don't put yourself in the gambling hall of fame just yet pal.
good luck
Jets96 this miner has a positive spin here. The outs will remain plentiful. No normal BM will ever limit or shut the action off.
Here's another system that was suggested by SI many years ago. It was called the "Fat Cat System". The St.Louis Cardinals were having a poor year and were always losing on the 1st and the 15th of the month. That was payday for the players. The magazine suggested complacency. You don't wanna know how that ended do ya?
After riding a 5-game winning streak, we have lost our past 2. Let's get back on the winning track!
RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 4
Profit = +$3.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
White Sox (at +132 or 2.32) at Braves
This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
In 2019: -4.26 units from 42 bets
Since the White Sox have lost their past 2 games while allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively in those meetings, we are betting them to rebound in Atlanta. They also meet the criteria for betting based on their past 3 or 4 games.
NOTE: The White Sox also satisfy the betting angle called "The Hot Bats", which has been the most lucrative in 2019. The system plays have done even better when more than one system suggested betting a specific team (a ROI of 10%+ so far).
This pick is based on "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:
"Bet a road team coming off a win when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins.
This selection does not meet your parameters. Your 'students' gave you the wrong score with the Mets/Phl game Sunday night. Neris closed out the Mets for a 5-2 win. Pardon the pitcher reference. They mean nothing to you.
This selection does not meet your parameters. Your 'students' gave you the wrong score with the Mets/Phl game Sunday night. Neris closed out the Mets for a 5-2 win. Pardon the pitcher reference. They mean nothing to you.
Uh?? My students have nothing to do with this, what are you talking about?
I did a copy-paste of the wrong betting angle. It was "The Hot Bats", which claims you should fade a home team coming off 2 straight wins while scoring many runs in each meeting. That was the case.
Which is why I wrote the following to finish my post:
"Since Washington won its past two meetings by 9-3 and 7-0 scores, we are betting against them."
This is an intelligent betting forum. Your irrelevant data mining is insulting to any player with a clue. You are either a novice gambler, a rookie scammer, or a middle school French teacher. That's called the "Pick One System".
This is an intelligent betting forum. Your irrelevant data mining is insulting to any player with a clue. You are either a novice gambler, a rookie scammer, or a middle school French teacher. That's called the "Pick One System".
Ronbets--we've been on this board and others for a long time, and you know that I respect your opinion and experience in the gambling arena as much as I respect anyone on Betting Talk, but I think your comment here is the type of retort that drives posters away from the board and inhibits others from posting at all. Whether we believe his system for formulating his picks is valid or not, we should encourage opinions and posts from others, not drive them away with insulting rhetoric, like calling him "either a novice gambler, a rookie scammer, or a middle school French teacher". There's got to be a better way to question some one's posts than to be being outwardly insulting. Lord knows we could use more posters and opinions on the Betting Talk board.
Nice hit with the Mets last night. Let's keep rolling!
RECORD:
Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$3.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Marlins (at +154 or 2.54) at Pirates
This is definitely the most promising pick for today because it meets the criteria of 4 different betting systems.
One of them is "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle.
"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +7.07 units from 103 bets (ROI = 6.9%)
Since Miami is undergoing a 3-game losing streak while Pittsburgh is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting the Pirates (according to the strategy described above).
Nice hit with the Mets last night. Let's keep rolling!
RECORD:
Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$3.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Marlins (at +154 or 2.54) at Pirates
This is definitely the most promising pick for today because it meets the criteria of 4 different betting systems.
One of them is "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle.
"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +7.07 units from 103 bets (ROI = 6.9%)
Since Miami is undergoing a 3-game losing streak while Pittsburgh is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting the Pirates (according to the strategy described above).
Have a great day!
Professor MJ
Sorry abou the typo at the end of my message, it should be "we are betting the MARLINS"
This board is like a small community. Like any other place various ppl clash. That's OK even healthy at times. When you have an alleged math guru enter your clubhouse and immediately break the rules, who calls him out? If you allow this BS to prevail this place edges closer to TheRx II.
