Betting Talk

CBB

StricknineStricknine Senior Member
edited January 2019 in Sports Betting
(0-0)

770 Wofford +10.5

I hear a lot of folks talking about how this is big time revenge game for the heels, since Wofford won in the dome last year. I'm not buying it. I don't see the heels coming into this game sleeping either, because they know damn well Magee and Jackson killed them last year. This is the biggest game in Jerry Richardson stadium's short history, and the demand for the tickets was so strong that no tickets were available to the public.

The real angle here is that UNC is starting a freshman at point guard who has shown me to be pretty fast and loose with the ball. Coby White is going to be a good player but he tends to be a little too aggressive and I can see that leading to turnovers in early part of his career. Backup PG Seventh Woods is more turnover prone.

Also, UNC still appears to be unable to guard the three. They were probably the worst defensive three point team in the country last year, so they are likely to improve. I do think that Roy will put K Williams on Magee, since Kenny is the best defender, but being the best defender on the heels is not a very high bar.

I do think the heels win this game, but you are getting a lot of value with Terriers just because UNC is such a big name and ranked high. I see this game being close.

UNC 81 Woff 77
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Comments

  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (0-1)

    529 Heels -17.5
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Stricknine wrote: »
    (0-1)

    529 Heels -17.5

    Sorry for no write up. Elon is terrible. I know they return a lot of starters, but if they are mostly bad players who cares. Roy is doing Elon a favor by allowing them to open up new arena with a game against UNC. Freshman should be more relaxed and I see this one getting ugly quickly. Elon is one of the worst rebounding teams and Carolina is generally one of the best.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (1-1)

    723 Stanford over 156

    These two coaches know each other quite well. Haase played for Roy at Kansas and coached under him for years at Carolina. He knows Roy is going to want to push the tempo, and there is probably not much he is going to be able to do to stop it with a bunch of sophomores and freshman. Actually, Stanford likes to push the tempo themselves.

    The heels finally get their first home game and I could see them having a better shooting night, since they have had to play in two very small venues to start the season. The Dean Dome is one of the larger college basketball arenas in the country, so it could affect the Cardinal scoring some. With that being said, I expect the Heels to cover the majority of this over anyway. Carolina plays 10+ guys this year with not much of a fall off in talent. The player with the most NBA caliber talent doesn't even start. They have two players who can legitimately run point, and all of the bigs can run the floor. The Cardinal will likely be worn out by the latter part of second half translating to easy UNC baskets. I think the Heels could definitely cover this number as well. I may add them later.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (2-1)

    727 Eastern Michigan Under 155

    EMU returns the core of their team from last year and added two upperclassmen transfers. Their coach is a Boheim disciple who plays 2-3 zone exclusively. They also play a very slow tempo. I can see the zone and tempo frustrating the young dookies. They played at Indiana and at Cuse last year, so I don't see them being too shell shocked in Cameron. Also, the opening total was 147 with the oddsmakers knowing they were going to get hit with mostly over bets. I know it doesn't take much to move numbers early in college ball, but this move seems to be an overreaction.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    727 EMU +26.5
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    between the two of us we had the game and the o/u nailed. good call yourself on o/u
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    between the two of us we had the game and the o/u nailed. good call yourself on o/u

    Just a terrible call on EMU. Thanks. Under was easy only because emu sucked so much.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (3-2)

    817 Tenn Tech under 157.5

    Roy has been bitching about the Heels second half defense against Stanford since postgame press conference. Defense has been major emphasis all week. Tennessee Tech is about as bad you can get offensively. They rank 274th in FG percentage, 278th in 3-point FG percentage, and 304th in assist-turnover ratio. Carolina will be able to name the score but there will be a major focus on improving defensively. I could see Roy playing around with some different line-ups to see which ones he likes best as a defensive unit, since this is a game Carolina basically has no chance of losing. If you do feel like laying the 37 points, be careful about garbage time because everybody is going to get some burn for this one. Gun to my head---lay the points.

