<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
My Ln
7/10
Conn
Sun
-7.5
7/10
Atla
Dream
153.5
7/10
Phoe
Mercury
156.5
7/10
Wash
Mystics
-10
7/10
Las
Aces
-6.5
7/10
Indi
Fever
157.5
7/10
Minn
Lynx
156.5
7/10
Chic
Sky
-1
</tbody>
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I will wait for BOL and Pinnacle to come out before I bet, seems like Bovada has lines out, that is crazy early.
7-10
Bernard Tomic -6 -112, its a steal at -112 I think it will close closer to -140, not sure what caused it to drop off so much but that line I HOPE will move back
they cant miss a three, they are shooting lights out. I would live bet the heck out of the Sun. I think it should start to get narrower as the on fire meter comes back to earth! mother&*^*%%^
I cant believe people do this
Player Scored avg 12 pts last 10 games
so if the over under for that player is <>9, they take the over and when it loses they say how, look at his last 10 game average.
I mean can you really believe it is that simple to win?
I really just dont get how you think that actually is a "make a bet" scenario on that fact as the majority of your decision.
how can you bet on a game if you dont have a line ???
I really wish someone could help me answer these questions
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I hate these wnba games where lines come out at 9 and games start at 10, that really sucks!
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where is my Bestie Donny, he can help me answer these tough questions
this place is a coffin, I thought people would be excited to get some conversation going. I am gonna probably chill out on writing to myself until we get some people in here!
how can you bet on a game if you dont have a line ???
Clarify for me: do you mean an official line formally generated (I.e. +2-3 points for being at home, etc.). Would a non-numeric feel of a line that gets triggered when exposed to a wrong-looking line presented by the books count as a line?
this place is a coffin, I thought people would be excited to get some conversation going. I am gonna probably chill out on writing to myself until we get some people in here!
LOL. You thought you were going to change things? You have to have a topic first. The place is dead because most topics are talked out and gamblers are not very interested in gambling. People would not talk to you before and they are not going to start now.
Clarify for me: do you mean an official line formally generated (I.e. +2-3 points for being at home, etc.). Would a non-numeric feel of a line that gets triggered when exposed to a wrong-looking line presented by the books count as a line?
i guess what I do is I model the game and I get Knickerbockers -6 lets say
now I pretty much know that I am not perfect usually for sides like that lets say I am off by an average of 10%
so if I model -6 that means it will close or the "fair line" will be -5.4 or -6.6 so anything in that range is a no bet for me
now lets say its currently at -4 I pretty much know its going to move so I bet it!
now official line is not a necessity but using this example you come up with
I like the Lakers in this game
now the line comes out Lakers -5, the ? is when do you stop liking the lakers -7 -8 -9 -10 -11, when?
LOL. You thought you were going to change things? You have to have a topic first. The place is dead because most topics are talked out and gamblers are not very interested in gambling. People would not talk to you before and they are not going to start now.
Gamblers are not interested in gambling, how about winning! All i do is win its a fact! I am top ten in fairlay leaderboard always! I stay there I am always making money betting and I use only one method crushing the line, nothing else matters, I make zero "gut bets" I do make fun drunk bets but not on fairlay! I have never been negative, fairlay is my sports betting business account.
I still firmly believe the only way to win long term is beat the line. I do believe you can do even better than that if you can beat the line consistently and know when to layoff because of a circumstance that makes you pass on some games.
the problem with most bettors they dont meet either or both conditions and to win long term you need both
1 Volume you got to have enough bets to overcome variance or you are just having fun even with a real edge
2 Edge "beat the line"
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My WNBA and CFL models look really good, I dont know if anyone has been watching my lines but they have been pretty darn close to closing and the lines have moved fairly consistently my way on the picks.
i guess what I do is I model the game and I get Knickerbockers -6 lets say
now I pretty much know that I am not perfect usually for sides like that lets say I am off by an average of 10%
so if I model -6 that means it will close or the "fair line" will be -5.4 or -6.6 so anything in that range is a no bet for me
now lets say its currently at -4 I pretty much know its going to move so I bet it!
now official line is not a necessity but using this example you come up with
I like the Lakers in this game
now the line comes out Lakers -5, the ? is when do you stop liking the lakers -7 -8 -9 -10 -11, when?
