Betting roundup: Latest Golden State victory shifts odds on 73 wins significantly

The Golden State Warriors are pulling away from the field in the eyes of the betting markets. Already well on pace for the best record in NBA history, their latest theatrics—a 121-118 overtime win at Oklahoma City on Saturday night—has improved their odds for a repeat championship.

Reigning MVP Steph Curry led the win over the Thunder with 46 points and 12 3-pointers, including the game-winner from about 30 feet out. As the most-watched non-Christmas regular season game in three years, it set off a storm on social media, and it didn’t take long for sports books to reflect the after effects.

The Warriors have been the favorites or co-favorites to win the 2016 title since mid-November, but the odds have shortened significantly over the last month. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Golden State was listed at 3/2 favorites following a mid-January mini-slump in which they lost twice in a week.

Those losses, coupled with a back-loaded schedule prompted Westgate to take down the 73-win prop, fearful of a beating on “No” bets, and declare the Warriors had “no chance” of surpassing the 1995-96 Bulls record for wins in a season.

Immediately after, Golden State went on a a tear. They’ve won 16 of 17 since then, defeating Eastern Conference favorite Cleveland by 34 points, and San Antonio—which holds the league’s second-best record—by 30, as part of an 11-game winning streak.  In the midst of their current run, the 73-win prop went back up.

Last week, the odds on “Yes” moved from -110 to -125 to -150 with wins over the Hawks, Heat and Magic, and SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman said Westgate was taking “a ton of action” on the prop, mostly in support of the Warriors, who are now at 53-5 with 24 games remaining.

Fourteen of those games will come against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, including three more against the Spurs.

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“No. No. Not even close. Not even an input, a thought or a consideration. None. None whatsoever. I want to be real clear on that.” —Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on whether sports gambling allegations had anything to do with the team’s decision to release Joseph Randle in November.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • ESPN’s David Purdum reported on his Facebook page that no deal is imminent to bail out troubled DFS site FantasyHub, but “serious serious discussions are taking place to complete a deal with the goal of squaring everyone—players, charities and affiliates—up.”
  • No more real-money season-long fantasy leagues from ESPN.
  • A look at the effect of March Madness on gaming’s bottom line.
  • Police investigating allegations of inappropriate betting on Australian basketball games.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“I think there are 16 teams that could win it all and another 18 that could get to the Final Four.”—William Hill US sports book director Nick Bogdanovich on what’s expected to be a wide-open field in this year’s NCAA tournament.

Uneventful trade deadline yields minimal movement in NBA betting markets

The NBA betting market status quo remains unchanged after one of the quietest trading deadlines in recent memory.

The NBA’s major contenders mostly laid low last week, seemingly content with their current roster construction or unwilling to pay up for a three-month rental to chase a title that some say only a handful of teams have a chance of winning this season.

Cleveland picked up a potentially useful Channing Frye, and Tobias Harris could help Detroit down the road, but these aren’t the types of moves many were expecting nor the type that excite bettors.

“I don’t remember one that was this quiet,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “I’ve never seen it at this point in the season be such a foregone conclusion.

“The largest trade out there was Jeff Green going to the Clippers, which didn’t affect any odds. There was no shift in any odds based on what happened with any trades out there.”

Golden State, which became the fastest team to 50 wins in NBA history on Monday night, remains the odds-on favorite at 4/5, followed by Cleveland at 5/2, San Antonio at 4/1 and Oklahoma City at 14/1.

Nobody else stands much of a chance, Sherman says, which could be part of the reason teams chose to stand pat at the deadline. The Celtics, currently fighting for third in the East and listed at 40/1 to win the title, make a nice example.

“They could easily, with everything going on in the East, be the second-best team there,” Sherman said. “So in their minds, maybe they’re thinking they’re not that far away, and I’d heard they were thinking about making some big moves. But at the same time, they have all these assets going forward (including a lottery pick from the Nets), and it wouldn’t have made sense to get somebody that’s a rental with the team that they have, the coach that they have and everything they have going forward.”

There’s also a looming increase in the salary cap playing a role in teams’ decision-making, but the juggernaut that is Golden State is the league’s 800-pound gorilla for 2015-16.

