yes it super sucks and is nuts, I came through there to go to Parsippany and it was crazy. I was referring to it as the "international" main point for europeans using the decimal system.
Professor, not getting involved in some of the stuff, but you must follow the record keeping guidelines. If your lines are not available WHEN YOU POST then you cannot use them.
Please make sure you use current lines as explained above. Thank you.
The last two picks of the day turned out to be losers (both on the Nationals!).
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 7
Profit = +$3.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:51 AM Eastern Time):
Reds (at +106 or 2.06) vs D-Backs
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -$4.63 units from 20 bets (small sample size!!)
Since Arizona's past two games both ended with a win while allowing just one run in each meeting (4-1 and 2-1 victories), we are betting against them.
Ronbets--we've been on this board and others for a long time, and you know that I respect your opinion and experience in the gambling arena as much as I respect anyone on Betting Talk, but I think your comment here is the type of retort that drives posters away from the board and inhibits others from posting at all. Whether we believe his system for formulating his picks is valid or not, we should encourage opinions and posts from others, not drive them away with insulting rhetoric, like calling him "either a novice gambler, a rookie scammer, or a middle school French teacher". There's got to be a better way to question some one's posts than to be being outwardly insulting. Lord knows we could use more posters and opinions on the Betting Talk board.
i agree with your larger point. i did try to politely explain to him the problematic nature of using stale lines and he totally ignores it while changing his methodology. so two conclusions:
1) the poster is either completely ignorant of the reason why using stale lines are problematic
2) the poster understands it is problematic and is doing it anyway, so hes immoral and a cheater.
1 or 2 would make me very leery of following the plays alone, not to even touch on the data mining aspect. so, again while i agree with your larger point, i also understand ron's frustration, too.
i agree with your larger point. i did try to politely explain to him the problematic nature of using stale lines and he totally ignores it while changing his methodology. so two conclusions:
1) the poster is either completely ignorant of the reason why using stale lines are problematic
2) the poster understands it is problematic and is doing it anyway, so hes immoral and a cheater.
1 or 2 would make me very leery of following the plays alone, not to even touch on the data mining aspect. so, again while i agree with your larger point, i also understand ron's frustration, too.
Why are we still talking about this? The line was 3 hours old just one time (and many days ago). I do understand why using stale lines is problematic. I already explained why it happened that one time. I think we all agree on this topic.
The lines were certainly not stale the last several days, so what is wrong once again??? I checked again Pinnacle's line just before I submitted my post, and it was +106 (now +107 as I am typing this).
Why are we still talking about this? The line was 3 hours old just one time (and many days ago). I do understand why using stale lines is problematic. I already explained why it happened that one time. I think we all agree on this topic.
The lines were certainly not stale the last several days, so what is wrong once again??? I checked again Pinnacle's line just before I submitted my post, and it was +106 (now +107 as I am typing this).
you did it multiple times (hence goats' corrections) you said:
Before attacking someone, make sure you check your facts.
At around 8:35am the line was -135 on the Mets (therefore +125 on the Indians).
You may want to argue "yeah but you posted later than this". Sure. But that's still the time where I checked the odds. It takes time to shoot a video, edit it, post it on several websites, then do a write up and also post it on different websites.
I don't get people's agressiveness right off the bat. Could you simply not kindly ask instead of making such silly comments? How hard is that? People lose respect for others as soon as they can hide behind a screen.
to me what you wrote conveys someone trying to justify your price based on old lines. someone trying to justify their price based on old lines, again, clearly 1) does not understand why you cannot do that. 2) does understand, and is cheating.
you have corrected the behavior and that is great and commendable. you dont need to belabor the point by changing 1c etc. i wish you good luck and hope your plays kill it, but you can see maybe why others are skeptical.
ProfessorMJ is just trying to get his tout business rolling and a little clueless. He wants to just post his writeups without having to go to the trouble of editing just for BT. He did not read the posting rules and then brushed them off as a guideline and annoyance. He is treating BT as he does any other gambling site where people just want to read the writeup.
you have corrected the behavior and that is great and commendable. you dont need to belabor the point by changing 1c etc. i wish you good luck and hope your plays kill it, but you can see maybe why others are skeptical.
ProfessorMJ is just trying to get his tout business rolling and a little clueless. He wants to just post his writeups without having to go to the trouble of editing just for BT. He did not read the posting rules and then brushed them off as a guideline and annoyance. He is treating BT as he does any other gambling site where people just want to read the writeup.
He's getting the hang of it.
haha once again nailing the crux of it. +1 for giving me a good belly laugh.
Things are not going well, as we are undergoing a three-game losing skid! Let's roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track ASAP!
