Betting Talk

MMA/UFC Thread

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  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC 242 Sept 07
    155lb Title Unification
    Dustin Poirier +310

    Khabib is my favorite fighter. This line is ridiculous- probabilities much closer.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Aljamain Sterling -129
    This is a hard read - will be a literal War with Munhoz who has output, granite fist and chin - may hedge later with right #.

    Aljamain Sterling +1.00
    Great fight by both guys.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC 238

    Donald Cerrone +123
    This will be another war on June 8th. I think Cerrone focus on his surgically repaired knee with visious Muay Thai kicks inside/out...stripping Ferguson of his explosivness and grinding out a decision victory.

    Donald Cerrone( -1.00)
    Unfortunate ending - Tony's pressure was overwhelming Cowboy; likey the same result after 3rds.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC 238
    CoMain
    Shevchenko/Eye U4.5 rds +107 (5Dimes)

    +1.07
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC 238 June 8th

    H. Cejudo +125
    Henry is moving up a weight class so there are legitimate questions how he will handle power from a killer like Moraes - however Getting + money on current 125lb champion and Olympic gold medalist is value.

    Champ Champ Cejudo +1.25
    Tonight 3-1 +2.32
    YTD 10-10 +1.75
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC241 Aug17

    Stipe Miocic +120 (5Dimes)

    The 2nd Champ I'm wagering against from American Kickboxing Academy in as many weeks. Some thin Value on this line - may get better once public starts hammering fav late - maybe not. 1st fight DC(from my hometown) exposed Stipe's weakness breaking Clinch - rematch will be a very different affair. Great fight either way.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville
    Prelims
    Andre Ewell -103
    Opening line had Ewell opened a big fav, now he is a short dog. Value on Ewell now.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville
    Prelims
    Andre Ewell -103
    Opening line had Ewell opened a big fav, now he is a short dog. Value on Ewell now.

    Dan Ige +129
    Good value
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville
    Prelims
    Andre Ewell -103
    Opening line had Ewell opened a big fav, now he is a short dog. Value on Ewell now.
    Molly McCann +230
    Going against the market on this also - line out of control. I see this going to scorecards; I'll take the Dog here.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville

    K. Holland/Di Chirico U2.5 +142
    Think odds makers are underestimating Holland's finishing ability bc he likes to toy with opponents. Di Chirico slow but KO power also. I think Holland ends this by Sub/Tko.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Current line movement (Pinnicle) for Greenville
    * wager
    McCann +230* +210
    Ewell -103* -115
    Ige +129 +115
    Holland U2.5 +142* +135

    Limited movement - nothing major. Point is CLV in MMA is negligible in my few years hitting this small market consistently, IMO. I used to track religiously- only to have it destroyed start or mid way thru the card - bettors go on tilt, hitting all the favorites/parlays. Just my experience in this sport. Anyone else notice something similar or different?

    - - - Updated - - -
    Current line movement (Pinnicle) for Greenville
    * wager
    McCann +230* +210
    Ewell -103* -115
    Ige +129 +115
    Holland U2.5 +142* +135

    Limited movement - nothing major. Point is CLV in MMA is negligible in my few years hitting this small market consistently, IMO. I used to track religiously- only to have it destroyed start or mid way thru the card - bettors go on tilt, hitting all the favorites/parlays. Just my experience in this sport. Anyone else notice something similar or different?

    I should have stated more clearly - the difference in CLV/Movement comparable to NFL/CFB, bases, Baskets.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Molly "the can" McCann +2.30
    Easy...tough British C*nt.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    Dan Ige +129
    Good value

    Ige +1.29
    Good fight... Aguilar stock went up with that loss IMO. Played out how I expected.
    2-0 + 3.59 so far.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville

    K. Holland/Di Chirico U2.5 +142
    Think odds makers are underestimating Holland's finishing ability bc he likes to toy with opponents. Di Chirico slow but KO power also. I think Holland ends this by Sub/Tko.
    Odds makers had it right, I misjudged the pace and pressure.

