Betting Talk

Football 2018

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Comments

  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited December 2018
    will update record when I get a chance...

    prop from BM for Mich St/Ore

    J.Redd under 42.5 receiving yards
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited December 2018
    NFL 3-6-2, -3.95
    NCAA 8-6-1, +1.05
    Props 24-18-1, +2.78
    Futures 3-2, +0.2 with ROY and SB plays pending

    Redd under was -115 btw
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    Prop from bov for Iowa/Msu

    Fitzgerald under 273.5 pass and rush yards -120
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    DALLAS minus 2 -115 / Seattle
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    NFL 3-6-3, -3.95
    NCAA 10-6-1, +3.05
    Props 25-19-1, +2.63
    Futures 3-3, -0.3 with more pending

    Prop from bov for Clemson/Alabama

    T.Lawrence plus 1.5 completions -120 / Tua Tagovailoa
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    prop from bov for Clemson/Alabama

    Josh Jacobs under 82.5 rush and receiving yards -110
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    Clemson plus 5 / Alabama
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    NFL 3-6-3, -3.95
    NCAA 11-6-1, +4.05
    Props 26-20-1, +2.43
    Futures 3-3, -0.3 with more pending
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    Prop from bo for Rams/SAINTS

    Littleton over 7.5 tackles -105
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    prop from bov for Rams/SAINTS

    Suh under 4.5 tkl -115
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    prop from bov for Patriots/CHIEFS

    Hitchens over 8 tackles -115
  • fishboomfishboom Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    NE,
    What do think of Brady O/U 24.5 passes.
    Thanks
    boom
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    fishboom wrote: »
    NE,
    What do think of Brady O/U 24.5 passes.
    Thanks
    boom

    Short answer is I think its about where it should be so I would pass. Probably comes down to who you think wins. If you think KC wins I’d lean over and if you think Pats win I’d lean under.

    Brady was 7-10 under vs 24.5 this year, 4-4 on the road. He was 7-6-4 vs 24 including 24 in the first meeting. Hard to call 24 a “key” number here but I’d feel better about the over if it was 24; but seeing as its 24.5 at bov, 25.5 at bo and 25.5 over 30 at sb, while BM hasn’t posted yet, I doubt they’ll be a 24 around tomorrow. My expectations for handicapping the Pats in general are don’t expect anything because you never know what Belichick is gonna do. KC is giving up 5.0 ypc and while the Pats have an offense to win a shootout here I think Belichick would prefer to establish the run and keep Mahomes and co. off the field. Defensively they’ve made limiting Kelce a priority in the past but given the way Tyreek Hill burned them the last game I would imagine he gets some extra attention…maybe make Mahomes dink and dunk all game but I don’t know—no doubt the Chiefs offense has kept opposing coaches up at night this year. I’m not playing the side. I have a lot respect for KC’s offense and the Pats are a different animal away from Foxboro but its hard to lay points against Belichick and Brady. If I had to play a Brady over I would probably eat the -135 price and take him over 275.5 yards at bov. He was 11-6 over 275.5 this year, 5-3 on the road, and had 340 in the first meeting.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    boom as I re-read my response now I kind of had you taking Brady over in my head, and as I said I'd choose to go over yards, but if you were in fact leaning under, i'd go under 25.5 completions and hope the Pats get a lead or KC manages to pressure Brady into enough misfires.
  • fishboomfishboom Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    NE,
    Was asking your valued opinion. Heard an interesting weather fact today that passing yards go up approximately 2% which is statistically not too significant. But rushing yards increase approximately 7%, which is significant. This makes tend toward the under with Brady. My sticking point is that he, and the Pats offense scheme has been involving short passes to the RBs. I think that the opinion, as you pointed out, that the number is just about right and I’ll probably avoid,
    Thanks
    boom
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    That was a wild Sunday. Rams opened minus 1.5 against the Pats at BM and it now sits at plus 1.5 -105. Westgate opened Rams minus 1 and moved to plus 1.5. I don't have a strong feeling either way but considering Gurley does not seem healthy I am going to hedge the Rams Super Bowl future (0.5 unit at +1089) with the Pats moneyline -125 (pin) for 1.5 units. I'm not saying take the Pats, and I will be rooting for the Rams, but all things considered it seems wise to at least lock in a small profit.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    NFL 3-6-3, -3.95
    NCAA 11-6-1, +4.05
    Props 29-20-1, +5.43
    Futures 3-3, -0.3 with more pending

    Pats hedge is to win 1.5 units and will be graded as a hedge with the futures, not as an NFL play. Gurley claims he is not injured and CJ Anderson has been playing well but you have to think if Gurley was 100% he would've seen more touches against the Saints. Gurley's health is probably not the deciding factor in the Super Bowl but instead it comes down to the Rams DL. If they can pressure Brady with the front four, which Donald/Suh/Brockers/Fowler are certainly capable of, than I like their chances. The crowd noise will be less of a factor than it was in New Orleans which also helps the Rams. No opinion on the total as takes just one slow/er half or even quarter to go under the large number (currently 57.5/58) but it would not be a surprise to see a 34-31 final. If the line goes to plus 3 for the Rams there is a case to be made for the dog but I'll pass and sit on the futures/hedge and look for some props when they come out.
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited January 2019
    Super Bowl prop from bov

    A.Donald under 4.5 tackles -115
  • NortheastNortheast Senior Member
    edited February 2019
    NFL 3-6-3, -3.95
    NCAA 11-6-1, +4.05
    Props 29-21-1, +4.28
    Futures 5-7, +1.45

    NFL avg CLV 0.33
    NCAA avg CLV 0.76

    CLV calculated using the BM close
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