Betting Talk

danshan thread

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I have no idea about a post fairlay makes
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Well you seem to represent them lately.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/FairlayPM/status/1228407845621768193
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I dont work for fairlay but you can ask them via twitter or directly on fairlay chatbox, I can ask them if you want me to

    they posted one of your picks on twitter, it seems like a compliment. I would be excited if they posted mine!!!

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    they said to contact them if you want them to remove it

    https://imgur.com/a/rQ09XDn

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    they just deleted its not there now, they did not reply back I think they just decided to delete it

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    i have been in direct contact with the app I made but I do not work or even know who owns or operates fairlay

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    I do got some pull, LOL they removed it instantly as soon as I told them LOL
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    They could simply ask before they post my name to something....but i guess this is the interwebs. Thanks
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    your focused on the wrong thing, focus on the important thing, the amount of pull I have there, LOL

    its gone no harm no foul and honestly I would be honored if they put up my picks!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    why in the fucking world would they post a pick from cajaun, are you kidding me.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    he had a coronary so they removed it. they had posted a bunch of picks from different people on twitter and I guess his was one of them. he thought posting on the internet was anonymous anyway I used my pull (important part) and got it deleted, LOL
  • AdminAdmin Administrator
    edited February 2020
    Admin - is this site now linked with fairlay and twitter?

    Nope.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Ok so some interesting stats on the parlay app

    I had 116 parlays
    avg line -340 should win 77%
    My win % 76%

    I allowed some correlated NHL parlays cause I wanted to see how they would do
    avg line -261 should win 72%
    My win % 49%
    I guess if you can do correlated parlays you really need to

    1st day of NBA parlays, super curious how it will work out

    and again if anyone can check out the app and give me suggestions or feedback that would be awesome, thanks
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I am adding NOWmoneylines for all sportsworking on adding 1st quarter and 1st half bets Soccerright now you can straight bet and parlay all major US sports NHL, NBA, NFL, XFL, TennisI will keep you posted!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    guys help me out

    had a friend last night text me at 857 CT and ask if I wanted to bet him on the Pelicans game
    I said its already started he said no. I said ok cool sure reply if you will take LA and how much before it starts
    his reply at 918 CT was I will take the lakers
    I replied at 921 too late dude, the game started at 916
    he was like no the game started at 919
    where or how can we know when it really started?

    like an actual game log for NBA games or something
    nba.com shows started at 9ET and I know that is not true
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Sorry, I had trouble with that last night myself. But I suspect it started well before 9:19. I remember because I expected it to start at around 9:15 but the tv/tnt was just showing commercials. Because of the commercials, my first assumption was that the game hadn’t started yet, but then I noticed on the ESPN scoreboard the Lakers were already up 3-0...wish I had a way you could verify, but can’t find anything myself...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    yeah I really think there has to be some actual start time recorded somewhere
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Man, this is a tough one. I'm afraid you might have to pay it. Game was featured on TNT. Little over 3minutes into game Lakers by 10. Depending on the size of wager would be my route of aggressiveness for off-time. Is the guy noted for nefarious shit? Try contacting Staple Center or TNT to pursue.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I want to be fair but not get screwed if we can see some official scorers card or something it has to have actual tipoff time

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    he is fair and wants to call it a push but I am not willing to call it a push if it had not started

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    FYI sorry folks my app is down for the next couple hours working on adding MLB and moneylines for college hoops
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Ok Moneylines have been added to the parlay app for Tennis, NHL, and NCAAB. you can now place straight bets or parlays.more choices!!! https://jgexchange.com/parlay.html
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    There is a big difference between a week off in hard hitting football and that meaning some point changes and picking a team with a goalie that gave up 2 against an opponent that did not score more than 3 in the last 4 games

    you data mine easily

    step 1
    pick Away or fave
    whichever has higher win %
    now pick previous win or loss
    whichever has higher win %
    now pick game before previous win or loss

    and here is the amazing results

    <form action="https://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query"><input type="text" name="sdql" id="sdql" size="120" value="A and F and p:W and pp:L and ppp:W and pppp:L and ppppp:L" style="font-size: 1em;">
    <input type="submit" name="submit" size="60" value=" S D Q L ! "></form>


    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]A and F and p:W and pp:L and ppp:W and pppp:L and ppppp:L[/TH]



    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
    75-30 (0.87, 71.4%)
    avg line: -135.8 / 121.2
    on / against: +$3,600 / -$3,992
    ROI: +25.2% / -37.8%


    [TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
    55-44-6 (0.55, 55.6%)
    avg total: 5.5

    </tbody>


    </tbody>

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    so if a team is on the road and a favorite and won their previous game, Lost the game before that and won the game before that and lost the 2 before that

    they are 75-30 with a 25% ROI


    now why is this a good bet well here you go
    teams on the road as favorites are obviously better than their opponent and if they won their last game they are hot and if they lost the game before that the next win gave them confidence and the Win before that made them feel like that one loss was just a bump in the road and the last 2 losses before all that created anger so now they got upset and started playing hard

    NOW IF THAT IS NOT COMPLETE BULLSHIT, I DONT KNOW WHAT IS

    beating the sdql is simple
    choose H or A
    choose D or F
    keep adding stuff until you get something that looks cool.

    do you really think that shit is gonna win?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    what in gods name are you talking about
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    LOL, I literally damn near wrote a book of what it is!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    danshan wrote: »

    do you really think that shit is gonna win?

    It only matters that Professor MJ thinks it can win. He thinks it will win and he has done the research and he is providing the picks based on that basis. At this time, he has the best pick thread going second to mine but I quit.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    whats your point

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    not you r40 , danny boy
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I was just saying how easy it is to create a winning sdql with complete garbage and how you can write some nonsense that justifies it
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    "Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."

    This is not a strategy that would seem that outrageous. A team struggling to score and now on the road. It basically a contrarian strategy which seems to be most of his angles from what I have seen. It is possible that contrarian strategies might have some value.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    why not < 2 goals in previous 2?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    danshan wrote: »
    why not < 2 goals in previous 2?

    It seems like a good one. Professor might check that one out and get back with us.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    because 3 is the magic # that gives a good ROI, 4 doesnt 2 doesnt it has to be 3 or the ROI sucks

    its right or left
    black or white
    green or red
    until you get something good
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    It's possible. His angles are basically a team has been hot or a team has been cold and now the line is such and such so bet against because the market will be overvalued based on recent play.

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    danshan wrote: »
    because 3 is the magic # that gives a good ROI, 4 doesnt 2 doesnt it has to be 3 or the ROI sucks

    its right or left
    black or white
    green or red
    until you get something good

    That is not really the case. He is setting 3 as a parameter and applying three or lower. He is not just overlooking 2. He is including it. Presumably, two would provide a better angle but a smaller dataset.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    you really dont believe that do you?

    my gosh
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    It does not matter if I believe it or not. It only matters that Professor MJ believes and he has done the work and provided the picks and so far they have won much to your and Ronbets consternation.
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