The theme of upsets that ran through conference tournament week extended to the selection committee as the field for the NCAA tournament was announced Sunday with more than a few puzzlers.
Snubs are as much a part of the annual ritual of March Madness as first-round upsets and buzzer beaters, but this year’s bracket seems especially out-of-sync with public perception—and betting market values.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi correctly predicted 65 of the 68 teams—his lowest total since 2011—but didn’t hold back in a column headlined “The selection committee got so much wrong–and here is how.”
… the committee’s performance is slipping, year over year, and it’s also my job to point that out when necessary. Put aside my three misses for a moment — Vanderbilt (perfectly reasonable selection), Syracuse (borderline at best) and Tulsa (indefensible by every known standard) — and what you have is a selection and bracketing process that appears to have gone off the rails.
Bookmakers were also bewildered by some of the committee’s decisions. In addition to Tulsa getting in, Oregon getting a No. 1 seed over Michigan State was especially egregious in the eyes of many, including Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts.
Rood, to the Las Vegas Sun:
Michigan State not getting a No. 1 seed was screwy. They’ve been the clear-cut favorite for us the last few weeks, so I think they really missed the mark on that. … (No. 4 seed) Kentucky has a more solid power rating than Oregon. Oregon is just living off of recency. If you would have told me a week ago that Oregon was going to be a No. 1 seed, there’s no way I would have believed you.
Prior to the bracket announcement, the Ducks were listed at 30/1 odds to win the tournament, while the Spartans were one of the favorites at 5/1.
Maybe the only thing garnering more dismal reviews than the selection committee is CBS’s selection show. Freshly bloated to a two-hour runtime, it was a near unanimous flop, from Charles Barkley fumbling with touchscreens, to the actual bracket getting leaked on Twitter prior to the network unveiling.
Thankfully for all involved, basketball gets started with a First Four doubleheader Tuesday night. As of Monday morning, Florida Gulf Coast is a consensus six-point favorite over Fairleigh Dickinson, while Wichita State is giving three points to Vanderbilt.
NCAA Tournament futures odds
| Westgate | William Hill | 5Dimes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 9/2 | 9/2 | +515 |
| Michigan State | 5/1 | 9/2 | +815 |
| North Carolina | 5/1 | 4/1 | +635 |
| Virginia | 12/1 | 15/1 | +900 |
| Villanova | 12/1 | 18/1 | +1300 |
| Kentucky | 15/1 | 10/1 | +1350 |
| Oregon | 15/1 | 12/1 | +2200 |
| Oklahoma | 20/1 | 18/1 | +1200 |
| Xavier | 25/1 | 30/1 | +3000 |
| West Virginia | 25/1 | 25/1 | +1800 |
| Duke | 25/1 | 28/1 | +2500 |
| Miami | 30/1 | 40/1 | +5000 |
| Texas A&M | 30/1 | 30/1 | +3000 |
| Indiana | 30/1 | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Purdue | 30/1 | 50/1 | +3300 |
| Maryland | 30/1 | 30/1 | +3500 |
| Utah | 40/1 | 40 | +6600 |
| California | 40/1 | 50/1 | +6000 |
| Arizona | 40/1 | 35/1 | +4500 |
| Iowa State | 60/1 | 60/1 | +5500 |
| Baylor | 60/1 | 50/1 | +8000 |
| Texas | 80/1 | 75/1 | +5500 |
| Notre Dame | 80/1 | 75/1 | +11000 |
| Seton Hall | 80/1 | 50/1 | +15000 |
| Gonzaga | 80/1 | 100/1 | |
| Wisconsin | 100/1 | 100/1 | +10000 |
