNATI (+$168) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $168)
1 STAR: (919) KANSAS CITY (+$192) over Cleveland
(Listing Meche only)
(Risking $100 to win $192)
<!-- / message -->
30 Dime - Detroit
10 Dime - Oak A's
Free Pick - NYY Run Line
<!-- / message -->
Burns Total Play - Balt/CWS Over
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (3rd) Rushbuckler, 4-1
(7th) Coach Elbe There, 10-1
Belmont Park (1st) Harvest Lisa, 5-1
(7th) Codeword (Ire), 3-1
Calder Race Course (9th) Archer Fleet, 3-1
(10th) Our Destiny, 3-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Duke Deluxe, 4-1
(8th) Big Tex, 3-1
Charles Town (1st) Excommunicated, 3-1
(5th) Make Me Smile, 8-1
Colonial Downs (5th) Just Say Boo, 6-1
(9th) Marabunta, 5-1
Delaware Park (4th) Fit for a Fight, 9-2
(5th) Casual, 3-1
Ellis Park (8th) Daring Don, 9-2
(9th) Hayburner, 5-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Corona's Party, 7-2
(3rd) Mary's Legacy, 5-1
Evangeline Downs (7th) De Quincy, 7-2
(10th) Lone Star Bandit, 3-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Forluvof Thegame, 7-2
(9th) Fixed Ops, 5-1
Fort Erie (6th) Untouched, 7-2
(7th) Duckey, 6-1
Great Lakes Downs (2nd) Faster Prospect, 7-2
(8th) Wanna Make It, 4-1
Hastings Park (1st) Sideline, 7-2
(8th) Classic Show, 4-1
Hollywood Park (6th) Fifth Base, 9-2
(7th) Cheese Face, 3-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Alleged Hug, 7-2
(9th) She's Got Thefever, 4-1
Louisiana Downs (9th) Mr Bubba, 7-2
(11th) Welsh Connection, 5-1
Monmouth Park (2nd) Fortunate Slew, 9-2
(7th) Ismus, 5-1
Mountaineer (5th) Detour Express, 7-2
(7th) Glows Sunshine, 8-1
Northlands (6th) Jammin Jazz, 7-2
(8th) Excludem Pal, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (7th) Royal Brandy, 9-2
(8th) Dune Drive Avalon, 6-1
Prairie Meadows (4th) Miz Moody Blues, 9-2
(5th) Lady's Opportunity, 6-1
River Downs (5th) D. J. Tyler, 6-1
(7th) I'll Do More, 5-1
Suffolk Downs (8th) Kemosabi's Pride, 9-2
(9th) Polkadot, 4-1
Thistledown (4th) Crown Reserve, 7-2
(10th) Huntin for Bear, 5-1
Woodbine (1st) Can B Valid, 7-2
(4th) Ascot Annie, 3-1
DELAWARE OAKS (G2), 8TH-DEL, $500,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/16M, 3:54 P.M. EDT, 7-14
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 WINNING POINT GAUDET EDMOND D DOMINGUEZ R A 116
2 HIGH HEELS HARTLAGE GARY G JOHNSON J M 122
3 COTTON BLOSSOM PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 122
4 BEAR NOW BAKER READE RAMSAMMY E 122
5 DAWN AFTER DAWN HAWLEY WESLEY PINO M G 116
6 MOON CATCHER RITCHEY TIM F MARQUEZ C H JR 120
7 GREENSTREET TAGG BARCLAY ROSE J 116
8 TOUGH TIZ'S SIS BAFFERT BOB GOMEZ G K 122
Saturday's $500,000 Delaware Oaks (G2) has drawn a competitive field of eight, and the 1 1/16-mile test will allow recent Acorn S. (G1) victress COTTON BLOSSOM (Broken Vow) a chance to turn the tables on rival HIGH HEELS (E Dubai).
The pair first met in the Fantasy S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park in April, with High Heels easily taking the win by 6 3/4 lengths while Cotton Blossom finished best of the rest. Next out in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), High Heels ran third while her adversary eventually crossed under the line in ninth. The two went separate ways for their next race, with High Heels running seventh in her turf debut in the Regret S. (G3) and Cotton Blossom scoring in the Acorn. Based on past performances, though, we think that High Heels will return to her winning ways in this spot, once again holding off her rival. The Gary Hartlage-trained bay earned triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings for her Fantasy and Oaks performances and will keep regular rider Joe Johnson aboard while returning to the dirt.
Cotton Blossom will definitely be tough to deny, but the Todd Pletcher charge has shown her best form while going shorter distances. She did capture the 8 1/2-furlong Florida Oaks in her seasonal bow, but was racing against lesser on that occasion. The bay lass earned a career-best 105 Speed figure for her Acorn score, and could be stepping up to a new level, but we'll try to beat her. John Velazquez has the call.
