Betting Talk

MLB Pick of the Day (by stats university professor)

ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
edited September 2019 in Sports Betting
Hello sports investors!

I have developed 19 MLB betting systems that have proven to work well over a 7-year span.

Thus far in 2019: +34.23 units from 599 bets (ROI = 5.7%).

I'm going to present one of them every day and keep track of the record.

Today's pick of the day:

Indians (at +125 or 2.25) at Mets

This pick is based on "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle:

"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:
  • Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
  • In 2019: +6.20 units from 99 bets (ROI = 6.3%)

Since the Indians have lost their past two games while the Mets are riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting Cleveland!

Best of luck!

Professor MJ
«1345

Comments

  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2019



    Today's pick of the day:

    Indians (at +125 or 2.25) at Mets

    Where did you get that price @11am? WalMart?
    With the rationale you provided qualifies your title as substitute teacher.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    FACT: if you post a line that is 6% better than the fair line that is available your ROI will be approximately 600 bps higher than if you post the current line. --- Professor of Arithmetic
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Would it not be Marlins, Giants and Indians?
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Where did you get that price @11am? WalMart?
    With the rationale you provided qualifies your title as substitute teacher.

    Before attacking someone, make sure you check your facts.

    Look at the line history on Covers.com:

    https://www.covers.com/sports/MLB/Odds/linehistory?eventId=581677

    At around 8:35am the line was -135 on the Mets (therefore +125 on the Indians).

    You may want to argue "yeah but you posted later than this". Sure. But that's still the time where I checked the odds. It takes time to shoot a video, edit it, post it on several websites, then do a write up and also post it on different websites.

    I don't get people's agressiveness right off the bat. Could you simply not kindly ask instead of making such silly comments? How hard is that? People lose respect for others as soon as they can hide behind a screen.

    - - - Updated - - -
    danshan wrote: »
    Would it not be Marlins, Giants and Indians?

    You are right! But like I said in the introduction, I am only going to present one pick each day.

    And by the way the Marlins did not turn out to be a play because the Braves met the criteria of another betting angle called "The Scoring Drought".

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm officially on tilt.

    From using my 19 betting strategies, we have experienced winnings in April, May, June and July.

    Now that I decided to run this series of "Free Pick of the Day" in August, that's when the losing got started.

    We are down roughly 10 units in August. Since the start of 2019, we are still up by 30 units, but this losing skid is pissing me off.

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 0
    Bets lost = 1
    Profit = -$1.00 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Indians (at -180 or 1.556) vs Royals


    (based on the high level of agressivement on this forum, I wonder if I should post a screen shot of Pinnacle.com. It went down to -177 a few minutes ago, now +181)

    This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

    "Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
    In 2019: +2.88 units from 30 bets (ROI = 9.6%)

    Since the Royals have lost their past two games by scoring just one run in each meeting (8-1 and 4-1) and they are indeed on the road with a money line above 2.50, we are betting the Indians.

    Have a good weekend!

    Professor MJ
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    s
    <tbody>

    <tbody>


    [TH="align: center"]A and p:runs < 3 and pp:runs < 3 and line > 149[/TH]



    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
    353-713 (-1.47, 33.1%)
    avg line: 179.2 / -199.3
    on / against: -$9,045 / +$2,313
    ROI: -8.5% / +1.1%



    </tbody>


    </tbody>


    </tbody>
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Professor, I agree with your comments about being aggressive. Post as you like, keep an honest record, and if someone doesn’t like it, they can simply ignore. This page was once a great place with some decent handicappers. It still can be, but picking on the new guy right off the bat will prevent this. Goats will get on him if he’s off on a line or total. Post away Professor! Good luck!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019

    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]line > 149 and season > 2011[/TH]



    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
    1850-3852 (-1.59, 32.4%)
    avg line: 178.8 / -196.1
    on / against: -$62,870 / +$33,596
    ROI: -11.0% / +3.0%

    </tbody>


    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    its a well known fact dogs in the MLB have been losing badly over the past few years, any noise you build like this is going to look good since dogs have under performed recently. Blindly betting against any over 149 dog will be a winner but this is overall and that probably does not change that each individual day lines are pretty darn efficient. whenever you have large chunks of data you can filter and filter and will find things like this that look like the sample size is decent and the ROI is good but they are just noise and the efficiency will come back.

    - - - Updated - - -

    if you want to discuss professor come over to my thread and we can discuss I dont want to clog your plays thread, good luck!
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I have developed 19 MLB betting systems that have proven to work well over a 7-year span.

    You have provided no proof of any record. Your 'system' is commonly referred to as 'data mining'. To win today you must apply metrics.
    You will find many searching for the Holy Grail.........you ain't it.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Before attacking someone, make sure you check your facts.

    Look at the line history on Covers.com:

    https://www.covers.com/sports/MLB/Odds/linehistory?eventId=581677

    At around 8:35am the line was -135 on the Mets (therefore +125 on the Indians).

