Frequent DFT forum poster Drewby won DraftKings’ 3-wood Fantasy Golf tournament last weekend, earning him the top prize of $20,000 on a $300 entry. Below, he walks us through his lineup selection process, explaining the players he selected and the reasons why.
I start every tournament with the same base research. It includes the pricing, odds to win, top-5 odds, and the golfer’s profile as it relates to cut percentage, victories, etc. My base research always includes OWGR, Strokes Gained, GIR, Putting, Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance—all statistics that help me gain a clear understanding of each player’s game. (These stats are always important to consider regardless of tournament.)
From there, I usually bring in a couple additional statistics. For instance, I decided to look at Par 5 scoring this week since the Memorial is being played on a challenging par-72 course. After looking at previous box scores, I fully expected a highly-regarded player to win the championship, and it was clear that the best-performing players excelled in Par 5 scoring.
THE PLAYERS
After setting up my base workbook, I begin the process of narrowing down the field. I typically do this by putting players into bands based on price point, which allows me to navigate the decision-making tree a bit easier. Some players are easily crossed off the list while others can require more attention. So, instead of forcing myself to cut the field down to a set number, I instead try to come up with a core of five players (give or take) at each price point. This usually leaves me with a pool of 25 to 35 players that represents a playable pool to choose from when making final selections.
THE ROSTER
This particular week, I tested a new strategy I’ve been working on and fired tons of entries into the $3 GPP on top of the $300 entry pictured above. Between this and my cash game, I was left with a diversified set of exposure, allowing me to focus on creating one custom GPP team for the higher stakes contest. Fortunately—and despite creating 200 rosters with similar players—this ended up being a top-5 team for me.
THE STUD
Jordan Spieth. The only elite-level players I considered were Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama and Spieth, as I felt all three had a chance to contend. I have a DFS crush on Matsuyama and the track-suited DJ; and Spieth is arguably the top player in the world right now. The decision to roster Spieth came down to whether I could comfortably afford him without gutting my roster. If I could, he was my guy; and if I couldn’t find strong value, I was fine going down in price. With few good options, I didn’t really think twice about ownership at this level. While I understand a contrarian take, I’m still comfortable paying up for a high likelihood of a top-5 finish.
THE CONTENDERS
Patrick Reed. Reed, the second golfer I slotted in, was my No. 1 play at the $8000 level. He makes cuts and converts birdies, which is huge on DraftKings’ version of DFS golf. He also had the highest odds to place in the Top 5 in addition to the highest OWGR. He was 5th in the field in Strokes Gained and had Top-15 numbers for both Par 5 scoring and Par 5 Birdie or Better. There were a few guys I liked here but in the end it was between Reed, Billy Horschel and Brooks Koepka. In truth, I was a bit disappointed with Reed’s production and I could have done better here but I ran good in some other spots, as you’ll see.
Keegan Bradley. I played Bradley frequently last season but stayed away from him through much of this year due to his struggling putter. He switched away from the anchor in anticipation of the PGA making it illegal next year, and Adam Scott went through similar putting struggles when making the same change. Still, at $7800 I was getting a guy who hits the ball 300-plus yards, hits a ton of fairways and greens, makes cuts, and was playing in an average field. The icing on the cake was his Par 5 scoring. Sometimes you can’t predict ownership, and I was pleasantly surprised to see Bradley at just 10 percent with most people gravitating toward Russell Henley and Justin Thomas.
THE VALUE
Steve Stricker. I liked Stricker and didn’t think he’d be popular. I expected both Henley and Thomas to be popular given the pricing and the recency bias in the DFS world. They were high on my radar, on several lineups, and considered for cash games. Only after spending some time reading around the industry did I start to realize just how highly owned they might be. There was a lot of value at the $7000 range and I felt that Stricker would fly under the radar given his low volume of play on tour. When he does play, he makes cuts and finds himself flirting with the Top 25. At his price, I didn’t think I needed to ask for much more than that. If my other guys could compete, I felt that he could just be his solid self and I could do some damage. He turned out not to be as sneaky, or potent, as I thought but he did his job.
THE EUROPEANS
Francesco Molinari. While a lineup full of chalk can win a tournament, a lot of times all it takes to separate yourself from the pack are one or two great plays, and these guys won me the tournament. There are a few types of guys that I tend to think go under-owned: good players who recently missed a cut (recency bias), guys who haven’t played for a little while (out of sight out of mind), and Europeans not named Rory McIlroy (Team USA bias?). Molinari is a very solid player who can hit fairways, greens and make putts. He has the pedigree to win, having done it three times over in Europe and has contended at many past majors. With everyone jumping on Stricker, Thomas and Henley, almost nobody was on Molinari. I got a lot of compliments for the Andy Sullivan pick (below), but this was my best one. No way Molinari should have been 2.7 percent owned. A top-10 result wasn’t shocking.
Andy Sullivan. Honestly, I had never heard of Sullivan before last week and I follow a lot of golf. Along with George Coetzee, he intrigued me as a value option since I doubted others had heard of him if I hadn’t either. Turns out, Sullivan was invited to the WGC Match Play. Hmm? I went over to the European Tour website and started looking at his profile, and found a guy with two wins and a couple of Top 25’s. His statistics weren’t bad either. I felt Sullivan could make the cut, and if he did maybe that would be good enough for me. I certainly didn’t expect him to shoot a 64 and be a contender heading into the weekend. I had some good fortune to win this tournament, but the Sullivan play is still the only one in hindsight that looks off the radar.
THE SWEAT
In the end, I basically got lucky in two spots on my roster, with the rest of the team either meeting or performing close to modest expectations. But I was much luckier in my sweat, which you can read about here in the forum.
Feel free to ask any questions if you have them and I’ll do my best to answer.