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    Default Line Movement, Steam and Head Fakes?

    I look at line movement quite a bit. Also look at lines where some i think is strange etc. Of course most lines seem to be around right. But I'm sure many of you know what I mean when i say certain line looks very strange.



    Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.



    From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.

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    Anyone have input on this? However it does seem like when there isn't this completely opposite line movement after the initial steam... the steamed side usually does pretty well it seems. Also in a sport like hockey, wouldn't it make sense only a sharp guy or group would know a lot? Also if someone sharp did bet Colorado to get the number that high and then the opposite steam happen right afterwards, what does that usually mean? Most likely its the same person or group right? Or it could be someone liking them but once they bet that, another sharp or group saw great odds on Minnesota and then bet big amount on Minnesota? Or could a sharp bet a big amount just to fool others thinking that is the right play? Also when it comes to hockey, anyone knows how much money it takes to move a line? Example that line moved 15 cents towards colorado in one move. Then it dropped back 20 cents a bit later on. Also anytime a move like this happens, the bet is almost always placed at bookmaker or pinnacle right since they take the biggest limits? Like if someone was a big bettor and sharp and bet the max limit at betonline or 5dimes, well pinnacle or bookmaker isn't going to move the line like this right? How much money does it take to even move a line 10 cents on one move? And it has to be someone sharp right? If it was some guy who is a huge whale and loses and bets 10k a game and decides he wants to bet 100k on a hockey game multiple times on pinnacle since they accept rebets, is that going to move the line at pinnacle and thus at other books?


    But i assume this happens a lot more in basketball and other sports right? For example i dont follow cbb at all besides knowing who are the top teams by looking at scores etc. But what i notice was lot of cbb totals... say it open at 130. It would get bet to like 136 or so. Then later on in the day, it would get bet down right to where the opening line which is 130 or so. So does this mean if you see a line like this, a sharp is betting a lot of money on one side... with plans to hammer the other side for an even bigger amount to get a bigger line? The thing is what i notice is lot of games would have totals that might open at 142. Then it goes all the way to 149. Then it close to around 142.5 etc. Because if someone could do this, aren't they basically manipulating the lines? And by doing, this, they are basically setting themselves up middles? Like if you could bet a total over 142 and then come back even more or at least even on the under 149... well you got like a 7 point middle. And i seen lot of games land between these numbers in cbb totals. Also seen lot of sides in cbb happen as well where a team would be -8 and be bet to 11.5... then have it come back down to 8.5 and game lands on 10 points for a middle.


    Thoughts on this?

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    It is too bad danshan is not around to answer some of these queries. I am sure he would have a point of view.

    I would not think too much about it donny. There are some games where money has differing opinions and the game will get ping-ponged. There was a lot of this with the GT-Minnesota bowl game I noticed. It was getting hammered back and forth.

    There are times when a game may be bet to take the other side. This does happen but probably not as often as people give it credit for and I don't think people are going to look much for narrow middles.

    Some things are just better left a mystery.

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    Well i notice this happens a low with cbb totals. What is the most likely reason? One side decide to bet big on one side and another side/group like the line now so they bet big on the other side? Or more likely its the same person or group betting big on one side and then coming back bigger on the other side?


    Well these cbb totals are opening like 145 and get bet up to 152 and down it goes back to around 145. Because if one could lay -110 and get like 144.5 over and 151.5 under and lay -110, doesn't that seem good? I thought for cbb totals, someone might be manipulating it for middles?

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Well i notice this happens a low with cbb totals. What is the most likely reason? One side decide to bet big on one side and another side/group like the line now so they bet big on the other side? Or more likely its the same person or group betting big on one side and then coming back bigger on the other side?


    Well these cbb totals are opening like 145 and get bet up to 152 and down it goes back to around 145. Because if one could lay -110 and get like 144.5 over and 151.5 under and lay -110, doesn't that seem good? I thought for cbb totals, someone might be manipulating it for middles?
    But itís not just hitting it at 144.5 and, voila, itís at 151.5. Theyíll need to keep hitting it to run it up, and do the same to bring it back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Well i notice this happens a low with cbb totals. What is the most likely reason? One side decide to bet big on one side and another side/group like the line now so they bet big on the other side? Or more likely its the same person or group betting big on one side and then coming back bigger on the other side?


    Well these cbb totals are opening like 145 and get bet up to 152 and down it goes back to around 145. Because if one could lay -110 and get like 144.5 over and 151.5 under and lay -110, doesn't that seem good? I thought for cbb totals, someone might be manipulating it for middles?
    For starters college basketball totals are fairly weak. So they tend to get blasted. Once the line moves a lot you are going to get people come in. So you can have big moves both ways as one side hits the total hard and moves it to the point that someone else wants to take the other side.