TOUGH TIZ'S SIS (Tiznow) is a consistent performer, taking an allowance/optional claimer for trainer Bob Baffert before adding black-type to her record in the Sunland Park Oaks. She was thrown to the wolves off that win when trying the Kentucky Oaks next out, finishing seventh, then was brought back for her synthetic track debut in the Hollywood Breeders' Cup Oaks (G2) last out. The bay filly took the lead soon after the start of that 1 1/16-mile test and led all the way home to record a 3 1/2-length victory. Tough Tiz's Sis earned a nice 101 BRIS E2 Pace rating for that win and could try to set all the pace once again here. She'll be difficult to run down under Garrett Gomez.
BEAR NOW (Tiznow) is something of a question mark. The Reade Baker miss has spent most of her career running on Woodbine's Polytrack, earning four wins and two thirds, and her three tries on a normal surface resulted in off-the-board finishes. The dark bay lass has shown marked improvement of late, though, taking her past two races -- the Selene S. (Can-G3) and Hill 'n' Dale S. -- by a combined 17 3/4 lengths. If Bear Now can handle the dirt at Delaware, she'll challenge for the win. Emile Ramsammy travels south for the ride.
WINNING POINT (Point Given) was second in the Susan's Girl Breeders' Cup S. over the track last out after filling that same spot in the Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2) and Comely S. (G2) in her prior two. The Edmond Gaudet trainee has never finished worse than second in her six-race career and deserves consideration for the exotics in this spot. MOON CATCHER's (Malibu Moon) only off-the-board finish came in her stakes debut in mid-May when she ran fourth in the Black-Eyed Susan. She returned a month later to take the Susan's Girl by a front-running two lengths and has recorded some nice bullet moves of late at Delaware. The bay might earn a check if she runs back to that form.
GREENSTREET (Street Cry [Ire]) won the Polly's Jet S. here before running third to Moon Catcher last out in the Susan's Girl. She seems to be a step below that one, so we'll let her beat us. DAWN AFTER DAWN (Successful Appeal) hasn't been able to handle graded rivals in her past five races and we don't think she'll do so here either.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-HIGH HEELS
2nd-COTTON BLOSSOM
3rd-TOUGH TIZ'S SIS
SWAPS BREEDERS' CUP S. (G2), 8TH-HOL, $350,000, 3YO, 1 1/8M, 4:50 P.M. PDT, 7-14
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 AUGMENT GALLAGHER PATRICK SOLIS A 112
2 ALBERTUS MAXIMUS MANDELLA GARY FLORES D R 112
3 TIAGO SHIRREFFS JOHN SMITH M E 122
4 DESERT CODE HOFMANS DAVID MIGLIORE R 118
5 AWESOME GAMBLER DOMINGUEZ CAESAR F ESPINOZA V 112
6 SOUVENIR SLEW DOLLASE CRAIG BAZE M C 112
Three of the top four finishers in the Affirmed H. (G3) will return for Saturday's $350,000 Swaps Breeders' Cup S. (G2), but the top draw is TIAGO (Pleasant Tap). Winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the sophomore colt finished well for seventh in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and grabbed third in the Belmont S. (G1) last out, 5 1/2 lengths back of Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy). His class edge is evident, but Tiago has never raced over a synthetic surface.
DESERT CODE (E Dubai) is the speed, and we'll tab him for a wire-to-wire victory. Winner of the Affirmed on the engine, the chestnut colt won't face any speed***** in the Swaps. He recorded a 100 BRIS E2 Pace rating last time as well as a 99 BRIS Speed number, which is better than all his rivals but Tiago. Perhaps more importantly, the David Hofmans trainee likes Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, posting a 2-0-1 mark in three starts, with the lone setback coming around one turn. Desert Code shouldn't have any trouble handling nine furlongs, and they'll have to catch him to beat him.
Tiago could be up to the task, but he's shown the tendency to leave himself too much to do. His run style worked well in the Santa Anita Derby, when the leaders were gassed by midstretch, but the late runner will likely have a tedious pace to run down here. Conditioner John Shirreffs probably won't have his charge fully cranked, with bigger goals like the Travers S. (G1) up ahead, and Tiago won't disgrace himself with a runner-up showing.
ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great) is a promising three-year-old from the Gary Mandella stable. A maiden winner three starts back, the bay colt rolled to an easy score over allowance opponents on the Cushion Track next out and then made his stakes debut in the Affirmed. Albertus Maximus rallied to be a good second last time, 1 3/4 lengths behind Desert Code, and he's a threat to turn the tables on his rival. He owns more tactical speed than Tiago and has shown an affinity for the Cushion Track, and we wouldn't be shocked to see Albertus Maximus keep moving forward with a winning performance.
AWESOME GAMBLER (Coronado's Quest) faltered as the Affirmed favorite, dead-heating for fourth, but he had run very well in his two previous attempts on Cushion Track, winning a maiden special weight event and the Alydar S. The late-running colt will probably appreciate the added sixteenth of a mile here, but he might get hurt by a lack of pace once again. Awesome Gambler still merits serious respect for a top-three placing.