    You may want to argue "yeah but you posted later than this". Sure. But that's still the time where I checked the odds. It takes time to shoot a video, edit it, post it on several websites, then do a write up and also post it on different websites.

    I don't get people's agressiveness right off the bat. Could you simply not kindly ask instead of making such silly comments? How hard is that? People lose respect for others as soon as they can hide behind a screen.

    - - - Updated - - -



    You are right! But like I said in the introduction, I am only going to present one pick each day.

    And by the way the Marlins did not turn out to be a play because the Braves met the criteria of another betting angle called "The Scoring Drought".

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm officially on tilt.

    From using my 19 betting strategies, we have experienced winnings in April, May, June and July.

    Now that I decided to run this series of "Free Pick of the Day" in August, that's when the losing got started.

    We are down roughly 10 units in August. Since the start of 2019, we are still up by 30 units, but this losing skid is pissing me off.

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 0
    Bets lost = 1
    Profit = -$1.00 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Indians (at -180 or 1.556) vs Royals


    (based on the high level of agressivement on this forum, I wonder if I should post a screen shot of Pinnacle.com. It went down to -177 a few minutes ago, now +181)

    This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

    "Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
    In 2019: +2.88 units from 30 bets (ROI = 9.6%)

    Since the Royals have lost their past two games by scoring just one run in each meeting (8-1 and 4-1) and they are indeed on the road with a money line above 2.50, we are betting the Indians.

    Have a good weekend!

    Professor MJ

    Yeah
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    minger2123 wrote: »
    Professor, I agree with your comments about being aggressive. Post as you like, keep an honest record, and if someone doesn’t like it, they can simply ignore. This page was once a great place with some decent handicappers. It still can be, but picking on the new guy right off the bat will prevent this. Goats will get on him if he’s off on a line or total. Post away Professor! Good luck!

    Thanks for the wise words buddy. I know I should simply ignore those people, but it upsets me that people claim I'm cheating while I really was using Pinnacle's odds. And I had proof of that.

    I'll follow your advice and just won't respond to such attacks. I'll just do my job and that will be it. Thanks minger2123!

    - - - Updated - - -
    Ronbets wrote: »
    You have provided no proof of any record. Your 'system' is commonly referred to as 'data mining'. To win today you must apply metrics.
    You will find many searching for the Holy Grail.........you ain't it.

    It's all documented on my website. This season (through August 22): +30.30 units from 617 bets (ROI = 4.9%). Each of those 617 bets is posted.

    And all betting strategies are clearly shown and explained too.

    - - - Updated - - -
    danshan wrote: »
    its a well known fact dogs in the MLB have been losing badly over the past few years, any noise you build like this is going to look good since dogs have under performed recently. Blindly betting against any over 149 dog will be a winner but this is overall and that probably does not change that each individual day lines are pretty darn efficient. whenever you have large chunks of data you can filter and filter and will find things like this that look like the sample size is decent and the ROI is good but they are just noise and the efficiency will come back.

    - - - Updated - - -

    if you want to discuss professor come over to my thread and we can discuss I dont want to clog your plays thread, good luck!

    Interesting insight dan. Don't worry, you are not clogging my plays, that's ok!

    "The Scoring Drought" is probably the only one where I pick more favorites than underdogs. Generally speaking, my system plays tend to favor much more underdogs. Maybe I should dig the data to see how many dogs they picked out of the 617 plays this year. That would be interesting. Will get back to you.

    - - - Updated - - -

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 1
    Bets lost = 1
    Profit = -$0.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Yankees (at +129 or 2.29) at Dodgers

    This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:

    "Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
    In 2019: +10.56 units from 103 bets (ROI = 10.3%)

    Since the Yankees beat those same Dodgers 10-2 last night, we are betting New York.

    Have a good weekend!

    Professor MJ
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited August 2019
    Welcome to BT. Please read the posting rules and record keeping guidelines if you haven't. Links are at the top of the forum.

    Just make sure your lines are available WHEN YOU POST and from one of the books listed. Also, please do not cite any records on plays not posted here at BT. Thanks for understanding and good luck!
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    RECORD:
    Bets won = 1
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = -$1.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Pirates (at +122 or 2.22) vs Reds

    This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:

    "Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
    In 2019: +11.82 units from 99 bets (ROI = 11.9%)

    Since Pittsburgh beat Cincy 14-0 last night, we are betting the Pirates today.

    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Good job Pirates for pulling off the upset win yesterday!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 2
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = -$0.22 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Reds (at -156 or 1.641) at Marlins

    This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:

    "Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
    In 2019: -5.83 units from 40 bets

    Since the Reds have allowed 9+ runs in each of their past two meetings (9-8 and 14-0 losses), we are betting them tonight.

