Betting Talk

Mid-term Elections

RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
edited November 2018 in Sports Betting
Voting is Tuesday Nov. 6th. Plenty of opportunities to win some wagers. It's apparent the Democrats will win the House and the GOP will win the Senate. When handicapping, disregard the biased polls from Fox, CNN or other major media outlets. Fox's obsessive Hannity is pitching a "tight race" for the NJ Senate. Yeah ok Sean?? Menendez with all his baggage is still a prohibitive favorite.

Comments

  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Took McSally at even in AZ..seems like the number has been changing quite a bit..one would think the news of the Green candidate Sinema would help her out. Sinema does her best not to identity as a Dem so it also work against her..also strange with all the mail in ballots here.

    Sean is just hoping that NJ race is close..

    also took a 6 teamer leaving up one spot with Nelson, Hawley, Cruz, Manchin, and Brown..hoping to fill with Nascar next week..
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I like your ticket. Loaded with chalk, but no worries of a back-door cover. Leery of Nelson. Fla tuff to 'cap.

    R U in Pittsburg Ks?
  • acetotenacetoten Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    "When handicapping, disregard the biased polls from Fox, CNN or other major media outlets."

    I think you can disregard all polls if you can think back to a couple years ago...................
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2018
    I was surprised that 5D allowed parlays with their political lines. I believe there is a degree of correlation, so I took a few shots with $50 parlays the other day.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Voting is Tuesday Nov. 6th. Plenty of opportunities to win some wagers. It's apparent the Democrats will win the House and the GOP will win the Senate. When handicapping, disregard the biased polls from Fox, CNN or other major media outlets. Fox's obsessive Hannity is pitching a "tight race" for the NJ Senate. Yeah ok Sean?? Menendez with all his baggage is still a prohibitive favorite.

    Reminds me of the time when the late Tony of 5D chewed me out on the phone because I put a bet against Judge Roy Moore shortly following the news that he was accused of inappropriate contact with underage girls.

    1. CNN and Fox News are among the best pollsters. FiveThirtyEight systematically rates them and gives them very high ratings. CNN is an "A-" and Fox is an "A". They adjust CNN by 1% because it has overly favored Republicans historically. They don't adjust Fox at all as historically they are equally likely to miss in either direction.
    2. I think Menendez in NJ is a good play at -400 or better. Every poll has him in the lead and the undecided will hold their noses and vote for him.
    3. BM has -225 for the Dems to take the house, which I think is valuable at -450 or better.
    4. Rosedale in MT at +430 I think also had value, but it was bet down to +200. Still think it has a little value. The 3rd party candidate was included in polling but has now dropped out and thrown his weight to Rosedale. Predictit has it at 70/30 for Tester now.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2018
    Reminds me of the time when the late Tony of 5D chewed me out on the phone because I put a bet against Judge Roy Moore shortly following the news that he was accused of inappropriate contact with underage girls.

    I made a bunch on that race too. Don’t remember if limits were $50 or $100, but I ended up with 4 figures in play. I’d hit it, price would fall, I’d hit it again, someone else would push it back up, rinse and repeat. Someone must have lost a bundle because Moore $ kept pushing the line back to where it started every time I went back and played it.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    4. Rosedale in MT at +430 I think also had value, but it was bet down to +200. Still think it has a little value. The 3rd party candidate was included in polling but has now dropped out and thrown his weight to Rosedale. Predictit has it at 70/30 for Tester now.

    2/3rd's of Montana has already voted when Tester had a huge polling lead. Trump's late push there is too late. I need Tester.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    I like your ticket. Loaded with chalk, but no worries of a back-door cover. Leery of Nelson. Fla tuff to 'cap.

    R U in Pittsburg Ks?