AUGMENT (Aptitude) will make his stakes bow off a May 27 allowance score at Hollywood. He was no match for Albertus Maximus two starts back, and we're prepared to give the Paddy Gallagher pupil at least one race at this level. SOUVENIR SLEW (Souvenir Copy) found a home on the turf three starts back and exits a third in the Colonial Turf Cup S. (G3). Turf horses are always a threat switching to a synthetic surface, but Souvenir Slew faces a difficult task here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-DESERT CODE
2nd-TIAGO
3rd-ALBERTUS MAXIMUS
POKER H. (G3), 8TH-BEL, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 7-14
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ART MASTER FRANKEL ROBERT J GOMEZ G K 116
2 JET PROPULSION HURTAK DANIEL NUNEZ E O 116
3 CLASSIC CAMPAIGN MOTT WILLIAM I DESORMEAUX K J 115
4 YATE'S BLACK CAT ROMANS DALE ROJAS R I 113
5 GIMME CREDIT HILLS TIMOTHY A VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
6 LEADWITHYOURCHIN HUSHION MICHAEL E BRIDGMOHAN S X 113
7 HOST (CHI) PLETCHER TODD A DECARLO C P 119
8 WOODLANDER CONTESSA GARY C LUZZI M J 114
9 CARNERA MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P COA E M 114
10 ELECTRIC LIGHT REYNOLDS PATRICK J CHAVEZ J F 115
11 INDIAN WAR DANCE CONTESSA GARY C LUZZI M J 114
Eleven horses, including a main-track only runner, are entered in Saturday's $100,000 Poker H. (G3), and the one-mile turf event looks wide open. ART MASTER (Royal Academy) will be making his second start of the season for Bobby Frankel, and we'll give the six-year-old top billing.
A multiple Group 3 victor in France, Art Master made his U.S. debut last September in the Kelso Breeders' Cup H. (G2) and rallied from the back of the pack for third-place honors, 2 1/2 lengths behind Ashkal Way (Ire) (Ashkalani). He made only one more start last year, a failed attempt at nine furlongs, and re-surfaced this season in a May 17 dirt allowance/optional claiming event at Belmont Park, finishing a creditable second behind an impressive Harlington (Unbridled). Art Master is eligible to move forward significantly off that tightener. His BRIS numbers are good enough, and the lightly raced individual has won three of six starts at a mile on the turf. We'll look for him to earn his first U.S. stakes win.
JET PROPULSION (Double Honor), who is cross-entered at Delaware Park on Sunday, is a win threat in the Poker. Winner of the Miami Mile Breeders' Cup H. (G3) in wire-to-wire fashion last out, he'll flash to the front from his inside post and could prove impossible to reel in. Based in South Florida, the four-year-old gelding appears to be finding his best form presently for trainer Danny Hurtak, and Eddie Nunez will travel in for the ride.
HOST (Chi) (Hussonet) can't be overlooked. Winner of the 2005 Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G1), the seven-year-old raced only twice last season, but he appears to be back in fine health with three efforts this season, including a victory in the one-mile Elkwood S. most recently. The Todd Pletcher runner typically records century-topping BRIS Late Pace ratings, and the late runner owns the class to come out on top.
CLASSIC CAMPAIGN (Rahy) merits respect. Trained by Bill Mott, the five-year-old gelding owns a solid closing kick (Late Pace ratings of 97-109-106 in his last three starts) and has run well at Belmont before despite going winless in four attempts. Classic Campaign just missed last time versus allowance/optional claiming rivals going 1 1/8 miles, and Ashkal Way caught him by a head in an 8 1/2-furlong stakes at Belmont last summer. Classic Campaign will cut back to his preferred distance on Saturday, and we'll include him in some exotics.
GIMME CREDIT (Artax) is another one to consider. The New York-bred turned in a sharp performance versus open rivals going seven furlongs last time and will be making his graded debut on Saturday. While impressed by his most recent effort, we didn't like Gimme Credit's sixth when traveling a mile two starts back at Belmont. That did follow a freshening, however, and the four-year-old gelding could prove tough to handle if able to duplicate his last showing.
LEADWITHYOURCHIN (Dynaformer) returned from a lengthy layoff with a sharp victory over allowance/optional claiming rivals last out at Belmont. One-for-one at a mile, the five-year-old offers appeal for the gimmicks at long odds (20-1 morning line), but he might be more effective at longer distances. YATE'S BLACK CAT (Black Minnaloushe) will step up off a pair of fine allowance showings at Churchill Downs for Dale Romans. He may want a little more ground, and we'll just watch to see how the four-year-old handles this class check.
CARNERA (Old Trieste) hasn't finished better than seventh in his last four turf starts. His form last year was good enough to challenge here, but we can't recommend based on his recent outings. ELECTRIC LIGHT (Silver Ghost) doesn't appear to be entering the Poker at the top of his game, and he's saddled with an outside post. We'll take a stand against.
