Really long bowl betting preview: Coaches’ ATS records, mismatches and so much more

In case all you want for Christmas is simply everything you need to know to successfully bet the most wonderful time of the year in one super-long post …

Strength-of-schedule mismatches

(According to Sagarin Ratings)

Colorado State (106) vs. Washington State (1)

Rice (104) vs. Mississippi State (8)

Michigan State (56) vs. Stanford (4)

Texas Tech (55) vs. Arizona State (2)

Cincinnati (119) vs. North Carolina (50)

Nebraska (60) vs. Georgia (9)

Miami, Fla. (58) vs. Louisville (109)

Rutgers (79) vs. Notre Dame (17)

Marshall (126) vs. Maryland (69)

Bowling Green (124) vs. Pittsburgh (32)

Boise State (94) vs. Oregon State (12)

Buffalo (128) vs. San Diego State (78)

Fresno State (110) vs. Southern Cal (13)

Auburn (20) vs. Florida State (63)

Bowl Records Against the Spread

CoachATS WATS LossPushCurrent school (*interim)
Adam Scheier000Bowling Green*
Al Golden010Miami, Fla.
Art Briles350Baylor
Bill Snyder4100Kansas State
Bo Pelini440Nebraska
Bob Stoops590Oklahoma
Bobby Hauck000UNLV
Bob Gregory000Boise State"
Brady Hoke111Michigam
Brian Kelly150Notre Dame
Bronco Mendenhall620BYU
Charlie Strong220Louisville
Clay Helton000Southern Cal*
Curtis Johnson000Tulane
Dabo Swinney230Clemson
Dan McCarney230North Texas
Dan Mullen120Mississippi State
David Bailiff200Rice
David Cutcliffe420Duke
David Shaw200Stanford
Doc Holliday100Marshall
Frank Beamer9100Virginia Tech
Frank Solich460Ohio
Gary Andersen 110Wisconsin
Gary Pinkel440Missouri
George O'Leary540Central Florida
Gus Malzahn000Auburn
Hugh Freeze100Ole Miss
James Franklin110Vanderbilt
Jeff Quinn110Buffalo
Jerry Kill020Minnesota
Jim McElwain000Colorado State
Jim Mora010UCLA
Jimbo Fisher300Florida State
John Thompson100Arkansas State*
Ken Niumatalolo230Navy
Kevin Sumlin210Texas A&M
Kirk Ferentz730Iowa
Kliff Kingsbury000Texas Tech
Kyle Flood010Rutgers
Larry Fedora130North Carolina
Les Miles551LSU
Mack Brown9120Texas
Mark Dantonio430Michigan State
Mark Helfrich000Oregon
Mark Hudspeth200Louisiana-Lafayette
Mark Richt 750Georgia
Marques Tuiasosopo000Washington*
Matt Wells000Utah State
Mike Gundy250Oklahoma State
Mike Leach 360Washington State
Mike Riley450Oregon State
Nick Saban 860Alabama
Paul Chryst010Pittsburgh
Paul Johnson450Georgia Tech
Pete Lembo 010Ball State
Randy Edsall320Maryland
Rich Rodriguez160Arizona
Rick Stockstill120Memphis
Rocky Long160San Diego State
Rod Carey010Northern Illinois
Ruffin McNeal020East Carolina
Scott Shafer000Syracuse
Steve Addazio100Boston College
Steve Spurrier9111South Carolina
Tim DeRuyter110Fresno State
Todd Graham410Arizona State
Tommy Tuberville640Cincinnati
Tony Levine100Houston
Urban Meyer710Ohio State

Talent Mismatches

(No. of draft-eligible players considered prospects by

Texas Tech (5) vs. Arizona State (16)

Central Florida (3) vs. Baylor (16)

Minnesota (4) vs. Syracuse (13)

Houston (5) vs. Vanderbilt (12)

Rutgers (7) vs. Notre Dame (14)

Auburn (10) vs. Florida State (15)

Tracking Bowl Scoring

Bowl YearAverage PointsAverage Over/Under TotalOver PercentageOVERsUNDERs
2012-13 55.0654.8652.94%1816



Plays per game

Most: Texas Tech 91.7, BYU 88.8, Fresno State 87.6, Baylor 85.0, Arizona 84.0.

Fewest: Boston College 60.7, Miami, Fla. 65.5, Alabama 65.4, Notre Dame 65.6, Stanford 65.8

Yards per play

Most: Florida State 7.5, Baylor 7.3, Oregon 7.2, Ohio State 7.1, Texas A&M 7.

Fewest: Tulane 4.3, Virginia Tech 4.7, Syracuse 4.8, Pittsburgh 5.0, Minnesota 5.1.

Average points in first half

Most: Baylor 31.7, Florida State 28.0, Ohio State 26.8, Fresno State 25.4, Ball State 24.0.

Fewest: Syracuse 9.6, Arkansas State 11.8, Mississippi 12.2, Virginia Tech 12.5, Michigan State 12.5.

Statistical Mismatches

Boise State’s No. 10 Red Zone offense vs. Oregon State’s No. 120 Red Zone defense

Buffalo’s No. 35 Red Zone offense vs. San Diego State’s No. 123 Red Zone defense

Boston College’s No. 2 Red Zone offense vs. Arizona’s No. 85 Red Zone defense

North Texas’ No. 1 Red Zone defense vs. UNLV’s No. 104 Red Zone offense

Oregon’s No. 9 rushing offense vs. Texas’ No. 121 rushing defense

Nebraska’s No. 19 rushing offense vs. Georgia’s No. 99 rushing defense

Texas Tech’s 31 turnovers lost vs. Arizona State’s 31 turnovers gained

San Diego State’s 28 turnovers lost vs. Buffalo’s 27 turnovers gained

Washington State’s No. 1 passing offense vs. Colorado State’s No. 100 pass efficiency defense

Marshall 7th Red Zone offense vs. Maryland’s 111th-ranked Red Zone defense.

Bowl betting nuggets

–Teams playing in bowls in their home state are 47-30-2 ATS the past six seasons.

–Interim coaches in the last 10 bowl seasons have gone 19-22 straight-up and 17-23-1 against the spread, according to research by sports betting enthusiast and podcast personality @SkatingTripods.

–Pac-12 teams averaged the most points (33.29) per game. Conference USA teams scored the fewest (26.51) points per game.

2013 non-conference straight-up record vs. FBS competition

AAC: 14-17

ACC: 28-15

Big 12: 16-6

Big Ten: 27-11

CUSA: 15-35

INDY: 23-42

MAC: 10-30

MWC: 11-27

Pac-12: 22-5

SEC: 35-9

Sun Belt: 13-17

Conference bowl ATS records since 2004

(Realignment has polluted this stat, but it was requested by readers. Last season’s bowl ATS results were attributed to the conference the team is in this season).

SEC: 42-32

MWC: 28-18

Pac-12: 30-33

Big Ten: 26-29

AAC: 4-1

Big 12: 33-36

WAC: 14-15-1

Independents: 8-9

ACC: 34-32

CUSA: 22-26

Sun Belt: 10-9-1

MAC: 13-24-2

Special thanks to @SkatingTripods and @Doustism for research assistance. Line archives from Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, and