The Warriors continue to exceed expectations, and following an update Tuesday, they’re getting even odds at Westgate in their chase to break the 1996 Bulls record of 72 regular-season wins.

“Basically, it moves a little with their wins and it moves a lot anytime they get a loss, obviously because of how magnified that is in relation to what they’re doing,” Sherman said. “Right around this pick ‘em price, we’re getting a ton of action on it.”

Betting is slower in the East, where Cleveland is a 1/6 favorite.

“We’ve gotten money on Toronto (8/1), we’ve gotten some money on Boston (17/1), but that’s about it,” Sherman said. “There’s some on the Bulls (20/1), but the Bulls look like they’re headed for a lost season. If things fell just right, maybe Toronto or Boston could do something, I just don’t see it.”

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“Since I had everything unplugged, I had no idea I was winning,” Matt Allen, the 27-year-old who quit his job in investment banking to play DFS full time. He won $110,000 in two DraftKings contests over the weekend.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • Odds on the NFL combine are going up at online books. BetOnline has +350 on somebody breaking Chris Johnson’s 4.24 time in the 40 yard dash.
  • Former NFL player reveals some of the truly bizarre questions he was asked at the combine.
  • DFS & Taxes: File as a professional or an amateur?
  • The Orioles, pegged for 78.5 wins by Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, added a leadoff hitter Tuesday, signing Dexter Fowler to a three-year deal.
  • Hilton Hotels apologized to Kyrie Irving after his bout with bed bugs during a recent stay.

CG Technology sports books planning to bring back Golden State Warriors 73-win prop bet

Sensing a growing demand, Las Vegas sportsbooks are considering re-offering a prop bet on whether the Golden State Warriors will surpass the NBA record for single-season wins.

After recently taking it down, Jason Simbal of CG Technology said the company was planning to bring back the popular bet Tuesday or Wednesday at the nine race and sportsbooks it operates in Las Vegas.

“The plan was to do it after the All-Star break,” Simbal said Tuesday, “but considering the fact that Golden State just blew out three of the best six or seven teams in the league by 30 points, we may put it up tomorrow or today – just a yes or no of ‘Will they beat the record.'”

Sportsbooks have taken a bit of a beating on the publicly supported Warriors so far this season. Simbal said the defending NBA champs, who began the season with 24 straight wins, opened the season with an over/under set at 58.5 wins and received a reset total of 69, both of which were predominantly bet over. With 41 wins already, the former looks like a lost cause and the latter is peril from the books’ perspective.

The Warriors are also 26-17-2 against the spread this year and their games have generated heightened interest from bettors. Simbal said their Monday night game against San Antonio was one of the most popular games of the regular season.

“In terms of the quantity of bets, we did two times more on the Golden State-Spurs game than we did on the busiest game of the whole weekend,” Simbal said. “That’s a Monday night, 7:30 p.m. (Pacific time). It just shows you how popular that game was.”

And most of those bets (about 65 percent) came in on the Warriors, who opened at -4 and closed at -5. They won in a rout, 120-90, over the team with the second-best record in the league (albeit without Tim Duncan).

It was the first of four games the Spurs and Warriors will play over the last half of the season, and it’s that back-loaded schedule that prompted Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, to say Golden State had “no chance” of reaching 73 wins this season.

“There’s no way the Warriors are going 36-5 with that schedule,” Sherman told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, just prior to the current three-game winning streak over the Cavs, Bulls and Spurs. “We’re in real good position on the prop.”

Sherman said the SuperBook, which took down the 73-win prop last week, may consider bringing it back, but it won’t be until after the Super Bowl.

At 41-4, the Warriors now hold the league’s best record by three games over San Antonio, though the Spurs lead the league in point differential. In addition to three more games with San Antonio, Golden State also has three more with Oklahoma City in a challenging stretch across the season’s final weeks.

If the Warriors reach 73 wins they would eclipse the Chicago Bulls’ record set in the 1995-96 season. That Chicago team is only one in history to reach the 70-win plateau, and only two others (including the 96-97 Bulls) have ever won 69.

Golden State won 67 last season and was 37-8 through 45 games.