WOODLANDER (Forestry) is a three-time winner on the turf at Belmont, but he may need an easier spot. INDIAN WAR DANCE (Cherokee Run), coupled with Woodlander, is entered for the main track only.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-ART MASTER
2nd-JET PROPULSION
3rd-HOST (Chi)
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for July Saturday, 14
RACE ONE
JUSTINPLACE found allowance types a bit too difficult June 10, so he scampers back to a claimer. In his previous outing, against slightly softer, he tracked the leaders then powered home for an easy victory. OUR PARTNER comes off a hard fought loss just six days ago. His form makes him a threat, but 'Partner's recent race may have left him sapped. BALLESTERO ran well in his first start over this course, but the race was against cheaper company.
RACE TWO
ALPINE SPORT would be a standout were if not for the rail draw. As it is, his last race still makes him difficult to beat. 'SPORT gave class dropper Voracious all he could handle, finishing only a length back, and now returns at the same level. FRENCH SOUVENIR drops several floors and takes off the blinkers after stopping badly. Joe Talamo in the saddle suggests 'SOUVENIR may not be totally shot. SWISS LAD abandoned his form after being claimed by Steve Knapp. Maybe this drastic plunge will wake him up.
RACE THREE
GOLDEN VIA was claimed by Mike Puype for $12,500 at Golden Gate Fields May 23, then shipped south to register a romping win at the same level. Puype now protects the filly by stepping her up to $25,000. We're a big fan of sharp runners catapulting in class. MADERA ROYAL aired in her last two races on the main track. She's back on the Cushion today, a surface on which she defeated starter allowance foes May 3. HOLD THE GAME is a consistent check-getter for Ed Moger. She's been in the money 12 of 21 starts racing at or around this price.
RACE FOUR
CHANCELLOR got the opportunity to route on the grass and ran a bangup second, a scant nose back. With that experience and the inside post, he looms a short price to exit the maiden ranks. MONTE BAJO was a close fourth to repeat winner Frank the Barber despite being pushed extremely wide on the first turn. 'BAJO was coming off a nine week layoff, so improvement can be expected today. SENIOR competed in the Hollywood Futurity as a maiden last December. He's had ample time to regroup and obviously his connections think a lot of him.
RACE FIVE
I'M ALL OUT finally struck paydirt after four straight seconds with a powerful maiden victory June 23. The win was accomplished in fast time and the son of Include can come right back against winners. KRUGER PARK tried rating tactics after graduating in wire to wire fashion. He made a looping move to grab a brief lead entering the stretch before tiring the last sixteenth. He's still learning the game and can do better. ROBBOS COURAGE never got involved routing on the turf. He ran his best races going short, so this elongated sprint should be right up his alley.
RACE SIX
NOSEY BRITCHES faces a lackluster field after a year layoff. Anything resembling her runner-up effort when last seen should get the money. ALMOST A TEN was dueled into submission through some swift fractions July 4. She lost a tough photo after carving out the pace in her previous tart. This will mark her first race without blinkers. FIFTH BASE was fourth in a blanket finish in her first Cushion start and her first try against claimers. The negative is that she hasn't worked in a month.
RACE SEVEN
WONDROUS EVENT dominated maidens on turf at Calder in May. She now shows up in the Michael Machowsky barn and looks to have a bright future. WARREN'S ADVENTURE drew away late to defeat $40,000 maidens. Though this will be her first start going long and on grass, her style and pedigree suggest it will be no problem. DEVINE BY DESIGN bombed as the favorite sprinting June 9. She'll be part of the early pace and Talamo sticks with her.
RACE EIGHT
ALBERTUS MAXIMUS ran well against adverse conditions in the Affirmed Handicap June 17. Making his first stakes attempt, 'MAXIMUS tracked slow fractions, dropped back a bit on the turn, then closed sharply to miss by just over a length. With an extra sixteenth of a mile and the presence of SOUVENIR SLEW to put more pressure on DESERT CODE, 'MAXIMUS can turn the tables. DESERT CODE stole the Affirmed under a heady ride by Richard Migliore. Though this distance will be stretching his limits, 'DESERT is ultra game and will not go down without a fight. TIAGO, winner of the Santa Anita Derby and participant in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, is a beatable favorite. The half-brother to Giacomo is void of early speed and is shortening up from a mile and one-half race.
RACE NINE
DOLLAR MOUNTAIN ran much better than the past performances indicate first time out. He angled to the inside entering the stretch, appeared to be full of run, then ran into a roadblock the last sixteenth. 'DOLLAR will be a much more experienced runner this time around. POLONIUS makes his first start following a series of strong drills. Though his trainer (Michael Pender) doesn't start many, his win percentage with newcomers is impressive (20%). DIXIELAND EASY raced evenly in his bow and has the look of a horse who will improve second time out.
