Tag: Sports betting

Betting Roundup /

Kansas and Michigan State emerging at top of polls and as favorites in betting markets

With March Madness settling in as smaller conference tournaments tip off this week, the poll voters and betting markets are aligning on the favorites.

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Kansas and Michigan State ascended to the top spots in Monday’s AP Top 25 and are among the favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and at BetOnline.

The Spartans, who began the season at 40/1, are now the 5/1 favorite at Westgate, followed by the Jayhawks (7/1) and North Carolina (7/1).

Kansas is receiving the most wagers at BetOnline, moving the Jayhawks from 7/1 to 6/1 between Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, North Carolina (8/1) and Michigan State (7/1) are the second- and third-most popular teams with bettors at the offshore book.

The overarching narrative of the season has been how wide open the race for the championship is expected to be. Six different teams have held the top spot in the AP poll, none for more than Michigan State’s four-week run during a 13-0 start to the season.

William Hill US sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said last week he sees 16 teams as potential title contenders.

AROUND THE WEB

  • Nevada and DFS appear to be flirting with some form of reconciliation. Governor Brian Sandoval has called for the state’s Gaming Policy Committee to re-examine the issue, and FanDuel and DraftKings CEOs will be speaking at a panel meeting Monday.
  • Despite Steph Curry’s absence, Golden State remains unbeaten at home. Already at -300 to reach 73 wins, going into the last night’s game, don’t be surprised if the odds get shorter today.
  • A state lawmaker in Pennsylvania is facing corruption charges related to an illegal gambling ring.
  • A local politician in Indiana nabbed as part of a bookie bust that was the culmination of a three-year investigation.
  • The most wagered-on race of the NASCAR season is this weekend in Las Vegas.

TWEETS OF NOTE

 

ODDS & ENDS

Betting roundup /

Betting roundup: $5 nets William Hill bettor $305,375 jackpot on 15-game parlay

Top-ranked Kansas’ win over Texas earned the Jayhawks a Big 12 championship on Monday night and earned one bettor the biggest progressive jackpot in William Hill Nevada history.

The $5 entry, which was purchased at the Tuscany Casino in Las Vegas on Saturday morning, brought $305,375 as the bettor correctly picked the straight-up winners in 15 games over the weekend. It was the only winner among more than 10,000 entries over the weekend.

Here are the winning selections:

  • Golden State Warriors over Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Detroit Pistons over Toronto Raptors
  • Kansas over Texas
  • Texas over Oklahoma
  •  Utah over Arizona
  • Mississippi State over South Carolina
  • Vanderbilt over Kentucky
  • Purdue over Maryland
  • Stanford over UCLA
  • Middle Tennessee State over Marshall
  • Arkansas over Tennessee
  • Gonzaga over BYU
  • Ohio State over Iowa
  • Wisconsin over Michigan
  • California over USC

The jackpot had been building since a bettor won $100,000 in December (reportedly on her second lifetime bet), and was by far the largest in contest history. It surpassed previous records in late January when it hit $180,000 after a bettor missed on the 15th game that would’ve won $163,000.

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“You guys know I like to bet on sports, but I’m looking forward to stepping back from betting in sports now. I’m looking forward to probably getting into ownership of an NBA team.” —Floyd Mayweather at a press conference for an upcoming fight between Ashley Theophane and Adrien Broner.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

Betting roundup /

Betting roundup: Latest Golden State victory shifts odds on 73 wins significantly

The Golden State Warriors are pulling away from the field in the eyes of the betting markets. Already well on pace for the best record in NBA history, their latest theatrics—a 121-118 overtime win at Oklahoma City on Saturday night—has improved their odds for a repeat championship.

Reigning MVP Steph Curry led the win over the Thunder with 46 points and 12 3-pointers, including the game-winner from about 30 feet out. As the most-watched non-Christmas regular season game in three years, it set off a storm on social media, and it didn’t take long for sports books to reflect the after effects.

The Warriors have been the favorites or co-favorites to win the 2016 title since mid-November, but the odds have shortened significantly over the last month. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Golden State was listed at 3/2 favorites following a mid-January mini-slump in which they lost twice in a week.

Those losses, coupled with a back-loaded schedule prompted Westgate to take down the 73-win prop, fearful of a beating on “No” bets, and declare the Warriors had “no chance” of surpassing the 1995-96 Bulls record for wins in a season.

Immediately after, Golden State went on a a tear. They’ve won 16 of 17 since then, defeating Eastern Conference favorite Cleveland by 34 points, and San Antonio—which holds the league’s second-best record—by 30, as part of an 11-game winning streak.  In the midst of their current run, the 73-win prop went back up.

