Betting Talk

Football 2019

NortheastNortheast Senior Member
edited September 2019 in Sports Betting
NFL

K.Murray ROY +225 (bo)

J.Jacobs ROY +900 (bo)

D.Montgomery ROY +1584 0.5 unit (bm, 2500 out there)

N.Harry ROY +1687 0.5 unit (bm, 2500 out there)


Raiders division +1600 0.25 unit (bo, OTB @some)

Comments

  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited May 2019
    GOY line from bo for October 5th:

    Texas plus 2 -115 / WVA will grade this as a future bet since limits are still low

    Texas is preseason #11 from both Athlon and Lindys after finishing 10-4 last year including a bowl victory over Georgia. They bring back only 7 starters but do return QB Ehlinger and their kicker and punter. They add Georgia Tech transfer OL Parker Braun (2X all-ACC) and a strong recruiting class including running back Jordan Whittington who should see playing time immediately. Note freshman Bru McCoy who was even more highly regarded is reportedly reconsidering enrolling at Texas.

    As much as Texas has going for them, this play is a West Virginia fade. The Mountaineers have a new coach after importing Neal Brown from Troy and return only 11 starters (10 if #1WR Marcus Simms does indeed transfer). They lose QB Grier, WRs Sills and Jennings, and LT Cajuste. Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall (who dealt with plantar fasciitis in the spring) or Jack Allison will likely replace Grier but neither was particularly good in the spring. West Virginia slipped by Texas 42-41 @Texas last year but after losing so much offensive firepower and breaking in a new coaching staff it will be tough to beat what could be a top ten Texas team.

    Others...all for 1 unit as well..

    9/14 MICH ST minus 7 -115 / Az St
    11/2 WASH minus 3 / Utah
    11/2 Ore plus 1 -115 / Usc
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    186 Northwestern plus 7 -115
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Northwestern is #185 not 186
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    middle opportunity on #214 with USC minus 11 and Fresno plus 14
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Cle win Sb +1430 0.25 unit (pin)
    Miami under 5 wins -140 (bo)
    Cincy under 6 wins +105 0.5 unit (bo)
    Chicago win div +175 0.5 unit (bo)
    Tenn win div +645 0.25 unit (BM)
    Denver under 7 wins -110 2 units (bo)
    Jacksonville under 8 wins -120 (bo)
    Tampa under 6.5 wins -111 2 units (pin)
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Purdue under 7 wins -106 (pin)
    Troy over 6.5 wins -202 (pin)
    Wisc under 8.5 wins -130 (BM)
    UNC under 5 wins -118 (BM)
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Northeast wrote: »
    Purdue under 7 wins -106 (pin)
    Troy over 6.5 wins -202 (pin)
    Wisc under 8.5 wins -130 (BM)
    UNC under 5 wins -118 (BM)

    im on that purdue play.

    also on kansas under 3. i missed the 3.5, but show me 4 wins - aint happening with les.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    The Browns to win the super bowl ??and is there some secret to why you think they can achieve that in bakers 2nd year.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    The Browns to win the super bowl ??and is there some secret to why you think they can achieve that in bakers 2nd year.

    I will often recommend a variety of futures from favorites to longshots. In the end it comes down to perceived value. My thread last year had NFL futures ranging from 1 unit on the Rams at -175 to win the division all the way to 0.25 unit on Gallup to win ROY at +7395. Last year also included 0.5 unit on the Rams at +1089 and 0.5 unit on the Texans at +2200 to win the Super Bowl. When the Rams made the Super Bowl I said a hedge on the Patriots was in order and that hedge led to a total football futures profit of 1.45 units (including NCAAF futures at 1-1, -0.8).