Best Bet-GOLDEN VIA (3)
__________________
Belmont
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: My Man Lars (6th race)
First Race
1. Western Sweep 2. Deep Dish Wildcat 3. Wakeup With Makeup
WESTERN SWEEP has been improving little by little all season long; only non-exacta finish at this distance occurred last out when chasing a sizzling pace in overnight stake. DEEP DISH WILDCAT drops from stakes on turf and dirt at Monmouth to begin form cycle; at her best with a clear lead at the pace call, but faces a potential wide trip as HARVEST LISA and WAKEUP WITH MAKEUP also vie for forward position into the turn. Wakeup With Makeup went well in latest at Monmouth vs. Holy Nova, who returned to win a first-level allowance here Wednesday.
Second Race
1. Coastal Flare 2. El Medwar 3. My Michael
COASTAL FLARE is a half-brother to a handful of European turf stakes winners, including War Zone, who won a renewal of the Poker Handicap for these connections; likely to improve off three-way pace battle first out. EL MEDWAR won a pace duel when run down lte by wide-rallying MY MICHAEL in their June 21 matchup; eligible to turn the tables second time on turf. WILD WIZARD is a half-brother to Diadella, a multiple grass stakes winner in Canada; blinkers on after trouble at the start of both dirt tries.
Third Race
1. Officer in Pursuit 2. Debbie Got Even 3. Street Sass
OFFICER IN PURSUIT was a game winner of an overnight stake at Aqueduct back on Mar. 25, just a few days before the cut-off date in today's conditions; good try setting strong pace vs. the up-and-coming Mini Sermon last out. DEBBIE GOT EVEN received a perfect setup when two distance-challenged rivals engaged in a suicidal pace duel going seven furlongs last month; steps up a notch after a solid workout last week. STREET SASS also had a good pace scenario in her recent comeback, when she rallied from far back to win New York-bred stake going away, and has also trained well leading to this.
Fourth Race
1. Posted 2. Charming Billy 3. Deb's Roof
You have to wonder about POSTED, a $350K yearling buy who didn't make it to the races until his 4-year-old season, but he did show some ability on Aqueduct's inner track despite racing greenly through an eventful trip; five workouts at regular intervals the past five weeks are an encouraging sign. CHARMING BILLY closed off a blistering half-mile to miss second by a neck in debut behind a runaway winner; added sixteenth of a mile should help. DEB'S ROOF is turf to dirt, after middle move in lone start this year vs. Pays to Dream, who came back to win two allowance races; haven't the foggiest about specifics of belated rally lone try on fast dirt.
Fifth Race
1. Theatrical Glory 2. Pulpiteer 3. Mighty Gulch
THEATRICAL GLORY decisioned several of these earlier at the meet, the question now is whether he can hold form after three all-out drives in succession - the latter two just days apart; two aluminum pads on hardly inspires confidence, but he's a hard-trying sort that likes this track. PULPITEER a $900K yearling now in for a mere $10K, has settled into a routine of Beyering in the upper 70s all starts at the meet; likeliest alternative if the top one doesn't fire. MIGHTY GULCH and TRIPLETHEPLEASURE were respectable thirds behind the choice on June 23 and June 20, respectively, and project to be chasing early once again.
Sixth Race
1. My Man Lars 2. Speaking Out 3. Sammy's Toy
MY MAN LARS received "outfinished" comments for his last two starts while still earning the two best figures of his career; likely to appreciate the turnback to a mile. SPEAKING OUT has been running the same race on turf virtually every time for over a year now; finally gets a decent post position. SAMMY'S TOY has never taken a backward step in terms of the Beyer figures, capped by an improvement of several lengths first time wearing blinkers; likely to be in closest pursuit to HEIGHTS as he stretches out from six furlongs.
Seventh Race
1. Ambassador 2. Codeword 3. Big Bold Place
AMBASSADOR was unable to finish with the promising Blazingg Dynamo, but continued on well to be a clear second when tried at 1 1/4 miles for the first time; should get an honest pace with OEDIPUS O'NEAL and THREE IN THE BAG in the field. CODEWORD comes off paired Beyers (85s) in his first two turf starts with blinkers on, a pattern that suggests a possible forward move; drops in class after meeting a couple of tigers in the Hill Prince, key is whether he can handle the added real estate. BIG BOLD PLACE failed to fire vs. the top pick last out, following a couple of better performances in shorter races earlier at the meet - one of them in a more advanced allowance condition; dangerous if he rebounds.
Eighth Race
1. Classic Campaign 2. Gimme Credit 3. Art Master
CLASSIC CAMPAIGN has registered triple-digit figures in four of his last five starts, the lone exception from post 10 giving futile chase to loose-on-the-lead JET PROPULSION as the favorite in Calder stake; freshened since being thrust into the role of pacesetter vs. Shakis, who was subsequently beaten a head and nose in the Grade 1 Manhattan. GIMME CREDIT finished explosively to win overnight stake on this course in second start of the year; five straight wins while climbing the ladder in '06 indicate he can hold form off that lifetime top figure. ART MASTER had a useful tightener running a clear second to stakes winner Harlington on the main track first out this year; U.S. debut in Kelso on this course puts him in the hunt in wide-open Poker.
