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    Default Football 2018

    NFL

    Rams to win division -175

    After winning the division last year by two games over Seattle the Rams got even better this offseason adding the likes of Cooks, Peters, and Suh to name a few. Hopefully they can get Aaron Donald signed sooner rather than later. The Seahawks keep trending in the wrong direction with Baldwin saying his knee will not be 100% this year and KJ Wright now with his own knee issues. Arizona gets David Johnson back but still looks like a sub .500 team. A full season of Garoppolo certainly improves the 49ers but I do not believe they are a playoff team.

    Jets under 6 wins -120

    Darnold may or may not be the future but he was surrounded by talent at USC last year and still struggled at times. Aside from quarterback the Jets offense will be led by less than intimidating players like Bilal Powell and Robby Anderson. There is also a new offensive coordinator trying to put it all together. Head coach Todd Bowles is on the hot seat. The defensive line and the secondary may be the worst in the league outside of Indianapolis. Outside of winnable games vs. Miami, Cleveland, Indy, Buffalo and Denver the schedule is challenging. 7 wins seems like a lot here.

    Colts under 7 wins +135

    A healthy Andrew Luck can be a difference maker but said health remains to be seen. Frank Gore is no longer here to lean on in the run game and Marlon Mack is a questionable number one back. Other than young safety Malik Hooker this is the least talented defense in the NFL. Fellow division foes Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee are legitimate playoff contenders and besides winnable games vs. the Jets, Buffalo, Miami and the Giants, 8 wins seems like a big stretch.

    D.Watson MVP +1800

    He can beat you through the air and on the ground and he was on pace for a huge season last year. If Houston also gets a healthy JJ Watt back they could make a run in the AFC with Watson leading the charge. It doesn’t hurt having DeAndre Hopkins to throw to either.

    S.Barkley ROY +225

    The payout isn’t great but if you’re not sold on the rookie class of quarterbacks winning the award then he’s the most likely winner and priced accordingly. Barkley is a beast both running and receiving. He’ll see a lot of touches and Beckham draws defensive focus away from him.

    A.Callaway ROY +5414 .25 unit

    Given Josh Gordon’s history, and Jarvis Landry more of a possession receiver, Callaway could end up being the best deep threat for the Browns. Cleveland should be playing from behind a lot and throwing a lot. Callaway’s biggest hurdle might be keeping it together off the field. But at better than 50-1 it’s a worthy ticket.

    M.Gallup ROY +7395 .25 unit

    He should slide into the Dez Bryant role. Opposing defenses likely stack the box to stop Elliot in turn opening up some big plays for Gallup. Is Gallup a likely ROY? No. But at 73-to-1 price is he value? Yes.

    Houston to win Super Bowl +2200 .5 unit

    Rams to win Super Bowl +1089 .5 unit

    Week 1 plays:

    DENVER -3 -105

    Keenum at quarterback makes the Broncos much less one dimensional on offense and should rejuvenate wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Promising rookie Bradley Chubb adds to the vaunted Denver pass rush. As noted above Seattle is trending towards a rebuilding season. Offensive line remains a question mark and the secondary is no longer the fearsome unit it has been of late.

    Tenn -1 -105

    Tennessee has to adjust to some new coaches but has the key pieces for another playoff run. Mariota and Derrick Henry are still maturing and getting better. The Titan defense is the key though. Jurrell Casey leads an underrated defensive line and the secondary added Malcolm Butler to an already strong unit. Miami on the other hand, despite the return of Tannehill, is a bottom 5 team. Miami is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator and they will miss their go to receiver in Landry. They lost Suh from the defensive line and linebacker may be the weakest unit on the team with rookie (missed last year due to injury) Raekwon McMillan in the middle.

    NCAA

    Washington State under 6.5 wins -180

    Cougars only return 10 starters and must replace QB Falk. Gardner Minshew transfers in from ECU but likely does not match Falk’s numbers. The defense is breaking in a new DC and lost Pac-12 defensive POY Hercules Mata’afa. The schedule starts with 3 winnable games but they may only be favored in 1 or 2 more (at Ore St, vs Cal) the rest of the way. Getting to a bowl will be a challenge this year and reaching 7 wins even more so.

    Clemson to win ACC -175

    Tigers are again the class of the ACC and the biggest threat to win the BCS championship outside of Tuscaloosa. . QB Bryant should be improved and backup QB Lawrence may be even better. Their starting defensive line is not only full of projected NFL draft picks but possibly all first round picks. Expect another Clemson/Miami ACC championship game and just like last year do not expect Miami to win.