If a person is betting a line, they will generally think the line is off by at least 2. They will bet the number. If the number has moved, they will obviously not be as interested in betting and might pass.
Now if they thought the number was off by 5 and it was only off by 2. They still win. If they start betting games, they think are off 2, they will probably start losing.
If a person does not make a line but generally has a good feel for numbers, they have a decent chance of winning if everything they bet they think is off by at least 2 points.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"><col width="58"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
Closing
7/10
Conn
Sun
-7.5
-5.5
7/10
Atla
Dream
153.5
151.5
7/10
Phoe
Mercury
156.5
157.5
7/10
Wash
Mystics
-10
-8.5
7/10
Las
Aces
-6.5
-5.5
7/10
Indi
Fever
157.5
161
7/10
Minn
Lynx
156.5
7/10
Chic
Sky
-1
</tbody>
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I still cant believe Tomic -6 is -112. I have it at -148 and the line has continued to move down without any change. I guess people think he is not motivated to win and I just dont get that, MOST pro athletes cant even practice or talk about playing without getting competitive.
If a person is betting a line, they will generally think the line is off by at least 2. They will bet the number. If the number has moved, they will obviously not be as interested in betting and might pass.
Now if they thought the number was off by 5 and it was only off by 2. They still win. If they start betting games, they think are off 2, they will probably start losing.
If a person does not make a line but generally has a good feel for numbers, they have a decent chance of winning if everything they bet they think is off by at least 2 points.
think of a car auction right
you are going to buy a car, you dont go by gut, you use a book or online to get a value before you bid, this is the same thing, how can you succeed if you kinda just assume something is off by 2. I dont get it. I dont know who is ever going to win ever, I only know what I think there chances of winning are and if the bet leaves some EV on the floor I try and sweep it up
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I think Tomic -6 at -112 is a steal because I got -147, I have no idea if he will win or cover that 6. I just think that it will move towards -150 and should leak some EV, personally I have no fricken idea how tennis lines even move. say its game day and they got -150 and what could possibly change that line so much, its the same two players, crazy the movement in tennis. I guess that is a sign it is not so efficient but in reality the numbers show tennis is super efficient, so who knows! anyone know????
think of a car auction right
you are going to buy a car, you dont go by gut, you use a book or online to get a value before you bid, this is the same thing, how can you succeed if you kinda just assume something is off by 2. I dont get it. I dont know who is ever going to win ever, I only know what I think there chances of winning are and if the bet leaves some EV on the floor I try and sweep it up
It is a different mindset. If you are buying cars, you know what a Prius costs. If you are buying a used Prius, do you really need to look up the Kelly Blue Book to know if you are getting a good deal?
So if you follow a sport, you know roughly what the point differential is between two teams. You may be right or you may be wrong. But if you are betting games that you think the line is off significantly, it does not matter if you sat down and power rated every single team. You think the line is pretty far off. The only thing that matters is if your estimation of how good teams are is right or wrong.
This is a casual betting approach though and something that can work for an average gambler. It will not work on a high volume basis.
think of a car auction right
you are going to buy a car, you dont go by gut, you use a book or online to get a value before you bid, this is the same thing, how can you succeed if you kinda just assume something is off by 2. I dont get it. I dont know who is ever going to win ever, I only know what I think there chances of winning are and if the bet leaves some EV on the floor I try and sweep it up
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Now if you are going to sell used Prius for a living, you had better have your numbers right because the guys walking off the street will clean your clock if you don't.
You can get a great deal on a Prius one time pretty easily. If you want to flip a Prius, you had better have a lot higher skill level.
and if you dont bet volume how do you ever know if you are good? CLV??? Low volume even CLV could be luck. the variance monster will lie to you every time unless you have huge volume! 1000 games is nothing, you need 5 to 10k to even start to guess you have a consistent real edge. CLV lets us cheat a bit on that high count but not much clv is 50-50 too!
and if you dont bet volume how do you ever know if you are good? CLV??? Low volume even CLV could be luck. the variance monster will lie to you every time unless you have huge volume! 1000 games is nothing, you need 5 to 10k to even start to guess you have a consistent real edge. CLV lets us cheat a bit on that high count but not much clv is 50-50 too!
