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    Default Basketball 2018-19

    NBA

    Spurs over 44.5 -125 (bo)

    San Antonio won 47 games last year despite Kawhi Leonard playing only 9 games. Now they add Demar Derozan who finished eighth in the MVP voting. He is coming off a career high 5.2 assists per game and should take some of the pressure off a young Dejounte Murray at point guard. Jacob Poetl may end up being much more than a throw-in to the Leonard trade as well. Expect a bounce back year from Rudy Gay after averaging a career low 21.7 minutes and 11.5 points per game last year. Marco Belinellli is back in San Antonio and adds a needed outside shooting threat. The western conference as a whole is stacked and the bottom of the Southwest division should be improved with both Memphis and Dallas seeing their season win projections rise by a number of games. However you count out Popovich and the Spurs at your own risk.

    Bulls over 28.5 -140 (bo)

    Chicago won 27 games last year in what was basically a tanking season. Zach Lavine should be fully recovered from his ACL injury and closer to the 18.9 points per game average he put up in 2016 with Minnesota. Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn should be even better in their second and third years respectively. Rookie center Wendell Carter has double double potential, new addition Jabari Parker adds more scoring punch, and Robin Lopez and Bobby Portis (hopefully limiting his punching to the scoring column this year) round out a solid frontcourt.

    Celtics division -120 (bo)

    Bostonís win total (58) is at least three games higher than Toronto (55) or Philadelphia (53) but youíre paying a near pkíem price. The price on the Celtics to win the eastern conference is only slightly cheaper (-114) than the price to win the division. Anything can happen in a seven game series but adding Irving and Hayward makes for an extremely deep, talented, versatile roster and a clear division favorite. Jaylen Brown continues to impress and Jayson Tatum should get even better with age as Brown has. Brad Stevens has become one of the best coaches in the league and has this team well prepared and ready to play every game no matter who is or isnít in the lineup. The Raptors won the division last year but you have to wonder what kind of chemistry they will have after firing the coach of the year (replaced with a first time NBA head coach), and trading their best player (and point guard Lowryís best friend) for a guy who didnít want to come here and doesnít seem likely to stay here. Philadelphia may be a bigger threat to win the division than Toronto but they have a very similar team to last year and I still question Simmons and/or Fultz or McConnell closing out close games with the ball in their hands. Simmons is obviously a great playmaker but the lack of a prototypical point guard hurt them in the playoffs last year. It doesnít take a ton of analysis to forecast both the Knicks and Nets for sub .500 seasons again.

    Nuggets division + 400? .25 unit

    Currently OTB and will adjust the price when it comes back up. Denver missed the playoffs by one game last year but only three games separated them from division winner and three seed Portland. OKC (49.5), Utah (49.5), and Denver (47.5) all have similar projected season win total expectations this year while Portland has dropped (42). Millsap is a four time All-Star who missed 44 games last year, Jokic is a darkhorse MVP candidate, and the rest of their young core should continue to improve. They lost Wilson Chandler but Will Barton is a capable starter and they add Isaiah (questionable to start the year due to his hip) to replace Barton as the sixth man. Rookie Michael Porter is a possible X factor but cannot be counted on due to his health and Denverís plan to bring him along slowly.

    Jokic MVP +10000 (bm) .25 unit

    This is Jokicís fourth season and his points, rebounds, and assists jumped up in both year two and year three. Last year he had ten triple doubles behind only Westbrook, Lebron, and Simmons. The Nuggets were sixth in the NBA at 110 points per game last year and may well be even higher this year. As noted above Denver is a legitimate division contender and possible top three seed in the conference. The +10000 price offers great value.

    Ayton ROY +400 (bo) .5 unit

    Ayton is a walking double-double on a Phoenix team that should play a ton of high scoring games. He averaged 14.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in summer league. He averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds last year at Arizona and those numbers wouldíve been even higher if he wasnít playing next to fellow 7-footer Dusan Ristic. Unlike some of the other ROY candidates he is projected to be a starter.

    Wendell Carter ROY +1803 (pin) .25 unit

    Coach Hoiberg has said that the center spot will be an open competition and expect Carter to play big minutes sooner rather than later. He averaged 14.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks while garnering first team summer league honors. Carter was not one of the more talked about players on last yearís Duke team featuring guys like Bagley, Grayson Allen, and Gary Trent but he actually had the best three point percentage (41%) among all those guys. He averaged 13.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks, in only 26.9 minutes per game at Duke.

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    Nuggets division is back up at +400 at bo so I will use that for record keeping. It is available as high as 450 (bov) if you can shop around. Also regarding the Celtics division play I mentioned "adding Irving and Hayward" when it would've been more appropriate to say "getting Irving and Hayward back healthy" as Hayward was out in the first game but Irving did play 60 games and then missed the end of the regular season and the postseason.

