Betting Talk

Bloomberg article on new tout service

2

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    LOL, they have had a rough go of it lately.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Listened to Bet The Process podcast about them today. Apparently he just hired a bunch of math geeks with no experience. I'd rate his chances at even lower than I expected.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    really I thought he had said, they were all MLB NBA and NFL former team executives who did analytics for the teams?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    really I thought he had said, they were all MLB NBA and NFL former team executives who did analytics for the teams?

    I guess most of them were. Sabermetric guys from team organizations. Pretty much the same thing with a little more potential. Definitely explains their volume.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    what volume?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    what volume?

    The number of bets they put out. They don't what they are doing.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    oh sorry I get it now, they put out 50 picks a week. that is nuts I cant imagine there truly is value in that many plays in a week in the major markets but who knows definitely not me. Lets just say I took the under on Jambos LOL
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    oh sorry I get it now, they put out 50 picks a week. that is nuts I cant imagine there truly is value in that many plays in a week in the major markets but who knows definitely not me. Lets just say I took the under on Jambos LOL

    The bet should be on if they have to pay out $10,000.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    i think we know the answer to that one already!

    that would be like will the sun rise tomorrow about the same odds!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    i think we know the answer to that one already!

    that would be like will the sun rise tomorrow about the same odds!

    Yeah, but the scammer might put some money on it.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    danshan wrote: »

    LOSE
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    no one was interested, I guess people did not have an opinion on whether they would win or lose this coming week
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Or care.
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Any update out of curiosity on how this guy did?

    found on twitter


    spanky
    @spanky
    Replying to
    @JambosPicks
    Congrats on making a comeback. I never bet any of your plays. I bet you couldn't do it and I lost 3k.

    If anyone rode you guys out:
    1,723 plays @ $300/play = $516,900
    Up 10.74 units = $3,222
    After fees, profit is $222.
    ROI = .043%
    You were down 48.82 units (-$14,646) on 11/22
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Wow, they rallied back from -42 units in CBB to break even. Lost 16 units on college football. Up 13 with NFL. I think they made a few units on MLB to break even.

    If Spanky lost 3K, at least some good came of it.

    They will lose going forward. They are riding some major positive variance.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Actually a somewhat impressive performance on such high volume. They might actually be decent at MLB. They seem to be probably break even at CBB. They have the potential to be break even at CFB. They got lucky on NFL and will lose there. They seem to have a bit of an edge but only break even.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    nothing that I have reviewed shows me they have an edge, 1k games is nothing

    - - - Updated - - -

    did you read the 2nd funniest thing I ever read on twitter, this was written by Schwimer about a week ago

    Selling picks for 18 weeks and are +19.23 units. All 1 unit picks, all against BetCris line at time of release. Unfortunately, pros/books have subscribed and built bots that move lines on release. We will have to stop selling picks very soon as not in best interest of subs.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    That was close call on that bet you offered him.

    It is pretty tough to break even on that volume. I think they have some edge. Probably not all of their past performance was data mining. They had some reason to believe they were profitable and they kept their head above water. If they had any idea of how to gamble, they might even be pretty good on some sports.

    He apparently has a bright bunch with a decent model.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    If Spanky lost 3K, at least some good came of it.

    Why the knock on a player advocate?..........Regardless of a high octane ego.
    Personal?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Players advocate, WHAT?
    Spanky prays on dumbasses that let him use their accounts until they are banned and he moves on to the next sucker. How is that a players advocate? Are we talking about the same person here?

    Jambos has announced they will not sell picks anymore, they have quit because they are smarter than the books and the books are now making their lines using Jambos's data, LMAO!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Maybe I am getting people confused but I thought Spanky was the guy that bets lines down on market maker accounts so the lines move and then he uses sucker bettors to bet those bad lines at books that just copy lines and of course after a few plays the books limit or close the suckers' account

    4th div basketball
    he bets at market makers to move the line from -120 to +140 and then once the copy cat soft books move to that number he uses sucker accounts to buy the crap out of those. I am sure books are real happy and love having this activity from their customers.

    or am I talking about someone else, I might be, I am not 100% sure

    - - - Updated - - -
    R40 wrote: »
    That was close call on that bet you offered him.