    I am in Phoenix..that Nelson race is tricky saw it moved again today.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Trump considers himself a hybrid(NY/FL). He has no clout in NY so he's pushing in FL for DeSantis and Scott. He's being equally challenged by Obama stumping for Nelson and Gillum. I couldn't find an edge for either in the #s I saw.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Yup saw both stumping...curious as to how much DeSantis and Scott are effected by the hurricane in the panhandle.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Beware if betting Georgia gubernatorial race Kemp(-220) versus Abrams. Ask office what happens if a run-off in December. Action or No? 3rd Party Libertarian Candidate could cause neither party to have atleast 50% votes. Knowing offshore, they'd wing it to their advantage past post.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    TommyL wrote: »
    I was surprised that 5D allowed parlays with their political lines. I believe there is a degree of correlation, so I took a few shots with $50 parlays the other day.

    I wouldn't broadcast that, no way tony would have let you do that. agree its very coorelated.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    WTH happened to objective reporting? Hannity is an obsessed Republican leading the Fox cheerleaders. Wolf Blitzer if praying for Democratic victories in the House on CNN. I'm winning and still disgusted with the bias reporting.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    WTH happened to objective reporting? Hannity is an obsessed Republican leading the Fox cheerleaders. Wolf Blitzer if praying for Democratic victories in the House on CNN. I'm winning and still disgusted with the bias reporting.

    Nelson going to shaft me...
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    The Democrats have a 'live-one' in Beto O'Rourke. Despite losing to Cruz, he's their best chance to beat Trump in '20. He has the donation power of the Left. Deep pockets Hollywood helped raise his campaign mega-millions. I guess they liken this Ivy Leaguer to JFK. The only dirt the Carl Roves of today could muster on him was an old college newspaper quote about an actress. Paraphrasing, "her only redeeming qualities were her big breasts and tight ass."
    Cool guy with enthusiasm that requires a drug test. Check out this f-bomb he made last night on national tv.
    https://variety.com/2018/politics/news/beto-orourke-drops-f-bomb-on-live-tv-during-concession-speech-1203021779/
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Nelson and Gillum fucked me good. Had some sweet prices on them. Never again with Florida. Nelson will have a recount but doubt it changes anything. Made most back on the Dems winning the house but I thought I was gonna have a grand night.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    The Dems winning the House was sweet but an expensive risk. Not much of a sweater especially with Wolf Blitzer rooting along.
    Getting Senate results in NV was like pulling teeth. The Secretary of Elections gave out some lame excuse for the delay. They were just disorganized. First partial returns looked like a Heller landslide. He was ready for a victory speech. lol. Oops wrong score.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    The Dems winning the House was sweet but an expensive risk. Not much of a sweater especially with Wolf Blitzer rooting along.
    Getting Senate results in NV was like pulling teeth. The Secretary of Elections gave out some lame excuse for the delay. They were just disorganized. First partial returns looked like a Heller landslide. He was ready for a victory speech. lol. Oops wrong score.

    I saw the last vote was only cast at 9:51 local time..sure rural votes were in when the closed hence the lead for Heller..met the guy at the Vegas race in March, seemed to not like my interview questions, which I didn't think were over the top.

    Still think FL Senate is Scott's unless boxes of ballots were "misplaced" like in the Franken race years back..
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    LOL, Al Franken and misplaced ballots. Was good as a comedian but picked the wrong era to be photographed grabbing a woman's chest.
    The first excuse the NV Election site used for the delay was the overwhelming crowds at closing time. Their 'honorable' remark was that nobody in line would be denied to vote. The Republicans were gathered at the South Point Casino waiting and waiting and drinking, etc. Fake results for about one half hour.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Menendez was practically free money in that state...
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    crapped out on my parlay yesterday..took the +150 fave in NASCAR..not looking good for McSally as well..
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    McSally blew a 4th quarter lead with some mysterious uncounted ballots. Sinema is drawing clear. Still, most books haven't graded it yet. Never seen such a cut-throat mid-term election. Times are really changing with things like recanted concessions, law suits, etc.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    McSally blew a 4th quarter lead with some mysterious uncounted ballots. Sinema is drawing clear. Still, most books haven't graded it yet. Never seen such a cut-throat mid-term election. Times are really changing with things like recanted concessions, law suits, etc.

