I hear ya... I dint play it, unfortunately. But you helped with a couple nice winners tonight. Thanks. I loved Toronto play but that OTT/NYR over was an excellent call. Thanks!
Heres something I never thought of until I did some research on it. But third period overs go over 1.5 quite a dang bit. in fact, in last 3 nights alone the third periods have gone over 18 of 23 games. I am not sure why, but thats a hell of a %...78% to be exact. Obviously the juice is semi high but at that % its worth it. I know you like first periods and they're similar and Ive won some money off them and from some of your plays, but I thought I'd throw that out to you as well as I had no idea thirds were so good.
Sure, that helps.
And to be fair I went back another 58 games before this last 23 game stretch and it was 32 overs 26 unders. Still at 55%.
Overall % for last 81 games, spanning 12 days, is 62% overs ( 50 for 81 ).
Well I have recently been looking at 3rd period goals and while I agree the trend lately has been >1.5 the juice is very very high often -190 . Over the years I have learned big juice on favs will eat away profits. Thats why as a rule I rarely play anything over -150 . Also why I play -.5 reg plays since often they are + money. As you can see I am only a little above 50% but up plus units . Not saying your thinking is flawed but looking at the numbers you have researched you have to pick your spots.
It is higher than first period but less than second period. I may try to track the games that feature the lowest scoring 10 teams and see if theres a better percentage if this teams were left out of the equation. So basically, maybe just go with the top 65-70% to see if the percentages go up.
Comments
Heres to beaten the man!
tb -.5 reg -153
pitt 131
minn -.5 reg -124
tor -.5 reg 105
fla -.5 reg 105
tb -.5 reg -112
wpg -.5 reg -133
edm -.5 reg 105
colo -.5 reg 103
buff/fla >6 -108
Oct 30-28 +4.91
Nov 43-42 +2,64
73-70 +7.55
tor 111
det tt <2.5 -123
nsh -.5 reg -135
wsh -.5 reg -116
all part of gambling but that was a bad beat ...how do you blow a 5-1 lead
dal tt >2.5 -137
ott tt >2.5 -133
wpg/nyi >6 -114
maybe something on late games
edm/stl >5.5 -104
car/sj >5.5 -117
chi/ana >5.5 -124
tor tt >3.5 -144
tor/det 1st per >1.5 -130
cbj/phil >6.5 -111
pitt -.5 reg -110
some latter
minn -.5 reg 189
And to be fair I went back another 58 games before this last 23 game stretch and it was 32 overs 26 unders. Still at 55%.
Overall % for last 81 games, spanning 12 days, is 62% overs ( 50 for 81 ).
69 of last 107 games or almost 65%.
Does any of this help you Nvra, or can you lend me some insight on how to properly play these?