Betting Talk

Duke/EMU

the executerthe executer Senior Member
edited November 2018 in Sports Betting
Well I guess we all know about Duke. Holy crap!
What you might not know about is EMU. They're 3-0 and I will list their amazing accomplishments thus far.
1. Beat NAIA Rochester college, at EMU, by 10. A game they trailed in with 8 minutes to go. Oh and thats Rochester MI. in case you were wondering.
2. Beat Drexel at EMU by 4 points, a game in which was tied with just over a minute to go.
3. They DEMOLISHED another NAIA-member team, Goshen, by 23 points in their last game, again at EMU

Now they are going to play the #1 team in the land at Cameron Indoor Stadium. A team that beat Kentucky by damn near 40. The line on this game is 25.5 and we all know they could cover 55 if they wanted to but I am not sure how Coach K will play the second half on this one. The halftime line is 15.5 If Duke is not up by 25 at the half I would be as shocked as anything that could happen in sports.

THE PLAY.... DUKE -15.5 first half

glta

Comments

  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    And you dont this was priced into the opening lines? You think the oddsmakers want to just let everybody bet Duke at a discount?

    Sorry for being a jerk.

    EMU is 318th in adjusted tempo on Kenpom and they play a Boheim style zone(their coach is a Boheim disciple). They are able to anchor this zone with a capable 7 footer. I think they slow this down and make Duke a jump shooting team, which they are capable of lighting it up, but baskets will not be nearly as easy. That Army game was not that impressive. With that being said, I have not bet EMU yet. I am looking very hard at the under though.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Not being a jerk and I understand your point. You don't have to score 50 before halftime to be up by 16 at the half though. How can oddsmakers really evaluate a team thats played 2 games with four starting freshmen? I don't think they can, nor can you or myself. I just can go off of what I've seen ( and I did not watch any of Army game ) and what I think will happen. I do not see many teams that can slow down this Duke team, especially EMU who gave up 39 to Rochester MI in their opener, where 4 out of 5 starters shot 57.8% or better for Rochester.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Again, I didn't watch the Army game but here are their stats as STARTERS

    Shot 51% from field, including 46% from 3 on 26 attempts
    Had 20 assist in the game
    35 rebounds in the game
    8 blocks.

    That sounds pretty solid to me.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Understood. There are going to be some times to bet against this young Duke team early. Im not sure this is one of them. I think everyone is going to realize that Kentucky is not that good and had a very poor game plan against Duke. Army had a much better game plan of slowing it down and just making backdoor cuts. I mean Army was literally within a few baskets with 12 minutes to go in Cameron as a 40 point dog. Duke is just oozing with talent and these freshman are as good as advertised. However, they are freshman and I don't think they are going to be nearly as efficient in the half court.

    Im not sure this is the time to step in front of Duke and back the pup, but the contrarian in me is sure liking the set up. Many of the consensus sites have Duke tickets at over 80%. The public is not always wrong and blindly betting against the public is not a long-term winning strategy, but it is definitely a tool you want to use in your overall handicapping. I hope you win the first half bet. I have no plans of backing EMU in the first half. We'll see.

    You are right about EMU's SOS. It is complete dog shit.

    BOL
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Thank you, you too. I agree with what you're saying. There will be a time and place but tonight will not be it. Now, things can happen with injuries or coach taking guys out early, refs... you name it but even with all that I see complete domination tonight. But first half does try to eliminate some of the things we both pointed out.
    Thank you for the conversation. You also might be spot on with the under in tis game, although its hard to judge.
  • jablo1312jablo1312 Junior Member
    edited November 2018
    Well it was probably priced into the opening line to some degree, but not enough considering it got bet from -13.5 to -15.5 earlier this morning.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    You guys make good points. However, I wouldn't reference the Army game. That was a Coach K "relationship" game.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    You guys make good points. However, I wouldn't reference the Army game. That was a Coach K "relationship" game.

    It's a team heavily reliant on freshman, so its hard to throw away 1 of their 2 games. I would say that you should discard the UK more, since the cats are way overrated and probably had the worst game plan possible.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Well I guess we all know about Duke. Holy crap!
    What you might not know about is EMU. They're 3-0 and I will list their amazing accomplishments thus far.
    1. Beat NAIA Rochester college, at EMU, by 10. A game they trailed in with 8 minutes to go. Oh and thats Rochester MI. in case you were wondering.
    2. Beat Drexel at EMU by 4 points, a game in which was tied with just over a minute to go.
    3. They DEMOLISHED another NAIA-member team, Goshen, by 23 points in their last game, again at EMU

    Now they are going to play the #1 team in the land at Cameron Indoor Stadium. A team that beat Kentucky by damn near 40. The line on this game is 25.5 and we all know they could cover 55 if they wanted to but I am not sure how Coach K will play the second half on this one. The halftime line is 15.5 If Duke is not up by 25 at the half I would be as shocked as anything that could happen in sports.

    THE PLAY.... DUKE -15.5 first half

    glta

    Good call. Easy winner
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Thanks Stricknine! It was. I thought it was the perfect combination of Duke being great, at home and EMU being pretty bad.
    I don't underestimate your advice on being too high on Duke though and there will definitely be a game to get on their opponent as oddsmakers will eventually make the lines too high.
  • sunningdalesunningdale Member
    edited November 2018
    Great call
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Great call

    Thanks to all. I was persuaded by both your arguments - EMU will be hapless but also try to clog things up.

    First half Duke and the full game under both hit.
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