Betting Talk

Saratoga 2-Year-Old Races 8/5/2004

bixlerbixler Senior Member
edited August 2004 in Sports Betting
Thursday, August 5

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs. Maiden Claiming ($50,000). Two Year Old Fillies. Purse
$24,000.

I've narrowed this field down to four main contenders, but I like TIZZY
RIZZI (Rizzi - Crusader's Poetry, by Crusader Sword) best. She is bred for
speed on both sides of her pedigree, and I absolutely love the second-time
starter - first-time Lasix angle. Her dam was a multiple stakes-winner
(earned 118K), and Tizzy Rizzy is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed
runner Lucky Locomotion. She was dismissed at 65-1 in her debut, and was
probably overmatched against Balletto (returned to win her entry-level
allowance condition here on Monday with a 73 Beyer). The drop to maiden
claimers should suit her perfectly, and she can sit a nice trip just off
the pacesetters. I'm expecting a solid performance.

MY MUCHACHA (Honour and Glory - Red Soul, by Storm Bird) goes out for the
powerful Jerry Bailey-Bill Mott combination, and she is another that is a
new Lasix user in her second start. She showed some agility after breaking
from post eleven in her debut at Churchill Downs, and finished evenly in
the stretch. The dam is a stakes-placed half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile
Special Happening (by Honour and Glory's sire), and Mott's horses often
improve drastically in their second starts. Her pedigree is full of turf
and stamina influences so her future may lie on the weeds. Still, she fits
very well with this group, and should be respected.

PERFECTLY QUIET (Quiet American - Perfectly Clear, by Woodman) is by a
poor juvenile debut sire (Quiet American only 5%), but she is inbred to
Mr. Prospector, and thus should have some speed. The stakes-winning dam
excelled on turf, and in routes, and is a half-sister to stakes-placed
Dancing Prism, and Grade 2-placed Vermilion. Trainer Bob Barbara will give
a leg up to John Velazquez, and the two are 8-1-2-1 together this year.
Barbara did send out a juvenile debut winner in a maiden claimer back in
2002, and the works look solid. She will probably do better going longer,
but could make her presence felt at a price.

SIS CITY (Slew City Slew - Smart Sis, by Beau Genius) has several angles
in her corner. She will make her first start in a maiden claimer, is
handled by the powerful trainer-jockey team of Steve Asmussen and Shane
Sellers, exits a key race (runner-up returned to win with 68 Beyer while
seventh-finisher graduated on Ellis Park turf with 56), and looms the main
speed from the rail. Her dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 turfer Swamp and
juvenile stakes-placed Billy Mousse. She fits very well in this spot, and
should be prominently-placed when the field turns for home. She figures to
take money, however, so don't settle for a short price.

ANGELA'S ANGEL (Lac Ouimet - Angel Force, by Halo) hasn't done much
running to date, but she drops into a claimer for the first time, and
tries the turf-to-dirt move for Phil Johnson. The dam is a half to
stakes-winner Silver Force and hails from the family of Preakness winner
Bee Bee Bee. New blinkers may inject early speed into her game, but she
must improve by leaps-and-bounds to get the job done.

MEMORABLE NIGHT (Fortunate Prospect - Unforgetable Night, by Ascot Night)
broke slowly, and was run off her feet in a quick maiden special weight,
and she should really appreciate dropping into this maiden seller. She
adds blinkers for this, but her trainer hasn't won with his last 45
juvenile runners. The dam is a half to juvenile stakes-winner Super You
and stakes-winner Marianka. She can improve a bit in this spot, but a
minor award may be her ceiling.

PUNCHOUT (Two Punch - Tacit Bid, by Meadowlake) failed to answer the bell
after being bet down to 3-1 for her debut at Philly Park. It's possible
that she bled as Lasix is added to the equation for her second start, and
there is some pedigree appeal (dam half to Grade 2 Approved To Fly,
multiple stakes-placed Tacit Wine, and multiple Mexican stakes-winner
Lobo). Daughter of Two Punch attracts Richard Migliore, but must show
marked improvement to win this.