Yes, if you are betting you will probably have a good idea of whether or not the lines are moving consistently in your favor even if you are not measuring it. The average gambler just wants to bet mostly for action. The ones that are more analytical will have the better chance of winning and will pay a little more attention.
None of this is particularly important for the average gambler. They pretty much all know they are going to lose but they like to keep trying.
If a person is fairly analytical in their mindset, they are likely to have a decent handle on whether the lines are moving in their favor or not. But again, if they ever get out of the "margin of safety" with their bets, they will lose.
I think most people should bet for fun and money they can afford to lose because the lines are fair and with juice very tough to beat. I hardly believe anyone is beating the NFL. there may be that 1% of the 1% who actually long term beat the NFL but that 1% is a very small group!
I think most people should bet for fun and money they can afford to lose because the lines are fair and with juice very tough to beat. I hardly believe anyone is beating the NFL. there may be that 1% of the 1% who actually long term beat the NFL but that 1% is a very small group!
True enough. Most gamblers have their manhood wrapped up in the amount they bet and wind up deep in the hole. But they went down like a man.
Most people should not bet more than $50 but it is tough to get a rush that way.
like h82lose has Federer +117 and now we know that a match between two of the top 2 players in the world has got to be pretty darn efficient. what would the hope for a bettor be on that bet? the game is in 2 days, so what would a bettor hope for that line to do to feel confident in that bet?
like h82lose has Federer +117 and now we know that a match between two of the top 2 players in the world has got to be pretty darn efficient. what would the hope for a bettor be on that bet? the game is in 2 days, so what would a bettor hope for that line to do to feel confident in that bet?
Is that your Asian handicapper friend? That guy is a good example.
The guy thinks almost of nothing but tennis. If a person is dedicating all their thoughts to tennis and is an analytical mind and has a mind for handicapping, they can have all sorts of angles in their head that give value. It could be the amount of effort in the previous match, the style of play of the two players or just a feeling that one player or the other is improperly valued due to recency bias. These are all values that some people are able to arrive at,. But most not.
Typically, a handicapper will betting based on multiple angles. If he is right on just one, he probably wins. The more he has, the better his bet probably is.
No I dont know h82lose. the guy I was betting with and got my ass kicked was nishikori! he smashed me I conceded with a ways to go, there was no way I was gonna win, mercy rule!
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Nishikori defeats every single thing I think I know about betting, he wins and never beats the line he has 1000s of records and his ROI well exceeds his expected ROI from the line, its crazy, he makes my opinion seem stupid and he took my money proving it!
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I am still too pussy to tail him cause I cant overcome my clv cult thing I got going on! LOL
No I dont know h82lose. the guy I was betting with and got my ass kicked was nishikori! he smashed me I conceded with a ways to go, there was no way I was gonna win, mercy rule!
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Nishikori defeats every single thing I think I know about betting, he wins and never beats the line he has 1000s of records and his ROI well exceeds his expected ROI from the line, its crazy, he makes my opinion seem stupid and he took my money proving it!
As I have told you before, if you bet 10,000 games and the line moves against you and you win, you are right and the market is wrong.
yes well he is eating a steak right now on that! still unbelievable, he got me Christian and Joseph B with that, its nuts
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Nish has recorded the following numbers and he has not beat the line anywhere near that, he is at about 1% expected return and is at 9% actual ROI, fricken crazy!
yes well he is eating a steak right now on that! still unbelievable, he got me Christian and Joseph B with that, its nuts
You base your evaluation of gambling on financial theories which are a bit flawed themselves. There is a lot of value to be had in betting markets. There are lots of angles that a person can use in their favor. The lines are tight but there are always a few lines that are way off. And you only have to find 3 in 100 to win.
