Betting Talk

Rook and the NBA Moneyline

rookrook Senior Member
edited January 2020 in Sports Betting
I don’t know how long before this thread goes south, and I dart away, but I’ve been dinking around with this for a couple of weeks now and the worm still hasn’t turned, so I figured I’d post it in case anybody might be interested: I’ve just been going through the nba card each morning and picking out the moneyline bets that look to me like they are really likely to win. I put a unit on each moneyline, such that I risk that unit rather than try to win a unit. For instance I think a couple of nights ago I won .0367 units when the Bucks beat the Knicks.

It wouldn’t require much luck to win a bunch of bets like that in a row, and that is what has happened. Since I started doing this I have gained 7.2 units. But of course, it also won’t take many losses to make all gains go away. So, as I begin this thread, I do so in anticipation of the other shoe falling perhaps sometime soon...But if you like, check in once in a while to see what actually happens...

For convenience I am going to display the results of using $100 units for betting.

Today I only found one bet that looked right to me: nets -155 vs Hawks $100 to win $64.52 (betting at BM).
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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    I think it would be interested to see what you bet them at and what they actually close at
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    I’d be interested in that too, but perhaps too lazy to actually follow through on doing it! So far the -155 I got this morning hasn’t changed...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    so your taking these teams solely on what you think looks right ? interesting , which you luck brother
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    I "which" you luck too
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    dude really ??? am typing doing a million things not looking at the screen , you do everything else for me you might as well start proof read my posts before i send them
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Thanks jets96. Basically, I’m staying away from betting on teams that I think are erratic, or teams that I just don’t think I know enough about them, or match-ups that seem like a coin toss because the teams are pretty equal...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    got ya , thanks
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    dude really ??? am typing doing a million things not looking at the screen , you do everything else for me you might as well start proof read my posts before i send them

    come on I am just joshing, "why did you kill that guy Billy, he was joshing on me"
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Oh yeah, and also, such as couple of games today, staying away from fuzzy injury/fatigue situations...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    i know your joking dude , billy ??
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    OK, 1-0, +$64.52

    Today:
    Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75)
    Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    i know your joking dude , billy ??

    you never watched young guns, am I that old!

    - - - Updated - - -

    sorry not joshing they called it hacking
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    lmfao ...no i havent seen it, thanks
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    rook wrote: »
    OK, 1-0, +$64.52

    Today:
    Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75)
    Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22)
    Record
    2-1, -$13.26
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Today:
    Nets -145 vs Hornets ($68.97)
    Celtics -150 vs Nuggets ($66.67)
    Lakers -186 vs Trailblazers ($53.76)
    Heat -525 vs Wizards ($19.05)
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Record 6-1
    +$195.19
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Today’s bets:
    Mavericks -400 vs Pelicans ($25.00)
    Seventysixers -900 vs Cavaliers ($11.11)
    Pacers -225 vs Knicks ($44.44)
    Rockets -620 vs Suns ($16.13)
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Record 10-1
    +$291.87
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Today’s bets:
    Clippers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75)
    Lakers -730 vs Timberwolves ($13.70)
    Heat -295 vs Bulls ($33.90)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    rook wrote: »
    Record 10-1
    +$291.87

    for the record to mean anything, you need to put your avg bet at line and then your win %

    Record 10-1 90% avg line 92%

    something like that
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    if you want to use this just click file, click make a copy and give it a name and you can use it


    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZDkLFtWvynOMLxGcTih74LE1ialZqkK2nCi0MuAgEO0/edit#gid=0
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    for the record to mean anything, you need to put your avg bet at line and then your win %

    Record 10-1 90% avg line 92%

    something like that

    I like that idea!

    OK

    Record 10-1 ($100 per bet)
    +$291.87 avg $291.87 / 11 = +$26.53 per bet
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Record 13-1 ($100 per bet)
    +$371.22 (avg $371.22 / 14 = +$26.52 per bet)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    rook wrote: »
    Record 13-1 ($100 per bet)
    +$371.22 (avg $371.22 / 14 = +$26.52 per bet)

    you are winning at 92.8%
    what is your average line?
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    you are winning at 92.8%
    what is your average line?

    I think you should be able reverse engineer that from the average winnings, $26.52. I’m estimating about -377...(100/377 = .2652...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Today’s bets:
    Celtics -1500 vs Cavaliers ($6.67)
    Raptors -250 vs Bulls ($40.00)
    Bucks -900 vs Magic ($11.11)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    rook wrote: »
    I think you should be able reverse engineer that from the average winnings, $26.52. I’m estimating about -377...(100/377 = .2652...

    that process is too smart for me
    that is why I made that sheet for you
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    I need a sheet that will tell me if I have more money today than I had yesterday. If I had something like that, I think I could use the feedback to really improve my methods..
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Record 16-1 ($100 per bet)
    +$429.00 (avg $429.00/ 17 = +$25.24 per bet)
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    Today’s bets:
    Seventysixers -190 vs Nuggets ($52.63)
    Heat -400 vs Hawks ($25.00)
    Trailblazers -420 vs Knicks ($23.81)
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