Minger and other followers heed, "no action is better than bad action." This Pied Piper will bury you.
Btw teacher, the Met bet should be graded NO ACTION due to your error.
I think it would be a mess here if people just posted picks all day especially on some system type plays, I like the idea of people posting picks but I also think if you are going to post picks you should have the fortitude to defend your angles and explain them if asked.
I think it would be a mess here if people just posted picks all day especially on some system type plays, I like the idea of people posting picks but I also think if you are going to post picks you should have the fortitude to defend your angles and explain them if asked.
I would, but I can see clearly that some posters will be quick to attack me whatever I say.
Right from my very first post I was called out about the odds ("where did you get such odds, at walmart??"). I showed evidence that those were indeed the odds with Pinnacle (as shown on Covers.com). Obviously that guy didn't apologize, and instead just kept whining about my posts. So I figured I would just keep posting and ignore the comments.
I'm sure there are many readers that find it interesting, who don't necessarily express their opinions (they just like to read and don't post, and that's okay).
So if you don't mind I'll keep my daily posts and will ignore the attacks. If someone has a question and does it respectfully, I'll be happy to answer it.
And if "just posting picks" is not something that's allowed, then so be it and I'll stop. It's not like there weren't any other forums to do so.
I would, but I can see clearly that some posters will be quick to attack me whatever I say.
Right from my very first post I was called out about the odds ("where did you get such odds, at walmart??"). I showed evidence that those were indeed the odds with Pinnacle (as shown on Covers.com). Obviously that guy didn't apologize, and instead just kept whining about my posts. So I figured I would just keep posting and ignore the comments.
I'm sure there are many readers that find it interesting, who don't necessarily express their opinions (they just like to read and don't post, and that's okay).
So if you don't mind I'll keep my daily posts and will ignore the attacks. If someone has a question and does it respectfully, I'll be happy to answer it.
And if "just posting picks" is not something that's allowed, then so be it and I'll stop. It's not like there weren't any other forums to do so.
Thanks for your understanding.
the forum has guidelines for posting picks. dont be thin skinned if you believe in your system plays just defend them or even the methodology. I think the forum here is some older bettors who believe there are very few ways to win and which I do generally agree with that. I would say post on and if someone wants to discuss the data mining you should be open to discussing it. or you can simply just post your plays and not reply to anything you dont want to. best of luck and my 2 cents is if you throw 100000 straws on the ground of 5 colors tons of patterns will show up that can look significant because of the sample size but really dont mean anything.
I would suggest if you are going to data mine, you need to meet a few of the old criteria
do your plays
overall beat the line or at least get some form of market confirmation of the play
have enough volume to actually to see if your results are lucky or are significant
have some method to know when that edge is gone before bankruptcy court
If you can meet the above criteria with your plays you MIGHT have a long term chance because here most people are looking for long term solutions not a few plays
the forum has guidelines for posting picks. dont be thin skinned if you believe in your system plays just defend them or even the methodology. I think the forum here is some older bettors who believe there are very few ways to win and which I do generally agree with that. I would say post on and if someone wants to discuss the data mining you should be open to discussing it. or you can simply just post your plays and not reply to anything you dont want to. best of luck and my 2 cents is if you throw 100000 straws on the ground of 5 colors tons of patterns will show up that can look significant because of the sample size but really dont mean anything.
I would suggest if you are going to data mine, you need to meet a few of the old criteria
do your plays
overall beat the line or at least get some form of market confirmation of the play
have enough volume to actually to see if your results are lucky or are significant
have some method to know when that edge is gone before bankruptcy court
If you can meet the above criteria with your plays you MIGHT have a long term chance because here most people are looking for long term solutions not a few plays
All right, I'll give some explanations but I won't spend an hour justifying what I do every day.
First of all, if some people don't believe in that kind of stuff, I'm totally fine with it. Just move on to the next thread. I don't have a problem with that at all. I don't understand how some people will just keep coming back to mention they hate it. Hey, I hate figure skating and guess what, I don't watch it.