    Are the Browns a bit overhyped coming into the season? Probably. Is Mayfield a young QB? Yes. However the Browns have improved their roster this offseason from a team that was not too far from the playoffs last year. They lost two overtime games and tied another in OT en route to a 7-8-1 record. You wrote in another thread about focusing on what have NFL teams done recently, particularly the last four games --- Cleveland closed 5-2 in their last 7 games and 3-1 in their last 4 games nearly beating the playoff bound, division winning Ravens for a second time. Pinnacle has the Browns with the shortest odds in the AFC North this year at +138 and their win total is at 9 Over 20. Cleveland has a good shot to win their division and/or make the playoffs. If they can make it through to the Super Bowl then perhaps another hedge of the +1430 will be in order but there is enough value at that price for a 0.25 unit investment.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    UTEP under 3 wins -115 0.5 unit (pin)

    Starting QB Kai Locksley was arrested in June for DUI, marijuana possession, weapons possession, and threatening a shooting. A healthy Locksley was likely the key to any success UTEP was going to have this year after finishing 1-11 last year. If that wasn't problematic enough yesterday it was announced that starting RB Quardraiz Wadley would miss the upcoming season due to a toe injury. UTEP does have some winnable games on their schedule including the opener vs Houston Baptist, vs UTSA, vs Charlotte, @NM ST, and vs Rice. UTEP's win total was 2.5 over or 3 depending on where you shopped and that seemed reasonable after the spring but given the summer news it appears 1.5 or 2 wins would be more appropriate.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    im on that purdue play.

    also on kansas under 3. i missed the 3.5, but show me 4 wins - aint happening with les.

    Will Harris on 810 agreed with you also likes MIZZ ov 6.5(not sure where they got that number)
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    northeast, thanks for the explanation, but for me, cleve will be very lucky to get into the playoffs, but i hope you cash your ticket.
    have a great football season.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    #160 OREGON STATE plus 15 / Oklahoma State

    Oregon State returns 16 starters (7 offense, 9 defense) including senior quarterback Jake Luton. Luton suffered a concussion in the opener and only started 4 games but finished with a respectable 10/4 ratio and 62.5 completion percentage. Oregon State adds Nebraska transfer quarterback Tristan Gebbia who was very highly rated coming out of high school (Steele #9). Running back Jermar Jefferson is the offensive MVP after rushing for 1380 yards and 12 touchdowns while earning Pac-12 freshman offensive player of the year as a true freshman. The Beavers also return their leading wide receiver in Isaiah Hodgins who was honorable mention Pac-12 last year and add another Nebraska transfer in wide receiver Tyjon Lindsey (Steele #5) who started one game in 2017 as a true freshman. Left tackle Blake Brandel has 36 career starts (27 @LT) and is among 4 seniors on the offensive line.

    On defense Oklahoma transfer Addison Gumbs should be a nice addition to the defensive line although he is being “eased in” to practice coming off of knee surgery. The Beavers added two other junior college defensive ends that were both in for the spring and should contribute. Oregon State brings in, stop me if you heard this before, another Nebraska transfer in Avery Roberts who is expected to start at linebacker. Sophomore David Morris, who earned honorable mention P12 honors as a true freshman in 2017 returns at safety after a medical redshirt in 2018.

    The Beavers special teams struggled last year but hopefully will be better if not at least less noticeable given expected improvement on offense and defense.

    Improving upon last year’s minus 10 turnover margin should be another positive factor. Last but not least former Beaver quarterback Jonathan Smith is now in his second year as head coach and he will field a better overall squad.

    Oklahoma State returns just 12 starters (7 offense, 5 defense) while saying goodbye to a quarterback who accounted for 42 touchdowns and a running back who was a fourth round draft choice. Sophomore Chuba Hubbard is a more than capable replacement at running back but quarterback is more of a question mark as neither Hawaii transfer Dru Brown nor redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders have thrown a pass here. There is also a new offensive coordinator as Sean Gleeson arrives from Princeton. Wide receiver Tylan Wallace was a Biletnikoff finalist and the offense should put up plenty of points but may not match last year’s output.

    The Cowboys defensive line is a question mark as they must replace their top five players including first and second team B12 members. They also lose their leading tackler and another second team B12 member from the linebacker unit. Their secondary should be improved but struggled last year.

