Betting Talk

- Soccer 2017/2018 Season -

124

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Morocco +122
    game goes in 20 minutes
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    saturday World Cup:

    Peru +213
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    saturday World Cup:

    Peru +213

    France -1.5, -2 -102
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    France -1.5, -2 -102

    screw you Umtiti
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    tuesday:
    Egypt 0, +0.5 +115
    Senegal/ Poland O2 -106
    Colombia -131

    wednesday:
    Portugal -0.5, -1 -117

    later:
    Switzerland +160
    Mexico -1 -105
    Belgium -1.5 -123
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Well,
    this explains a lot......
    (Click on the pic.twitter. com link below)

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Enjoyed watching Russia in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WorldCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw&quot;&gt;#WorldCup&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;But I'm skeptical of the huge step-up in performance from a nation with a history of state-sponsored doping<br>Decided to have a look at distance run and every team fell within 1.4 standard deviations of the mean... Except for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw&quot;&gt;#Russia&lt;/a&gt; <a href="https://t.co/8bRqBAS9kE">pic.twitter.com/8bRqBAS9kE</a></p>&mdash; Mr James Hodari  (@MrJamesHodari) <a href=" 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"; charset="utf-8"></script>
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    adding:
    Tunisia/Belgium O2.5 -106
    Germany Clean Sheet YES +101
    Mexico Clean Sheet YES -112 (to win 2 units)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Sweden/Germany U2.5/U3 +105
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    England -1.5/ -2 -106

    -England with highest xG in a single game (without penalties) so far this WC. While they allowed about only 0.20 xG to Tunisia from open play. 4-1 or 3-1 would have been a better score based on their advanced stats against Tunisia.
    -Panama couldn't keep up once Belgium turned on the intensity in the 2H of the first game. So looking for a 3-0 to 4-0 game here too, as England played with much more intensity than Belgium did.
  • Joey KnishJoey Knish Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    England -1.5/ -2 -106

    -England with highest xG in a single game (without penalties) so far this WC. While they allowed about only 0.20 xG to Tunisia from open play. 4-1 or 3-1 would have been a better score based on their advanced stats against Tunisia.
    -Panama couldn't keep up once Belgium turned on the intensity in the 2H of the first game. So looking for a 3-0 to 4-0 game here too, as England played with much more intensity than Belgium did.

    Great call!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    If you know a team is doping, why not back them?

    Russia +205

    rest of the plays:
    Portugal -138 (will confirm this play an hour before gametime. Results from the Group A games, might decide how they play.)
    Spain -1.5 +103
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Egypt/ Saudi Arabia O2/O2.5 -123
    Russia/ Uruguay O2 -128
    Iran/Portugal O2 -128
    Morocco/ Spain O2.5/O3 -108

    - These plays have little to do with the teams' scoring abilities or how well their defense can hold. This isn't about the stats.These plays are simply about chaos in the final half hour of the games. In game 3 of the first-round games, teams will be chasing goals, -1- to secure their qualification position (Russia & Uruguay), -2- to qualify (Spain, Portugal & Iran) or just to score and leave their dissapointing campaign with a win and their heads up (Morocco & Egypt). Many times they abandon their defensive formations and send men forward. Look for lots counterattacks with wide open fields for the attackers.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Portugal -138 (will confirm this play an hour before gametime. Results from the Group A games, might decide how they play.)

    Line on Portugal already 20 cents worse. I'm not playing it.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Game 3's
    tuesday till thursday

    Peru/ Australia O2/ O2.5 -119
    Argentina Nigeria O2.5 -120
    Sweden/ Mexico O2/ O2.5 -104
    Switzerland -136
    Japan +152
    Japan/ Poland O2/ O2.5 -121
    Colombia/ Senegal O2/ O2.5 -121
    Tunisia -117
    England +187 (Vertonghen, Meunier, De Bryune and Kompany (doubtful), won't play. Defense has always been a weak spot for the Belgians)
    Belgium/ England O2/ O2.5 -117
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Peru +130
    France +109
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Elimination round,
    Round of 16:

    Uruguay/ Portugal Draw +198
    Spain -158 (2x)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Peru +130
    France +109

    Insane that France can leave out Pogba, Mbappe, Pavard, Umtiti and Matuidi and still field a very strong squad. N'golo Kante is a shark as a defensive midfielder. Eriksen from Denmark will have a hard time creating chances over the middle. They'll mostly be going to the sides to try to generate something. They've been weak creating chances in the previous 2 games. Don't see them scoring here. France FTW.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Iceland +0.5 -105 (line dropped 8 cents as I was typing)
    Iceland/Croatia U2/ U2.5
    Iceland/ Croatia 1H draw +115


    Iceland needs the win to advance. Croatia has already advanced and is starting 7 new players. Just like in the France/ Denmark game they'll probably not give a 100% effort in attack.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    What an exhillarating afternoon. Hope you guys are enjoying it just like I am.

    In the round of 16 I'm expecting the following teams to advance:
    - Portugal
    - Spain
    - France
    - Croatia

    Portugal with the most difficult matchup v Uruguay. Based on their play so far, Argentina, Russia and Denmark are seriously flawed teams playing against very strong competition.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Mexico +134
    Tunisia/ Panama O2.5/ O3 -104
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Elimination round,
    Round of 16:

    Uruguay/ Portugal Draw +198
    Spain -158 (2x)

    Adding:
    France +138
    Croatia -113 (2x)
    Brazil/Mexico U2.5 -123
    Switzerland/Sweden draw +194
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    more round of 16:

    England/ Colombia O2 -106
    Japan +1/ +1.5 -113
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    World Cup Quarter-finals:

    France -101
    Sweden +0.5 -105
    England/ Sweden U2 -116
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    In the Uruguay/France game:

    highest scoring half: 2nd half +119
    1st booking: Uruguay -147
    1Half to draw -108
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    In the Uruguay/France game:

    highest scoring half: 2nd half +119
    1st booking: Uruguay -147
    1Half to draw -108

    France to start Tolisso instead of Matuidi. This means less attacking options and more predictability from France. It will be easier for the solid Uruguay defense to contain them. Tolisso just doesn't move ahead on his flank to deliver crosses like Matuidi does. It reinforces my belief in the 1H draw and the 2H to be highest scoring. I have this game as a 1-0 for France or a 0-0 draw.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    1st booking: Uruguay -147

    Honestly hate it when I lose bets because of player stupidity
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Semi Finals

    France +157 over Belgium.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Semi-Finals

    England +127
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    I was hoping one can you tell me on a 3 way what would half a goal be worth

    say team A was +180
    what would the line be with a half goal ?
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I was hoping one can you tell me on a 3 way what would half a goal be worth

    say team A was +180
    what would the line be with a half goal ?

    Your question doesn't specify whether you're looking at 2-way or 3-way betting. The answer for 2-way betting is easy. Just have a look at CRIS' lines:

    Premier League, August 10th:

    Option 1
    Manchester United -1 -125
    Leicester City +1 +102

    Option 2
    Manchester United -0.5 -208
    Leicester City +0.5 +167

    The half goal changes the price on Manchester United (favorite) by 83 cents (66%), while the underdog Leicester City's odds change by 65 cents (64%).

    Please note that in 3-way betting,
    Manchester United -208 (same as the -0.5 handicap odds, you need ManU to win this game for the bet to cash)
    Draw +322
    Leicester City +582
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