Secondly, here is my general view. I do agree that past trends may not repeat themselves again in the future. BUT, the way I see it is if a trend goes in accordance with my initial intuition (BEFORE I looked at the results), then I do tend to believe it.
Here is an example: my belief is that most bettors overreact to recent results. Based on this philosophy, I was expecting that if a team undergoing a losing streak is facing a team riding a winning streak, we would be better off putting our money on the team that has been doing badly recently. Why? Simply because the general public will pound on the "hot" team, and therefore artificially inflate the money line on their opponent.
So I looked at what happened in the past when a team on a losing streak was facing a team on a winning streak. All of the details (including numbers) can be found in my very long blog post on my website, but we ended up with the following betting strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 1+ loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ wins"
That was the most profitable strategy under this setting. I looked at the results depending on the LENGTH of the losing and winning streaks. I also broke it down as a function of the location of the game ("The Road/Home Split"). I broke it down as a fuction of the money line ("The Odds Split"). And then I verified if this betting angle did well across all 7 seasons in my dataset.
Since this betting strategy totally agrees with my initial intuition, I am using it with my daily plays.
The same concept applies to all of my betting strategies. I've got all the details in my blog posts, but obviously am not going to copy-paste the full explanations with respect to each betting angle every day.
Maybe some people it's just stupid and won't work. That's okay. All I know is I've been using it and it has done very well (I can't post past non-BettingTalk record here so I won't).
I hope that clarifies things for the future.
- - - Updated - - -
Nice upset win by the Marlins in Pittsburgh last night!
Miguel Rojas homered to tie the game up when Miami was down to its final out.
Then, Garrett Cooper delivered the game-winning homerun in extra innings. Good job!
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$5.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Nationals (at -120 or 1.833) vs Mets
This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:
"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
In 2019 (not good thus far, but small sample size): -5.41 units from 38 bets
Since Washington overcame a 6-run deficit in the 9th inning yesterday, we are betting them.
I wish you would come to my thread and we can discuss it because people might want to use your pick thread to get alerts when you make picks, no one follows my thread like that for picks.
if you want to discuss further come to the danshan thread and we can talk it out, could help you, me and the whole community. I wont post here again about my thoughts on the matter and you are 100% welcome to my thread if you desire to discuss further
Im not getting involved in this, but just looking at your pic today for the Washington nationals, your reasoning is to take them because they had a come back, but you also say only if the money line is -175+, yet its only -120 (-125 now)?
Im not getting involved in this, but just looking at your pic today for the Washington nationals, your reasoning is to take them because they had a come back, but you also say only if the money line is -175+, yet its only -120 (-125 now)?
It says greater than 1.5714 in decimal format; in this case 1.833 which is indeed greater. We want to avoid huge favorites basically.
In American format it means -175 or -174 or -173 or... etc
I wish you would come to my thread and we can discuss it because people might want to use your pick thread to get alerts when you make picks, no one follows my thread like that for picks.
if you want to discuss further come to the danshan thread and we can talk it out, could help you, me and the whole community. I wont post here again about my thoughts on the matter and you are 100% welcome to my thread if you desire to discuss further
There is not much to discuss here. ProfessorMJ is playing three dimensional chess here. If we give him the benefit of the doubt, he is betting here on angles that are unrecognized in the market. As such, there is no reason to believe that CLV would have any relevance relating to his picks because CLV is based on factors that are recognized in the market.
ProfessorMJ's picks are truly unique and if a winner worth the $40 he charges. He can only provide a record of such picks which is not allowed at BT and these angles are untested by mankind except for ProfessorMJ who seems to be going on faith and some man hours researching..
You are very welcome! I always wondered I should say "-175 or greater" or "-175 or less" if I want to specify that I wish to stay away from big favorites.
It seems clearer in decimal format (1.5714 or greater).
