Unbeaten odds: Oregon has best chance of running table, but what about Baylor?

We’re already to the time of year in college football where the inevitable questions are popping up.

“What happens if three or more teams finish undefeated? Would Baylor get in over Ohio State? What about Clemson? Where do they stand? Is the ACC stronger than the Pac-12? Shouldn’t Florida State get in over Oregon if both go unbeaten? What about Louisville? Where do they rank in all of this? Can’t we just have a playoff already!?”

And maybe, just maybe, this will be the year where it actually happens. Where multiple teams finish the season with perfect records in the final year of the awful BCS, and we have to debate the regular-season merits of three or more schools.

By using projected point spreads (derived from Games of the Year lines), we’ve calculated win odds for each team and determined their chances of remaining unbeaten throughout the regular season.

A few notes:

  • This is regular-season only. (It’s also power conference only. Sorry, Northern Illinois, Fresno State and Houston.) Conference championship games—which tend to throw a wrench in the national championship picture from time to time—aren’t included. Therefore, ignore the Week 15 numbers for teams that would have to play in conference championships.
  • Oregon (63%) has the best chance of anyone, with the toughest tests remaining at Washington this week and at Stanford in Week 11.
  • Baylor (30.1%), looking like it could steamroll through the weak Big 12, has a much better chance than conference-mate Oklahoma (6.9%), mainly because the Bears are projected 7.5-point favorites over the Sooners at home in Week 11.
  • It “should” be smooth sailing for Alabama (54.1%), but the Crimson Tide are only 7-point projected favorites in their showdown with LSU in Week 11.
  • If you haven’t caught on, we should probably wait until after Week 11 to really worry about any of this.
  • UCLA, Michigan, Texas Tech and Missouri all have less than a 2% chance of running the table.

* * *

RANKTEAMAFTER WEEK 789101112131415
1Alabama100%100%100%100%70%63.7%63.7%54.1%CC
2Oregon84%84%84%84%63%63%63%63%CC
3Clemson100%51%42.3%42.3%42.3%35.6%35.6%17.4%CC
4Ohio State100%91%77.4%77.4%77.4%70.4%61.2%34.9%CC
5Stanford75%55.5%42.7%42.7%10.7%7.5%7.5%6.2%CC
6Florida State100%49%49%39.2%39.2%39.2%39.2%21.2%CC
8Louisville91%73.7%73.7%73.7%73.7%69.3%69.3%69.3%58.9%
11UCLA100%26%0%0%0%0%0%0%CC
12Oklahoma85%85%72.3%72.3%19.5%18.7%13.9%13.9%6.9%
13Miami Florida100%79%79%15.8%10.4%8.3%8.3%6.2%CC
15Baylor95%95%95%95%69.4%58.9%37.1%30.1%30.1%
18Michigan57%43.9%43.9%23.3%16.3%8.3%4.1%1.7%CC
20Texas Tech88%71.3%10.7%3.2%2.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.2%
25Missouri25%12.3%5.8%4.5%3.5%3.5%2.1%0.8%CC