    Very interesting state here..Kyl very moderate more like McCain than Trump..and very popular. Speculation is Gov names McSally as Kyl's replacement since he said he wasn't serving past January. No one else to really name in the state minus a relative unknown.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    McSally blew a 4th quarter lead with some mysterious uncounted ballots. Sinema is drawing clear. Still, most books haven't graded it yet. Never seen such a cut-throat mid-term election. Times are really changing with things like recanted concessions, law suits, etc.
    Ronbets,
    Arizona is not about mysterious votes. They have early voting and don’t open the ballots until Election Day to check signatures.
    Lawsuits have long been a part of the electoral process, we have a decentralized election system but a Federal law that trumps state laws, which trump county law, which trumps county and local administrator judgement calls. Concessions have never been a relevant feature of electoral outcomes, only the cards talk.
    Also Al Franken didn’t grab the woman’s boobs, he just posed for a photo pretending to do so on a flight full of soldiers and in view of the woman’s husband. Not his finest hour but certainly not A breast trope of the type that Bill Clinton and Trump have been credibly accused of.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Ronbets,
    Arizona is not about mysterious votes. They have early voting and don’t open the ballots until Election Day to check signatures.
    Lawsuits have long been a part of the electoral process, we have a decentralized election system but a Federal law that trumps state laws, which trump county law, which trumps county and local administrator judgement calls. Concessions have never been a relevant feature of electoral outcomes, only the cards talk.
    Also Al Franken didn’t grab the woman’s boobs, he just posed for a photo pretending to do so on a flight full of soldiers and in view of the woman’s husband. Not his finest hour but certainly not A breast trope of the type that Bill Clinton and Trump have been credibly accused of.


    Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes set up four “Emergency Voting” locations(all 4 in heavily dem areas mind you), despite two problems: (1) there was no emergency, and (2) after asking permission from the Board of Supervisors to set up the “Emergency Voting” locations and being told “No,” he did it anyway. He also then mixed these votes in with the legit ballots..game set and match
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    kcburgh wrote: »
    Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes set up four “Emergency Voting” locations(all 4 in heavily dem areas mind you), despite two problems: (1) there was no emergency, and (2) after asking permission from the Board of Supervisors to set up the “Emergency Voting” locations and being told “No,” he did it anyway. He also then mixed these votes in with the legit ballots..game set and match

    The early vote locations were established because people had been disuaded by long lines in early voting. It meant that early voting was allowed for two extra days for those who might have to work on election day. He was never told no, a Republican elections official told him "Yes, you are allowed to do this, but please segregate these votes in case we want to challenge later". The GOP official didnt have authority to make him segregate the votes, so the election official didnt touch the ballots, they counted them with all the others. They amounted to 3,000 votes.

    A realistic impact is that Sinema wins these votes by 10 points, and that 60% would have been made Tuesday if not on the weekend. So I put impact at 180 votes. But certainly not more than 3,000.

    Sinema is up by 35,800 votes, and this will expand before the counting is done.

    In summary, not at all "mysterious", not at all illegal (GOP not even suing, this is a controversy that exists only in right-wing media), and not anywhere close to the difference in the election.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Also Al Franken didn’t grab the woman’s boobs, he just posed for a photo pretending to do so on a flight full of soldiers and in view of the woman’s husband. Not his finest hour but certainly not A breast trope of the type that Bill Clinton and Trump have been credibly accused of.

    Paddyboy, wtf do you come up with this defense for Al Franken? Let's get a little deeper. Here is a quote from the victim Leann Tweeden earlier in the flight. Her husband present??
    “He came at me, put his hand on the back of my head, mashed his lips against mine and aggressively stuck his tongue in my mouth,” Tweeden writes in a post released Thursday. “I immediately pushed him away with both of my hands against his chest and told him if he ever did that to me again I wouldn’t be so nice about it next time.”
    If I'm prosecutor, that's sexual harassment/assault.
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