Last week, the odds on “Yes” moved from -110 to -125 to -150 with wins over the Hawks, Heat and Magic, and SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman said Westgate was taking “a ton of action” on the prop, mostly in support of the Warriors, who are now at 53-5 with 24 games remaining.

Fourteen of those games will come against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, including three more against the Spurs.

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“No. No. Not even close. Not even an input, a thought or a consideration. None. None whatsoever. I want to be real clear on that.” —Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on whether sports gambling allegations had anything to do with the team’s decision to release Joseph Randle in November.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • ESPN’s David Purdum reported on his Facebook page that no deal is imminent to bail out troubled DFS site FantasyHub, but “serious serious discussions are taking place to complete a deal with the goal of squaring everyone—players, charities and affiliates—up.”
  • No more real-money season-long fantasy leagues from ESPN.
  • A look at the effect of March Madness on gaming’s bottom line.
  • Police investigating allegations of inappropriate betting on Australian basketball games.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“I think there are 16 teams that could win it all and another 18 that could get to the Final Four.”—William Hill US sports book director Nick Bogdanovich on what’s expected to be a wide-open field in this year’s NCAA tournament.

Betting Roundup /

MLB player props: Giancarlo Stanton’s home run total already nudged up at Westgate

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung its MLB player props on Sunday, and an unexpected bet on the over from a respected bettor quickly prompted the book to adjust its number on predicted home run king Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton, who hit 27 home runs in 74 games last year before a hand injury ended his season, is the consensus favorite to lead the majors in homers. The Miami slugger is listed at 7/1 at both BetOnline and 5Dimes, with no other player better than 12/1.

At Westgate, Stanton and Chris Davis both opened at 36.5, but Stanton’s over/under is now 37.

“One of the guys we respect bet the over on him, which for the most part you wouldn’t expect over bets from wise guys on stuff like that, so now we’re at 37 on him,” said Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the SuperBook.

If Stanton tops that number it would be a career high. Injuries have hampered the Miami slugger throughout his career, preventing bigger stats. He hit 37 home runs in just 123 games in 2012 and had 37 again in 2014 before getting shelved in September after getting hit in the face with a pitch. In between, he played only 116 games and had 24 homers in 2013.

“He’s always one of the toughest guys to pin down,” Salmons said. “Miami’s moving the fences in some this year, and that can only help. Not that it matters a ton for him, because when he hits his home runs, they’re usually way over the fence. It’s always, can he stay healthy?”

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AROUND THE WEB

  • The Golden State Warriors are now favored to break the Bulls record for wins in a season, and with every win, the odds tilt more in their favor.
  • A deeper look at the recently passed law in Pennsylvania that calls for the state’s gaming commission to produce a report evaluating the potential of DFS as a gambling product.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“In addition to the quarterback thing, it’s a public perception thing, as well, coming into these touristy times with the (NCAA) tournament about to start. A team like the Broncos, people tend to want to bet the over because they just won the Super Bowl, but when you’re making your numbers you’re getting nines and nine-and-a-halfs.”—CG Technology’s Jason Simbal on the difficulty of hanging a season win total on Denver for 2016. The Broncos opened at 9.5.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

MLB /

MLB season totals popularity has SuperBook ‘on the verge’ of raising betting limits

Betting on MLB season win totals has grown so popular, the largest sports book in Las Vegas is strongly considering raising the limit on maximum bets.

“It’s taken on a life of its own,” said Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “In baseball, as far as wins and player props and division bets, it’s really gotten popular. In the NFL we’re taking bigger limits than the baseball stuff, but the baseball stuff is on the verge of having bigger limits because we’re writing so much public money right now.”

The SuperBook, which hung its MLB season win totals, division odds and individual player props on Sunday, currently limits baseball bets to $1,000, with an extension granted to house players, Salmons said. But the booming popularity of these bets—and where they’re coming from—has Westgate considering a change.

“There was a time where maybe our money would be 75 percent wise guys versus 25 percent general public,” Salmons said.

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Now, that ratio is reversed.

“The handle is through the roof as far as season wins,” Salmons said. “The baseball season wins are just really popular with the general public. And anything you can do with more general public,
it’s better for the house.”

Bettors at the Westgate are coming out strong in support of Kansas City, the defending World Series champs. Despite coming off back-to-back appearances in the Fall Classic, many projections systems—and oddsmakers—are cool on the Royals this year. Atlantis hung the Royals at 87 wins, the Golden Nugget at 84, and Westgate opened them at 83.5, prompting a flurry of action.