    The special teams unit was solid but not spectacular and must replace their punter and long snapper.

    Oklahoma State was unpredictable last year as they won straight up three times as underdogs but also lost five times when favored. They are capable of a three touchdown victory in this game but it’s hard to trust them.

    BM opened this spread at 16.5 and it didn’t move for over a month before it went up to 17.5 and then fell to the current 15. Don’t expect a ton of CLV with the plus 15 but anything over 14 has value with the underdog. Oregon State is at least a field goal better than last year. Oklahoma State could be a field goal worse. I have the line at -10 when giving Oregon State 2.5 points for a less than average HFA at the moment. Corvallis can be a tough place to play – here’s looking at you USC 2008. Game one at home arguably provides for some early season optimism and excitement from the crowd but this hasn’t exactly been a Death Valley – ala LSU or Clemson if you prefer. An outright upset isn’t likely but it should be a competitive game and more than a two touchdown spread is generous.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    not expecting to have a lot of NFL plays but may sprinkle in a few and have one for week one...

    452 CHICAGO minus 3 -120 / Green Bay
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    add this to the list of strange offseason news... http://www.thegeorgeanne.com/news/article_659210e6-b534-11e9-8575-530b54096990.html

    Georgia Southern starting QB Shai Werts was suspended after being arrested for misdemeanor possession of cocaine when he was pulled over for speeding and then officers subsequently found white powder on the HOOD of his vehicle which tested positive for cocaine. The article also noted as he was being pursued by the officer Werts called 911 to report the situation and say that he was not going to pull over until he was out of a very dark stretch of road.

    The opening spread against LSU jumped a couple points this morning. I looked at the season win total as well but you have to wonder if he will be reinstated after some period of time. Georgia Southern's first four weeks are @LSU, vs Maine, at Minnesota, bye. So if he returned 9/28 vs ULL it might not even affect the season win total as they probably lose to LSU and Minnesota, and beat Maine anyway.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    NFL fantasy 2019…some thoughts on upcoming stars, breakout/undervalued players, sleepers, busts, and news/notes.

    Stars

    AZ QB K.Murray #1 pick should put up big numbers in Kingsbury’s offense and on a team that should be trailing a lot and playing high scoring games

    Breakout/Undervalued

    Tenn RB D.Henry finished strong in 2018; poised for big year but 100%?? (calf)
    Hous WR W.Fuller supposedly 100% off an ACL injury he could have a big year if he can stay healthy
    Det RB K.Johnson Riddick’s release could mean even more passing down work
    Tampa WR C.Godwin Coach Arians said Godwin “will never come off the field”
    Tampa TE OJ Howard Injuries cut short his first two years
    Car WR C.Samuel #2WR behind DJ Moore, “great” camp
    Pitt WR D.Moncrief #2WR opposite JuJu?
    Pitt TE V.McDonald should see increase in targets following A.brown and J.James departures
    Minn RB D.Cook injuries hurt him first two seasons; L.Murray no longer stealing carries from him

    Sleepers

    Bears RB D.Montgomery should fill J.Howard’s role
    Oak RB J.Jacobs could be 3-down player and push Murray for ROY
    Skins WR T.Quinn replacing Crowder as slot WR
    Oak TE D.Waller if teams double A.Brown it could open up more targets
    Ravens TE M.Andrews but the Baltimore offense is not going to put up a ton of points
    Pats WR N.Harry struggling early in camp but could emerge as deep threa t
    Pats WR M.Harris could have value early especially if Edelman is out
    Pats WR J.Meyers Brady’s “favorite target” early in camp
    Pats TE M.Lacosse taking Gronk’s role?
    SF WR D.Samuel could be #2 receiving option behind TE Kittle

    Busts

    Rams RB T.Gurley Should have regular work limited to be fresh for playoffs. Still should put up good numbers but will probably be drafted higher than he deserves
    Tenn WR A.Humphries put up good numbers last year on a bad TB team but should have a lesser role on a run heavy Tenn offense.
    I wouldn’t draft rookie QBs D.Jones (NYG) or D.Haskins (WASH) because while likely to play at SOME point we don’t know when. On a related QB note I also don’t trust Rosen or Fitzpatrick in Miami.

