Presidential Election Odds
crash
Member
Every time Trump gets embroiled in another scandal, I check the odds. They barely move. He has slipped from 4-5 to even money but it's still mind boggling. Clearly, if the Dems had a good candidate, they could win this thing. But with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden at the lowest odds, it shows you why the odds what they are. I thought that Trump had no shot in 2016 so what do I know? BTW, my longshot play is Mike Pence at 125-1. If Trump were to drop dead, there would be a clear path for Pence. Thoughts?
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The Dems on the other hand are playing into his hand. They are too scared to put up anyone that will win because they are afraid of losing.
I dont think this is true. Morning Consult does a tracking poll and has found that Trump's approval rating has fallen in each of the 50 states since he was elected. The biggest drop is in Florida where his "net favorability" has dropped by 25 points, followed by the surprise states he won: Michigan, Wisconsin, PA. Turnout is important, of course, but people vote for all sorts of different reasons, and Trump has lost ground since 2016.
Note: here 25% really means 12.5%, switched from approve to disapprove. A big number in a state like Florida that he won by 1%.
I agree, Pence would not be an attractive general election candidate, but as an incumbent he couldnt be longer than like 4-1 if he got the nomination.
I think there are so many high quality and well-funded candidates on the Democratic side and the nature of their primaries (front-loaded, and unlike the GOP, they are all "proportional") and the change in superdelegates (not allowed to vote on the first convention ballot) that we will have a brokered convention. I've been trying to figure out how to play this.
1. Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey have the stratospheric favorability ratings and intersectional demographics to get drafted into service to run for President and be immediately favored to win.
2. Elizabeth Warren is a natural compromise candidate - acceptable to the Bernies and the Bidens and the subset of Kamala voters who gave her their vote because she's a woman. I got a bundle down at 12-1 for the nomination and 26-1 in the general. But current odds of 4-1 and 8-1 for these bets aren't super attractive, I'd love to see her polls dip and jump in for more.
Any idea how I can get money on an Oprah bet down at 300-1? Of my online spots I only see her at a ridiculous 30-1. Traveling in Europe soon so I was hoping a brick-and-mortar shop might take my money.