“Right now, they love the Royals,” Salmon said.

Betting has been significantly slower on the Cubs, who attracted more two-way action than any other team at Westgate last season, when they were pegged for about 83 wins in the preseason. Following a trip to the NLCS, their number is at 93.5 right now, and Salmons said betting on the team has been minimal on either side.

AROUND THE WEB

DFS LEGISLATION

  • A look at the Virginia bill headed for the governor’s desk; it would be the country’s first DFS regulatory bill signed into law.
  • Regulatory bill passes out of Senate committee in Tennessee.
  • FanDuel and DraftKings are expected to show support for a bill in Illinois at the state Capitol today.
  • Bill in Indiana gets tweaked before passing House committee. Changes include levying a $75,000 licensing fee and $20,000 annual regulatory fee.
  • The New York Assembly looks like it could be moving forward with a bill soon, and it includes hefty fees and taxes for operators.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“They basically allow you to do it, the cops. But you can get locked up and put under investigation for having too many books of stamps or getting found in possession of tickets or anything like a master sheet to record bets, which they consider gambling paraphernalia.”—a 31-year-old ex-convict who goes by the pseudonym “Zach” in this look into what it’s like to run a sports book in prison.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

NBA /

Uneventful trade deadline yields minimal movement in NBA betting markets

The NBA betting market status quo remains unchanged after one of the quietest trading deadlines in recent memory.

The NBA’s major contenders mostly laid low last week, seemingly content with their current roster construction or unwilling to pay up for a three-month rental to chase a title that some say only a handful of teams have a chance of winning this season.

Cleveland picked up a potentially useful Channing Frye, and Tobias Harris could help Detroit down the road, but these aren’t the types of moves many were expecting nor the type that excite bettors.

“I don’t remember one that was this quiet,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “I’ve never seen it at this point in the season be such a foregone conclusion.

“The largest trade out there was Jeff Green going to the Clippers, which didn’t affect any odds. There was no shift in any odds based on what happened with any trades out there.”

Golden State, which became the fastest team to 50 wins in NBA history on Monday night, remains the odds-on favorite at 4/5, followed by Cleveland at 5/2, San Antonio at 4/1 and Oklahoma City at 14/1.

Nobody else stands much of a chance, Sherman says, which could be part of the reason teams chose to stand pat at the deadline. The Celtics, currently fighting for third in the East and listed at 40/1 to win the title, make a nice example.

“They could easily, with everything going on in the East, be the second-best team there,” Sherman said. “So in their minds, maybe they’re thinking they’re not that far away, and I’d heard they were thinking about making some big moves. But at the same time, they have all these assets going forward (including a lottery pick from the Nets), and it wouldn’t have made sense to get somebody that’s a rental with the team that they have, the coach that they have and everything they have going forward.”

There’s also a looming increase in the salary cap playing a role in teams’ decision-making, but the juggernaut that is Golden State is the league’s 800-pound gorilla for 2015-16.

The Warriors continue to exceed expectations, and following an update Tuesday, they’re getting even odds at Westgate in their chase to break the 1996 Bulls record of 72 regular-season wins.

“Basically, it moves a little with their wins and it moves a lot anytime they get a loss, obviously because of how magnified that is in relation to what they’re doing,” Sherman said. “Right around this pick ‘em price, we’re getting a ton of action on it.”

Betting is slower in the East, where Cleveland is a 1/6 favorite.

“We’ve gotten money on Toronto (8/1), we’ve gotten some money on Boston (17/1), but that’s about it,” Sherman said. “There’s some on the Bulls (20/1), but the Bulls look like they’re headed for a lost season. If things fell just right, maybe Toronto or Boston could do something, I just don’t see it.”

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“Since I had everything unplugged, I had no idea I was winning,” Matt Allen, the 27-year-old who quit his job in investment banking to play DFS full time. He won $110,000 in two DraftKings contests over the weekend.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • Odds on the NFL combine are going up at online books. BetOnline has +350 on somebody breaking Chris Johnson’s 4.24 time in the 40 yard dash.
  • Former NFL player reveals some of the truly bizarre questions he was asked at the combine.
  • DFS & Taxes: File as a professional or an amateur?
  • The Orioles, pegged for 78.5 wins by Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, added a leadoff hitter Tuesday, signing Dexter Fowler to a three-year deal.
  • Hilton Hotels apologized to Kyrie Irving after his bout with bed bugs during a recent stay.
Betting Roundup /

Report recalibrates projections, finds uncertain future for daily fantasy sports

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming published new projections for the daily fantasy industry in its 2016 report, and not surprisingly, the picture isn’t quite as rosy as it once was.

