As a general rule, betting on futures is a long-term losing proposition.
What makes these bets even worse, though, is that some sportsbooks gouge their customers by having ridiculously high hold percentages.
Below are the rankings for the best (and worst) places to bet 2014 Super Bowl futures in Las Vegas.
But first, here’s a few rules regarding hold percentages …
1. The lower the number, the better. Most of the time, you’ll see numbers ranging between 25 and 40 percent. Anything higher and the book is trying to steal your money.
2. You still have to shop around for the best line. Just because one sportsbook has a lower hold percentage than another does not mean they’ll offer the best payout on every team.
3. Hold percentages vary by sport. Some sportsbooks in Las Vegas are happy to have more exposure on some sports rather than others. So, use the list as a general guide rather than the be-all-end-all.
LAS VEGAS
- LVH: 27.78% (Best numbers on 12 of 32 NFL teams, worst on zero of 32.)
- Cantor: 28.18% (5 of 32; zero of 32)
- South Point: 28.93% (12 of 32; 2 of 32)
- Station: 38.3% (3 of 32; 1 of 32)
- Caesars Palace: 40.65% (3 of 32; 1 of 32)
- MGM: 42.06% (2 of 32; 1 of 32)
- Coast: 48.93% (1 of 32; 11 of 32)
- Treasure Island: 58.89% (1 of 32; 21 of 32)
Notes: Cantor Gaming ranked ninth out of 12 books with a 44.89% hold rate in 2012. This year, they’ve dropped it all the way to 28.18%, putting them among the best in the local market … Offshores generally have lower holds than Vegas books. For example, 5Dimes (14.53%), BetOnline (21.73%) and Bookmaker (22.16%) are all lower … William Hill had the second-best odds last year, but were unavailable at time of publication … As you can see, Treasure Island is a book you’ll want to avoid.
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For those interested, the hold percentage is configured by adding all of the implied probabilities for each team together. Implied probability is the percentage needed to break even over a long period of time at any given odds. For example, someone betting at +200 odds would need to hit exactly 33.33 percent of the time to break even. Therefore, the implied probability at +200 is 33.33 percent.
Once you’ve added all those up, it will result in a number like 120.62%. We’ll call that “x.” The hold percentage is then determined by using the formula 1 – (1/x).