Betting Talk

How many points is home field advantage worth?

donny2donny2 Senior Member
edited November 2018 in Sports Betting
n the nfl, I always heard 3 was the number. I believe the number is 2.7 or so with an article i read. But of course some team's home field advantage is much bigger than certain teams. So anytime i look at an nfl line, i would subtract 3 points for home field and subtract another 3 if this was played in the other team's home field. Thus a team -6 at home would be around a pickem on the road.


In the nba, i read its around 3 as well but of course certain teams are definitely going to be higher like the warriors etc. But like the nfl, is 6 points the number when you go from home to away?


Now what about college football and college basketball? I know those home field is much bigger. So even though i don't watch these 2 sports anymore, if a team was say -8 at home, i would not be surprised if it was a pickem on the road. Or a team that might be +3 on the road is say -7 at home. But you would say college basketball home field is probably the biggest of all the american sports? Thus nfl, nba, ncaaf, ncaab, mlb and nhl... I would take a guess and say it would be something like this in this order


1. cbb
2. cfb
3. nfl
4. nhl
5. nba
6. mlb


How many points does home field typically swing for ncaab on average? What about ncaaf? I would probably say instead of a 6 point swing in the nfl and nba, its probably like 6-14 points in cbb? Thus home field could be worth anywhere from 2 to 8 points or even more? For ncaaf, i would say home field is like 3-7 points? Like what is the biggest swing you would see for a ncaab and ncaaf game in terms of linemaking? Example, duke plays at home against a certain team and is say -20. On the road, its possible they could be -8 only? I recalled back then i would see teams that would lay 10 points at home in cbb when the other team and the home team seem to be very equal with the home team just a bit better.


For mlb, i always considered home field to be worth 15 cents. Is that about right? Example if a team is at home and -160. On the road they should be about -130. I think certain teams you could make it 20 cents or a bit more.


For nhl, its probably worth between 15-20 cents but more so 20 cents or even more? Thus a team that is -125 on the road is going to be at least -155 minimum at home but most likely -160 to -165 right?


I ask this because i notice how when i look at certain lines... let say an nfl team is only -3 on the road against a very bad team. My thoughts would been back then, that's a very low line. However, if you translate that to neutral field, they are -6 so 6 points better. Then at home, they would be -9. So even if the line is say them on the road of 6 points, well neutral field means 9 and home means 12 points which would look more normal.

Comments

  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Home field is probably not what it used to be with the professionalized nature of all leagues, including college basketball. which I definitely do not think has the largest advantage.

    I once read an article that studied the results of college basketball betting records and they found that road favorites covered at a rate of 54% over about four seasons. They theorized that the reason was because of the motivation for the NCAA tournament and uniformity of courts.

    That reason struck me as ridiculous and was more likely the result of a study released a few years earlier that found betting advantages with home team underdogs. The market likely subsequently overcompensated.

    I sent the professor an email asking what he thought of my alternative point of view and he did not respond apparently either not liking it or not wanting to encourage gambling degeneracy.

    Alan Boston has also said that much of his trouble is the result of the professionalization of college sports and the loss of significant home-court advantage which destroyed many of his tried-and-true betting angles.

    College basketball players in particular are now trained their entire lives playing on the road virtually year round so are not as impacted by playing away from home. These guys are now basically the Harlem Globetrotters.

    I have no idea what home advantage is these days but suspect it is slightly overvalued in all sports.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Well in cbb, im sure many of you noticed many times they would have a ranked number 1-3 team on the road against a team at home that is 10th or worst. I mean isn't that the definition of a big home field advantage? I mean that rarely happens in cfb. Also has there ever been a case where a number 1-3 team was on the road and an underdog against an unranked cbb team? I was sure something like this happened a while back.


    Okay so with the pro sports such as nba and nfl, is 3 points pretty much what is standard that should be used then?


    What about mlb and nhl? 15 cents to mlb... and 20 cents to nhl is probably what home field is worth for each sport?


    So for mlb with 20 cent lines, +130/-150, it would be -120/100 if switched? And for mlb with 10 cent lines, it would be -120/+110?


