Betting Talk

MLB Plays 08/01

jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
edited August 2004 in Sports Betting
Started out like gangbusters yesterday , winning the first 2....then next
4 , promptly went down the drain.

Here's 6 I like today:

Atlanta -132(Glavine vs Byrd)

Seattle +212 (Franklin vs Colon)

Pitt / Mil Under 7 ( Wells vs Sheets)

Oakland -105 (Redman vs Regillo)

LA/SD Over 7 ( Perez vs Wells)

Boston -103 (Martinez vz Santana) - Public perseption aside , if I can get
Pedro and the Red Sox at -103 , I'm taking them. G.L.,Rid but I think
there's still some worth to that perseption , infact , the perseption has
dimmed a bit indicated by the -103 . When was the last time you saw
Martinez and Sox at almost Even Money with Pedro pitching?
Good luck to all on your plays. John Q. Public

Comments

  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    Bonus Play on St. Louis +135

    - Line available at Pinnacle Sports  
    - Williams & Schmidt
    - List Only Williams!!!
    - Game goes at 5:05 PM PST., 8:05 PM EST.
     
    Yes, we are all too aware that Schmidt is toeing the rubber for the
    G-man.  We are not about to suggest the Giants ace is overrated or attempt
    to uncover a chink in his armor, because there isn?t one.  But as we have
    said repeatedly, starting pitching is only one element that determines the
    outcome of a game.  In as much, St. Louis at this price is a ?Value 101?
    play given they hold a major advantage in every other important aspect of
    this contest.  Let us explain.
     
    The Cards soar in on a 12-4 run their last sixteen overall and finished
    July with a 21-5 (+$1,390) mark!!!  This latest streak has propelled the
    Cardinals to the best record in baseball at 66-37.  They also hold the
    best road record in baseball at an awesome 35-17.  And most importantly,
    the Red Birds are covered in green, ranked No. 2 in our team moneyline
    standings at +$1,960 overall and No. 1 in our road MLB moneyline standings
    at a whopping +$1,605. 
     
    No team even comes close to matching the Cards road profitability this
    season.  To put the Cardinals road achievements into perspective, the next
    most profitable road team, Minnesota, sits at +$940 when on the trail. 
    Refer back to the Cardinals +1,605 earnings and this point becomes crystal
    clear.  Moreover, St. Louis is now 20-8 (+1,285) on the road when playing
    teams with a winning record and 7-2 (+$810) on the road this season when
    priced as a pup of +125 to +175. 
     
    Meanwhile, the Giants come in at a very decent 57-49 overall for +$340 on
    the year.  After being red hot for most of June through about mid-July,
    San Francisco is, however, in a definite cooling period.  They are
    currently 2-6 their last eight overall and 4-8 their past twelve.  The
    prolific offense we saw from them during that hot streak has been a
    non-factor of late, producing just 4.0 runs per game their last twelve
    contests.  Compare that to the Cardinals offense, which is putting up 7.0
    runs per game their last seven and a whopping 5.8 runs per game on the
    road for the season. 
     
    And while the Giants certainly hold the starting pitching edge today, this
    has historically been a fantastic spot for Williams.  That is not to
    mention the Cards hold a decisive bullpen edge today.  As far as the first
    point goes, note that Williams is a staggering 39-11 (+$2,380) his last
    fifty night starts and 54-31 (+$2,320) his last eighty-five starts when
    the total is set between 7 and 8.5.  And one more note about Williams; the
    Cardinals are 10-1 his last eleven starts.  
     
    As far as bullpens go, there is simply no comparison.  The Cardinals in
    fact hold the second best pen ERA in the majors at 3.13 and an even better
    2.53 pen ERA when on the road.  Their pen has now converted 78% of save
    opportunities overall and 81% of save opportunities on the road.  On the
    flipside, the Giants bullpen is ranked 25th out of thirty MLB teams with a
    4.84 ERA?converting just 64% of save opportunities in 2004.  This is the
    same Giants bullpen that has surrendered 11 runs over the past two days
    against the Cards.  So yes, the Giants hold the starting pitch edge
    today.  But given all the other Cardinal advantages; this line is a
    complete gift.  Play St. Louis.    
  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    ...Took Pedro out after only 100 pitches , 3-2 Boston ,8th inning , he's
    lookin sharp , WHAT THE F#^^%K, Will the Red Sox ever manage a game
    correctly , F%&$K !
  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    ....You needed a CLOSER more that you needed a 1st baseman !!!!
  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    ...I can't speak for the guys at Superior Daily...but they seem to have
    well researched and well thought out advice on games....good write ups
    that make sence on the sides their playing,,,as far as I know Schmidt is
    still pitching and the Cards with Williams are still +130...I doubt they
    would like em at -160...but that doesnt seem to be the case here....
  • oakparkguyoakparkguy Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    Thanks for the post. Played it, and Cards won 6-1. Barry went hitless.
  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited August 2004
    Re: Glad you got it. EOM
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