Golden State has ‘no chance’ to reach 73 wins; prop bet taken off the board at SuperBook

Jeff Sherman is feeling pretty good about his short position on the odds of a record-breaking season for the Golden State Warriors.

The assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told the Las Vegas Review-Journal this weekend that the Warriors, now 38-4 after demolishing Cleveland on Monday, had “no chance” to reach 73 wins and break the single-season record held by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

That came before Golden State dropped the Cavs, 132-98, but it’s unlikely Monday’s result swayed his opinion much.

“They have got no chance to get there,” Sherman said. “There’s no way the Warriors are going 36-5 with that schedule. We’re in real good position on the prop.”

The odds for a 73-win season opened at 5-to-1 shortly after regular season began, but crept down to +130 in December, when Golden State was sitting at 23-0. Sherman said at the time 90 percent of the action had been on the Warriors surpassing 72 wins.

The prop was taken off the board Sunday, according to the Review-Journal. Sherman said in December the “no” side was starting to see more support, and that was likely accelerated when Golden State lost back-to-back road games last week.

“You see injuries taking a toll on the Warriors,” Sherman told the Review-Journal. “It’s going to be a tired team at some point. I like San Antonio more than I do Golden State.”

Westgate still has the Warriors as the 3-2 favorite to repeat as champs, but the Spurs aren’t far behind, currently getting 7-4 odds.

Winners of 11 straight, San Antonio has the NBA’s second-best record at 38-6 and leads the league in point differential, +14.3 compared to Golden State’s +11.7.

The Warriors have four straight games against probable playoff teams on deck, including a meeting with San Antonio on Monday. It will be the first meeting of the season between the Western Conference frontrunners, and the first of four scheduled clashes over the second half of the season.

Undisputed champ? Latest data shows DraftKings building firm lead over FanDuel

At the end of the NFL regular season, it appears DraftKings has overtaken FanDuel as the top operator in daily fantasy sports.

Since launching in 2012, DraftKings’ ascent has been swift, but 2015 represented new levels of acceleration—and turbulence. FanDuel ended 2014 as the unquestioned leader in DFS, but signs of an eroding leadership position surfaced in the summer, when DraftKings’ partnership with Major League Baseball and the surging popularity of its golf contests gave the site considerable momentum.

Comprehensive numbers are unavailable, making definitive conclusions difficult, if not impossible, to reach. Nonetheless, the most recent data from SuperLobby.com paint a pretty clear picture.

Last weekend, the final Sunday of the NFL regular season, DraftKings brought in more entry fees from its guaranteed contests alone than FanDuel did from GPPs and cash games combined. It was the second consecutive week of similar results and despite its incompleteness, it’s perhaps the most definite proof to this point that DraftKings is the affirmed industry leader.

SuperLobby_Week17NFL

Daily NFL contests will continue into the playoffs on both sites in a somewhat stripped-down fashion. Prize pools have declined at most sites throughout the season as the industry became engulfed in turmoil and turned its attention (and expenses) away from marketing and toward legal defenses on numerous fronts across the country.

DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker, which began the season with a $10 million pot and $3 million total going to the top two placers, will run this weekend with a $3.5 million pool and a $1 million jackpot.

FanDuel has opted for smaller pools with a more progressive payout structure. Its largest NFL contest includes a $1.25 million pool with less than 10 percent ($120,000) going to first place.

Beyond the NFL, both sites are performing well in NBA contests. In the most recent figures from SuperLobby, FanDuel brought in $20.35 million in NBA entry fees (GPPs and cash games) between Dec. 16-22, while DraftKings grossed $13.64 million from GPPs. FanDuel had a net revenue of a little more than $2 million, while DraftKings’ was slightly less than $1.5 million.

SuperLobby_NBADec16

Golf is also returning with its first tournament of 2016 this weekend. As of one hour before lineup lock, DraftKings appeared well on its way to filling or avoiding overlay in its guaranteed contests, providing a not-insignificant edge over FanDuel in immediate revenue.

FanDuel has shied away from DFS golf, citing legal concerns. As recently as September, company founder and CEO Nigel Eccel said he might reconsider, but given scrutiny now applied to the industry’s leading sites, that seems doubtful.