The full report is available only to subscribers, but in a truncated version, the report said “it is easy to imagine a number of wildly divergent trajectories for DFS based on political, legal, economic, business model, consumer, and market pressures.”

LegalSportsReport has more info on the full report, including a breakdown of the possible scenarios for the next four years. Most notable: while last year’s report predicted $18 million in entry fees by 2020, the new best-case scenario is around $14 million with the base case sum forecast at around $8 million.

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Citing analyst Adam Krejcik, VentureBeat says DraftKings and FanDuel have now lost their unicorn status, as their value has likely dropped below $1 billion.

2016 could be the industry’s make-or-break year.

“The DFS industry is at a crossroads,” Krejcik wrote. “This year will undoubtedly mark a year of change and transformation. We are witnessing a monumental shift from the status quo, at least from a legal standpoint, which will impact the underlying market dynamics and competitive landscape.”

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“In 2013, the (Division of Gaming Enforcement) already authorized our casinos to engage in fantasy sports play. We have regulations on the daily fantasy sports side and have authorized our casinos to engage in that action. They have not chosen to do so. I don’t know why. —Dave Rebuck, director of New Jersey DGE, in a wide-ranging interview with Gambling Insider.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • SportsBookReview published its top five online books, as voted on by vistors to its forum.
  • Delonte West spotted loitering outside a Houston Jack-in-the-Box, reportedly shoeless.
  • Kyrie Irving alleges bedbugs, forgoes possibility of Hilton endorsement.
  • The 76ers were the big losers in that nixed three-way trade involving the Rockets and Pistons.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“Every year, there are always a lot of tickets. Now that they’re good, you can basically double that. You get the people that are betting them just because they’re the Cubs and the people who are betting them because they actually think they’re going to win. That’s increased the ticket amount.” —MGM assistant manager Jeff Stoneback on the betting action that has pushed the Cubs as low as 4/1 odds to win the World Series at some books.

Betting Roundup /

Late support of Hamlin proves justified in closest finish in Daytona 500 history

Denny Hamlin pushed ahead of the field on the final lap and edged Martin Truex Jr. by about a half a foot at the finish line to take his first Daytona 500 win Sunday in the closest finish in race history.

Hamlin, who was getting 10/1 (or longer) odds at most sports books by the weekend, had been at 14/1 early last week before bets started piling up on the 34-year-old who was a popular pick among analysts.

Writing for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Micah Roberts pegged the Joe Gibbs Toyota team for a big day and singled out Hamlin among them as having the best chance to win.

It was a tough day for crowd and betting favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr., who crashed on lap 170. William Hill US reported that 14 percent of money wagered was coming in on the 9/2 favorite last week, and by race time, he had moved from 6/1 to 4/1 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Similarly Chase Elliott, the rookie polesitter and a public favorite among the long shots, saw his day end early when he crashed on lap 20.

AROUND THE WEB

  • Bettors took a hit when Kimbo Slice defeated Dhafir (Dada 5000) Harris in Friday night’s Bellator 149 MMA fight. Action was so heavy on the underdog Harris that multiple books took the fight down last week, but Slice won via third-round “knockout.” Harris was reportedly in pretty bad shape after the fight, but his family said Saturday he was resting in stable condition.
  • A thought-provoking piece here notes that with an aggressive interpretation all these DFS bills making their way through various state legislatures at the moment could be opening the door to all sorts of legalized prop betting.
  • The legal issues are mounting for Joseph Randle, the troubled former running back for the Dallas Cowboys. He’s been arrested for the fifth time in 17 months, this time charged with battery (among other charges) after allegedly striking three people with his vehicle.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“I don’t know what is happening on FantasyHub’s side but at least one third party has been working with them on a deal all weekend. There’s definitely potential. I’ve been in regular communication with the third party and I’m trying to get more insight from Hub.”—RotoGrinders founder Cal Spears, providing an update of sorts on FantasyHub. The DFS operator “temporarily suspended operations” on Friday with players reportedly unable to access their funds.

ODDS & ENDS

  • Bookmakers in Britain bringing in profits with fixed-odd betting machines that allow users to play various roulette and slots-style games.
Betting Roundup /

Another daily fantasy sports site stalling on payments, promises answers by today

For the second time in 2016, a daily fantasy sports site has players on hold, as FantasyHub is reportedly stalling on requested payouts.