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +$2.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30 AM Eastern Time):
Tigers (at +264 or 3.64) at A's
This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:
"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
Since Detroit overcame a four-run deficit yesterday and their money line today is indeed much greater than 1.5714, we are betting them. It's a long shot, but let's see how it plays out!
Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +$1.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets
Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.
Good job Rockies for a nice 2-1 upset win against the Cards yesterday, thanks to a 482-foot two-run homer by Nolan Arenado!
RECORD:
Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +3.21$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Reds (at -143 or 1.70) at Mariners
This pick is based on "The Snapped Losing Streak" betting angle #2:
"Fade a team whose losing streak of length 4+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if they are at home, facing the same opponent and their money line is greater than 1.50."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +27.36 units from 388 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: +9.79 units from 27 bets (ROI = 36.3%)
Since Seattle just snapped their 6-game losing skid yesterday against those same Reds and they are playing at home, we are betting Cincy.
We have won 4 of our past 5 picks of the day, let's keep it up!
RECORD:
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +4.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Giants (at -215 or 1.465) vs Marlins
This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:
"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.72 units from 33 bets (ROI = 8.2%)
Since Miami has lost its past two games by scoring just 0 and 2 runs respectively, and they are fairly big road underdogs, we are betting against them.
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 11
Profit = +3.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Padres (at +100 or 2.00) at Rockies
This play meets the criteria of 2 betting angles at a time. Under such circumstances, our ROI (Return On Investment) tripled in 2019 compared to the case where a pick met the criteria of a single betting strategy.
One of these two systems is called "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
Since San Diego is on the road and has lost its past two games by allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively, we are betting them this afternoon.
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +1.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
I'm gonna do something special today by providing 2 picks instead of just one. They both meet the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time!!! This has proven to triple the ROI in 2019.
Reds (at +141 or 2.41) at Cubs
Mets (at -143 or 1.699) at Rockies
One of the betting angles recommending these picks is called "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup":
"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +14.24 units from 121 bets (ROI = 11.8%)
Since Cincinnati has lost its last game while the Cubs are riding a 5-game winning streak, we are betting the Reds.
Also, considering the Mets have lost their past two games while the Rockies are on a 4-game winning streak, we are betting New York.
Wouldn't this same angle have applied to Cubs yesterday? The game they won 16-6??
I appreciate your daily posts.
"The Blowout" betting angle recommended to bet the Cubs on that day (September 15), but "The Hot Bats" and "The Pummeled Pitchers" suggested to bet the Pirates. Therefore, I stayed away from that game.
For the very first time I provided 2 picks of the day because I felt both were very strong plays. And both won! Good job Reds & Mets!!
RECORD:
Bets won = 14
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +3.55$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Padres (at +135 or 2.35) at Brewers
This play is based on the same betting angle as yesterday: "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle:
Since San Diego is undergoing a 6-game losing streak while Milwaukee is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are going against the grain by betting the "cold" team: the Padres!
Comments
Please make sure you use current lines as explained above. Thank you.
RECORD:
Today's pick of the day (see odds attached taken from 2 minutes ago from Pinnacle):
Nationals (at -111 or 1.901) at Braves
This pick is based on "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."
PERFORMANCE:
Since Atlanta won its previous two meetings 7-2 and 6-3, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 7
Profit = +$3.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:51 AM Eastern Time):
Reds (at +106 or 2.06) vs D-Backs
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -$4.63 units from 20 bets (small sample size!!)
Since Arizona's past two games both ended with a win while allowing just one run in each meeting (4-1 and 2-1 victories), we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
i agree with your larger point. i did try to politely explain to him the problematic nature of using stale lines and he totally ignores it while changing his methodology. so two conclusions:
1) the poster is either completely ignorant of the reason why using stale lines are problematic
2) the poster understands it is problematic and is doing it anyway, so hes immoral and a cheater.
1 or 2 would make me very leery of following the plays alone, not to even touch on the data mining aspect. so, again while i agree with your larger point, i also understand ron's frustration, too.
Why are we still talking about this? The line was 3 hours old just one time (and many days ago). I do understand why using stale lines is problematic. I already explained why it happened that one time. I think we all agree on this topic.
The lines were certainly not stale the last several days, so what is wrong once again??? I checked again Pinnacle's line just before I submitted my post, and it was +106 (now +107 as I am typing this).
you did it multiple times (hence goats' corrections) you said:
Before attacking someone, make sure you check your facts.
Look at the line history on Covers.com:
https://www.covers.com/sports/MLB/Od...eventId=581677
At around 8:35am the line was -135 on the Mets (therefore +125 on the Indians).
