Betting Talk

My Belmont Stakes writeups and bets if anyone cares

Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
edited June 2019 in Sports Betting
NOTE: Definitely wouldn't call myself an expert. Have had some success with the bigger races but if my pace scenario expectation is wrong, pretty much all the writeup stuff below is going to be wrong too. Let's hope for a slow pace. Also I didn't proofread this so apologies for that.

The Belmont Stakes is longer than the other 2 Triple Crown races so that needs to be taken into account. I could be wrong but I don't think we'll get the fast pace that helps the closers here. That being said, the closers might be the most talented horses in this race as well. Ultimately I'm going to have a tough time banking on a closer, especially in a race like the Belmont where the deeper closers historically struggle.

Joevia sets the early pace but with no other runners vying for the lead I doubt it's that fast. Spinoff and War of Will behind him, Tax, Intrepid Heart, and Tacitus not far behind. Then we have all the closers who I'm just going to toss. Joevia isn't fast enough and probably tires which sets up the 5 horses behind him to vie for the win. We might get a closer into the top 3 but I don't think any can win the thing. If Tacitus stalks which I'm mildly confident he will, I have him winning. Everything other than post position (which isn't a big ding) just sets up well for him. I think he'll be stronger than War of Will in the stretch. I'll mess with the 4/6/8/9/10 in exotics and have no clue who finishes where but I like the 10 to win.

1. Joevia 15/1 (100, pace setter or presser) - Would guess this guy sets the pace, not sure what chance he has to win if he doesn't, especially from the 1 hole. Ultimately isn't fast enough and the distance is too much. Will have a big say in how the race plays out when you figure in what type of pace he sets, but ultimately not good enough to finish on the podium. So much of figuring out the pace scenario depends on figuring out this horse. No one should challenge Joevia for the lead so I guess it's up to the jockey whether or not he wants to burn his horse out early with a fast pace or not. This is the owner's only horse in the field so there is no reason to waste the horse to set up another, making me think they'll be on the pace but it'll be on the slower side.

2. Everfast 12/1 (105, closer) - Deep closer coming off best run of his career likely won't have the fast pace necessary to pass other horses late. Has never had back-to-back good races in his life.

3. Master Fencer 11/1 (106, closer) - Had a very surprising North American debut in the Derby and seems to have the pedigree for this distance but this is another closer in a race that doesn't appear to benefit closers, and he's not my favorite or 2nd favorite closer in the field.

4. Tax 11/1 (105, stalker) - I'm looking at stalkers and press pacers to do well in my possibly trash pace scenario and this horse fits the mold in that regard. With the horses in the 2 and 3 hole likely falling back early, Tax should have a nice spot near the leaders. Bad Derby run but with the mud and congestion that race very well may be one to toss while handicapping. The jockey won this race in 2016 so that could figure in. It really boils down to whether the Derby was a mess or this horse just didn't have it in him to jump up in distance. Pedigree suggests he'll enjoy extra distance so he's definitely one I'm considering.

5. Bourbon War 7/1 (110, closer) - Dissapointing effort last time out considering he got the pace he wanted and was set up well enough. Has struggled with additional distance but a jockey switch to stud Mike Smith could help. Pedigree suggests the distance shouldn't be an issue so I'm not entirely sure what the deal is. Just in bad form maybe? Ultimately this is another closer in a race with a pace that doesn't set up closers, in a race that hasn't been kind to closers historically. The horse has a ton of potential but this might just be a bad setup.

6. Spinoff 11/1 (101, press pace or stalker) - Awful Kentucky Derby but never had a chance. You can't expect a pace presser to do well in a massively crowded field when they are way out on the wrong end of the gate. Horse ran wide and the Derby can be tossed from consideration in handicapping. Spinoff's running style should do well here and he won't have many obstacles to get inside early. Pedigree should be fine for the distance and his trainer is top-notch. He's on my radar with the big negative being experience.

7. Sir Winston 7/1 (101, closer) - Another deep closer but coming off solid effort at this track (albeit in a lesser race at lesser distance). That last race was his 1st with a new jockey and seemed like a big step in the right direction. Rosario (jockey) jumped here from Everfast so that might be a hint as to which horse the jockey prefers. Rosario is one of the better closers in horse racing and the horse has the pedigree to go the distance, but once again the slower pace worries me. Kind of an intruiging option but not sure I can pull the trigger.

8. Intrepid Heart 5/1 (103, stalker) - Intrepid Heart has the right style to do well here and with so many closers further inside I'm not too worried about the post position. Coming off a decent enough race on this track that could have been much sharper if he didn't stumble out of the gate before bumping another runner. Seems you can probably mostly toss that race for this horse. Horse is very inexperienced and weakened a bit last race in his first try at 1 1/8 but also might be due to expending a bunch of energy coming back from that trash start. Pedigree is very nice for the Belmont distance... as good as anyone in the field really (except for maybe Tacitus). Also has one of the better jockeys for this Belmont track in Velasquez. Adding blinkers for the 1st time apparently.

9. War of Will 9/2 (107, press pace) - My pick to win the Preakness (shower me with praise!) has the right style and the speed to get there. Like Intrepid Heart, I'm not overly concerned about the outside post position with a bunch of closers further in. It's not ideal but not a death knell like it would be in the Derby. Has been a stud when able to get a clean race in but was coming off 2 efforts where he didn't have that luxury. Horse has a ton of talent and it really seems to depend on if he can get a clean trip. You shoud be able to tell how he'll do by how smooth he breaks.

10. Tacitus 5/2 (107, closer) - The most talented closer in the race will surely be gaining ground late despite the slower pace, but will it be enough? Pedigree is tailor-made for this race. Despite being listed as a closer, many seem to believe this horse has a ton of versatility and might be in a stalking role. I don't see any reason why he can't succeed doing so. This is definitely a contender.

Comments

  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Also the odds I used are obviously stale so do what you want with the info.
Sign In or Register to comment.