    It is pretty tough to break even on that volume. I think they have some edge. Probably not all of their past performance was data mining. They had some reason to believe they were profitable and they kept their head above water. If they had any idea of how to gamble, they might even be pretty good on some sports.

    He apparently has a bright bunch with a decent model.

    yeah they had a super hot streak at the end of the road and barely made it to not have to give the discount.
    they never had consistent market confirmation on their plays and the plays at best seemed coin toss type picks to me. I think a 1000 plays and breaking even is a good thing but I would not say they are talented or have an edge in any way shape or form.

    - - - Updated - - -

    and those 19 units they were up are all gone now, they are now back to below 0 units at this moment.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://jambospicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019-JAMBOS-YE-Review.pdf

    letter from Jambos
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Why the knock on a player advocate?..........Regardless of a high octane ego.
    Personal?

    Lets just say Spanky has some scam in him.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    It would probably be better to say they have a level of skill rather than an edge.

    They did have a hot streak but they also experienced some really bad luck like starting off -42 units right off the bat with CBB and having a losing CFB year. I think the results were probably reflective of their ability.

    The guy is a good salesman. He knows he is not going to sell picks with a 52% winning percentage and is going to close up with a winning record coming off a hot streak that soon went cold. He can now offer up that he is sharp to any potential private clientele or provide acknowledgement to the non-"5% of the business."
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Danshan, his objective is to extract $$ from bookmakers whether private or corporate. Unscrupulous methods? Yeah. Both sides are gray. I like his calling out legal stateside books. Example, their refusal to book a good-sized bet and then using the info to adjust their line.

    Is line manipulation bad when the outfit that clones(plagiarizes) it free of charge? I think the latter is the sinner.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Danshan, his objective is to extract $$ from bookmakers whether private or corporate. Unscrupulous methods? Yeah. Both sides are gray. I like his calling out legal stateside books. Example, their refusal to book a good-sized bet and then using the info to adjust their line.

    Is line manipulation bad when the outfit that clones(plagiarizes) it free of charge? I think the latter is the sinner.

    Spanky makes a big deal of going into books and getting kicked out because he knows it is going to give him publicity. It is part of the con. He goes in there knowing it is an opportunity to make him look better than he is.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I really dont care if he screws over some books TBH but when you call people investors and in reality you are just screwing their account, I think that is flat wrong maybe even criminal.
    Sports betting is about modeling a fair line and beating the market not some fluff and sell crap, that is sad and to call books out for trying to stop this shit is pathetic.

    Books dont want action from bettors
    who every bet they make is on a game that the line went from -120 to +150 and they buy in every time at +150 and it closes an hour later back toward -120, this is blatant fraud and in the stock market you would get time for this type of activity ( not saying it does not happen though)

    - - - Updated - - -
    R40 wrote: »
    Spanky makes a big deal of going into books and getting kicked out because he knows it is going to give him publicity. It is part of the con. He goes in there knowing it is an opportunity to make him look better than he is.

    of course they kick you out when you max bet and every time you bet its on a game that opened -120 moved to +150 and closed at -115 and you always get it at +150, LMAO

    - - - Updated - - -

    another thing Ron is the reality that the honest bettor pays for this activity not the book.
    someone steals from walmart me and you pay for it next time we shop not walmart, we pay for it in higher prices on other things and the heightened security and delays we face because of these criminals.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Spanky makes a big deal of going into books and getting kicked out because he knows it is going to give him publicity. It is part of the con. He goes in there knowing it is an opportunity to make him look better than he is.

    I think the point you're overlooking is the fact they fear his business.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    I think the point you're overlooking is the fact they fear his business.

    I guess the point you are overlooking is that Spanky started his twitter account as "spankysports."
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    I guess the point you are overlooking is that Spanky started his twitter account as "spankysports."

    Don't get your post. R U implying he was a tout service? He's more anti-tout than myself.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Don't get your post. R U implying he was a tout service? He's more anti-tout than myself.

    That is generally why you call yourself xxxxsports.

    Have you ever listened to Spanky get interviewed? Bizarre stuff.
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