Rook and the NBA Moneyline
rook
Senior Member
I dont know how long before this thread goes south, and I dart away, but Ive been dinking around with this for a couple of weeks now and the worm still hasnt turned, so I figured Id post it in case anybody might be interested: Ive just been going through the nba card each morning and picking out the moneyline bets that look to me like they are really likely to win. I put a unit on each moneyline, such that I risk that unit rather than try to win a unit. For instance I think a couple of nights ago I won .0367 units when the Bucks beat the Knicks.
It wouldnt require much luck to win a bunch of bets like that in a row, and that is what has happened. Since I started doing this I have gained 7.2 units. But of course, it also wont take many losses to make all gains go away. So, as I begin this thread, I do so in anticipation of the other shoe falling perhaps sometime soon...But if you like, check in once in a while to see what actually happens...
For convenience I am going to display the results of using $100 units for betting.
Today I only found one bet that looked right to me: nets -155 vs Hawks $100 to win $64.52 (betting at BM).
It wouldnt require much luck to win a bunch of bets like that in a row, and that is what has happened. Since I started doing this I have gained 7.2 units. But of course, it also wont take many losses to make all gains go away. So, as I begin this thread, I do so in anticipation of the other shoe falling perhaps sometime soon...But if you like, check in once in a while to see what actually happens...
For convenience I am going to display the results of using $100 units for betting.
Today I only found one bet that looked right to me: nets -155 vs Hawks $100 to win $64.52 (betting at BM).
Comments
come on I am just joshing, "why did you kill that guy Billy, he was joshing on me"
Today:
Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75)
Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22)
you never watched young guns, am I that old!
- - - Updated - - -
sorry not joshing they called it hacking
2-1, -$13.26
Nets -145 vs Hornets ($68.97)
Celtics -150 vs Nuggets ($66.67)
Lakers -186 vs Trailblazers ($53.76)
Heat -525 vs Wizards ($19.05)
+$195.19
Mavericks -400 vs Pelicans ($25.00)
Seventysixers -900 vs Cavaliers ($11.11)
Pacers -225 vs Knicks ($44.44)
Rockets -620 vs Suns ($16.13)
+$291.87
Clippers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75)
Lakers -730 vs Timberwolves ($13.70)
Heat -295 vs Bulls ($33.90)
for the record to mean anything, you need to put your avg bet at line and then your win %
Record 10-1 90% avg line 92%
something like that
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZDkLFtWvynOMLxGcTih74LE1ialZqkK2nCi0MuAgEO0/edit#gid=0
I like that idea!
OK
Record 10-1 ($100 per bet)
+$291.87 avg $291.87 / 11 = +$26.53 per bet
+$371.22 (avg $371.22 / 14 = +$26.52 per bet)
you are winning at 92.8%
what is your average line?
I think you should be able reverse engineer that from the average winnings, $26.52. Im estimating about -377...(100/377 = .2652...
Celtics -1500 vs Cavaliers ($6.67)
Raptors -250 vs Bulls ($40.00)
Bucks -900 vs Magic ($11.11)
that process is too smart for me
that is why I made that sheet for you
+$429.00 (avg $429.00/ 17 = +$25.24 per bet)
Seventysixers -190 vs Nuggets ($52.63)
Heat -400 vs Hawks ($25.00)
Trailblazers -420 vs Knicks ($23.81)