I did not do well in the NBA and quit on it about playoff time. I made some changes to the NBA using my WNBA model and that did not work out well. WNBA model and NBA model are not friends at all. They are two different things.
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the biggest problem I had in the NBA was totals, I did very well on sides. CLV was great on sides and I ended up units but the totals ate up all my CLV and profits! all this was with a WNBA model which I thought was stronger but this year I will go back to the NBA model for the NBA, it will be good I hope@!
no I always do better on spreads, my spread confidence is way higher!
vegas line moved with me probably just enough to cover the margin!
the total did not move with me much.
if I was a betting man (wait what did I say,LOL) i would put more on sides than totals for sure!
both will be fine though. I think the model is pretty close as you can kinda see by the closeness of my projected lines and what they actually closed at
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Date
City
Teams
Mine
Closing
I put a few pebbles on Bell to advance, got it at -172 at fairlay! best price I could find online. Looks like you can get it in Vegas for -170, I think that is a steal on him!
Boston seems to be the bet at -3 but at -4 it's a pass
Got screwed the other night although anything could happen the Over 175.5 with the score 80-74 at the 7:53 mark needing 22 points in almost 8 minutes. Also had NO +5 winning by 6 that looks good but far from a sure thing but I liked my chances before the earthquake.
Just heard a light wind blowing in from Right Field @ tonight's Home Run Contest.
oh I bet it for fun, I thought the line might scoot to -200 or so with his popularity and being hot right now. I would not be surprised if he lights it up no matter who is pitching, he is on fire all the way around. I like Vlady just from watching the BP videos he has out right now just smooth as can be and crushing it without even swinging. I still like Bell to advance over Acuna!
oh I bet it for fun, I thought the line might scoot to -200 or so with his popularity and being hot right now. I would not be surprised if he lights it up no matter who is pitching, he is on fire all the way around. I like Vlady just from watching the BP videos he has out right now just smooth as can be and crushing it without even swinging. I still like Bell to advance over Acuna!
That was for Information only. Funny I can't remember who bet this with me I want to say Jets but the first and only Home Run Contest I bet and hit was Cano at 9/1. I remember talking with someone and we both bet it and hit it.
who is your 1st rd "shoe in" pick to advance Old timer?
No Shoe in I don't know what to actually look at. EX: Both Penderson and Bergman aren't really hitting the ball the past two weeks or so but does that have anything to do with a Home Run Contest. I don't think so but if I have to choose for the overall leader after the 1st round I would look for someone who's been there before or has someone throwing to them that's been there before.
Most players tend to swing at almost every pitch and your wearing yourself down to quickly. I understand there's a time clock but knowing how to pace yourself IMO is a big advantage. Then looking at this ballpark your pretty much looking for a left handed bat.
So Let's look at Santana, Pederson or Bell. Just for fun I would take Pederson to be the leader after the 1st Round if that's what your asking. I don't like short odds in things like this and if Pederson was 8/1 or so I'd take a small flyer.
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Have you ever thought of Dutching 3 players and as long as one of them win you profit.
I dont want profit, I want drunk get excited action! All star break is a break for me as well
I will bet on just about anything. However, the home run derby is in the same category as the Hot Dog eating contest is for me. Too random to risk money on it. Like you always talk about CLV, I always want to at least delude myself that I have an edge.
I suspected the Bell line would go up and it has I bet at -172 and it is sitting roughly about -185 -190 around the street. I am just doing it and discussing it for fun! I have no intention of gaining an edge here, this is beer and fun!
I hope Bell advances that is my bet and I hope we have a good time watching him do it
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I just dont know how to quantify props, so they are purely recreational. I dont bet for fun on major sports, I bet for line value!
I will bet on just about anything. However, the home run derby is in the same category as the Hot Dog eating contest is for me. Too random to risk money on it. Like you always talk about CLV, I always want to at least delude myself that I have an edge.
Comments
always energetic about a good bet!
I still live and die by CLV. I never pick anything unless I think the line will have value!
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I did not do well in the NBA and quit on it about playoff time. I made some changes to the NBA using my WNBA model and that did not work out well. WNBA model and NBA model are not friends at all. They are two different things.
- - - Updated - - -
the biggest problem I had in the NBA was totals, I did very well on sides. CLV was great on sides and I ended up units but the totals ate up all my CLV and profits! all this was with a WNBA model which I thought was stronger but this year I will go back to the NBA model for the NBA, it will be good I hope@!
Aces -5
Mystics Under 161
Thanks danshan, you gave me the courage I needed to bet U.S. money line. Great day for me today partly due to you.
vegas line moved with me probably just enough to cover the margin!
the total did not move with me much.
if I was a betting man (wait what did I say,LOL) i would put more on sides than totals for sure!
both will be fine though. I think the model is pretty close as you can kinda see by the closeness of my projected lines and what they actually closed at
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Date
City
Teams
Mine
Closing
7/7
Las
Aces
-7.5
-5.5
7/7
New
Liberty
162.5
164.5
7/7
Wash
Mystics
-2.5
-5
7/7
Los
Sparks
157.5
160.5
7/7
Atla
Dream
151
153.5
7/7
Phoe
Mercury
-7
-7.5
7/7
Dall
Wings
153
154.5
7/7
Chic
Sky
-5.5
-6.5
</tbody>
Players-whos pitching to them
Bell- minor league teammate whos not confidant
Vlad Jr-his BP pitcher
Chapman-Dad
Santana- his BP pitcher
Alonso-Cousin unbelievable strength +250 To short to play.
Bergman-Same as last year May surprise @8/1 or better
Acuna- ATL Coach,pitched in 1 Derby Dark Horse
Pederson-LAD coach,pitched in 2 Derbys
Boston seems to be the bet at -3 but at -4 it's a pass
Got screwed the other night although anything could happen the Over 175.5 with the score 80-74 at the 7:53 mark needing 22 points in almost 8 minutes. Also had NO +5 winning by 6 that looks good but far from a sure thing but I liked my chances before the earthquake.
Just heard a light wind blowing in from Right Field @ tonight's Home Run Contest.
That was for Information only. Funny I can't remember who bet this with me I want to say Jets but the first and only Home Run Contest I bet and hit was Cano at 9/1. I remember talking with someone and we both bet it and hit it.
No Shoe in I don't know what to actually look at. EX: Both Penderson and Bergman aren't really hitting the ball the past two weeks or so but does that have anything to do with a Home Run Contest. I don't think so but if I have to choose for the overall leader after the 1st round I would look for someone who's been there before or has someone throwing to them that's been there before.
Most players tend to swing at almost every pitch and your wearing yourself down to quickly. I understand there's a time clock but knowing how to pace yourself IMO is a big advantage. Then looking at this ballpark your pretty much looking for a left handed bat.
So Let's look at Santana, Pederson or Bell. Just for fun I would take Pederson to be the leader after the 1st Round if that's what your asking. I don't like short odds in things like this and if Pederson was 8/1 or so I'd take a small flyer.
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Have you ever thought of Dutching 3 players and as long as one of them win you profit.
Have a Blast, Do a shot for every 5 Home runs your guy hits.
I will bet on just about anything. However, the home run derby is in the same category as the Hot Dog eating contest is for me. Too random to risk money on it. Like you always talk about CLV, I always want to at least delude myself that I have an edge.
I hope Bell advances that is my bet and I hope we have a good time watching him do it
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I just dont know how to quantify props, so they are purely recreational. I dont bet for fun on major sports, I bet for line value!
Danshan, do spend much of your bitcoin as bitcoin? Or do you convert it all to dollars first?
tweet of the year - my vote
His Pitcher Sucks