    So for nhl with 20 cent lines If its +105/-115, how would it look if home field switched? What about with 20 cent lines?

    Because for nfl and nba, i basically just subtract 3 points for home field, then another 3 if it was played in the other team's field etc. But with nhl and mlb, im not sure exactly how much cents should be used. But in general i thought 15 cents for mlb... so like a 30 cent flip. And with nhl, its 15 cents - 20 cents, so like 30 - 40 cent switch. I always thought home ice was pretty important though.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    fwiw , i have nfl teams home field advantage worth 0 to 4 pts...what would be your home field advantage for the ny giants ?? you going to give them 3 pts ?
    you would never win a game if you gave them that much of an advantage ....3 pts is a good starting point add and subtract from that
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    Well in cbb, im sure many of you noticed many times they would have a ranked number 1-3 team on the road against a team at home that is 10th or worst. I mean isn't that the definition of a big home field advantage? I mean that rarely happens in cfb. Also has there ever been a case where a number 1-3 team was on the road and an underdog against an unranked cbb team? I was sure something like this happened a while back.

    Not necessarily. Rankings are not very good and there is not a lot of difference between the No. 1 team and No. 10 team. Things are much more defined in college football than college basketball. That is why SEC teams routinely lose to teams like College of Charleston.

    But home court is significant.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    my alma mater , nice example
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    This is the kind of question that will not be responded to on BT because anyone that has a clue is not going to provide any information that anyone would incorporate into their own model. This is probably the most valuable information in the gambling market.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    R40 , thats interesting statement , so let me ask you something, if your using stats only model and it consists of home and away stats , do you add a home court/field advantage ?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    I don't use models. I am a half-ass handicapper.

    If you are betting, you are obviously going to take the home advantage into account.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    In college baskets some home courts are worth zero--- others are worth 8-10 points.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    -- others are worth 8-10 points.

    That's why BetThemDogs likes to bet them home dogs.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    This is the kind of question that will not be responded to on BT because anyone that has a clue is not going to provide any information that anyone would incorporate into their own model. This is probably the most valuable information in the gambling market.

    I can understand that. But i mean in general, how many points should home court swing? I don't think this is secret information is it?

    Example in the nfl and nba, on average its 3 points and most people know this. Thus a team -6 at home in the nfl or nba would most likely be a pickem on the road.

    But what about cfb and ncaab? I would figure cfb its like a 8-12 point swing... and for ncaab it could be 6-14 point swing.

    So for nhl and mlb... is 15-20 cents for nhl and 15 cents for mlb about right? I mean i don't think the information for nhl and mlb is top secret right? Like if a team is -150/+130 at home in mlb and nhl... then on the road... it should be -120/+100 assuming home field is about 15 cents? But if its nhl, even though i don't watch it, i feel its a bit stronger so between 15-20 cents. Thus if its 20 cents, it would be now -115/-105 on the road. Would most ppl agree on this?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2018
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    Example in the nfl and nba, on average its 3 points and most people know this. Thus a team -6 at home in the nfl or nba would most likely be a pickem on the road.

    I thought you were trying to hammer down something than the generic 3 points for each. Both football and basketball is considered 3 points from what I have seen.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Well i just wanted the generic answer. Thus im not going to ask like okay which home fields are worth more points in say cbb and cfb as i can understand that information is pretty secret.

    But what is the generic answer for mlb and nhl in terms of home field? Is it around 15 cents for mlb and 15-20 cents for nhl?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    Well i just wanted the generic answer. Thus im not going to ask like okay which home fields are worth more points in say cbb and cfb as i can understand that information is pretty secret.

    But what is the generic answer for mlb and nhl in terms of home field? Is it around 15 cents for mlb and 15-20 cents for nhl?

    Yes, 15 cents for baseball and 20 for hockey I think is the standard.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited November 2018
    Thanks for the response. Can others confirm here 15 cents for mlb and 20 cents for nhl is standard? That is what i thought of when i thought of home field advantage in those sports. I figure nhl has to be worth a bit more for some reason.
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