Right from my very first post I was called out about the odds ("where did you get such odds, at walmart??"). I showed evidence that those were indeed the odds with Pinnacle (as shown on Covers.com). Obviously that guy didn't apologize, and instead just kept whining about my posts.
Teacher, you posted a line that was 3 hours stale and 20cents to your benefit. Read the rules before coming on the scene with utter noise.
At around 8:35am the line was -135 on the Mets (therefore +125 on the Indians).
You may want to argue "yeah but you posted later than this". Sure. But that's still the time where I checked the odds. It takes time to shoot a video, edit it, post it on several websites, then do a write up and also post it on different websites.
I don't get people's agressiveness right off the bat. Could you simply not kindly ask instead of making such silly comments? How hard is that? People lose respect for others as soon as they can hide behind a screen.
- - - Updated - - -
You are right! But like I said in the introduction, I am only going to present one pick each day.
And by the way the Marlins did not turn out to be a play because the Braves met the criteria of another betting angle called "The Scoring Drought".
- - - Updated - - -
I'm officially on tilt.
From using my 19 betting strategies, we have experienced winnings in April, May, June and July.
Now that I decided to run this series of "Free Pick of the Day" in August, that's when the losing got started.
We are down roughly 10 units in August. Since the start of 2019, we are still up by 30 units, but this losing skid is pissing me off.
RECORD:
Bets won = 0
Bets lost = 1
Profit = -$1.00 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day:
Indians (at -180 or 1.556) vs Royals
(based on the high level of agressivement on this forum, I wonder if I should post a screen shot of Pinnacle.com. It went down to -177 a few minutes ago, now +181)
This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:
"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.88 units from 30 bets (ROI = 9.6%)
Since the Royals have lost their past two games by scoring just one run in each meeting (8-1 and 4-1) and they are indeed on the road with a money line above 2.50, we are betting the Indians.
Have a good weekend!
Professor MJ
against my better judgement i am going to jump in here:
1) https://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/141378 - specifically 1. Use lines available at either Pinnacle, BetOnline, or Bookmaker* AT THE TIME OF YOUR POST. If you got a better line earlier but could not post it, either use the current line or pass on posting that game.
the rationale is it does no one any good to post a line that is already gone. you are working with hindsight which is obviously not available to anyone and the price no longer exists. it is akin to betting a game after a team is already winning.
even if you disagree, it is a rule to post/recordkeep here and while some of the posters can be ornery and difficult, that one is a good rule and there is no excuse not to follow it. quite simply, whether you acknowledge/understand it or not, it is cheating.
Comments
Jets96 this miner has a positive spin here. The outs will remain plentiful. No normal BM will ever limit or shut the action off.
Here's another system that was suggested by SI many years ago. It was called the "Fat Cat System". The St.Louis Cardinals were having a poor year and were always losing on the 1st and the 15th of the month. That was payday for the players. The magazine suggested complacency. You don't wanna know how that ended do ya?
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]team = Yankees and day = Wednesday[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
259-146 (1.22, 64.0%)
avg line: -150.0 / 134.9
on / against: +$5,582 / -$7,688
ROI: +8.9% / -17.7%
</tbody>
</tbody>
Damn Dan, why didn't you post this earlier?:sad:
RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 3
Profit = +$4.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
White Sox (at +183 or 2.83) at Braves
This pick is based on "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +34.82 units from 136 bets (ROI = 25.6%)
Since the Braves has won their past two games by scoring 10 and 9 runs respectively, we are betting the White Sox.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 4
Profit = +$3.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
White Sox (at +132 or 2.32) at Braves
This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
In 2019: -4.26 units from 42 bets
Since the White Sox have lost their past 2 games while allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively in those meetings, we are betting them to rebound in Atlanta. They also meet the criteria for betting based on their past 3 or 4 games.
NOTE: The White Sox also satisfy the betting angle called "The Hot Bats", which has been the most lucrative in 2019. The system plays have done even better when more than one system suggested betting a specific team (a ROI of 10%+ so far).
