Before Tuesday, Edward of Right Angle Sports hadn’t been a guest on Chad Millman’s “Behind the Bets” podcast in three years. After 29 minutes and 16 seconds of plain dialogue, we were reminded why it’s probably for the best.
Just kidding.
There were highlights. Quite a few of them, actually.
We’ve transcribed the best parts of the interview below and hope you’ll find them to be as informative as we did.
Click here to listen to the podcast in its entirety.
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Millman: Let’s get to the tout industry, because people ask me about this all the time. It’s a difficult thing for me to figure out. Am I bringing a tout on? Am I not bringing a tout on? What do you think of your industry?
Edward: I don’t like it. I think it has a long way to go before it can be taken seriously. There’s a lot of reasons for that. They say maybe 1 percent of sports bettors win. If we take that number, I don’t think it’s any higher for people that are charging for picks. The fact that you’re selling picks doesn’t increase the likelihood that you’re in that 1 percent. People need to recognize how difficult it is to win on a long-term basis and look at the market that the handicapper is trying to beat.
If you look at the college markets, which we’re in, they’re a lot easier to win and beat than something like pro football or NBA or Major League Baseball. In all my years of doing this, I might have run across five to 10 people who can beat the college sports markets. If you go to NFL, that number drops considerably. Or NBA. Or any of the bigger markets. So, you take that into consideration. Also, it’s so much easier to win as an individual than it is for a service. Because, as an individual, you can bet the openers, you can bet derivatives, you can shop for lines, you can time the market all day long, you can play props. Whatever it is. All are generally easier to win at. But when you’re running a service, you have to have set release times, use widely available numbers, and the level of difficulty really increases.
Take all that into consideration. And people are representing that they can win not only in one market, but two or three markets—including markets that are a lot more difficult? Some of these websites claim they have multiple guys who can win in all these markets, sometimes five or 10 different guys that are supposedly winning in these markets that are really hard to win at. I think that’s kind of the gist of it. Nobody wins. That’s kind of the premise that you have to start with when evaluating these handicappers.
Millman: I feel like it’s impossible to evaluate people. There is no credible way to get solid information on the backgrounds and records of people unless you’re doing the diligence yourself.
Edward: You need to establish some type of transparency, whether you’re showing your picks after the game starts, or if you’re being monitored by a third-party site. There’s an issue with every way you do it. But I think one of the most underrated ways of evaluating someone is seeing how they do against the closing line. If you don’t have a lot of time, and you’re watching someone for a couple weeks, they might be 14-10 or they might be 10-14. But a better way to see what their future edge might be if looking at those 24 plays is to see how they do against the closing line. Are they beating the closing line consistently? Are they beating it at all? That would be the first step in determining whether or not they’re going to win going forward.
Millman: You think that matters more than record?
Edward: If you’re looking at a short-term sample, then it definitely means more than a record. Sportsbooks will evaluate sharp play … if they get a new customer, they’re not going to look at if his first 10 plays won or lost. They’re going to look at if he’s beating the closing line. That’s how they’re going to evaluate that person’s play and whether they’re sharp or square.
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Note: You can listen to Millman’s weekly podcast by clicking here. Also, be sure to check out his blog, which you can find by clicking here.