Odds on a record-breaking season for Golden State Warriors inching closer to even

Odds are, Golden State isn’t going to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record for wins in a season. But now at 23-0, the Warriors can no longer be considered a long shot to reach 73.

As of Wednesday morning, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Golden State as a +130 underdog to become the winningest team in NBA history. That’s down substantially in a relatively short period of time.

“It’s been like 90 percent one-way action on the ‘yes’,” said Jeff Sherman,  assistant manager of the SuperBook. “It was at 5-to-1 when we opened a few weeks ago, now we’re down to where it’s almost a pick ’em.”

Golden State extended its record-setting start to the season with a 131-123 win over Indiana on Tuesday. That’s the best open to an NBA season in league history, and dating back to last spring’s finals, the Warriors have now won 26 straight, which ties the 2012-13 Miami Heat for the second-longest winning streak in NBA history. The 1971-72 Lakers hold the record with 33 consecutive wins.

But no team other than the Michael Jordan-led Bulls, who went 72-10 and won the 1996 title, has ever eclipsed 70 wins in a season. Chicago was 21-2 through its first 23 games in 1995.

Last season, Golden State won 67 and claimed the title in six games over Cleveland. The Cavaliers opened as the favorites to take the 2016 crown, but have been surpassed by the Warriors, who are now listed at 6-5.

Sherman said the support behind the Warriors is typical, but as the line on 73 wins creeps down, betting patterns are starting to change.

“Anytime you put these kinds of things up—just like when we had the Patriots to go 16-0—we saw mostly yes support. Same thing with the Panthers. You don’t find too often people that like to lay the big price; they tend to bet smaller amounts where they can get 4- or 5-to-1.

“Basically, in the last few days, when we’ve had it at +240 or less, we’re starting to see more two-way action on it. We’re still seeing yes, but we’re also starting to see the no support.”

Support from pro leagues, ‘reasonable’ legislation positive signs for daily fantasy

After a run of two-plus weeks of seemingly nothing but bad news, subtle shifts toward the positive can be seen for daily fantasy sports, even as new bills with an eye toward regulation continue to surface.

The Wall Street Journal reported that an Illinois lawmaker is introducing legislation Tuesday, while a state representative in Minnesota announced similar intentions. That these developments are viewed as encouraging signs is evidence of how much has changed for an industry that until recently was dogmatic in its assertion that it could police itself.

According to their authors, the prospective bills in Minnesota and Illinois would create a regulatory framework for daily fantasy sports operators, but importantly, leave them free to do business in both states. That’s especially significant as the business model’s legality is under investigation in various states and at the federal level.

Inquiries by the FBI, Department of Justice, federal grand juries and state Attorneys General are ongoing and the potential conclusions are ominous. But there are indicators that the future isn’t as bleak as it has seemed at times over the past month.

The tide seemingly began to turn when NBA commissioner Adam Silver said his league would not withdraw from its partnership with FanDuel or waver in its support of daily fantasy sports.

“Given the recent developments over the past few weeks, the importance of these public statements in support of the daily fantasy sports industry cannot be overstated,” said attorney Justin Fielkow. “When leaders, particularly those as forward-thinking and reflective as Commissioner Silver, speak, people tend to listen.”

Since then MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and New England Patriots team president Jonathan Kraft have defended their investments in DraftKings.

Some of the timing is surely coincidental. Bills now seen as relatively favorable to the daily fantasy industry were not drafted based on the comments of investors. Nonetheless, the support from the NBA, MLB and daily fantasy’s other well-connected partners could prove critical for the industry’s long-term success.

Industry analysts have long speculated that daily fantasy’s relationships with powerful investors and the accompanying lobbying power would insulate DFS from a Black Friday-style shutdown or overly onerous regulation. It looks like that theory will be tested; significantly, US Attorney Preet Bharara, who helmed the investigation that led to online poker’s downfall in 2011, is now looking into DFS.

Serious legal battles remain on the horizon. The possibility that daily fantasy sports violated a federal law by operating in risky states could have dramatic and far-reaching implications, and if investigations find evidence of so-called insider trading—or worse—all bets are off. Literally.