You base your evaluation of gambling on financial theories which are a bit flawed themselves. There is a lot of value to be had in betting markets. There are lots of angles that a person can use in their favor. The lines are tight but there are always a few lines that are way off. And you only have to find 3 in 100 to win.
I just dont believe that is possible! I know I know but I just dont believe it. I think if you go to betfair or fairlay and put a market up and price it 10 cents off pinnacle, people will buy it up
Comments
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I have the wings at 150.5 so I think 154.5 is too much
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
My Ln
7/10
Conn
Sun
-7.5
7/10
Atla
Dream
153.5
7/10
Phoe
Mercury
156.5
7/10
Wash
Mystics
-10
7/10
Las
Aces
-6.5
7/10
Indi
Fever
157.5
7/10
Minn
Lynx
156.5
7/10
Chic
Sky
-1
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
I will wait for BOL and Pinnacle to come out before I bet, seems like Bovada has lines out, that is crazy early.
Nice Job, I had the Wings +6 and almost used your under for a small parlay. it was that or a little ML on the Wings.
Bernard Tomic -6 -112, its a steal at -112 I think it will close closer to -140, not sure what caused it to drop off so much but that line I HOPE will move back
I got 157.5, so it should come down significantly
Player Scored avg 12 pts last 10 games
so if the over under for that player is <>9, they take the over and when it loses they say how, look at his last 10 game average.
I mean can you really believe it is that simple to win?
I really just dont get how you think that actually is a "make a bet" scenario on that fact as the majority of your decision.
how can you bet on a game if you dont have a line ???
I really wish someone could help me answer these questions
- - - Updated - - -
I hate these wnba games where lines come out at 9 and games start at 10, that really sucks!
- - - Updated - - -
where is my Bestie Donny, he can help me answer these tough questions
Clarify for me: do you mean an official line formally generated (I.e. +2-3 points for being at home, etc.). Would a non-numeric feel of a line that gets triggered when exposed to a wrong-looking line presented by the books count as a line?
LOL. You thought you were going to change things? You have to have a topic first. The place is dead because most topics are talked out and gamblers are not very interested in gambling. People would not talk to you before and they are not going to start now.
i guess what I do is I model the game and I get Knickerbockers -6 lets say
now I pretty much know that I am not perfect usually for sides like that lets say I am off by an average of 10%
so if I model -6 that means it will close or the "fair line" will be -5.4 or -6.6 so anything in that range is a no bet for me
now lets say its currently at -4 I pretty much know its going to move so I bet it!
now official line is not a necessity but using this example you come up with
I like the Lakers in this game
now the line comes out Lakers -5, the ? is when do you stop liking the lakers -7 -8 -9 -10 -11, when?
Gamblers are not interested in gambling, how about winning! All i do is win its a fact! I am top ten in fairlay leaderboard always! I stay there I am always making money betting and I use only one method crushing the line, nothing else matters, I make zero "gut bets" I do make fun drunk bets but not on fairlay! I have never been negative, fairlay is my sports betting business account.
I still firmly believe the only way to win long term is beat the line. I do believe you can do even better than that if you can beat the line consistently and know when to layoff because of a circumstance that makes you pass on some games.
the problem with most bettors they dont meet either or both conditions and to win long term you need both
1 Volume you got to have enough bets to overcome variance or you are just having fun even with a real edge
2 Edge "beat the line"
- - - Updated - - -
My WNBA and CFL models look really good, I dont know if anyone has been watching my lines but they have been pretty darn close to closing and the lines have moved fairly consistently my way on the picks.
If a person is betting a line, they will generally think the line is off by at least 2. They will bet the number. If the number has moved, they will obviously not be as interested in betting and might pass.
Now if they thought the number was off by 5 and it was only off by 2. They still win. If they start betting games, they think are off 2, they will probably start losing.
If a person does not make a line but generally has a good feel for numbers, they have a decent chance of winning if everything they bet they think is off by at least 2 points.