LA FAMIGLIA (Family Calling - Plate's Sister, by Bucksplasher) is by a
stakes-winning son of Mr. Prospector that won his debut at two. Family
Calling has only sired two juvenile debut winners from forty firsters,
however, and some of these works look long and slow. The dam was unraced,
and she is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Plate Dancer. Trainer Allen
Iwinski does very good work with firsters, but this filly may need a start
to find her legs.

MERRILL GOLD (Gold Fever - Jolie Boutique, by Northern Jove) is a
half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Millennium Storm, and her dam is kin
to Grade 2 winner Mindy Gayle. She shows some solid works at Suffolk, and
her sire connects with 10% of his juvenile firsters. Trainer George
Saccardo sent out a juvenile debut winner at Suffolk last year with
blinkers on, and the works don't look bad at all. The outside post may
doom her to a wide trip so I'm merely going to take a wait-and-see
approach here.

I'm going to play Tizzy Rizzi to Win and Place.

Race 4
5 Furlongs. Maiden Special Weight. Two Year Old Fillies. Purse $45,000.

This looks like a tough race on paper as any one of seven could reach the
winner's circle. J P JEWEL (Dixie Union - Easy 'n Gold, by Slew o' Gold)
shows some quick works, and trainer Nick Zito has been known to pop a
juvenile firster at a price at the Spa (had three of them win last year,
and two were ridden by Edgar Prado). First-crop sire Dixie Union won his
debut at two, and went on to win the Haskell the following year. He is
0-10 with his two-year-old firsters in America, but does have a juvenile
debut winner at Lingfield in Great Britain. The dam went 3-6 in her
career, and is a half-sister to multiple Irish Group 3 winner
Two-Twenty-Two, Irish juvenile stakes-winner Desert Ease, and
stakes-winner (Malaysia) Easy Definition. The third dam won the Spinaway
and Matron at two in 1973 so this is a quality female family. Foaled in
May, she may want a bit more ground, but she is a three-quarter sister to
juvenile debut and Grade 2 winner Dixieland Gold. She could be a runner.

SHOP AGAIN (Wild Again - Shopping, by Private Account) is a half-sister to
stakes-winner Bought In Dixie and Grade 2-placed juvenile Bulling, and
debuts for the always-dangerous Allen Jerkens. The dam is a half to
multiple stakes-winner Karly's Harley, multiple Grade 2 winner Lay Down,
and Grade 3-placed runner Boyish Charm. She worked four furlongs in :48.91
on July 21 at Belmont while her stablemate Buzzy's Gold (four-year-old
with 103 Beyer top) went in :48.95. On August 2, Shop Again worked three
furlongs in :36.74. Stablemate Winsome (juvenile filly with 63 Beyer) went
the same distance in :36.72. The Wild Again - Private Account 'nick'
produced Grade 3 winner Omi. This filly hails from a quality female
family, and Jerkens shows a positive R.O.I. with his firsters. She
shouldn't be ignored.

GREAT DAME (Boston Harbor - One Great Lady, by Fappiano) showed good speed
at Churchill Downs, has yet to finish off the board, and will receive
Lasix for the first time. She has a very smooth lead change, but hasn't
shown much acceleration in her career, and has eaten a ton of money. The
dam is a half-sister to the great Lady's Secret and stakes-winner Missy
Slew. Great Dame figures to be among the first flight when they turn for
home, and her experience edge may be a major factor in this race. She
figures to be in the mix, but I wouldn't go crazy with her at a low price.

HURRICANE ANNIE (Stormy Atlantic - Great Trick, by Clever Trick) is by a
14% juvenile debut sire, and the dam is a half to Grade 1-winner Kamikaze
Rick, and Grade 1-placed Colony Light. Trainer Rick Violette sent out
three juvenile debut winners at the Spa last year, and has clicked with
26% of his juvenile runners over the last year-and-a-half period. She will
race with Lasix and is bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree. Early
money may tell the whole story here.