But for the moment, at the state level, more lawmakers seem to be taking an approach akin to that shown in Illinois—one which a DraftKings spokesperson called “a reasonable and measured step toward oversight of fantasy sports,” in a statement to the Wall Street Journal.

Considering the events of the last month, operators and players alike can hope for nothing better.

With regulation looming, support of NBA commissioner, other DFS partners is vital

While also calling for regulation on Wednesday, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said that his league was standing by its partnership with FanDuel and continuing its support of daily fantasy sports.

Speaking with ESPN’s Outside The Lines, Silver said the NBA is “not considering withdrawing or backing off our relationship with the industry. It’s something that we’re monitoring very closely. And it’s something that we’re deeply engaged in on the broader subject of daily fantasy-slash-sports betting.”

It’s the first time a representative of any of the major sports leagues has spoken on the topic since daily fantasy became engulfed in controversy earlier this month, and it’s a bit of good news for the reeling industry and should be welcomed as such, even if it’s not precisely what some want to hear.

“There should be a regulatory framework; there should be increased transparency for consumers,” Silver told ESPN. “I think it would ultimately aid the industry. In fact, I think we’re seeing the marketplace impacted, because there’s not a clear regulatory framework right now.”

While the leading daily fantasy sites might have preferred to continue operating with minimal oversight or to form their own regulatory body, it appears the time for that has long since passed. While leading sites DraftKings and FanDuel have shown great skill and foresight in building a wildly popular product, they’ve been less forward-thinking when it comes to protecting themselves and their industry.

The best option available to DFS now might be to pursue the most favorable “regulatory framework” it can get, and the support of its big money partners will be instrumental in that.

More and more daily fantasy operators seem to agree. In a statement to ESPN, FanDuel seemed, grudgingly, amenable to the idea:

“FanDuel and our partners believe some regulation may be warranted and want to work with lawmakers to ensure fans continue to have access to all the fantasy games they love.”

FanDuel and other operators would be wise to cooperate in every feasible way, because fighting against oversight looks like a losing proposition.

Signs have been pointing toward a regulated environment for months now. The booming growth of the industry began to catch the attention of astute lawmakers last year, and though the scrutiny has increased in the wake of the “DK leak” controversy, legal analyses were already gathering steam in states across the country. The scandal and subsequent (yet unrelated) ruling of the Nevada Gaming Control Board that DFS is gambling only accelerated the inevitable.

Now daily fantasy is gearing up for a possible fight for its life. FanDuel is pushing a petition. Industry insiders are trying to kickstart a grassroots effort. While mobilizing the player base is a worthwhile effort, more power and influence will likely be found with the NBA and daily fantasy’s similar backers.

Analysts have believed that the partnerships fostered by DraftKings and FanDuel—including equity deals with the major media corporations, the NBA, MLB and NHL—would insulate daily fantasy from a repeat of poker’s Black Friday shutdown. With multiple legal inquiries now underway at both the state and federal level, that theory may be tested soon.

The possible outcomes are virtually limitless. But with daily fantasy’s foes seemingly outnumbering its allies, the only sure bet at this point is that DFS is better off with Silver in its corner than without, and to the end of fostering more support, acquiescence works better than resistance.

Las Vegas SuperBook releases NBA win totals; Knicks expected to make big improvement

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas released its NBA regular season win totals today with a few notable risers and fallers from last year.

The Portland Trailblazers were tagged with the biggest disparity from last year’s wins to this year’s totals. After winning 51 games and earning the No. 4 seed from the Western Conference as the champs of the Northwest Division last season, the Blazers were hit with a bevy of losses over the summer and are pegged for just 26.5 wins in the 2015-16 season.

“That was one of the tougher ones,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the SuperBook. “Them and the Nuggets were the two that basically had more variability than the others when we were making our numbers. They just lost so much, between (Robin) Lopez, (Aaron) Afflalo, (Nic) Batum, and obviously (Lamarcus) Aldridge, and they didn’t replace them with any key parts. So to us, in a tough Western Conference, it looks like you’ve got Damian Lillard and not much else besides that.”