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    Hey Donny2, I was impressed that your analyzing the line movements. I monitor the line movements from 5 40am till midnight with only a 1 hour nap. Its a lot of work, but when you get the premium numbers, it makes it all worth it. Talk about getting loads of middling opps on sides and totals. Most of these middling opps just happen because the play was Team A minus 1, it goes up to Minus 2 and a half, then theres a play on Team B plus 2 and a half. If it lands on Team A minus 1, you push the single bet and win two bets on Team B plus 2 and a half. If it lands on 2, you win 3 bets. Even if you have Team A minus 1, its goes to minus 1 and a half, then they take Team B plus 1 and a half. If Team A wins by 1, you push the single bet and win 2 bets on Team B. The totals are really sweet, as far as premium numbers, and this middling opps opening up. I try to middle some of these bets, if I have 5 pure middle numbers, or more, I bet an even amount on the other side. Its nothing to get over 40, and it goes up to 43, then they bet under 43. I go with them and make a double bet on under 43. Two reasons, the added middle value, and I interpreted it as I monitored the action, that it was a legitimate play. Bottom line is, I get premium numbers on each side. You HAVE to put in the work to get numbers like this. The early bird gets the premium numbers. I am lucky to live in Vegas, because I have so many stores to shop at, and a lot have phone apps. If your not the originator of the bet, its hard to get the same numbers off the offshore books. They get hammered first, is what I have noticed. If you have a site offshore that moves their lines late, it could work. I want to give a shout out to this site. I love that they dont allow touts with fake results to advertise on here. It speaks volumes about their integrity. Any feedback on any this from the community would be greatly appreciated. There are a lot of sharp bettors on here, and I respect their opinions. I am really on here to find like minded people who live in Las Vegas. Forgive the lack of puctuation and spelling, I bought this keyboard in Mexico, and the keys are all off. lol Ty,

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    You spend 17 hours a day trying to flip a coin to determine what a line move means?

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    I spend 17 hours a day getting great numbers. The overwhelming majority of the games has a clear favorite, but some of the games are ping ponged back and forth. Those are the games that I leave on the number that allows me to win extra bets. I have been studying the line moves for 5 years, and it will educate you. I am not in this to flip coins, because it would be a surefire way to go broke, laying 11/10 on an even proposition. I do not want to work all day, but I have to, to get the best numbers. I take it personal if I miss a play, and end up on the wrong side of the bet. When a betting syndicate makes a play, and I see the number moving at several or more off shore books at once, in the same direction, I get down within a minute after I see the line move, depending on how many of my Vegas books still have the number. The more of my books that still have the number, the longer I can wait before I make my bet. If the books respect the bet and the bettors handicapping ability, I respect the bet too. The more books that get hit, the more solid the play. That is a line move to me. Thank You

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    Imagine if you could just do that without staring at the screen for 17 hours a day

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    I remember playing steam moves on G&J update about 20 years ago.

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    Did you make money Kashmir

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLineMonitor View Post
    I spend 17 hours a day getting great numbers. The overwhelming majority of the games has a clear favorite, but some of the games are ping ponged back and forth. Those are the games that I leave on the number that allows me to win extra bets. I have been studying the line moves for 5 years, and it will educate you. I am not in this to flip coins, because it would be a surefire way to go broke, laying 11/10 on an even proposition. I do not want to work all day, but I have to, to get the best numbers. I take it personal if I miss a play, and end up on the wrong side of the bet. When a betting syndicate makes a play, and I see the number moving at several or more off shore books at once, in the same direction, I get down within a minute after I see the line move, depending on how many of my Vegas books still have the number. The more of my books that still have the number, the longer I can wait before I make my bet. If the books respect the bet and the bettors handicapping ability, I respect the bet too. The more books that get hit, the more solid the play. That is a line move to me. Thank You


    Do you do this full time or recreationally? However, how would you know a big line move isn't a head fake though where the line immediately goes back the other way? Also you talk about getting lot of middles. Well when the line goes the opposite.. .what do you do then?

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    Billy Walters was the best at fake steam. Steam moves still happen all the time. Kashmir I remember g&j also. now don best still updates them everyday if u have their subscription But you will need to be on robo or some sort of proxy because your line values will become shit if you are not on it within 1 minute of the release. But you will also have to weed out what is real or fake because the initial steam play will be steamed back the other way. But would eliminate 17 of staring. However if your books are sharp they will know what ur doing and give you lower limits on your action

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    Hey Donny2 I am going to do the line monitoring full time when football starts up. I plan on doing it the rest of my life. I plan on working my azz off for aprox 8 months, then take off after March Madness. The first year, I plan on working the whole year. Where do you live Donny? Have you noticed how many of the games/sides get bet for the game and 1st and 2nd half? Keep up the good work, becoz it will pay off. Hard work always does.

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