Ninth Race
1. Yankee Thunder 2. Logic Way 3. In the Spotlight
YANKEE THUNDER ran his best race as a first-time starter here last summer, and has compiled a string of promising workouts for excellent layoff trainer; handles some give in the course. LOGIC WAY appears to prefer firm turf, judging from two races on that sort of footing that were far superior to his two races on "good" ground; should have ample conditioning as he shortens up from 1 1/4 miles. IN THE SPOTLIGHT has improved steadily since switched to the grass for his last two starts with blinkers removed; faces a loss of ground into the backstretch after breaking from the far outside.
__________________
Caldar
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
5 WP TOUR, a sharp winner on the dirt vs. 'two-lifetime' claiming competition on May 24, turns back after setting the pace and fading vs. $25K 'three-lifetime' foes in a 2-turn affair on the turf. 3 WESTERN PASTURES will try 'three-lifetime' competition after posting almost identical fourth place finishes vs. $16K conditioned claimers on sealed 'sloppy' tracks. 2 TRIPPENTY, third at this level on May 27, races without blinkers after showing speed and fading vs. better in consecutive sprints.
5-3-2
Race 2 -
12 TOMOCHICHI may finally get to try the turf after hitting the board in pair vs. maiden special weight competition on wet tracks. Trainer Greg Griffith has leading jock Elvis Trujillo handling the surface switch. 2 GONE STRAIGHT, a sharp second on the Gulfstream turf (Apr. 22), renews the rivalry with Tomochichi after proving no match for him on the dirt on May 26. 10 MO'S LAST CALL second on the turf here vs. $32K maidens, returns to the lawn after showing speed and fading vs. $40K types on the main track. 6 CUPAKAUFY, fifth behind Mo's Last Call in his only previous turf race, returns to the grass after hitting the board in 1 of 2 $32K maiden events on wet tracks.
12-2-10-6
Race 3 -
8 TURNPIKE TOMMY is hoping for a clean trip after ducking in at the start, checking on the turn, and still managing to finish third in his career debut at this level and distance. Manoel Cruz rides. 1 I'VE REPENTED is the obvious choice to score when stretching out to 5-furlongs after surrendering a late lead to finish second in his 4 1/2-furlong career debut. 6 INDEPENDENCE WAR is debuting locally in the Bill White barn after finishing a promising fourth on the Arlington Park Polytrack. 9 DR. W is expected to show more after losing his best chance when breaking poorly in his career debut.
8-1-6-9
Race 4 -
4 LAYTON and 3 BARK DUST renew the rivalry at their best distance after dueling from the opening bell and finishing second & third, respectively, in a $12.5K claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs. Note that 10-pound apprentice J Ortiz picks up the mount on the former while 5-pound bug Sally Mitchellhill returns on the latter. 5 SINCERE MAN turns back to three-quarters after making a 4-wide bid and fading to finish fifth behind the top two at 6 1/2 furlongs.
4-3-5
Race 5 - THE DONTHELUMBERTRADER
7 SPARKLING NOTION, sent off at 32-1 last out, gets the tepid call when he cuts back to 7 1/2 furlongs after just getting edged at the wire by 48-1 long shot 3 FEARLESS EAGLE in the mile and a sixteenth $50K Lord Juban. The latter, trained by Ed Plesa Jr., picks up 4 lbs. (122) after getting up in the final strides to win the Lord Juban on a 'good' turf. 5 VILLAINAGE, another from trainer Ed Plesa, who was second to classy Soldier's Dancer in the Appleton Juvenile Turf, returns to the lawn after a powerful 'three-lifetime' allowance score on the main track. 10 LATER GATER, sent off at 3-to-1 in the Lord Juban, is hoping for a clean trip after steadying on the backstretch and getting beat 3 1/4 lengths by the top two.
7-3-5-10
Race 6 -
7 ALWAYS STYLISH makes her first start since fading to finish fourth, as the favorite, in a 'key' maiden race at Tampa that produced 3 next-out winners. 8 WINDY PRINCESS should take the lion's share of the betting action after posting the best last-race figure (49) when finishing third vs. similar in the slop. 2 BO'S DREAM CATCHER is turning back after setting the pace and fading to finish third vs. similar at 5 1/2 furlongs on a sealed 'sloppy' track. 4 RELIC TRILOGY will try five-eighths of a mile after hitting the board in 2 of 3 recent starts vs. similar going longer.