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"><col width="58"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
Closing
7/10
Conn
Sun
-7.5
-5.5
7/10
Atla
Dream
153.5
151.5
7/10
Phoe
Mercury
156.5
157.5
7/10
Wash
Mystics
-10
-8.5
7/10
Las
Aces
-6.5
-5.5
7/10
Indi
Fever
157.5
161
7/10
Minn
Lynx
156.5
7/10
Chic
Sky
-1
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
I still cant believe Tomic -6 is -112. I have it at -148 and the line has continued to move down without any change. I guess people think he is not motivated to win and I just dont get that, MOST pro athletes cant even practice or talk about playing without getting competitive.
think of a car auction right
you are going to buy a car, you dont go by gut, you use a book or online to get a value before you bid, this is the same thing, how can you succeed if you kinda just assume something is off by 2. I dont get it. I dont know who is ever going to win ever, I only know what I think there chances of winning are and if the bet leaves some EV on the floor I try and sweep it up
- - - Updated - - -
I think Tomic -6 at -112 is a steal because I got -147, I have no idea if he will win or cover that 6. I just think that it will move towards -150 and should leak some EV, personally I have no fricken idea how tennis lines even move. say its game day and they got -150 and what could possibly change that line so much, its the same two players, crazy the movement in tennis. I guess that is a sign it is not so efficient but in reality the numbers show tennis is super efficient, so who knows! anyone know????
It is a different mindset. If you are buying cars, you know what a Prius costs. If you are buying a used Prius, do you really need to look up the Kelly Blue Book to know if you are getting a good deal?
So if you follow a sport, you know roughly what the point differential is between two teams. You may be right or you may be wrong. But if you are betting games that you think the line is off significantly, it does not matter if you sat down and power rated every single team. You think the line is pretty far off. The only thing that matters is if your estimation of how good teams are is right or wrong.
This is a casual betting approach though and something that can work for an average gambler. It will not work on a high volume basis.
Yes, if you are betting you will probably have a good idea of whether or not the lines are moving consistently in your favor even if you are not measuring it. The average gambler just wants to bet mostly for action. The ones that are more analytical will have the better chance of winning and will pay a little more attention.
None of this is particularly important for the average gambler. They pretty much all know they are going to lose but they like to keep trying.
If a person is fairly analytical in their mindset, they are likely to have a decent handle on whether the lines are moving in their favor or not. But again, if they ever get out of the "margin of safety" with their bets, they will lose.
True enough. Most gamblers have their manhood wrapped up in the amount they bet and wind up deep in the hole. But they went down like a man.
Most people should not bet more than $50 but it is tough to get a rush that way.
Is that your Asian handicapper friend? That guy is a good example.
The guy thinks almost of nothing but tennis. If a person is dedicating all their thoughts to tennis and is an analytical mind and has a mind for handicapping, they can have all sorts of angles in their head that give value. It could be the amount of effort in the previous match, the style of play of the two players or just a feeling that one player or the other is improperly valued due to recency bias. These are all values that some people are able to arrive at,. But most not.
Typically, a handicapper will betting based on multiple angles. If he is right on just one, he probably wins. The more he has, the better his bet probably is.
- - - Updated - - -
Nishikori defeats every single thing I think I know about betting, he wins and never beats the line he has 1000s of records and his ROI well exceeds his expected ROI from the line, its crazy, he makes my opinion seem stupid and he took my money proving it!
- - - Updated - - -
I am still too pussy to tail him cause I cant overcome my clv cult thing I got going on! LOL
As I have told you before, if you bet 10,000 games and the line moves against you and you win, you are right and the market is wrong.
- - - Updated - - -
Nish has recorded the following numbers and he has not beat the line anywhere near that, he is at about 1% expected return and is at 9% actual ROI, fricken crazy!
You base your evaluation of gambling on financial theories which are a bit flawed themselves. There is a lot of value to be had in betting markets. There are lots of angles that a person can use in their favor. The lines are tight but there are always a few lines that are way off. And you only have to find 3 in 100 to win.
I just dont believe that is possible! I know I know but I just dont believe it. I think if you go to betfair or fairlay and put a market up and price it 10 cents off pinnacle, people will buy it up