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    Default prop bets and why do so many people bet them

    Am not the sharpest tool in the shed , but doing this for as long as i have , I haven't seen anyone win at them.
    So , so much work involved. I was told by some sharp guy in vegas once , that the only ones that beat props , are the guys that can beat the game first.
    Is it all guessing , id like to know how much vegas makes on props during the superbowl.

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    What kind of props do you mean? Player props, for example, have some of the softest lines out there (hence the tiny limits).

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    No, just props in general. They could be soft but who is beating them ? I started looking at props a few years ago,see if there is a correlation between winning the game then the prop.
    The thing is , which props do i key on. In baseball when most of my bets are dogs, what should i look at ? It takes so much time, so much data to go over. Is it even worth it? if I remember correctly , goats you do a lot of prop betting , am i wrong ?

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    I built my BR betting NBA and NFL player props but that was back in the early 2000's when everything was much easier in the offshore world.

    I eventually stopped betting NBA props b/c I stopped following the league altogether. I still bet NFL player props but it's mostly b/c it involves very little work.

    "Props in general" is way too vague of a description. Some (like most of what I bet) have very little to do with even trying to cap the game side/total. Others are likely more highly correlated.

    My prop focus is too narrow and my level of sharpness far too low to give you any additional advice, sorry.

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    no worries, thanks for input.
    luck

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    Am not the sharpest tool in the shed , but doing this for as long as i have , I haven't seen anyone win at them.
    So , so much work involved. I was told by some sharp guy in vegas once , that the only ones that beat props , are the guys that can beat the game first.
    Is it all guessing , id like to know how much vegas makes on props during the superbowl.
    So many people bet them for the same reasons they bet anything else: its entertaining and they "think" they can win. I don't think you've "seen " anyone win at them because most sharps don't bother with them--not just because of the low limits but because those low limits get cut even further rather quickly when you do win. As for the only guys beating them are the ones that can beat the game first....thats true and false in a sense: if you don't have proper handicapping skills in general I don't think you're likely to beat anything long term. But I would say its easier to beat props than to beat sides or totals. As Goats said some props have particularly soft lines.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    No, just props in general. They could be soft but who is beating them ? I started looking at props a few years ago,see if there is a correlation between winning the game then the prop.
    The thing is , which props do i key on. In baseball when most of my bets are dogs, what should i look at ? It takes so much time, so much data to go over. Is it even worth it? if I remember correctly , goats you do a lot of prop betting , am i wrong ?
    I think "game props" likeno score in the first inning are much more of a crapshoot than player props. As for baseball I think strikeout props are the easiest to bet however that is NOT to say they are easy, just easier to handicap than other baseball props. Do you have a high K/9 pitcher facing one of the highest strikeout teams in the league with an ump who has a high K %? -- something like that. You can also find decent player matchup props particularly utilizing lefty/righty splits. I'd focus more on player matchups with hits/runs/rbi's rather than total bases matchups because a bloop double or something can really hurt you whereas if you find a player matchup where you like the player's team to put up a crooked number it gives you more opportunities to add to your player's total. As for whether its "worth it" depends widely on how successful you are and how much you can get down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northeast View Post
    So many people bet them for the same reasons they bet anything else: its entertaining and they "think" they can win. I don't think you've "seen " anyone win at them because most sharps don't bother with them--not just because of the low limits but because those low limits get cut even further rather quickly when you do win. As for the only guys beating them are the ones that can beat the game first....thats true and false in a sense: if you don't have proper handicapping skills in general I don't think you're likely to beat anything long term. But I would say its easier to beat props than to beat sides or totals. As Goats said some props have particularly soft lines.
    ^^^so many things wrong in this reply^^^

    there are definitely sharp groups crushing props, and they aren't playing them because they are "entertaining".

    one thing you do have correct is that the limits can get cut quickly, which is always a challenge for the groups -- but there are plenty of unsuspecting pph bookies out there that can be exploited with movers and beards

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    Quote Originally Posted by lakemonster View Post
    ^^^so many things wrong in this reply^^^

    there are definitely sharp groups crushing props, and they aren't playing them because they are "entertaining".

    one thing you do have correct is that the limits can get cut quickly, which is always a challenge for the groups -- but there are plenty of unsuspecting pph bookies out there that can be exploited with movers and beards
    Thanks for the snarky reply. Care to elaborate what else is wrong? Jets asked why SO many people play them and I still stand by what I said. Obviously sharps don't bet for entertainment. Squares do bet for entertainment and they think they can win. And yes PPH's can be exploited but most bettors aren't using a ton of PPH's and beards. Jets was asking what he should focus on and since I've seen him post a lot of bases I thought the strikeout props and player matchups were a good place to start. But if you'd like to help him exploit PPHs or point out anything I've misrepresented then go for it.

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    guys , first and foremost ,thanks for the input . Big help. Don't get in an argument though, please.

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    I like betting no score 1st inning. Quick win or loss,

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    Ticket 10/21/2018
    11:10 AM Money Line Football #46117 Yes, special teams or defensive TD +200 for Game 10/21/2018 1:00 PM
    $250.00 $500.00 buffalo/indianapolis

    my prop bet for today

    every book hates prop bettors... they lose their advantage in this area... trust me their are groups pounding these plays and getting cut off or limits reduced every week....
    Last edited by Predator; 10-21-2018 at 10:40 AM. Reason: spelling

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    So how much work did you put into that bet ,any one reason , balt great d is going to pick brees off a few times and take one back

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    What are the most popular props that sharps are betting then? Such as the type of pro. Are they more team props or player props?


    For nba, it would be a player's points, rebounds or assists. But the juice is high for these. For mlb, there are strikeout props, but the juice is 30 cents at least. For nfl, the props seem to be 20-30 cents which seem to be more reasonable.


    Example pinnacle has player pros for mlb players, nba players and nfl etc. But the juice is like 35-40 cents. Most props are juiced 30 cents at least for players props. For team props, there are 20 cent lines but many offers make it 30 cents. However, do these sharps overcome the juice? I mean when both sides of a strikeout prop for a pitcher is laying juice, it seems to be very hard to do it.

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    30c lines are common and still very beatable.

    There's a reason for the added juice and low limits.

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