Betting Talk

NFL Home Field Advantage Discussion

yung_keeksyung_keeks Junior Member
edited September 2018 in Sports Betting
I'm curious to get some opinions on NFL home field advantage and how much it should be weighted in the context of power ratings/projected spreads.

Generally speaking it seems like New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Minnesota have strong home field advantages while the LA Chargers and Miami Dolphins are at the other end of the spectrum. While that may just be an uninformed narrative, it seems like that is a commonly held opinion and I think there is merit to certain teams like New Orleans and Atlanta.

Conversely, I listened to Cade Massey on a podcast the other day and he suggested each team 2.5 points for home field rather nonchalantly. Perhaps an average baseline is more predictive and stable than weighting teams high/low (i.e. New Orleans vs. LA Chargers) ?

Just thinking out loud here but thought it made for a reasonable discussion and I'm interested in hearing some thoughts on the subject.

Comments

  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    I use Stubhub.com, for every 20 dollars the cheapest ticket is going for counts for 1 point on the spread. It measures the fan intensity
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