    News and notes:

    Titans LT Lewan suspended 1st 4 games
    Packers released #1DL M.Daniels who subsequently signed with Detroit
    Seattle #1DL J.Reed susp 6 gms
    Cin WR AJ Green out first 1-2 games? (ankle)
    NYG G.Tate susp 1st 4 gms?-appealing
    Indy QB A.Luck 100%?? (calf)
    Redskins LT T.Williams holdout/demand trade! Downgrades entire Wash offense if out
    Dallas RB E.Elliot holdout??
    Chargers RB M.Gordon holdout??
    Browns RB K.Hunt is susp for the first 8 games but could be a good waiver wire pickup for the 2H of the season
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Northeast wrote: »
    add this to the list of strange offseason news... http://www.thegeorgeanne.com/news/article_659210e6-b534-11e9-8575-530b54096990.html

    Georgia Southern starting QB Shai Werts was suspended after being arrested for misdemeanor possession of cocaine when he was pulled over for speeding and then officers subsequently found white powder on the HOOD of his vehicle which tested positive for cocaine. The article also noted as he was being pursued by the officer Werts called 911 to report the situation and say that he was not going to pull over until he was out of a very dark stretch of road.

    The opening spread against LSU jumped a couple points this morning. I looked at the season win total as well but you have to wonder if he will be reinstated after some period of time. Georgia Southern's first four weeks are @LSU, vs Maine, at Minnesota, bye. So if he returned 9/28 vs ULL it might not even affect the season win total as they probably lose to LSU and Minnesota, and beat Maine anyway.

    LSU fan checking in here. he "passed" a drug test and it sounds like while he may be suspended, youre right he is going to come back. i locked in LSU -27.5 but i dont love it. i may hedge. LSU is going to be really really good this year, but with texas on deck, i am not sure how much they will show. on the flip side, they will be working a new offense (stop me if youve heard that before) and may want to work on some basics and it will be up tempo and they have the personnel to do it. georgia southern is a quality team and at first glance it seemed like too much. but without their QB, i am coming around.

    i love the LSU look ahead line of -3.5 vs Florida fwiw and i really love some of the look ahead lines vs a&m.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Werts is back to practice and cocaine charges have been dropped; have not seen whether he will start @LSU but the line has not moved back down. Locksley also back at UTEP but reportedly not starting.

    #291 Florida minus 6 / Miami @Orlando
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Florida only brings back 5 starters on offense with the line being the chief concern. However QB Franks is back and took a big leap forward last year finishing with a 24/6 ratio and adding 7 rushing TDs. Leading rusher Perine is back and Malik Davis who was expected to be next in line to the departed Jordan Scarlett also returns after breaking his foot last year. The top six receivers return including four who caught 25+ passes.

    Florida returns 8 starters on defense and has All-SEC caliber players at all three levels. Jonathan Greenard arrives as a grad transfer from Lousiville and will look to improve upon the 7.5 sacks he registered in 2017 before missing 2018 due to injury. They must replace their leading tackler but sophomore Amari Burney is a highly rated recruit who had 11 tackles as a true freshman last year and is expected to step into a starting role at linebacker. The secondary could be the best in the country led by cornerback CJ Henderson.

    Florida has excellent special teams units and in what is forecasted to be a low scoring game (50.5 total at pin currently) that could be key.
    Head coach/play-caller Dan Mullen and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham are now in their second year in Gainesville and QB Franks appeared to find his groove last year. If the offensive line holds up and they can replace Jachai Polite’s 11 sacks on defense (Greenard should help) the Gators could challenge Georgia for the SEC East title although I still rate the Bulldogs a touchdown or so better.