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    Two props for opening night from bov

    Ben Simmons under 17 rebounds and assists -125

    Ben Simmons under 34.5 points rebounds assists -125

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    Props 0-2, -2.5

    Derozan Over 7.5 rebounds assists -120 (bov)

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    Props 1-2, -1.5

    WIZARDS minus 1.5 / Raptors

    Kawhi expected to rest tonight. Dwight Howard is questionable for the Wiz. My guess is he plays some minutes as he has been practicing.

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    NBA 0-1, -1.1
    Props 1-2, -1.5

    TJ Warren Over 14 pts -115 (bov)

    He's 3-0 vs 14 so far this year. Don't expect his torrid 3-pt % to continue at the same pace but still 14 pts is not a huge number for him particularly since the LA/PHO game has the nights highest total at 238.

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    NBA 0-1, -1.1
    Props 1-3, -2.65

    Hield Over 14.5 pts -125 (bov) 4-1 vs this number so far this year and it has helped that Bogdanovic is out. The game has the night's highest total at 236.5

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    NBA 0-1, -1.1
    Props 2-3, -1.65

    NCAA Futures:

    Nevada NCAA championship +1200 (bo)

    6-foot-7 SR Cody Martin is a point forward who was the MW DPOY and while averaging 6.7 apg. His brother 6-7 SR Cody Martin was the MW POY (18.9 ppg). Versatile SR SF Jordan Caroline averaged 17.7 ppg. Five star freshman Jordan Brown is 6-11, 210 lbs. and should be the new PF (23.5 ppg/ 13.1 rpg high school í17-18). SR ODU graduate transfer Trey Porter should be the new center (13.2 ppg /6.2 rpg/ 1.3bpg í17-18). SR PG Lindsay Drew will hopefully be back after suffering an Achilles injury and he brings great defense and leadership. They add a number of other key transfers; Wagner combo guard SR Corey Henson (3 year starter, 14.6 ppg Ď16-17), Portland trans combo guard (though 5-10) JR Jazz Johnson (15.8 ppg , .415 3 pt % in 16-17), Omaha SR SF/PF Treíshawn Thurman (13.8 ppg /7.8 rpg í16-17), and finally Bryant JR SG Nisre Zouzoua (20.3 ppg Ď16-17). They also add another big body in 6-11, 210 lb. freshman KJ Hymes who had offers from USC, OK, UVA and more.

    Kansas NCAA championship +800 (bo) 0.5 unit

    After having stellar point guards the last two years itís all about the frontcourt this year for the Jayhawks. The key newcomer is Memphis transfer PF Dedric Lawson (19.2 ppg/9.9 rpg/3.3 apg /2.1 bpg 2016-17) who sat out last year. JR center Udoka Azubuike is a force in the post (13 ppg/7.0 rpg/1.7 bpg); he just turned 19 years old and should continue to improve. 6-5, 210 lb. freshman Quentin Grimes is a consensus Top 10 recruit and will play SG or SF next to returning SR starter Lagerald Vick (12.1 ppg/4.8 rpg). Point guard will be either Cal transfer SO Charlie Moor (12.2 ppg/2.0 rpg/ 3.5 apg/ 1.1 spg in 16í-17) or McDonalds All-American freshman Devon Dotson. Donít discount the addition of Dedric Lawsonís brother K.J who followed him from Memphis (12.3 ppg/8.1 rpg 16-17). Note PF Silvio de Sousa is being withheld pending an internal review of his eligibility.

    Kansas State NCAA championship +10000 (bo) 0.5 unit

    5 starters (and the top 2 reserves) are back from last yearís Elite Eight team. SR PG Kamau Stokes (9.0 ppg/2.5 rpg/3.4 apg/1.2 spg) has struggled with injuries the last two years and could be even better if he stays healthy. Fellow SR backcourt mate Barry Brown (15.9 ppg/3.1 rpg/3.2 apg/1.8 spg) was 2nd team All-B12 and made the all league defensive team. JR SF Xavier Sneed (11.1 ppg/5.1 rpg/1.6 spg) put up 22 points and 9 rebounds in the tournament win against Kentucky and an ESPN article called him the teamís best NBA prospect. JR PF Makol Mawien is known for his defense (1.1 bpg) but he scored 29 points in the Big 12 tournament loss to Kansas. SR C Dean Wade (16.2 ppg/6.2 rpg/2.7 apg/1.5 spg) shot 44% from downtown. Wade missed the entire NCAA tournament except for 8 minutes against Kentucky due to a foot injury. SO guard Cartier Diarra (40% three pointers) should be their sixth man and started 22 games last year while Stokes was injured. They add in the top JUCO PF in the country (according to 247Sports) in JR Austin Trice who should help in the rebounding department.