You may want to argue "yeah but you posted later than this". Sure. But that's still the time where I checked the odds. It takes time to shoot a video, edit it, post it on several websites, then do a write up and also post it on different websites.
I don't get people's agressiveness right off the bat. Could you simply not kindly ask instead of making such silly comments? How hard is that? People lose respect for others as soon as they can hide behind a screen.
to me what you wrote conveys someone trying to justify your price based on old lines. someone trying to justify their price based on old lines, again, clearly 1) does not understand why you cannot do that. 2) does understand, and is cheating.
you have corrected the behavior and that is great and commendable. you dont need to belabor the point by changing 1c etc. i wish you good luck and hope your plays kill it, but you can see maybe why others are skeptical.
He's getting the hang of it.
Great, so we are on the same page then.
We can finally move on to baseball talk.
haha once again nailing the crux of it. +1 for giving me a good belly laugh.
- - - Updated - - -
we can - all baseball from here on. thanks.
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +$2.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30 AM Eastern Time):
Tigers (at +264 or 3.64) at A's
This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:
"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
Since Detroit overcame a four-run deficit yesterday and their money line today is indeed much greater than 1.5714, we are betting them. It's a long shot, but let's see how it plays out!
Have a good Saturday!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +$1.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Mets (at -220 or 1.455) vs Diamondbacks
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets
Since Arizona's five-game winning streak was just snapped yesterday, we are fading them today.
Good Monday all!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +$1.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets
Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +3.21$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Reds (at -143 or 1.70) at Mariners
This pick is based on "The Snapped Losing Streak" betting angle #2:
"Fade a team whose losing streak of length 4+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if they are at home, facing the same opponent and their money line is greater than 1.50."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +27.36 units from 388 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: +9.79 units from 27 bets (ROI = 36.3%)
Since Seattle just snapped their 6-game losing skid yesterday against those same Reds and they are playing at home, we are betting Cincy.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +2.21$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Rangers (at +143 or 2.43) vs Rays
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets
Since Tampa Bay got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night, we are betting against them today.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +3.64$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day is the strongest play by far since I've got 3 different betting angles pointing in their direction (odds from Pinnacle):
Dodgers (at -125 or 1.80) at Mets
This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" (system #2):
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.10 units from 61 bets (ROI = 1.8%)
Since the Mets crushed the D-Backs by a 10-run margin yesterday, we are betting against them today.
It is also based on the "Hot Teams Matchup" and "The Hot Bats" systems.
Enjoy your day!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +4.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Giants (at -215 or 1.465) vs Marlins
This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:
"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.72 units from 33 bets (ROI = 8.2%)
Since Miami has lost its past two games by scoring just 0 and 2 runs respectively, and they are fairly big road underdogs, we are betting against them.
Have a good Saturday!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 11
Profit = +3.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Padres (at +100 or 2.00) at Rockies
This play meets the criteria of 2 betting angles at a time. Under such circumstances, our ROI (Return On Investment) tripled in 2019 compared to the case where a pick met the criteria of a single betting strategy.
One of these two systems is called "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
Since San Diego is on the road and has lost its past two games by allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively, we are betting them this afternoon.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 12
Profit = +2.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Reds (at ) at Cubs
This play meets the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time, including the most lucrative in 2019 called "The Hot Bats":
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +33.64 units from 147 bets (ROI = 22.9%)
Since Chicago's last two games were both wins by scoring 16 and 14 runs respectively, we are fading them today.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Odds are at 2.50 or +250 at the moment on Pinnacle.
I appreciate your daily posts.
RECORD:
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +1.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
I'm gonna do something special today by providing 2 picks instead of just one. They both meet the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time!!! This has proven to triple the ROI in 2019.
Reds (at +141 or 2.41) at Cubs
Mets (at -143 or 1.699) at Rockies
One of the betting angles recommending these picks is called "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup":
"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +14.24 units from 121 bets (ROI = 11.8%)
Since Cincinnati has lost its last game while the Cubs are riding a 5-game winning streak, we are betting the Reds.
Also, considering the Mets have lost their past two games while the Rockies are on a 4-game winning streak, we are betting New York.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
"The Blowout" betting angle recommended to bet the Cubs on that day (September 15), but "The Hot Bats" and "The Pummeled Pitchers" suggested to bet the Pirates. Therefore, I stayed away from that game.
RECORD:
Bets won = 14
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +3.55$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Padres (at +135 or 2.35) at Brewers
This play is based on the same betting angle as yesterday: "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle:
Since San Diego is undergoing a 6-game losing streak while Milwaukee is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are going against the grain by betting the "cold" team: the Padres!
Best of luck!
Professor MJ