SAIDEIRA (Double Honor - Party Stopper, by Sir Ivor) is by an underrated
debut sire (11% with his juvenile firsters, and has an excellent R. O.
I.), and the dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 Pine Belt. She sold
pretty well earlier this year, and it's nice to see the plethora of five
furlong works in preparation for her debut. Trainer Gary Contessa sent out
a pair of winning juvenile firsters here in 2002, and it wouldn't be a
surprise if his charge shows some speed.

MISSILE BAY (Yest It's True - Saint La Petit, by Saint Ballado) made a
nice impression in her debut at Belmont last month. She was about to
professionally shoot through a narrow opening on the rail turning for
home, but had to alter course to the outside. She finished evenly in the
stretch, and galloped out nicely. George Weaver and Javier Castellano have
teamed up for a 17-2-3-4 record this year. The dam is a full sister to
Grade 3 winner Fantasy Angel, and is a half to multiple stakes-winner
Ellusive Tales, and multiple stakes-placed Gris Grande (Panama). By the
promising young sire Yes It's True, Missile Bay sold well earlier in the
year, and should be up on the pace. She is another that shouldn't be
dismissed.

ONE GOOD GAL (Good and Tough - Saratoga Ball, by Mr. Leader) is a half to
stakes-winner Ballonenostrikes, and is by a sire that has hit with 4 of
his 26 juvenile firsters. The dam is a half to multiple stakes-placed
Valiant Style, and One Good Gal shows some solid works for John Kimmel.
She sold for over twenty-seven times the sire's stud fee so she must have
shown a turn of foot back in February. The outside post may be a bit of
hindrance, but she is bred to be quick.

HOT STORM (Stormy Atlantic - Forgotten Secret, by Secret Slew) draws the
often-intimidating inside post position, and will need a clean break to
avoid being shuffled back entering the turn. Sire Stormy Atlantic has a
14% record with juvenile firsters, and the dam was stakes-placed. She may
need a race.

The ever-dangerous Todd Pletcher sends out the coupled entry of READY'S
GAL (More Than Ready - Exquisite Mistress, by Nasty and Bold) and LADY H
(Silver Deputy - Livia B, by Jolie's Halo). John Velazquez chooses the
former so I'll assume that Ready's Gal is the stronger half of the
coupling. First-crop sire More Than Ready was a quick juvenile for these
connections, and he has already sent out a couple of debut winners. The
dam won her debut at two en route to a pair of stakes wins the following
year, and has dropped multiple stakes-winner Go Scotty (217K), and
stakes-placed Chastity Belle. The workouts fail to leap off the page,
however, and the price may be knocked down because of the
Pletcher-Velazquez factor. Miss H is mired on the also-eligible list, but
she sold for a sale-record $450,000 in May after breezing in :21.3. She
has a nice, compact build, and bloodstock agent Buzz Chace told The
Blood-Horse that Miss H was "the star of the sale." She originally sold
for $75,000 as a yearling so she really impressed earlier this year. The
dam is a half-sister to Met Mile winner You and I, and Grade 1 winner
Chaposa Springs. She can't be taken lightly if she cracks the AE list.

MRS. MUIR (Silver Ghost - Desviacion, by Unreal Zeal) is by a 16% juvenile
debut sire, and goes out for a top first-out trainer. It's nice to see
that Jerry Bailey will climb aboard this full sister to Grade 3 winner
Cashel Castle (also a half to stakes-placed Scootchie). The dam is a half
to Grade 1 winner Lunar Spook, and Mrs. Muir shows some bullet works in
Kentucky. Her last published work as of this writing was on July 18 so
listen for late announcments regarding an additional workout. Tab the
first few flashes on the tote to see if she is live.

MORE MOONLIGHT (More Than Ready - Miss Moonlight, by Broad Brush) is a
homebred conditioned by the phenomenal debut trainer Steve Asmussen. The
works don't tell us much, but the dam is a half to turf stakes-placed
Nejalini, and Asmussen reaches out to his go-to rider Shane Sellers.

In a very tough race, I'll play J P Jewel to Win and Place, and use J P
Jewel in Exacta boxes with Shop Again and Great Dame.
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