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$2.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Mets (at -108 or 1.926) at Nationals
This pick is based on "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:
"Bet a road team coming off a win when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +10.57 units from 163 bets (ROI = 6.5%)
In 2019: +34.82 units from 136 bets (ROI = 25.6%)
Since Washington won its past two meetings by 9-3 and 7-0 scores, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
This selection does not meet your parameters. Your 'students' gave you the wrong score with the Mets/Phl game Sunday night. Neris closed out the Mets for a 5-2 win. Pardon the pitcher reference. They mean nothing to you.
Uh?? My students have nothing to do with this, what are you talking about?
I did a copy-paste of the wrong betting angle. It was "The Hot Bats", which claims you should fade a home team coming off 2 straight wins while scoring many runs in each meeting. That was the case.
Which is why I wrote the following to finish my post:
"Since Washington won its past two meetings by 9-3 and 7-0 scores, we are betting against them."
Ronbets--we've been on this board and others for a long time, and you know that I respect your opinion and experience in the gambling arena as much as I respect anyone on Betting Talk, but I think your comment here is the type of retort that drives posters away from the board and inhibits others from posting at all. Whether we believe his system for formulating his picks is valid or not, we should encourage opinions and posts from others, not drive them away with insulting rhetoric, like calling him "either a novice gambler, a rookie scammer, or a middle school French teacher". There's got to be a better way to question some one's posts than to be being outwardly insulting. Lord knows we could use more posters and opinions on the Betting Talk board.
RECORD:
Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$3.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Marlins (at +154 or 2.54) at Pirates
This is definitely the most promising pick for today because it meets the criteria of 4 different betting systems.
One of them is "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle.
"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +7.07 units from 103 bets (ROI = 6.9%)
Since Miami is undergoing a 3-game losing streak while Pittsburgh is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting the Pirates (according to the strategy described above).
Have a great day!
Professor MJ
Sorry abou the typo at the end of my message, it should be "we are betting the MARLINS"
Minger and other followers heed, "no action is better than bad action." This Pied Piper will bury you.
Btw teacher, the Met bet should be graded NO ACTION due to your error.
I would, but I can see clearly that some posters will be quick to attack me whatever I say.
Right from my very first post I was called out about the odds ("where did you get such odds, at walmart??"). I showed evidence that those were indeed the odds with Pinnacle (as shown on Covers.com). Obviously that guy didn't apologize, and instead just kept whining about my posts. So I figured I would just keep posting and ignore the comments.
I'm sure there are many readers that find it interesting, who don't necessarily express their opinions (they just like to read and don't post, and that's okay).
So if you don't mind I'll keep my daily posts and will ignore the attacks. If someone has a question and does it respectfully, I'll be happy to answer it.
And if "just posting picks" is not something that's allowed, then so be it and I'll stop. It's not like there weren't any other forums to do so.
Thanks for your understanding.
the forum has guidelines for posting picks. dont be thin skinned if you believe in your system plays just defend them or even the methodology. I think the forum here is some older bettors who believe there are very few ways to win and which I do generally agree with that. I would say post on and if someone wants to discuss the data mining you should be open to discussing it. or you can simply just post your plays and not reply to anything you dont want to. best of luck and my 2 cents is if you throw 100000 straws on the ground of 5 colors tons of patterns will show up that can look significant because of the sample size but really dont mean anything.
I would suggest if you are going to data mine, you need to meet a few of the old criteria
do your plays
overall beat the line or at least get some form of market confirmation of the play
have enough volume to actually to see if your results are lucky or are significant
have some method to know when that edge is gone before bankruptcy court
If you can meet the above criteria with your plays you MIGHT have a long term chance because here most people are looking for long term solutions not a few plays
All right, I'll give some explanations but I won't spend an hour justifying what I do every day.
First of all, if some people don't believe in that kind of stuff, I'm totally fine with it. Just move on to the next thread. I don't have a problem with that at all. I don't understand how some people will just keep coming back to mention they hate it. Hey, I hate figure skating and guess what, I don't watch it.