    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Great! We have now won our past 2 bets, and today we are going to swing for the fences with a big underdog!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 3
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = +$0.42 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Orioles (at +288 or 3.88) at Nationals

    We have 3 betting systems indicating to bet Baltimore (one of them being the most lucrative in 2019 BY FAR)!

    Let's review quickly two of them.

    "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:

    "Bet a road team coming off a win when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +10.57 units from 163 bets (ROI = 6.5%)
    In 2019: +0.67 units from 17 bets

    "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:

    "Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
    In 2019: +32.72 units from 132 bets

    Since Baltimore is riding a 2-game winning streak while the Nationals are on a 5-game winning streak, we are betting the Orioles.

    Also, the Nationals have indeed won their past two games by scoring 6+ runs in each (7-5 and 7-2) so we must fade them.

    Have a great day savvy sports investors!

    Professor MJ
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    VSIN had write-up on this in today's new york post.

    Good luck
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    KABOOM!!!!!!!!

    The Orioles pulled off a huge upset win in Washington last night. A big juicy return!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 4
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = +$3.30 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Indians (at -172 or 1.581) at Tigers

    This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:

    "Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
    In 2019: +11.82 units from 99 bets (ROI = 11.9%)

    Since Cleveland beat those same Tigers 10-1 last night, we are betting the Indians today.

    WARNING: you might believe that you should bet the Astros tonight, since they CRUSHED the Rays 15-1 yesterday. However, I've got a record-high 4 betting systems recommending to bet Tampa Bay. Since we have conflicting information I am going to stay away from that game. But if I was forced to bet it, I'd go with the Rays as fairly big underdogs.

    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I appreciate the picks and great W last night.

    But just before you get told by a MOD....you cant reference non-BT records.

    Again, thanks for the plays. G Luck.
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I appreciate the picks and great W last night.

    But just before you get told by a MOD....you cant reference non-BT records.

    Again, thanks for the plays. G Luck.

    You mean when I talk about past performance of betting systems? I thought the point was to show it did well in the past...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    people here are so touchy!

    just put at the bottom 'THIS IS NOT MY RECORD, THIS IS THE RECORD OF THIS HISTORICALLY MEETING THESE CONDITIONS"
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    sorry. thought I was helping him out

    SORRY
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    sorry. thought I was helping him out

    SORRY

    I was talking about overall, Goats told him and then you told him, I think if he just does what I say he should be fine.

    he is not promoting his past record he is saying what that data mine has done historically, if he just disclaims that I think he should be fine. I have no intention of interfering in your posts, I was just trying to clarify since he seemed confused on what was the issue! I apologize if I offended you with my comment!
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I'm in agreement with danshan on this issue. ProfessorMJ is not promoting the trend/system that attained the play, as his record, but as an explanation of why it is a play.
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I'm in agreement with danshan on this issue. ProfessorMJ is not promoting the trend/system that attained the play, as his record, but as an explanation of why it is a play.

    Yep, that's exactly what I was doing, you got it. The only part where I claim it to be "my record" is shown at the beginning of each of my posts; bets won, bets lost and profit ON THE PLAYS I POSTED HERE.

    Thanks everyone for helping me out!!!
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    The good streak continued last night with another winner!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 5
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = +$3.88 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day:

    Rays (at +209 or 3.09) at Astros

    PAY ATTENTION!! Today's play meets the criteria of a record-setting FOUR betting systems at a time (out of my 19 different betting strategies). That's the highest number I've ever seen.

    Let me tell you about just one of those four betting angles:

    "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup": Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins.

    PERFORMANCE (the following is not my record, just historical record of games meeting the criteria for betting)

    Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
    In 2019: +7.07 units from 103 bets (ROI = 6.9%)

    Since Tampa Bay is coming off 4 straight losses while Houston is riding a 6-game winning streak, we are betting the Rays tonight.

    Cheers!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    This is just unbelievable, what a great run!
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Thx dude!
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Lancer wrote: »
    Thx dude!

    Hey you're welcome buddy, I'm glad I could help! Let's crush those bookies man!
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Oh. My. God!

    We have won our past 5 bets, including two HUGE underdogs (yesterday's Rays at +209 and the Orioles at +288 three days ago).

    I guess it's fair to say we are ON FIRE!!!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 6
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = +$5.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 11am Eastern Time):

    Mariners (at +101 or 2.01) at Rangers

    This pick is based on "The Big Upset" betting angle #1:

    "Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.50. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if its money line is 2.25 or less."

    PERFORMANCE:

    Over 7 years: +37.79 units from 261 bets (ROI = 14.5%)
    In 2019: +2.42 units from 35 bets (ROI = 6.9%)

    Since Seattle upset those same Rangers last night despite 2.69 odds and because today's odds are indeed lower than 2.25, we are betting the Mariners.

    Have a great Labor Day weekend!

    Professor MJ
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    don't put yourself in the gambling hall of fame just yet pal.
    good luck
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