    BOL
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (3-3)

    558 San Diego St +15.5

    I guess I am just a glutton for punishment. All I hear and read is that this Duke team is unbeatable and is just going to boatrace every team out of the gym. There is definitely some truth to that assessment, but these freshman have yet to be tested. I think this is the game where they get their first real test. SDST returns an experienced team that beat Gonzaga last year. They knew the Zags where going to run and try to make it an up and down game. To adjust for that, the Aztecs sent three guys back and only two to the boards. I bet they do the same thing today. If you let this Duke team get out and running, game, set, match.

    Don't look too much into the last time these two teams played in the tourney. Most of the Aztecs had the stomach bug and they were never in the game. I just had the norovirus and the thought of playing a basketball game during or right after that would have been hell on earth.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I think this is a good call. I’m leaning like this... obviously under for game but Duke -9 first half but SDSU for game +15.5
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (3-4)

    st francis/heels under 157.5
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Stricknine wrote: »
    (3-4)

    st francis/heels under 157.5


    Once again major emphasis on defense in practice. That has been the primary focus in practice since second half of Stanford game. Roy has threatened to take the rims off the goals almost daily. Gotta think they lock it up on D. This is another big total so it stays under if St Francis doesn't contribute much.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I can't get this game through my guy. I wanted first half...whatever the line lol. Im guessing it would be 15ish
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I can't get this game through my guy. I wanted first half...whatever the line lol. Im guessing it would be 15ish

    15.5/75
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Stricknine wrote: »
    Once again major emphasis on defense in practice. That has been the primary focus in practice since second half of Stanford game. Roy has threatened to take the rims off the goals almost daily. Gotta think they lock it up on D. This is another big total so it stays under if St Francis doesn't contribute much.

    Incredibly frenetic pace. St Francis running down the court to jack 3s. Heels playing as fast as they can. Lucky that this stays under 100 first half. Ain’t for a lack of trying
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    They covered that 15.5 though. Hope you got it
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    They covered that 15.5 though. Hope you got it

    No. It would have been very lucky. Basically never covering that whole half. Close half on 7-0 run to win by half point. This st Francis team is very undisciplined. Wish I would have.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I found a guy who took it and got lucky indeed. I just out what I won on second half -11.5
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Won by a half point lost by a half point on second half. Unreal
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (3-5)

    745 Auburn over 162

    - - - Updated - - -
    Stricknine wrote: »
    (3-5)

    745 Auburn over 162

    Bet this immediately. Actually got 161 with local. This number has nowhere to go but up. This should be an exciting game to watch.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Damn, opened at 164.5 for me
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    So, how about the over 78.5 first half? Its lower for a side and you don't have to worry about other slow finish like yesterdays game?
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I took over 78.5

    went back to bet more about 5 minutes later and its already 80.5

    Good call and thanks for the quick tip
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Very surprised this opened so low. Bruce Pearl is not someone who backs down from a fight. He is usually the instigator. Love the guard play out of Auburn and Duke is head and shoulders the best offensive team in the country. If this tempo plays out as expected, i think you are safe betting this at any number under 170.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Any thoughts on Duke -6 first half? I almost feel like riding the wave until it crashes... Auburn might get burned by trying to fight fire with fuel....
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Any thoughts on Duke -6 first half? I almost feel like riding the wave until it crashes... Auburn might get burned by trying to fight fire with fuel....

    That’s the way I would lean.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ahhhhh you've come to the dark side! lmao
    Stricknine wrote: »
    That’s the way I would lean.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    537 Hoosiers under 161.5
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    (4-6)

    Maryland +3.5
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    (4-7)

    Heels -13

    Classic situation of buying low. Carolina has played one of the toughest schedules this year and ND has played one of the easiest. Don’t look too much into the Louisville game. Heels routinely lay eggs on these noon games and give louisville credit. They punched the heels in the mouth and early and there was never a recovery. This is set up for a blow out.
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