| Dayton | 100/1 | 200/1 | +20000 |
| Iowa | 80/1 | 150/1 | +8000 |
| Uconn | 100/1 | 50/1 | |
| Vanderbilt | 100/1 | 200/1 | |
| Wichita State | 80/1 | 100/1 | |
| Oregon State | 80/1 | 300/1 | +35000 |
| St. Joseph's | 200/1 | 125/1 | |
| Providence | 200/1 | 75/1 | |
| Butler | 200/1 | 200/1 | |
| Cincinnati | 200/1 | 125/1 | |
| VCU | 200/1 | 200/1 | |
| Michigan | 200/1 | 300/1 | |
| Texas Tech | 200/1 | 300/1 | |
| Colorado | 200/1 | 200/1 | |
| Pitt | 300/1 | 200/1 | |
| Syracuse | 300/1 | 200/1 | |
| Temple | 300/1 | 250/1 | |
| Tulsa | 300/1 | 300/1 | |
| Northern Iowa | 500/1 | 250/1 | |
| Chattanooga | 500/1 | 600/1 | |
| Arkansas-Little Rock | 500/1 | 600/1 | |
| Hawaii | 1000/1 | 400/1 | |
| Buffalo | 1000/1 | 400/1 | |
| Fresno State | 1000/1 | 400/1 | |
| S.F. Austin | 1000/1 | 250/1 | |
| Middle Tenn. State | 1000/1 | 1000/1 | |
| Yale | 1000/1 | 600/1 | |
| South Dakota State | 1000/1 | 1000/1 | |
| NC Wilmington | 2000/1 | 600/1 | |
| Stony Brook | 2000/1 | 1000/1 | |
| Iona | 2000/1 | 400/1 | |
| Wisc-Green Bay | 2000/1 | 750/1 | |
| Cal St. Bakersfield | 2000/1 | 2500/1 | |
| UNC-Asheville | 2000/1 | 1000/1 | |
| Weber State | 5000/1 | 600/1 | |
| Austin Peay | 9999/1 | 2500/1 | |
| Hampton | 9999/1 | 5000/1 | |
| Fla. Gulf Coast | 9999/1 | 5000/1 | |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 9999/1 | 5000/1 | |
| Southern | 9999/1 | 5000/1 | |
| Holy Cross | 9999/1 | 5000/1 |
AROUND THE WEB
- From setting the initial lines to dealing with increased beer consumption, how Vegas handles the betting madness of March.
- NBA commish Adam Silver went in depth on DFS at South by Southwest.
- Station Casinos revamping five sports books.
- Changing attitudes could lead NCAA to lift ban on championship events in Las Vegas.
LOOK WHO’S TALKING
“We go to great lengths to prevent the tournament field from being revealed early and the NCAA took its usual measures to prevent this from happening. Unfortunately, and regrettably, the bracket was revealed prior to our broadcast partners having the opportunity to finish unveiling it. We take this matter seriously and we are looking into it.”—NCAA statement after the official brackets were leaked early on Twitter on Sunday.
TWEETS OF NOTE
The NCAA bracket leaking on Twitter is a nice way of telling TV that making the Selection Show longer this year was a terrible idea.
— Grant Wahl (@GrantWahl) March 13, 2016
The Bracket Matrix features an index of 59 Bracketologists. ZERO of them picked Tulsa. https://t.co/I7cKgEATbp pic.twitter.com/296R96I6qK — Rodger Sherman (@rodger_sherman) March 13, 2016
We are proud to announce the @LVSuperBook is smoke-free. Smoking is prohibited from bar to betting counters including all seating areas. — Jay Kornegay (@JayKornegay) March 11, 2016
ODDS & ENDS
- Steelers WR Martavis Bryant is facing a year suspension from the NFL for failing a drug test.
- QB prospect Dak Prescott arrested for DUI.
- MLB win totals from a variety of online books.
- Yankee Stadium’s new ticket policy didn’t go over so well at yesterday’s MLS match.
ODDSMAKER’S TAKE
“It’s almost like they had the seeds backwards here. The ceiling for Gonzaga is much higher. That’s one of the teams that’s a double-digit seed, though they shouldn’t be, that could go far in the tournament.”—Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts, on one of many gripes with this year’s NCAA tournament bracket.