    2-1 +2.59
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    I'm excited for Korean zombie fight. He studies and finds holes in guys game and adjust - underrated grappler. Makes a living biting down on mouth peice and throwing hands in pocket. His prime has past, and took a visious KO 7months ago at closing bell - he had the fight won. Renato Moicano tough and skilled and coming into his own as a fighter...im conflicted. Dog or pass. Don't wanna over shoot my position on a minor card so I will hold tight for now. Zombie +180 looks juicy.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville
    Prelims
    Andre Ewell -103
    Opening line had Ewell opened a big fav, now he is a short dog. Value on Ewell now.
    Ewell +1.00
    Hands too much for the jiu jitsu specialist.
    3-1 +3.59
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    I'm excited for Korean zombie fight. He studies and finds holes in guys game and adjust - underrated grappler. Makes a living biting down on mouth peice and throwing hands in pocket. His prime has past, and took a visious KO 7months ago at closing bell - he had the fight won. Renato Moicano tough and skilled and coming into his own as a fighter...im conflicted. Dog or pass. Don't wanna over shoot my position on a minor card so I will hold tight for now. Zombie +180 looks juicy.

    " Korean Zombie" Jung +180
    It's Time !!!
    This one is not for the faint of heart. GL
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Greenville
    Korean Zombie +1.80
    Obviously a bit of variance in our favor with that quick finish - but like I commented ealier he is a student of the game and makes adjustments.

    Tonight 4-1 +5.39
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    YTD 14 - 11 +7.14
    High variance sport - good example was my last pick; clear path to victory established- but .58 seconds ? No capper can see that scenario playing out.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    BTW Zombie closed at +191 SMFH. As I posted earlier...CLV hard to judge in this market unless you know WHO the action is coming from.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    Demian Maia -166
    Past his prime, but servicible enough on feet to stay safe - and a teir 1 Strangle Artist on ground.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    Demian Maia -166
    Past his prime, but servicible enough on feet to stay safe - and a teir 1 Strangle Artist on ground.

    Maia line moved quickly - I'm not a fan of laying # with older fighters but with his pedigree and resume' I think the fair line is -190ish IMO.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC 239 July 6th

    Ben "Funky" Askren -216

    Best wrestler/ Grappler; who before March of this year never fought in the UFC. Undefeated One and Belator 170lb Champion. Jorge Masvidal has had a bit of resurgence in his long career, he will have to figure out to stop multipule chain wrestling take downs and try to scatter his brain with shots as he level changes. Otherwise it will be a literal Mauling on the mat.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    Jussier Formiga +147

    Benavidez has power that must be respected in the 125lb div...but I think Formiga is better almost everywhere else. My #'s have this much closer than the 40% implied probability this line represents.

    Alot of off lines on this card - heavy value with dogs, and you guys know I love my dogs. However; if I cannot ID a clear path to victory then value is negligible. GL
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    Demian Maia - I took a large position @ multipule #'s on Maia earlier in week - Arb'ed about 3/4 of position away yesterday - I still have a nice position and still like the fight - I also like free money - and Maia still 41y/o- and I still believe he is the Picasso of strangulation artist in MMA.


    Maia/Martin U2.5 rds +125 (5Dimes)
    Correlates to Maia path to Victory, some nice props aval to those who have access to them .
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    Demian Maia - I took a large position @ multipule #'s on Maia earlier in week - Arb'ed about 3/4 of position away yesterday - I still have a nice position and still like the fight - I also like free money - and Maia still 41y/o- and I still believe he is the Picasso of strangulation artist in MMA.


    Maia/Martin U2.5 rds +125 (5Dimes)
    Correlates to Maia path to Victory, some nice props aval to those who have access to them .

    Watching Maia's odds and SMH. Not sure if i missed something -injury, illness etc or age...if it keeps moving and touch -150 i will probably add another unit on Maia. I have been buying/selling him all week but this movement Has me scratching my head.

    My play on board here remains the same - just thinking out loud.
  • milfhuntermilfhunter Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    I agree with you on Maia.. he should be able to get Martin down as others without the pedigree of Maia has. Maybe people think his recent losses to stud wrestlers play a part in the line.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    And that's what gases Maia and turns him into a zombie and loses- Elite Wrestlers. Martin got game and the right coaching/ preparation for this particular fight, but he ain't near elite.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    milfhunter wrote: »
    I agree with you on Maia.. he should be able to get Martin down as others without the pedigree of Maia has. Maybe people think his recent losses to stud wrestlers play a part in the line.

    And Martin better stick to the defensive wrestling ...getup/scramble ect. If he uses a jiu jitsu based ground defense he WILL get strangled during the first 2 takedowns.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    UFC Minneapolis
    1-2 (-1.00)
    YTD 15-13 +6.14
    My totals have been shit lately - Rocco improved ground game.
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