[UPDATE: FantasyHub announced Friday it was ‘temporarily suspending site operations’]

Last month, FantasyUp went under, shuttering operations with a notice that it did not have the money to refund player balances. Soon after, they were bailed out by the iTEAM network, which manages a cadre of sites with pooled liquidity, and players were eventually paid out.

FantasyHub is believed to have a substantially larger player base, and unlike FantasyUp, it is a member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association.

Details on the situation at FantasyHub are scant at the moment. Players began reporting payout delays and unanswered customer service inquiries earlier this week on the RotoGrinders forum. In the last two days, a site representative—presumably Steven Plappert, the company’s co-founder and CFO—has posted two messages, neither offering much information.

Hi guys,

We really appreciate the concerns that you are bringing up and apologize for the radio silence.

I can assure you we will be issuing a formal response very soon and ask if everyone could hold their concerns until this Friday for more information.

Best,
Steven

Hi guys,

Just wanted to reach out again to let you know we are watching things closely here and appreciate all the concerns regarding recent events.

I can assure you, we are working very hard over here 24/7 and will be able to provide clarity soon.

I am sorry this has caused dissent but I encourage everyone to remain calm for just a little while longer.

All the best,
Steven

Real-money operators are required by the FSTA to segregate player deposits and winnings from operational funds, but the organization has no oversight powers or true enforcement mechanism.

FantasyHub launched in December 2014 and is based in Austin, Texas. Its point of differentiation in the industry has been its charity focus, but that has now also been called in to question, with some users reporting that charities appearing on FantasyHub’s page have no relationship with the company.

FantasyHub has yet to comment directly on the matter; as of Friday morning it claims to have donated more than $200,000 to various charities.

AROUND THE WEB

DFS LEGAL BEAT

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“I did think it was funny, but I kind of hid behind the sofa when I watched it. It was quite painful to watch.”—FanDuel CEO Nigel Eccles on John Oliver’s 20-minute rant on DFS.

ODDS & ENDS

Betting roundup /

Sports betting backers not feeling as confident after Wednesday’s appeals court hearing

New Jersey made what could be a last-ditch effort to get sports betting legalized in the state on Wednesday, arguing its case in front of a 12-judge panel in the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia.

Hopes were high heading into the hearing, but notably less so after judges spent the better part of the hour-plus grilling the state’s attorneys.

At issue is whether New Jersey’s Sports Wagering Law violates the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992, a federal law that prohibits state-sponsored betting. PASPA, as it’s commonly known, is supported by the NCAA and the four major North American professional sports leagues.

The two sides have been engaged in an ongoing legal battle since New Jersey governor Chris Christie first signed a sports betting bill into law in 2012. PASPA backers have won each court decision thus far, but legal experts believed New Jersey had its best shot when Wednesday’s en banc hearing request was granted in October.

The state may still get its way—a decision in the case isn’t expected for at least a couple of months—but the tone and content of the judges’ questioning fanned the flames of optimism.

A quick rundown of Wednesday’s news coverage:

  • New Jersey state senator and sports betting supporter Raymond Lesniak told NJBiz.com, “I think it’s going to be a squeaker.” Contrast that with his pre-hearing sentiment via ESPN, “I expect to win.”
  • Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach told NJ.com, “You could just see it on the faces of some of the judges. They were not buying what the state was selling.”
  • Sports Illustrated has a thorough and relatively easy-to-digest breakdown of the key legal arguments involved on either side.

AROUND THE WEB

  • The guy who created NYPD Blue and Deadwood lost his life savings—perhaps north of $100 million—betting on horses.
  • Why does everybody hate DFS? This article gets to the root of it.
  • What I learned losing $8,250 playing DFS in the fall of 2015. An even-handed first-person narrative in a sea of sensationalism.
  • DraftKings tightens purse strings, significantly alters affiliate policy.
  • Canada is reconsidering single-game sports betting legislation.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“I think we took advantage of an opportunity that was in front of us and really took DraftKings to the next level. And it created some noise, not surprisingly.”—DraftKings Chief Marketing Officer Janet Holian, continuing to insist that all those ads were a good idea.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • A company with ties to the largest cheating scandal in the history of online poker has been conditionally recommended for a Nevada gaming license.  
  • Bill Simmons’ new site has a name and some new employees.
  • Another daily fantasy site, this one an FSTA member, is apparently having payment processing issues. Stay tuned.