On the other end of the spectrum, the New York Knicks make the biggest jump. Of course, after winning only 17 games last season, improvement should be all but guaranteed. Nonetheless, a 14.5-win swing represents a significant increase.

“Carmelo missed a lot of time last year and he’s cleared to play now,” Sherman said. “So you get him back. It’s Derek Fisher’s second year coaching, so you’d expect some improvement upon any mistakes that they came across, and they got Afflalo and Robin Lopez in free agency, and adding Kristaps Porzingis as an early draft pick, it just looks a lot more solid than what they had.”

Unsurprisingly, the defending champion Golden State Warriors are penciled in for the most wins at 60.5, followed immediately by a trio of Western Conference foes—San Antonio (58.5), Oklahoma City (57.5) and the Clippers (56.5).

Also at 56.5, defending conference champ Cleveland is the only team from the East with a total over 50.

2015-16 NBA regular season win totals (via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Team14-15 wins15-16 totalsTotals disparity
Blazers5126.5-24.5
Mavs5038.5-11.5
Hawks6049.5-10.5
Nets3828.5-9.5
Warriors6760.5-6.5
Grizzlies5550.5-4.5
Raptors4945.5-3.5
Nuggets3026.5-3.5
Suns3936.5-2.5
Rockets5654.5-1.5
Wizards4645.5-0.5
Hornets3332.5-0.5
Bulls5049.5-0.5
Clippers5656.50.5
Kings2930.51.5
Pistons3233.51.5
Jazz3840.52.5
Bucks4143.52.5
Pelicans4547.52.5
Celtics4042.52.5
Cavs5356.53.5
Spurs5558.53.5
76ers1821.53.5
Pacers3842.54.5
Magic2532.57.5
Lakers2129.58.5
Heat3745.58.5
Wolves1625.59.5
Thunder4557.512.5
Knicks1731.514.5

Betting Markets Declare Spurs Largest—And Only—Winners Of NBA Free Agency Period

There’s been much discussion about the San Antonio Spurs’ impending juggernaut given the team’s summer acquisitions of LaMarcus Aldridge and David West, re-signing of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to what have widely been considered very team-friendly contracts, and retaining the services of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili from retirement.

Not only were the Spurs the unanimous choice of offseason winner by a panel of ESPN experts and described as “clear cut winners” of the summer by FiveThirtyEight—the betting markets declared them, well, the only winners (or just about).

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*Vegas win probabilities are derived from the implied percentages from betting odds (i.e. 4-1 would convert to 20%) and then dividing these percentages by the sum of the implied percentages on every team (generally around 130%) so that they total to 100 percent.

It’s clear there’s only one real winner according to the futures markets: the Spurs, who made a huge 8.9 percent jump in implied championship probability, nearly tripling their pre-deadline title chances. (Other books had the jump as being even higher.)

A big reason the Spurs were the only team to make such a massive jump was not because they were the only team to sign a star player, but because they were the only team to do so that was not already widely expected to. LeBron James and Kevin Love both re-signed with Cleveland, the team with the best odds both before and after the deadline, but those were highly anticipated deals already baked into the Cavs’ pre-deadline odds. It’s the same situation for Marc Gasol and Memphis.

With the Spurs’ odds improving so much (San Antonio is now ahead of the defending champion Warriors but behind Cleveland for the 2016 title favorite), the perennial contender took percentage points from many other teams in the zero-sum system. Thus, only four of the 30 teams actually improved their title chances during free agency.

The Cavs, who dispelled the tiny amount of uncertainty surrounding their free agents, the Warriors, who re-signed Draymond Green, and the Bucks, who surprisingly landed Greg Monroe on a max contract, all saw minor bumps, though small enough to possibly just be market fluctuation noise. (For example, other books had the Warriors’ odds growing slightly longer after free agency.)

The remaining 26 teams had either zero or small decreases in championship probability.

At the bottom of the list, the team to suffer the greatest drop was the Aldridge-losing Blazers. Though their probability only dropped by 1.4 percent, given that a) their odds were already long with Aldridge, and b) the betting markets clearly had already anticipated the All-Star center would leave Portland—it was simply unclear which lucky suitor would land his services.

* * *

For current NBA futures odds, courtesy of Las Vegas SuperBook, click here