In case all you want for Christmas is simply everything you need to know to successfully bet the most wonderful time of the year in one super-long post …
Strength-of-schedule mismatches
(According to Sagarin Ratings)
Colorado State (106) vs. Washington State (1)
Rice (104) vs. Mississippi State (8)
Michigan State (56) vs. Stanford (4)
Texas Tech (55) vs. Arizona State (2)
Cincinnati (119) vs. North Carolina (50)
Nebraska (60) vs. Georgia (9)
Miami, Fla. (58) vs. Louisville (109)
Rutgers (79) vs. Notre Dame (17)
Marshall (126) vs. Maryland (69)
Bowling Green (124) vs. Pittsburgh (32)
Boise State (94) vs. Oregon State (12)
Buffalo (128) vs. San Diego State (78)
Fresno State (110) vs. Southern Cal (13)
Auburn (20) vs. Florida State (63)
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Bowl Records Against the Spread
| Coach | ATS W | ATS Loss | Push | Current school (*interim) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Scheier | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bowling Green* |
| Al Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | Miami, Fla. |
| Art Briles | 3 | 5 | 0 | Baylor |
| Bill Snyder | 4 | 10 | 0 | Kansas State |
| Bo Pelini | 4 | 4 | 0 | Nebraska |
| Bob Stoops | 5 | 9 | 0 | Oklahoma |
| Bobby Hauck | 0 | 0 | 0 | UNLV |
| Bob Gregory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Boise State" |
| Brady Hoke | 1 | 1 | 1 | Michigam |
| Brian Kelly | 1 | 5 | 0 | Notre Dame |
| Bronco Mendenhall | 6 | 2 | 0 | BYU |
| Charlie Strong | 2 | 2 | 0 | Louisville |
| Clay Helton | 0 | 0 | 0 | Southern Cal* |
| Curtis Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tulane |
| Dabo Swinney | 2 | 3 | 0 | Clemson |
| Dan McCarney | 2 | 3 | 0 | North Texas |
| Dan Mullen | 1 | 2 | 0 | Mississippi State |
| David Bailiff | 2 | 0 | 0 | Rice |
| David Cutcliffe | 4 | 2 | 0 | Duke |
| David Shaw | 2 | 0 | 0 | Stanford |
| Doc Holliday | 1 | 0 | 0 | Marshall |
| Frank Beamer | 9 | 10 | 0 | Virginia Tech |
| Frank Solich | 4 | 6 | 0 | Ohio |
| Gary Andersen | 1 | 1 | 0 | Wisconsin |
| Gary Pinkel | 4 | 4 | 0 | Missouri |
| George O'Leary | 5 | 4 | 0 | Central Florida |
| Gus Malzahn | 0 | 0 | 0 | Auburn |
| Hugh Freeze | 1 | 0 | 0 | Ole Miss |
| James Franklin | 1 | 1 | 0 | Vanderbilt |
| Jeff Quinn | 1 | 1 | 0 | Buffalo |
| Jerry Kill | 0 | 2 | 0 | Minnesota |
| Jim McElwain | 0 | 0 | 0 | Colorado State |
| Jim Mora | 0 | 1 | 0 | UCLA |
| Jimbo Fisher | 3 | 0 | 0 | Florida State |
| John Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0 | Arkansas State* |
| Ken Niumatalolo | 2 | 3 | 0 | Navy |
| Kevin Sumlin | 2 | 1 | 0 | Texas A&M |
| Kirk Ferentz | 7 | 3 | 0 | Iowa |
| Kliff Kingsbury | 0 | 0 | 0 | Texas Tech |
| Kyle Flood | 0 | 1 | 0 | Rutgers |
| Larry Fedora | 1 | 3 | 0 | North Carolina |
| Les Miles | 5 | 5 | 1 | LSU |
| Mack Brown | 9 | 12 | 0 | Texas |
| Mark Dantonio | 4 | 3 | 0 | Michigan State |
| Mark Helfrich | 0 | 0 | 0 | Oregon |
| Mark Hudspeth | 2 | 0 | 0 | Louisiana-Lafayette |
| Mark Richt | 7 | 5 | 0 | Georgia |
| Marques Tuiasosopo | 0 | 0 | 0 | Washington* |
| Matt Wells | 0 | 0 | 0 | Utah State |
| Mike Gundy | 2 | 5 | 0 | Oklahoma State |
| Mike Leach | 3 | 6 | 0 | Washington State |
| Mike Riley | 4 | 5 | 0 | Oregon State |
| Nick Saban | 8 | 6 | 0 | Alabama |
| Paul Chryst | 0 | 1 | 0 | Pittsburgh |
| Paul Johnson | 4 | 5 | 0 | Georgia Tech |
| Pete Lembo | 0 | 1 | 0 | Ball State |
| Randy Edsall | 3 | 2 | 0 | Maryland |
| Rich Rodriguez | 1 | 6 | 0 | Arizona |
| Rick Stockstill | 1 | 2 | 0 | Memphis |
| Rocky Long | 1 | 6 | 0 | San Diego State |
| Rod Carey | 0 | 1 | 0 | Northern Illinois |
| Ruffin McNeal | 0 | 2 | 0 | East Carolina |
| Scott Shafer | 0 | 0 | 0 | Syracuse |
| Steve Addazio | 1 | 0 | 0 | Boston College |