    Miami head coach Manny Diaz was the defensive coordinator in Coral Gables the last three years. He was actually the head coach at Temple for 18 days this December (no HC experience before that) until Mark Richt suddenly retired and Diaz decided to head back to Miami.
    The Hurricanes return 6 starters on offense including their most effective quarterback in sophomore N’Kosi Perry who finished with a 13/6 ratio, 1 rushing TD, but only a 50.8 completion percentage last year. Many expected Ohio State transfer Tate Martell to win the QB job but that has yet to happen and three quarterbacks have been getting practice reps including redshirt freshman Jarren Williams. Like Florida, the offensive line is a concern for Miami and they may start four underclassmen. There is plenty of talent at running back and receiver - note former RB DeeJay Dallas may move over to receiver. KJ Osborn also joins the receiving corps after a 3rd team All-MAC season at Buffalo last year.

    Miami also returns 6 starters on defense highlighted by their linebacking corps which is led by the man in the middle Shaquille Quarterman. The defensive line adds two transfers with starting experience in Trevon Hill from Virginia Tech and Chigozie Nnoruka from UCLA. The Hurricane secondary lost three players to the NFL and could be an issue. USC transfer Bubba Bolden was projected to start at safety but he has yet to practice with the team.

    Miami special teams were less than stellar last year although junior college punter Louis Hedley is expected to improve their #117 net punting rating from last year.

    Looking at common opponents from last year Florida beat LSU 27-19 while Miami lost 33-17 and Florida beat Florida State 41-14 while Miami won 28-27. I wouldn’t put too much stock into one game but the last time we saw these teams play Florida destroyed Michigan 41-15 while Miami was on the losing end of a blowout to Wisconsin 35-3. From a pure talent differential the near touchdown spread is appropriate and both defenses should be excellent. I give Florida the edge on offense, at kicker and punter. Considering Miami has a new HC, a new OC, and possibly a new QB, I think it all adds up to a Gator victory. If Miami is indeed trailing and has to pass in the 4th quarter to win/cover I don’t trust their QB/s. The line opened at 8.5 which may have been a touch high but at minus 6 there is some value with the Gators. Note at the time of this writeup it already moved back to 6.5 at BM and my guess is it closes at 7 or 7.5 particularly since it opened at 8.5.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    NE - I just wanted to say thank you very much for all the posting and write ups. They are awesome and your write up in dans thread is very valuable and hits the crux of many issues. If you don’t mind feedback in your threads I’d love to continue discussing your plays but don’t want to muck up your plays thread. Either way, just wanted to pass along thanks and make sure you saw the Georgia Southern qb news (you did). If the kid is innocent (not sure and not sure if he was drinking) what a travesty.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    NE - I just wanted to say thank you very much for all the posting and write ups. They are awesome and your write up in dans thread is very valuable and hits the crux of many issues. If you don’t mind feedback in your threads I’d love to continue discussing your plays but don’t want to muck up your plays thread. Either way, just wanted to pass along thanks and make sure you saw the Georgia Southern qb news (you did). If the kid is innocent (not sure and not sure if he was drinking) what a travesty.


    In general feedback is fine with me and unless others want a picks only thread it can be included here. When someone posts plays they open themselves up to pats on the back and punches in the gut. One can hope they handle it all with class.

    Posting write-ups is a bit of a fine line. A wise man once told me I’d rather someone post information and no picks than picks and no information. Most forum readers just want winners. Some value information and discussion. Anyone can go on a hot streak but if you never see the reasoning then it makes it harder to buy into; although CLV proponents will point to that number or lack thereof. At some point it does benefit the handicapper to just keep the pick rationale to oneself. Not to mention sometimes write-ups leave you looking like a genius…and sometimes you look like a jacka**. With or without a write-up sometimes you win games you probably should’ve lost and sometimes you lose games you probably should’ve won. It is much more likely I will include write-ups for futures or any other plays at the beginning of a season. Once the season/s gets going the days become much less conducive to write-ups and long winded replies. Thanks for asking about feedback and have a good season.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    NCAA 0-1, -1.1
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    NCAA 0-3 -3.35
    NFL 0-1 -1.2
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