Secondly, here is my general view. I do agree that past trends may not repeat themselves again in the future. BUT, the way I see it is if a trend goes in accordance with my initial intuition (BEFORE I looked at the results), then I do tend to believe it.
Here is an example: my belief is that most bettors overreact to recent results. Based on this philosophy, I was expecting that if a team undergoing a losing streak is facing a team riding a winning streak, we would be better off putting our money on the team that has been doing badly recently. Why? Simply because the general public will pound on the "hot" team, and therefore artificially inflate the money line on their opponent.
So I looked at what happened in the past when a team on a losing streak was facing a team on a winning streak. All of the details (including numbers) can be found in my very long blog post on my website, but we ended up with the following betting strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 1+ loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ wins"
That was the most profitable strategy under this setting. I looked at the results depending on the LENGTH of the losing and winning streaks. I also broke it down as a function of the location of the game ("The Road/Home Split"). I broke it down as a fuction of the money line ("The Odds Split"). And then I verified if this betting angle did well across all 7 seasons in my dataset.
Since this betting strategy totally agrees with my initial intuition, I am using it with my daily plays.
The same concept applies to all of my betting strategies. I've got all the details in my blog posts, but obviously am not going to copy-paste the full explanations with respect to each betting angle every day.
Maybe some people it's just stupid and won't work. That's okay. All I know is I've been using it and it has done very well (I can't post past non-BettingTalk record here so I won't).
I hope that clarifies things for the future.
- - - Updated - - -
Nice upset win by the Marlins in Pittsburgh last night!
Miguel Rojas homered to tie the game up when Miami was down to its final out.
Then, Garrett Cooper delivered the game-winning homerun in extra innings. Good job!
RECORD:
Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 5
Profit = +$5.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):
Nationals (at -120 or 1.833) vs Mets
This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:
"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
In 2019 (not good thus far, but small sample size): -5.41 units from 38 bets
Since Washington overcame a 6-run deficit in the 9th inning yesterday, we are betting them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
if you want to discuss further come to the danshan thread and we can talk it out, could help you, me and the whole community. I wont post here again about my thoughts on the matter and you are 100% welcome to my thread if you desire to discuss further
It says greater than 1.5714 in decimal format; in this case 1.833 which is indeed greater. We want to avoid huge favorites basically.
In American format it means -175 or -174 or -173 or... etc
There is not much to discuss here. ProfessorMJ is playing three dimensional chess here. If we give him the benefit of the doubt, he is betting here on angles that are unrecognized in the market. As such, there is no reason to believe that CLV would have any relevance relating to his picks because CLV is based on factors that are recognized in the market.
ProfessorMJ's picks are truly unique and if a winner worth the $40 he charges. He can only provide a record of such picks which is not allowed at BT and these angles are untested by mankind except for ProfessorMJ who seems to be going on faith and some man hours researching..
You are very welcome! I always wondered I should say "-175 or greater" or "-175 or less" if I want to specify that I wish to stay away from big favorites.
It seems clearer in decimal format (1.5714 or greater).
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Thanks for the refreshing comments! I appreciate your interest. Have a good day R40!
Teacher, you posted a line that was 3 hours stale and 20cents to your benefit. Read the rules before coming on the scene with utter noise.
I love you too my friend!
Nice response. No rebuttal? Glad I opted to Uncle Sam than skate out as a Nordique. Different breed I guess.
against my better judgement i am going to jump in here:
1) https://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/141378 - specifically 1. Use lines available at either Pinnacle, BetOnline, or Bookmaker* AT THE TIME OF YOUR POST. If you got a better line earlier but could not post it, either use the current line or pass on posting that game.
the rationale is it does no one any good to post a line that is already gone. you are working with hindsight which is obviously not available to anyone and the price no longer exists. it is akin to betting a game after a team is already winning.
even if you disagree, it is a rule to post/recordkeep here and while some of the posters can be ornery and difficult, that one is a good rule and there is no excuse not to follow it. quite simply, whether you acknowledge/understand it or not, it is cheating.