| Steve Spurrier | 9 | 11 | 1 | South Carolina |
| Tim DeRuyter | 1 | 1 | 0 | Fresno State |
| Todd Graham | 4 | 1 | 0 | Arizona State |
| Tommy Tuberville | 6 | 4 | 0 | Cincinnati |
| Tony Levine | 1 | 0 | 0 | Houston |
| Urban Meyer | 7 | 1 | 0 | Ohio State |
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Talent Mismatches
(No. of draft-eligible players considered prospects by NFLDraftScout.com)
Texas Tech (5) vs. Arizona State (16)
Central Florida (3) vs. Baylor (16)
Minnesota (4) vs. Syracuse (13)
Houston (5) vs. Vanderbilt (12)
Rutgers (7) vs. Notre Dame (14)
Auburn (10) vs. Florida State (15)
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Tracking Bowl Scoring
| Bowl Year | Average Points | Average Over/Under Total | Over Percentage | OVERs | UNDERs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 55.06 | 54.86 | 52.94% | 18 | 16 |
| 2011-12 | 54.85 | 55.87 | 45.71% | 16 | 19 |
| 2010-11 | 52.49 | 55.91 | 52.94% | 18 | 16 |
SOME STATS
(h/t TeamRankings.com)
Plays per game
Most: Texas Tech 91.7, BYU 88.8, Fresno State 87.6, Baylor 85.0, Arizona 84.0.
Fewest: Boston College 60.7, Miami, Fla. 65.5, Alabama 65.4, Notre Dame 65.6, Stanford 65.8
Yards per play
Most: Florida State 7.5, Baylor 7.3, Oregon 7.2, Ohio State 7.1, Texas A&M 7.
Fewest: Tulane 4.3, Virginia Tech 4.7, Syracuse 4.8, Pittsburgh 5.0, Minnesota 5.1.
Average points in first half
Most: Baylor 31.7, Florida State 28.0, Ohio State 26.8, Fresno State 25.4, Ball State 24.0.
Fewest: Syracuse 9.6, Arkansas State 11.8, Mississippi 12.2, Virginia Tech 12.5, Michigan State 12.5.
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Statistical Mismatches
Boise State’s No. 10 Red Zone offense vs. Oregon State’s No. 120 Red Zone defense
Buffalo’s No. 35 Red Zone offense vs. San Diego State’s No. 123 Red Zone defense
Boston College’s No. 2 Red Zone offense vs. Arizona’s No. 85 Red Zone defense
North Texas’ No. 1 Red Zone defense vs. UNLV’s No. 104 Red Zone offense
Oregon’s No. 9 rushing offense vs. Texas’ No. 121 rushing defense
Nebraska’s No. 19 rushing offense vs. Georgia’s No. 99 rushing defense
Texas Tech’s 31 turnovers lost vs. Arizona State’s 31 turnovers gained
San Diego State’s 28 turnovers lost vs. Buffalo’s 27 turnovers gained
Washington State’s No. 1 passing offense vs. Colorado State’s No. 100 pass efficiency defense
Marshall 7th Red Zone offense vs. Maryland’s 111th-ranked Red Zone defense.
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Bowl betting nuggets
–Teams playing in bowls in their home state are 47-30-2 ATS the past six seasons.
–Interim coaches in the last 10 bowl seasons have gone 19-22 straight-up and 17-23-1 against the spread, according to research by sports betting enthusiast and podcast personality @SkatingTripods.
–Pac-12 teams averaged the most points (33.29) per game. Conference USA teams scored the fewest (26.51) points per game.
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2013 non-conference straight-up record vs. FBS competition
AAC: 14-17
ACC: 28-15
Big 12: 16-6
Big Ten: 27-11
CUSA: 15-35
INDY: 23-42
MAC: 10-30
MWC: 11-27
Pac-12: 22-5
SEC: 35-9
Sun Belt: 13-17
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Conference bowl ATS records since 2004
(Realignment has polluted this stat, but it was requested by readers. Last season’s bowl ATS results were attributed to the conference the team is in this season).
SEC: 42-32
MWC: 28-18
Pac-12: 30-33
Big Ten: 26-29
AAC: 4-1
Big 12: 33-36
WAC: 14-15-1
Independents: 8-9
ACC: 34-32
CUSA: 22-26
Sun Belt: 10-9-1
MAC: 13-24-2
Special thanks to @SkatingTripods and @Doustism for research assistance. Line archives from Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, TeamRankings.com and OddsShark.com.