7-8-2-4
Race 7 -
2 DEARDINNER and 3 LITTLE LUCIFER are stretching out to a mile after finishing second & third - separated by a length - at 7 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' turf. 5 UNFAIR, who beat Deardinner by a nose at Gulfstream, makes her first start since finishing a troubled fourth in a 'key' $25K claimer on May 12 that produced next-out winners Jilli's Cape & Big Shadow. 8 RUSHIN' RAHY, competitive on the turf vs. $16K optional claimers in Apr. & May, returns to the grass for the always-dangerous Marty Wolfson barn after a couple of clunkers on the main track.
2-3-5-8
Race 8 -
3 FINAL CALL, a full brother to Desert Vixen runner up Family Favorite, drops with Lasix added after dueling for the lead and apparently bleeding when finishing fourth in his promising maiden special weight debut. 6 CLOSING NUMBER drops $10K after finishing a troubled third (steadied stretch) vs. $50K maidens at 4 1/2 furlongs. 2 BRIAN'S WONDER is stepping up after encountering early trouble (bumped, steadied) when finishing second vs. $32K maidens. 9 SPARKLE CITY, a full brother to Dream Of Angels, who won a pair of stakes at age 2, debuts for trainer Luis Olivares with 4 local workouts showing.
3-6-2-9
Race 9 -
3 LOUIS LE GRANDE drops, and turns back to his best distance (5-2-0-1) after making a middle move and fading when facing $12.5K starter allowance foes at a mile and a sixteenth. 7 ARCHER FLEET is stretching out to seven-eighths after posting competitive figures when finishing second to repeat winner New Kid In Town in a pair of $5K sprints at 6 & 5 1/2 furlongs in the 'slop'. 4 FORTUNATE PRINCE is turning back to 7 furlongs (2-1-0-0) after hitting the board in 2 of 3 recent route races vs. similar competition. 10 L DA VINCI drops after showing speed and tiring vs. better in a pair of local sprints. Carlos Olivero rides for trainer Steve Towne.
3-7-4-10
Race 10 -
9 SILVER ENVOY, who broke inward and stumbled & bumped at the start when finishing third in her first race back from a 9-month plus layoff, hopes to get away trouble free and score at 6 1/2 furlongs. 1 SECRET GIRLFRIEND will depart from the rail after losing all chance when she was jammed back at the start by Silver Envoy last out. 7 PLEASANT HONOREE will face allowance competition after drawing away to defeat next-out winners Marchesa & Eclectic Run in a fruitful $50K maiden test at 6 furlongs. 6 SYNERGY stretches out in her second start back from the layoff after getting bumped hard at the start in the chain reaction started by Silver Envoy.
9-1-7-6
Race 11 -
8 GRANDE has trained sharply in preparation for the first start since his promising debut (May 27) in which he finished fifth behind repeat winner Brother Joey & next-out winner Big City Man. 7 URBANE PROSPECT is stretching out to 6 furlongs after recovering from a poor start to finish second in front of my 3rd race choice Turnpike Tommy. Note: Use the 3rd race as a handicapping guide before you wager on this son of Suave Prospect. 11 TINY MIRACLE is stretching out after closing well to finish third vs. similar at 5 1/2 & 4 1/2 furlongs, respectively. 1O SR. HENRY will be treated with Lasix after rallying to finish second vs. $40K maidens in his 5 1/2-furlong career debut.
8-7-11-10
Race 12 -
2 IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY is back home after an ambitious campaign in which he competed in two of the three legs of the Triple Crown. Trainer Bill Kaplan spots him perfectly vs. 'three-lifetime' allowance competition. 3 HOW SWEET IT IS makes his first start since his 2-race win streak on New York circuit ended when he finished eighth in the 'key' Gotham Stakes (G3) that produced 5 next-out winners - that's right 5 - including repeat winner Cowtown Cat. 6 LEGACY RESERVE is a candidate to rebound after following a good second vs. 'two-other-than' allowance runners on June 3 with a not so good effort at this level and distance on June 25.
2-3-6
Race 13 -
4 LIZA ANN is turning back to a sprint after showing speed and tiring late in a pair of stamina tweaking outings vs. similar when racing around 2-turns. 7 KNOCK ME OUT will try 6 1/2 furlongs after earning a check vs. similar in a pair at 5 1/2 furlongs. 5 SPANGLER'S STORM is stretching out an additional furlong after rallying to finish fourth behind Knock Me Out in their recent clash at 5 1/2 furlongs.
BEST BET: RACE 5 - SPARKLING NOTION
LONG SHOT: RACE 8 - SPARKLE CITY
4-7-5
Milwaukee -1.5 +115
Game: Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs Jul 14 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: The Cubs made short work of the Astros yesterday afternoon behind Zambrano, 6-0. It was the team's 13th win in its last 17 games and with the Brewers' loss at home to the Rockies, the Cubs have closed to with 3 1/2 games of Milwaukee in the NL Central. As for the Astros, there is little postseason 'talk' in that clubhouse. The road loss dropped them to 15-29 (minus-$1,203) away from home this year. Roy Oswalt gets the start but the perennial All Star has struggled on the road as well this year, posting a 5.68 ERA in seven starts (team is 2-5, including losses in his last four!). He's allowed 56 hits in 44.1 innings with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of only 25-20. In four starts vs the Cubs last year, Oswalt got little run support, leaving him with a 1-3 mark despite a respectable 3.33 ERA. Ted Lilly goes for the Cubs. He signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Cubs in December and has pitched well this year, going 8-4 with a 3.67 ERA. He's 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five starts since being ejected in the first inning for beaning Atlanta's Edgar Renteria on June 10, including allowing just two ERs in his last two starts (both wins) before the break (1.26 ERA). Here come the Cubs! Daytime Delight Chi Cubs.