    Auburn NCAA championship +4000 (bo and BM) .25 unit

    The Tigers tied Tennessee for the regular season SEC championship and beat Charleston in the first round of the NCAA tournament before falling to Clemson. They are led by a strong SR backcourt made up of PG Jared Harper (13.2 ppg/5.4 apg/ 1.2 spg) and SG Bryce Brown (15.9 ppg/ 1.0 spg). Harper earned second team SEC honors while Brown was first team and coach Pearl says he is one of best on ball defenders in the country. JR SF Daniel Purifoy (11.5 ppg/4.7 rpg/1.4 spg í16-17) didnít play last year because of the FBI investigation and will be suspended the first 9 games this year. The frontcourt also features great defense with SR PF Horace Spencer (1.3 bpg/1.1 spg), JR C Austin Wiley (1.3 bpg, also DNP last year due to FBI investigation. A former 5 star recruit Pearl said Wiley has a chance to be one of the best big men in the SEC if not the country. JR forward Anfernee Mclemore avg 2.7 bpg in just 19.7 minutes last year and shot .391 from three point land. They also add VCU transfer JR Samir Doughty who can play both guard spots. Note to start the year Wiley is dealing with a sprained foot and Doughty a sprained ankle.

    Oregon NCAA championship +3850 (BM) 0.25 unit
    Oregon Over 12.5 -120 conference wins (BM) 0.5 unit

    JR PG Payton Pritchard (14.5 pgg/3.8rpg /4.8 apg/1.4 spg) leads a backcourt that adds SR A&M corpus-Christi transfer Eham Amin who led division 1 in steals in 2016-17. The Ducks add two 5 star freshman in SF Louis King (though he is still recovering from a torn meniscus) and 7-foot-2 center Bol Bol (son of Manute). SR PF Paul White rounds out the likely starting group and SO PF/C Kenny Wooten led the Pac-12 in blocks last year. It looks like a down year for Arizona (at least for their standards) and the Ducks should be slight favorites over UCLA to win the Pac-12 and improve on their 10-8 conference record last year by 3 or 4 games.

    Kansas State Over 10 -126 conference wins (BM) 2 units

    The Wildcats may not break the Jawhawks conference championship streak but they should be the second best team and reach double-digit wins without too much trouble after going 10-8 last year.

    Duke under 13 -115 conference wins (BM) 0.5 unit

    The Blue Devils have amazing individual talent and itís not out of the question that three of their freshman (Barrett, Williamson, Reddish) are the top three picks in next yearís draft. PF Williamson is probably the most well-known due to his dunking exploits but 6-7 SG Barrett is the more likely #1 pick. However there is only one basketball to share amongst the youngsters and the offense will be run by another freshman in Tre Jones (Tyusí younger brother) who was unsurprisingly considered by many the #1PG prospect. The ACC schedule will be a gauntlet again in a league featuring at least six other Top 25 caliber teams in Virginia, UNC, FSU, Clemson, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech. Duke has won 13, 11, and 11 conference games the last three years and somewhere between 10-13 looks about right again.

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    I think st john , my local team is going to do really well this year , they started to play pretty good late and they beat duke and vill back to back , not an easy task , i think it carries over this year .kenpom has them 9-9 in conf, not that i use any of his stats but still.
    His projections in the losses are very close , they are going to win more of those then you think with the addition of heron , him and ponds are going to do work...
    like nevada , seems everyone else does to .

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    Two for Tuesday from bov

    Nance Over 16.5 pts reb -115

    Saric under 14.5 pts -125

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    I think st john , my local team is going to do really well this year , they started to play pretty good late and they beat duke and vill back to back , not an easy task , i think it carries over this year .kenpom has them 9-9 in conf, not that i use any of his stats but still.
    His projections in the losses are very close , they are going to win more of those then you think with the addition of heron , him and ponds are going to do work...
    like nevada , seems everyone else does to .
    Heron is a key addition but their frontcourt probably holds them back, particularly a lack of inside scoring. Ponds is dynamic and as you noted they had some impressive wins last year but their guards are really going to have to carry them. I think another New York team to watch is Syracuse. They've got 5 starters back and arguably their best player Brissett was a freshman last year and it will be interesting to see if he is even better this year. Nevada is definitely not flying under the radar this year. I like them even better than Gonzaga as far as non-Power 5 contenders.

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    The NBA is continuing to follow MLB's lead about pacing/resting players for the regular season. The Raptors have agreed not to play KLeonard in back-back games. He's out tonight.
    Betting this league @11/10 on a daily basis can be hazardous to your BR.

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    NUGGETS minus 4 / Jazz

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    You canít beat the NBA that GTD is such BS. the other night or last night whatever your telling me AD didnít know he wasnít playing. Itís a BS guessing game. There is one way to give yourself a shot and itís the only way I play it and thatís Live Betting. I do it only with home teams looking for a number and if I donít get that number I pass the game and it doesnít bother me at all. The only thing it takes up a lot time and if your a volume bettor itís next to impossible.

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    NBA 1-1, -0.1
    Props 3-4, -1.8

    Kentucky minus 1 / Duke @Indianapolis

    Was hoping for plus 1 or 2 but I don't think we'll see it. It dropped from minus 1 to pick at pinny and then quickly went back to pk -117, and pk-124

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