Most books opened this year’s championship game with Oregon favored by 7 or 7.5 over Ohio State, owing to the Ducks’ destruction of No. 3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl. The 59-20 final score was mostly a product of the Seminoles’ five turnovers, but the Oregon offense proved once again that, given the opportunity, it has the ability to score at will.
Plus, there’s always public perception to counter if you’re a bookmaker. In general, fans love teams that play fast and can score points in bunches. (If you’ve been paying attention to college football over the past decade or so, that pretty much perfectly describes Oregon.)
“I made the number 6.5 myself and we were all right around 6.5, 7, 7.5,” said Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook assistant manager. “So we said, ‘Let’s start it at 7 and see if the public decides it should move up or down.’
“Initially, we saw a lot more Oregon support than Ohio State support. At first it looked like the number was going to start upward before it swung downward.”
As seen by Sherman and his colleagues, recent Ohio State money has been driving down the line all week. Is there still value to be found in those recent moves? We’ll get to that in a minute. First: the current lines.
At our live odds page, Oregon is down to a 6- or 6.5-point favorite at almost every major book both offshore and in Vegas. That number had dropped to as low as 5 earlier in the week before creeping back up.
At William Hill U.S., despite having written 80 percent of its tickets on Oregon, the line had moved down from Oregon -7 to Oregon -6.5 as of Jan. 8.
So how do the oddsmakers feel about all this Ohio State action coming in? At least one of them isn’t concerned.
“Oregon has a much higher power ranking [than Ohio State] and has been destroying pretty much everyone they’ve played in a difficult Pac-12 conference,” said Jay Kornegay, SuperBook VP. “Oregon, it just seems like they’re relentless. I’d be very surprised if Ohio State can keep up with them.”
So, can Oregon backers who agree with Kornegay afford to keep waiting and see if the line continues to drop? It seems like it would take a serious amount of Oregon money to move the line back to a touchdown by Monday’s kickoff, although David Purdum tweeted on Sunday night that’s where it might be headed.
Regardless, if you like Oregon, you’re currently getting a better number than you would’ve at the open, and it’s probably more likely that it goes back up (or stays put) than reaches all the way down to a “key” number like -4.
Ohio State: Potential Book-Breaker?
With the advent of the College Football Playoff this season, there was a better chance of a long shot team potentially giving the books a heart attack by making a run to the championship game. A team like Ole Miss, maybe. Or Arizona. Or … Ohio State?
The SuperBook is facing some liability on Ohio State futures plays—some with odds as high as +5000—that will be decided in the championship game. Kornegay said the exposure associated with the Buckeyes winning the title isn’t excessive, but it’s certainly there.
“The Alabama scenario [beating Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl] was our best-case,” Kornegay said. “We were hoping Alabama would win but not cover, just so they would advance to the championship game. Then our futures board would’ve been looking pretty good.
“When Ohio State lost early, they jumped up to 50-to-1 and we took some bets on them and continued to take bets on them up until the final week, even when it looked like they weren’t going to get into the Playoff picture.”
A blue-blood program like Ohio State being the SuperBook’s biggest liability on the eve of the championship game? Probably not what the bookmakers had in mind back in September.