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5*goy White Sox
Any One Have Will Cover
Larry Ness' Spectacular Saturday Total (now 20-4 or 83% winners for the entire season!)
My Spectacular Saturday Total is on Cin/NYM Over at 7:30 ET. Tom Glavine had hoped to reach the 300-win level in the first half but the veteran lefty went just 2-5 (5.37 ERA) over his last nine starts, including a 6.62 ERA over his last six outings. He's 26-12 all-time vs the Reds but just 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA against them in his five starts since 2004. The Reds got eight runs off the Mets last night (seven off John Maine in just 4.2 innings) and with Glavine not exactly "in the zone," expect more runs tonight. As for the Mets, their lineup should welcome the sight of Matt Belisle. He entered 2007 with just seven starts in his 96 career appearances but has been a regular part of the rotation this season with 17 starts. He was sharp early on, going 3-1 in his first five starts (team was 4-1), while allowing just a single ER in each of those three wins. However, over his last 12 starts, he's allowed four ERs or more EIGHT times, posting a 6.08 ERA (team went 2-10). That includes a "finishing run" heading into the break in which the Reds lost his last six starts, as Belisle allowed 27 ERs in 32.1 innings for an ERA of 7.52. Runs-a-plenty in this one. Spectacular Saturday Total on Cin/MYM Over. Larry Ness' 15* MLB Underdog of the Week (now 70-21 with 15* GOW plays TY!)
Spectacular Saturday Total
Cin/MYM Over
Underdog of the Week
15* Sea Mariners
Daytime Delight
Chi Cubs
1000-Padres
500-Detroit
PAID PLAYS
Saturday's Plays:
20 Dime
WHITE SOX (With Vazquez and Cabrera as listed pitchers)
Take the White Sox for the road win tonight over the Orioles.
Javier Vazquez gets the nod for the ChiSox and hes won three straight starts. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.68 ERA in his last four starts. He has walked only three batters while striking out 33 in 32 innings during that span. Vazquez has also had success against the Orioles in his career, going 6-2 with a 5.14 ERA in 10 starts, including a complete game against them in a 5-1 win U.S. Cellular Field on July 3.
Daniel Cabrera will get the nod for the Orioles and hes tied for the AL lead in losses with 10. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox. Cabrera was on the losing end against Vazquez in the White Sox win on July 3.
The White Sox are 11-6 over their last 17 games. They have won seven of nine on the road and eight of 10 at Camden Yards.
Take the White Sox for the road win.
5 Dime
CUBS (With Lilly as listed pitcher)
Take the Cubs for the win over the Astros today at Wrigley.
Ted Lilly is on a roll for the Cubs, having won his last four decisions. The left-hander has allowed two runs in his last two starts and is 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five starts overall.
The Astros will send their ace, Roy Oswalt, to the hill and that helps keep this price low for us. Oswalt is only 10-9 in his career with a 3.77 ERA against the Cubs, and was 1-3 against them in 2006.
Take the Cubs as they grab the home win today.
As (With Blanton and Silva as listed pitchers)
Take the As tonight for the road win over the Twins.
I like the As to bounce back and end their five-game losing streak behind Joe Blanton. The right-hander has been solid this year with an 8-5 record and 3.28 ERA. Hes 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA over his last five starts.
Carlos Silva will start for the Twins and hes tied for the AL lead in losses with 10. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA over his last five starts.
Hes just the kind of pitcher the As need to face right now to end their streak.
Take the As as they grab the much needed win tonight.
TIGERS (With Rogers and Batista as listed pitchers)
Take the Tigers for the road win tonight in Seattle.
Kenny Rogers gets the start and its hard not to back him the way hes pitched since coming off the DL. The gambler is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA in three starts this year.
If history is any indication, this should be a low-scoring game in which the Tigers win.
Thats because Miguel Batista will start for the Mariners, and hes 1-3 in his last five starts despite a 2.51 ERA. Seattle has scored just 10 runs for Batista in that span.
Take the Tigers as Rogers shuts down the Ms and pitches them to the road win.<!-- / message -->
mlb. kansas city @ cleveland under 9 runs (500*)
mlb. dodgers-125 (30*)
mlb. baltimore-110 (20*)
mlb. atlanta-135 (20*)
mlb. oakland+105 (10*)
mlb. houston+115 (10*) free play
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