Betting Talk

Survivor Pool recommendations- 4 entries.

minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
edited September 2019 in Sports Betting
Guys, I joined a survival pool, (must win, no spread, can’t use the same team twice), and need your help. I have 4 entries, so I can have 4 different teams, all the same, or mix it up. Give me a few to get past this first week. Appreciate all your recommendations.
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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Week 1
    Seahawks
    Eagles
    Chiefs
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Hawks
  • gatorshoosiersgatorshoosiers Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Hawks or Saints
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    I think the highest probability of winning survivor pools is to find the team that not only has the highest probability of winning week 1 but the team that week 1 is their highest probability of winning for the season.

    Eagles might be most likely to win week 1 out of all the teams but which team is week 1 their highest probability of winning the entire season
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    I think the highest probability of winning survivor pools is to find the team that not only has the highest probability of winning week 1 but the team that week 1 is their highest probability of winning for the season.

    Eagles might be most likely to win week 1 out of all the teams but which team is week 1 their highest probability of winning the entire season

    I agree---I would take the Seahawks because I feel they have the highest win probability (78.1%) for this specific game vs their future value for the rest of the season
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    here you go I made this real quick hope it helps

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Mq5riFEXvcZEQqrRFVmPi_uxOsOg1V73KBeusVD1F9Y/edit?usp=sharing
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    be careful I might have missed byes in there, I need to redo it probably with byes, darn it

    you can click make a copy and then you can edit to update byes if you want

    - - - Updated - - -

    darn it, the scrape scraped without the byes skipped, so the lines are right but just need to be adjusted for the byes

    - - - Updated - - -

    I will try and fix it tonight should not take too long
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    SD
    Seattle
    Ravens
    Eagles

    In order of confidence..
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Excellent work Danshan. I am horrible at excel, so I will leave it up to you. Appreciate the work.
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    FWIW

    Played these for many years

    With 4 entries, I would never pick the same team in the same week

    You need to pick different teams each week

    Soon or later you will lose, but you still have the other entries

    You will have to take chances, because you can only use a team once

    I had 4 entries two years ago and actually won that year; Using up the favorites early will end up costing you later

    I wish you great success my friend
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    It’s a great pool. $20 a slot and last year there was almost $30k in there. 1500 slots. I was in the last few groups, lost with only 36 slots left. I think I had to play Detroit that week and they lost. Sucked. Anyway, I will summarize and post my picks on Friday. No bears/packer picks please...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    its done now if you find any errors let me know

    here would be my selections

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 60px"><col width="52"><col width="44"><col width="48"><col width="37"><col width="53"><col width="42"><col width="55"><col width="50"><col width="54"><col width="51"><col width="51"><col width="31"><col width="58"><col width="31"><col width="49"><col width="54"><col width="41"><col width="38"><col width="40"><col width="41"><col width="67"><col width="62"><col width="43"><col width="59"><col width="53"><col width="76"><col width="45"><col width="47"><col width="60"><col width="60"></colgroup><tbody>
    15

    13
    14



    8
    10

    2
    6




    7
    12

    11
    4
    9

    5

    16


    1

    3


    Chargers
    Raiders
    Chiefs
    Texans
    Colts
    Jaguars
    Titans
    Steelers
    Browns
    Bengals
    Ravens
    Patriots
    Jets
    Dolphins
    Bills
    Vikings
    Packers
    Bears
    Lions
    49ers
    Rams
    Seahawks
    Cardinals
    Saints
    Panthers
    Falcons
    Buccaneers
    Giants
    Eagles
    Redskins
    Cowboys

    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    if you want the file for yourself to edit and play with you can
    click file
    click make a copy
    give it a new name and you now have a copy you can edit and change anyway you like
    hope it helps I never played survivor's but it sounds fun good luck!
  • tinfw17tinfw17 Junior Member
    edited September 2019
    Eagles or Ravens
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    ive won a few and you have to take chances , using the season spreads helps, find teams that arent projected to win many games that have shots of winning this week , get them out of the way , there are going to be teams that are going to be big favorites all season , why use phila in week one ,or take them and teams like tb det/ari oak , they all have shots of winning but you need to look ahead and see how many other times they have shots of winning...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    ive won a few and you have to take chances , using the season spreads helps, find teams that arent projected to win many games that have shots of winning this week , get them out of the way , there are going to be teams that are going to be big favorites all season , why use phila in week one ,or take them and teams like tb det/ari oak , they all have shots of winning but you need to look ahead and see how many other times they have shots of winning...

    did you look at the spreadsheet I made? I think it shows the best possibilities to win each week
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    does anybody have any thoughts on my chart, i am curious to get some feedback on that chart
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    I see where you sheet shows the Seahawks and eagles. Who are the next two for this week? Dallas and Cleveland?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    minger2123 wrote: »
    I see where you sheet shows the Seahawks and eagles. Who are the next two for this week? Dallas and Cleveland?

    I would make a copy of the chart and rework it 4 times, that would give you 4 very viable options.

    if i was doing 4 I would use the same teams until you get to the weeks that are close like week 14 and 15
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Danshan, you can’t use the same teams twice. Once you use em, they are done.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    nice chart
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    minger2123 wrote: »
    Danshan, you can’t use the same teams twice. Once you use em, they are done.


    I know that sorry I think I was confused or confusing

    you got 4 accounts its kinda like a trifecta key

    acct 1 has eagles bears dolphins GIANTS
    acct 2 has eaglees bears dolphins BROWNS
    acct 3 has eagles bears dolphins LIONS

    you would have the exact same teams on each acct for the first 13 weeks and then week 14 15 you start splitting hairs

    does that make better sense?

    - - - Updated - - -
    jets96 wrote: »
    nice chart

    is it worth the finger sweat, you think?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    well it nice to look, but basically useless to me , but i still love ya pal
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    well it nice to look, but basically useless to me , but i still love ya pal

    come on dude elaborate, why do you think its useless?
    it seems to me the smartest way to play the survivorpool is use the team with the highest probability of winning that week and I think this chart does that
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    thats fine and good , you can only use a team once , when would you use the cards if you got that far to use them ?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    thats fine and good , you can only use a team once , when would you use the cards if you got that far to use them ?

    you pick 1 team per week right for 17 weeks or does it work differently than that?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    nope thats it , you lose the game your out

    am in the last man standing contest in vegas, i have to use the spreads, and you can pick the same team every week if you wish.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    that sounds impossible!

    so if the case is you need to use say 17 teams and you want to use the team that is best in that week considering that is their best week for the year, I think this has a good chance considering that even with this your chance is probably 0.01%
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    dan you know anything about robinhood investing site, my son took his money out of cry and was going to put in stocks comm free,
    or anyone else for that matter
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    its just freestyle trading! You choose what you want and i think commission is lower than most. I in the market do only 1 thing and that is go big name
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