    Week 1 play:

    FSU -7-115

    Florida State has a new coach and only returns 12 starters but the biggest difference this year will be having an experienced quarterback. After Deondre Francois was injured in last year’s opener true freshman James Blackman was forced into duty which stifled the talented running back duo of Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick. On defense end Brian Burns leads one of the best defensive lines in the country. After a disappointing 7-6 2017, the Seminoles should more resemble the teams that went 47-7 from ’13-’16. Virginia Tech is now down to 11 returning starters after WLB Mook Reynolds was dismissed. The Hokies also lost both projected starting cornerbacks recently as Adonis Alexander entered the supplemental draft and Jeremy Webb was lost to an Achilles injury. Sophomore quarterback Josh Jackson accounted for 26 touchdowns last year but the Hokie offense lacks playmakers. Florida State should have a big edge on special teams. Tech lost their two most difficult matchups last year by double digits (14 vs Clem, 18 at Mia). This year they start with their toughest matchup.

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    MISSOURI -16.5 / Wyoming

    Missouri started slow last year at 1-6 but reeled off six straight wins before losing their bowl game. Six of their wins lat year came by 28+ points.
    They lost their #1 receiver J'Mon Moore but return 1st team SEC receiver Emmanuel Hall, Jonathon Johnson (6 TDs last year), and 2nd team SEC tight end Albert Okwuegbunam along with 1st team SEC quarterback Drew Lock. Wyoming had a nice win against a bad New Mexico State team but struggled against stiffer competition against Washington State. Redshirt freshman quarterback Tyler Vander Wall was just 8/20 for 67 yards and an interception last week. He will need to have success passing for Wyoming to hang with Missouri and that should be a challenge particularly on the road.

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    Adding one play for NFL week 1:

    MINNESOTA minus 6 / San Fran

    Vikings were 7-1 at home last year and all 7 wins were by 8+ points. They should be even more talented this year bringing in Cousins, getting the talented Dalvin Cook back from injury, and having a healthier Latavius Murray. I'm not as high on the 49ers as some people are despite their 5-0 finish to last season. They also just lost their #1 running back Mckinnon to a torn ACL.

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    NCAA 0-1, -1.15

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    Prop play for Thursday NFL

    Calvin Ridley under 3 receptions -135 (bov)

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    NFL 1-1-1, -0.1
    NCAA 1-1. -0.15
    Props 1-0, +1

    NFL Week 2 play:

    REDSKINS -5 / Colts

    Andrew Luck looked good in his return but the Colts will likely be one dimensional on offense even when Marlon Mack returns to the backfield. They attempted 53 passes compared to only 23 rushing attempts against the Bengals even though they led much of the game. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable this week.

    Alex Smith looked comfortable with his new teammates spreading the ball around to 7 different Redskins receivers and completing 13 passes in a row at one point. A healthy Jordan reed at tight end can be a difference maker this year after he was plagued by injuries last season. Adrian Peterson looked like his old self and Chris Thompson remains a dangerous passing down back. Washington’s defense held Arizona to 213 yards of offense and their only points allowed came in the closing minutes with the game already decided.

    The over 45.5 also seems worthy of consideration given the Colts up-tempo, pass heavy offense, and weak defense but prefer the side rather than the total here.

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    Prop play for Lsu/AUBURN

    Kam martin over 57.5 rush yds -120 (bov)

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    Prop play Indy/WASH

    Luck over 35.5 pass attempts -120 (BM)

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    Adding Houston -3 -120

    Clowney is out but Deandre Hopkins is in. More importantly Tennessee is missing both their left tackle and their right tackle and reports are Mariota is clearly not 100% If he even plays

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    NFL 1-3-1, -2.4
    NCAA 1-1, -0.15
    Props 1-2, -1.4

    USC minus 3.5 / Wash St

    Cougars have looked good so far but have played possibly the softest opening three game schedule of any team. They were down 19-13 late in the third quarter at Wyoming before pulling away late. They led Eastern Washington just 35-24 late in the 3rd quarter last week before again pulling away late. They were aided by a plus four turnover margin in that game.

    USC rush defense has been porous but their pass defense is only giving up 5.8 ypa which is key against the air raid offense. Despite losing by 14 on the road against a top ten Stanford team they were very competitive but couldn’t overcome a minus two turnover margin. They led Texas 14-3 on the road last week before melting down and giving up 34 unanswered. Expect the young Trojans team to play much better at home.

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    EAGLES minus 6 / Indy

    Going to fade the Colts again. They only had 281 yards of offense last week but went three for three in the red zone all of which were touchdowns while the Redskin offense managed just three field goals and missed another. Eagles are thin at receiver but still have Ertz and Agholor and can throw to their runnning backs. Wentz is back, reportedly looked great at practice, and should be 100% as the Eagles were likely being extra cautious with him.

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    Two props for Sunday:

    Cousins NO INT +105 (bm)

    Tevin Coleman Over 68.5 rush yards +105 (bm)

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    another prop:


    Cousins under 9.5 rush yds -115 (bov)

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    NFL 1-4-1, -3.5
    NCAA 1-2 -1.25
    Props 2-4 -2.4

    LSU -11.5 / Miss

    Oregon -3 / CAL

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    Sunday NFL props all from bov

    Rodgers NO INT -135

    G.Allison Under 4 rec -125

    T.Coleman under 3 rec -125

    T.Lockett under 4 rec -130

    M.Lynch Over 57.5 rush -115

    Rivers NO INT -115

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